| Note:
Not all stock links will work as some of the aforementioned stocks
are removed from my public list.
April 20th: Greenspan
set the tone for the selling on the non-too surprising revelation
that interest rates will rise sooner rather than later. His comments
should be viewed as bullish if (as he suggests), deflation is not
a concern. What the market *doesn't* want is a repeat of the situation
that hurt the Nikkei for so long - and a return to the secular bear
market. It could be this assessment that sets up the fundamentals
for the market double bottom. I am not sure we are totally out of
the woods (wrt to deflation), but if his proclaimation sets up another
8-12 months of upside I will be very happy. The markets reacted
to the 'news' in typical fashion selling off on heavier volume (but
volume was relatively light compared to January). Today's volume
counts as distribution, but only with respect to recent volume -
in the context of our consolidation,
todays volume was light. Double bottom's are back in play in all
markets, NASDAQ,
NASDAQ
100 and S&P
(similarly in tracker stocks, QQQ,
SPY,
DIA).
Yesterday's rallies never followed through into prior congestion
- bouncing off last week's resistance. Market teachnicals are weakening
- but are well above levels of mid-March lows. Strong double bottoms
emerge from bullish divergence in technicals, so keep an eye on
these on test of price lows. Secondary indicators remain in near
term down trends, and are likely to enter new "bear phases",
but such weakness will be temporary (bear traps). With a bit of
luck, I will have returned before the market bottoms.
Individual stocks were largely
quiet. Precious metals entered the next stage of their downside
as shorts/bears keep a tight hold of the reins. GDVI
broke past $0.29 resistance, ending the day close to its highs ($0.32),
but there was a relatively large spread in the bid and ask, and
given its parabolic shape - looks suscpetible to a sudden shift
down. I took profits in my own position - the model
portfolio is running a tighter stop ($0.295). ECGI
followed through on heavy volume- the trend of the larger market
keeping a lid on its end-of-day gain. GIGM,
to a lesser extent, attempted a similar move, but there was no volume
to back it up. FNIX
put the brakes on its declines - coming off a low of $0.20, to finish
at $0.29. TASR
sold off hard on disappointing earnings
- setting the tone for the late afternoon selling. Most stocks ended
mixed, many of the recent breakouts suffered bearish set ups, and
are likely to ease up over the course of the week. Low volume pullbacks
in any of these stocks will be attractive. Check the stockchart
public list for such developments - remember to vote daily!
April 19th: Light
volume rallies stemmed the recent outflow of funds. The NASDAQ
may be shaping a double bottom in on
balance volume (favors further upside). Price remained below
last weeks breakdown at 2,039 - but an upside volume bounce will
threaten this area as was done in the NASDAQ 100 today. The NASDAQ
100 is sitting right on resistance from its breakdown point.
Upside follow through tomorrow will push it into the upper range
of congestion, reducing the chance of a double bottom. If the NASDAQ
and NASDAQ 100 break 2,079 and 1,508 repsectively, it will negate
the double bottom set up. The S&P
had a quiet day - running into the third day of sideways trading
(with a slight upward bias). In all markets, Tuesday should see
morning strength, and if it can hold against afternoon selling then
the next step of the rally will be in play. Any form of bearish
cloud cover, black candlestick, or bearish
engulfing pattern will end the nascent bounce.
Gold stocks look to have ended
their relief bouces, falling on heavier down volume today. Check
page
2 of the list for further details. However, a number of stocks
on my public list did make breakouts today. Including AMXC,
AXYX,
CVNS
(again!), LIFC,
LRT,
VXGN,
GDVI,
and CPST.
Watch for continued strength in these stocks over the coming days.
Many of the heavily traded stocks featured on page
5 of my list had decent days - although upside volume, relative
to the downside volume of last week, was tame - look for leaders
outside of this group.
April 18th: Markets
weakened Friday on light volume, continuing the downtrend from the
failed gap breakout. Support held above prior congestion (1,988
in NASDAQ,
1,435 in NASDAQ
100, and 1,125 in S&P),
suggesting a near term bounce of 1-2 days will be sooner rather
than later (Monday?? watch futures for lead). The biggest concern
last week were the weekly charts - the NASDAQ
and NASDAQ 100
ending on bearish
evening stars, although the S&P
finished in neutral territory (spinning
top). The theme for this week will be the 50-day SMA will it
remain resistance on its next test? Was last weeks trip below the
line simply a blimp in an over zealous pullback? Interestingly,
breakouts
are still working their way through the market. A number of picks
on page
3 of my stockchart list are close to moving beyond long term
resistance - so all is not doom and gloom, even if sectors that
benefited from the late March rally, eg nanotech and precious metals,
are hurt on April selling.
NASDAQ 100 secondary indicators
remain susceptible to weakness. The $BPCOMPQ,
$NASI,
and $NAA50
are all back below their 5-day EMA lines, and their technicals hold
weak "Bull phases". However, the MACD
of all 3 secondary market indicators, and of the markets, continue
to underline bullish strength by mapping bullish divergences. Lower
moves in the MACDs of the indicators on market weakness should be
watched closely for sudden (bullish) reversals. Although such developments
are not a buy signal per se, they are typical in bottom formations.
All 3 secondary indicators look set to test, at minimum, their near
term lows made in late March - the $BPCOMPQ may make a new low on
this test (below 59), but a bullish divergence should remain in
its MACD reading. The net result of this will be further downside
in the market - so be cautious on buying a 1 or 2 day bounce, wait
for a volume follow through. Bottom fishers should remain on the
sidelines until 1,900 approaches
A number of new stocks have
been added to the public
stockchart list, consequently, some links from prior
posts in April will not work.
Please remember to vote for the list on your daily visit. Every
vote per day counts!
April 16th: Update
to come - Public list features new stocks.
April 15th: Markets
continued their weak form, morning strength quickly changed to steady
selling. The
NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100 closed down on heavy volume - the NASDAQ 100 recording its
first day of distribution since the April 2nd breakout. The NASDAQ
suffered its third day of heavy selling, while the S&P
made a late day rally to close flat overall, trading almost 2.0b
shares - classic churning action, but will the bulls or bears win
the day - swing trade today's highs and lows. CSCO
may be setting the tone here - it lead the March bounce, and is
the first to test March lows - look for overall markets and tracker
indices stocks to follow suit. Weakness in foreign markets has become
more of a concern as investors convert to cash; the ASIAX
fund reversed from multi-year highs, leaving behind a bull trap
at $14.00 - note confirmation of its weakness in the MACD bearish
divergence. The Russian fund, LETRX,
has started its own slide, breaking near term lows in slow stochs
[39,1]. The latter fund has performed strongly over the last 5 months,
but now looks primed for a lengthy consolidation. A slow down in
foreign markets will leave US investors edgy, can domestic demand
sustain the economy? A strengthening dollar may alleviate inflation
concerns, but it won't encourage foreign investment.
On my public stockchart list
there were a number of key movers. DYIIE,
the once favorite stock of Investors Business Daily when
I started playing the market (2001), hit an all time high of $27.85
last year, lost 45% today to close at $3.90 on news of its delistment
to the pink sheets - expect this to tumble to penny status until
it gets its books in order. All stocks cycle - don't lose sight
of this - homeland security stock buyers beware. ECGI
was hit bt profit taking after an early morning burst to $1.11 -
just needs the market to co-operate (ie. stop selling off!) before
this one flies. NAVR
was similarly hit - this stock joins the ranks of my personal portfolio
- the gap down was disconcerting, but if it can hold $8.00 over
the next few days it will trigger a nice run to $15 (at least that
is what I am looking for - biased opinion!). PETS
followed through on yesterday action, tacking on an additional 5.7%
on increased volume. VVUS
eased back to $6.00 on low volume, currently sits at 20-day SMA.
Technicals suggest it will dip below $5.50 support - if it does,
particularly on an intraday move (ie same day close above $5.50)
it could be a very attractive long term hold for later this year
- Sep $5
calls currently trading at $1.80 from the ask. Apr 22nd is VVUS
earnings announcement, recent price action looks to me like manipulation
to grab cheap shares before a positive earnings report, profitable
last 2 Q's on increased revenue - sexual
dysfunction play. FXEN
is making a stand having (just about) closed its January breakout
gap, buy a strong open and keep stops tight - this is a 'catch a
falling knife' play. CVNS
fell just shy of yesterday's $12.05 breakout, closing at $11.86
- its gotta break soon, but plenty of whipsaw if trying to buy on
the pivot price (cautious play is to buy a break of $13). LIFC
continues its see-saw action, reversing a bearish set up into a
bullish set up - volume looks to confirm the bullish side, pivot
price is $9.30. RATE
is finding support around $14.00 - a bounce play to $16.50 ($17.50
on strong volume momemtum) is a decent upside play.
Penny lovers will be perked
by the action of CTKH,
gaining 14% on heavy volume - a break of $0.0043 will set up a nice
run to $0.007. In other penny action, the sell off action continued
in MOBL
and IPVO,
but GZFX
and MXDY
showed some decent gains, the former is near a break of $0.135 following
my negative assessment of its price action - Murphy's law.
April 14th:
NASDAQ
and NASDAQ
100 bounced off their 50-day SMA on weak trading. Some upside
follow through can be expected tomorrow, but a cross of the 20-day
SMA over the 50-day SMA looks unlikely. When these two moving averages
test one another will be the time the market tops in a short bounce
(Friday?). The S&P
was less fortunate, closing below its 50-day SMA on heavier trading,
the second day of distribution in a row. A small bounce can be expected,
but it is unlikely to last into next week. Precious metals and precious
metal stocks were sold with enthusiasm, although these stocks are
deeply oversold shor term and look primed for a small bounce. Shorts
will likely cover at this point, looking to renter short on the
'dead cat bounce'. The $BPCOMPQ
followed $NAA50's
lead and crossed below its 5-day EMA, finishing beneath a key resistance
line. Look for $BPCOMPQ technicals to follow suit, but bullish divergences
should develop in MACD, RSI and slow stochs on a loss of near term
lows in the indicator (59.40) - this is typical in a double bottom.
What this means for the market is an extension of its downtrend
- still a couple more weeks of weakness before the summer rally
can start in earnest.
Not all was doom and gloom.
CVNS
continued to pressure resistance, actually closing above the $12.05
pviot resistance for a breakout on modest volume. NAVR
rallied on huge volume - trading almost a fifth of its float, consuming
prior supply and breaking to new 6-month highs ($8.34) on news of
a pact with Riverdeep.
One of yesterdays 'stocks to watch', ECGI,
rallied on huge volume on no apparent news - keep an eye on this
one, trading at $1.00 AH, PnF charts show a price objective of $3.25.
Pink sheet stock, QBID,
added another couple of pennies, but was pegged back in late day
trading to finish at $0.015. Another penny stock to watch is GDVI,
which has traded almost 18 m shares (tso 130m) over the last three
days and looks set for a big move over $0.25, it ended the day at
$0.23. Low key bullish action was noted in STG
- a bullish MACD crossover at resistance of a bullish triangle.
Look for a short term move to $4.60. Money flow is positive, and
PnF charts mark a price target of $8.00. AMWS
was another winner on light trading, breaking a week long sideways
consolidation on modest volume. Should todays move hold tomorrow
(ie. a higher close) then good things can be expected - $2.25 short
term, $3.65 long term, PnF charts give a price target of $6.50.
AXO
completed its three day pullback on low volume - at $3.60 it is
an excellent price - stops on loss of $3.50. The cautionary note
here is a loss of $3.50 has next support at $2.50, so keep stops
relatively tight around $3.50. Upside target price for this is $4.85,
PnF charts price objective is $11.00,
but note the bearish divergence in money flow (remember to keep
stops tight!). EMRG
pulled a bullish inverse hammer at support - similar to ECGI yesterday
- watch morning action for strength. MACD and OBV indicate plenty
of strength, so it could have merit as a buy at $2.10 (todays close).
PETS
shares bounced in modest bounce, closing above near term resistance
for a new 4-week high. MACD trigger line crossed back over its trigger
line - an aggressive buy. However, PnF charts show a double bottom
breakdown, price target here is $7.50.
April 13th: The
NASDAQ
and NASDAQ
100 followed through on their respective 2-day bearish harami
patterns, closing lower on heavier (although not excessive) volume.
It should lead to further downside into options expiry Friday. After
hours INTC news
brought a mixed response, earnings at the low end of expectations
and a slight downward revision of future revenues will not inspire
a fearful market - the charts PnF target of $19 says it all. Todays
leap down should mark the start of a new downtrend channel to retest
mid-March lows (forming a double bottom), longs should be on the
sidelines after todays action - only buying on a break of 2,075
in the NASDAQ, 1,510 in the NASDAQ 100, and 1,150 in the S&P.
GTC orders at mid-March lows should set up aggressive long entries.
Downside volume should be light (no day over 20% of the 60-day EMA
daily volume), although the rate of loss can be relatively steep
(a string of 20-30 point losses in the NASDAQ would not be surprising).
The important events to watch for are bullish divergences in the
MACD tigger line/MACD histogram - especially in secondary indicators
($BPCOMPQ,
$NASI,
and $NAA50
- the $NASI
is likely to mark the clearest bullish divergence as this is the
strongest secondary market indicator). As always, there will be
stocks that will defy this trend, eg. ARTX,
so not all will be doom and gloom. The retest of mid-March lows
will be complete on a 1.5%+ rally off volume in excess of 20% average
daily volume - should this happen tomorrow (unlikely), it will set
up strong bullish piercing patterns - a reason in itself to go long
even after today's woes. The overall picture for this year remains
a bullish consolidation, upside breakout, and (now) a retest of
breakout lows.
Precious metals and mining
stocks were ther real losers today. Most of which look excellent
short candidates on relief bounces. The metals look set for some
downtime lasting a couple of months at least, to form new bases.
Silver stocks like SIL
have had some very heavy down volume spikes over the last few weeks
which will act as supply into rallies at these price areas. Yesterdays
strong performers had a mixed day;
GIGM, NWRE,
and XYBR
all reversed yesterdays gains, while much maligned penny stocks
SKVY,
MOBL,
and QBID soared.
Stocks like
WAVX vaulted on
no apparent news.
CVNS
made another attempt at a break of $12.00, but was pegged back on
late trading. CRED
maintained its strong form, closing up on light trading. VXGN
added a further 2.8% on brisk trading - threatening $12.50 resistance.
Low key, bullish activity was also noted in DYIIE,
DSCO,
ECGI,
EMRG
and EAG
- nothing to jump in with two feet, but good enough for a watch
list.
April 12th: The
NASDAQ
and NASDAQ
100 appeared to confirm Thursday' sell off with a weak relief
bounce on low volume - ending the day with bearish
haramis [note in the description of this candlestick pattern
"a rare, and ominous version of this pattern is a long black
candlestick followed by a small white candlestick" - caveat
buyer]. The S&P
fared better - closing in the upper range of Thursday's spinning
top - favoring the bulls, but volume, again, was light. The S&P
may be shaping a bull flag, should this pattern break upside then
a 60 point rally from the lows of the pattern is a strong possibility.
The secondary indicator, $BPCOMPQ
broke to the upside its trendline resistance, but slow stochs did
not react to the move and remain just a few points above the triggered
bull phase - in addition, its relative strength remains below the
mid-line 50 mark. The $NASI
continued its good form and is just shy of resistance c45 - some
downside action is likely at this point. Such downside will likely
be supported by the $VXN
which gapped down today and looks primed for a bullish island reversal
(bearish for the market). Small cap, OTC security
(hint of 'security') stocks were the real flavor of the day - possible
rotation in the sector? TASR
and VISG suffered
from late day selling - so not all security stocks benefitted. Silver
stocks were weak all round, breaking down from recent consolidations,
pre-empting a siginificant pullback in the precious metal?
A handful of stocks on my
public list made reasonable moves, or look primed for something
better. GIGM
vaulted 28% on huge volume on earnings,
news of an acquisition,
and reported 16% stake
held by MSFT. A bullish ascending triangle is developing in IVAN,
but volume remains light - watch for upside move to $3.40, it closed
the day at $2.62. SKVY
lept 35% on mixture of Wal-mart
news and as a potential security play. ABP
made a low volume rise, completing its bull flag breakout retest
of lows. EAG
follow through off lows on some nice volume, currently trading at
its first resistance pointl of $1.50 - a break of this has next
resistance at $2.05. NWRE
followed through from its breakout Thursday on heavy volume - look
for the breakdown gap to close. OMNI
bullish morning star may complete its pullback from its initial
move over $7.40, but watch how prices react close to $8.00 where
1.5m+ trapped bulls lurk (and are ready to sell into any rally around
this mark). VVUS
sits 1 cent below resistance of $6.50, with strong demand over $6.20
- will this break upside tomorrow? XYBR
continued its Thursday breakout, adding another 5% to move to $1.37.
Still plenty of upside room to $1.50 in this. Volume excellent.
YPNT
gained 22% on average volume to sit below $5.00 resistance, a break
of the latter should see a move to $10.00. ADOT
begun its own relief bounce - look for downside tomorrow, sell into
morning strength. MOBL
advanced an additional 22% on strong volume - look for parabolic
run to $0.50 but is very high risk buy at this point. A more speculative
(but less risky) penny play is MXDY,
some decent volume buying between $0.20-0.25 with resistance at
$0.40 and strong support at $0.175, but nasty financials
and weak technicals will necessitate a positive news shot in the
arm.
Some stocks look have completed
some of their recent ascents or look toppish; CCI:
bearish harami after 9 days of gains, CNXT:
break of rising channel, BGO:
failed bounce off lower BB band, PAAS:
break of rising channel, SIRI:
bearish harami, QQQ:
bearish harami, SPY:
bearish harami, DIA:
bearish harami - all three tracker indices showing distinct bearish
patterns, short term downside move of a few days length should happen
tomorrow or Wednesday. ADNW:
low volume doji=weak bounce, supply concerns over $3.25. AKS:
bearish black candlestick. BCON:
bearish cloud cover - relief rally complete. IIP:
bearish black candlestick - time to retest $1.30 near term lows
- buy pullback. PETS
traded down on light volume and lies just shy of a loss of $10.00.
GZFX
lost 10% negating a bullish-2-bar reversal at support. Look for
loss of $0.10 support. IPVO
broke is sharp rising channel, favoring a move back to $1.00 support.
April 9th:
YHOO vaulted on
heavy trade, gapping over prior resistance. The market, by in large,
ignored YHOO earnings and looked to geopoltical concerns for guidance.
Few traders were willing to hold a position over the long weekend,
selling into morning strength to leave the NASDAQ
and NASDAQ
100 a few points above its Wednesday's close. The S&P
closed just shy of its Wednesday close. However, volume was light
in all markets.
Monday morning should follow
on Friday's weakness (look to futures
for guidance), threatening to close the large breakout gaps in each
of the tech indices. This will be the start of the downleg towards
the consolidation double bottom. Upside volume, with the exception
of Apr 2nd, has been too light to suggest a V-bottom. DIA
bounced off the (former) 1-yr support-now-resistance line on a large
bearish engulfing pattern. Volume declined from the early March
sell off, never bullish in a sharp rally. The SPY
is in a similar position and looks set to correct after two days
of heavier selling. The NDX
has replicated the large (bearish) black candlestick of its parent
tech index setting up a potential island reversal for a move to
$35.50. Secondary indicators vary in strength; the $NASI
is in a confirmed bounce, but the $BPCOMPQ
is struggling to progress having switched into a bull phase. The
slow stochs [39,1] of this indicator look particularly feeble as
the indicator tests a 3-month resistance trendline - should this
reverse back into a bear phase then expect $NASI to follow suit.
The NYSE versions of these indicators ($NYSI,
$BPSPX) draw
a similar picture.
Quiet trading left many stocks
unharmed by the selling. CHS
was not so lucky, losing over 4% in heavy volume on a sales
report. It lies at support of a 3 1/2 month rising channel. RATE
lost a further 4% to end any hopes of a handle-on-handle consolidation.
CCI
broke to new highs, but volume was below average - this was the
9th consequtive day of gains for the stock, reason enough to take
profits from my calls. SIRI
took a breather from its recent run - a large bearish engulfing
pattern likely to suppress prices for the next couple of weeks before
$4.20 is broken to the upside. Pullbacks in this stock (especially
close to $3.30) should be bought. AQNT
rode the wave of YHOO strength,
moving sharply higher on heavy volume, placing it well inside bounce
fib retracements. It lies just shy of a gap to $12.60. Jun
$10.00 calls at $1.80 look an attractive play for this gap.
IIP
stepped up from a small handle on light volume. Should be good to
reach $2.10. NAVR
negated its Wednesday weakness, closing well inside a supply zone
and just shy of an important breakout - keep this one on the watch
lists. Another stock worthy of attention after months of neglect
is NWRE,
passing near term resistance of $10.85 on heavier volume. Like AQNT,
a large gap to $13.60 looms into range. Jun
$10.00 calls at $1.90 look good value. REDF
continued in strong form - vaulting 16% on heavy volume. XYBR
made an important break of near term resistance ($1.22) and looks
set for a move to $1.50 resistance on homeland
security related news. MOBL
was the bright star in the pennies - chewing up Wednesday weakness
on a 27% gain, looking fresh for new highs beyond $0.20, it finished
Thursday at $0.168.
BCON
was the sucker play of the day - watch this relief bounce fail over
the next couple of days.
April 7th:
A quiet market, continuing yesterday's pullback. After hours news
from YHOO should
spark a nice jump tomorrow - although light volume holiday trading
remains the controlling influence for the week. Other than security
issues, TASR,
VISG and IDNX,
there was little of note today.
On my public stockchart list,
GSS
showed some strong buying in the absence of a news announcement.
SSRI
attempted a weak breakout on low volume, ending the day on an indecisive
doji - this could go either way - the next move should be substantial
based on recent narrow trading. CGFW
added an extra 2.93% on average volume to its recent bull flag breakout,
negating yesterdays short term bearish top. CVNS
built on yesterdays bullish hammer with an engulfing pattern on
higher volume - a sizable break of $12.00 cannot be far away. LU
showed some flair, closing up on heavier volume - its recent advance
has a good 45 degree angle and strengthening technicals - don't
discount this from making new 52-week highs in the coming months.
SIRI's
heavy volume, black spinning top, at resistance should put an end
to its rally off the $2.60 double bottom. Look for sideways congestion
to shake weak hands and profit takers before it breaks $4.20. Once
breached, $4.20 should act as major support, GTC buy orders should
then be raised to just above this price level. ADNW
made a successful test of $3.00 support on low volume. Further declines
to this price should be bought - place stops on a loss of $3.00.
AKS
held its recent triangle breakout and is consuming supply above
$6.50, with excellent support down to $6.00. Weekly charts show
a price target of $8.00, but PnF charts suggest a potential target
of $13.00. Look
for value in June $5 calls, ask at $1.75.
AXO
is only a few days away from its breakout of $4.00 - watch closely
for volume cues. LRT
threw in a 2-bar bullish reversal pattern - previous reversals of
similar ilk have gone on to test prior highs, should this do likewise
a quick 10% profit could be made by the nimble. REDF,
although extended - looks ready to gap up again. The original gap
breakout is resilient and sellers have been unable to close it.
From my own portfolio, AAC's
low volume rise is a step in the right direction, but the real test
remains at $1.05, keep on watch lists. CCI
continues its sharp ascent, closing just shy of it near term resistance
on above average volume (it just scrapped a new 52-week high). While
CCI trades at resistance it is best kept on a watch list until $14.00
is broken on heavy volume (2.5m+). PWAV
closed at the highs of todays range - negating the short term top
marked by last Friday's black candlestick (and likely my covered
call play with it).
Flying under the radar is
beat down MXO,
sold off heavily on STX
dissapointing
earnings, but failed to make a new price low. Bullish divergence
in MACD remains, and its chart is in much better shape than its
competitor with decent support around $7.00
- but keep stops tight, PnF charts give a price objective of $4.00.
Former darling of the bear market, NWRE,
continued to show very strong technical strength. Today's hammer
could mark the last opportunity to grab shares under $10.85 before
closing the gap to $13.50. In the penny sector, IPVO
continued its see-saw gain, tacking on 12.61% on brisk trade - its
up almost 50% from the highs of the prior congestion.
April 6th: Finally back
online! First signs of a pullback on bearish inside days in NASDAQ,
NASDAQ
100 and S&P
500. Ideally, I would like to see this pullback continue into
Friday on (holiday) low volume, bringing each market to 2,010, 1,145
and 1,125 respectively, before turning back upwards next week. Although
a technically bearish day, plenty of stocks pushed on to make decent
gains. DYIIE
rose sharply higher on news
of restating earnings for FY2001 and FY2002. This badly beaten stock
has plenty of upside room to $15.70 resistance having closed at
$9.14 (up 68%). MOBL
enjoyed its day in the sun on no news with an important technical
breakout on heavy volume. The stock closed at $0.145 (up 45%) and
looks primed for a momemtum run to $0.19-0.20. One of my own pinksheet
portfolio stocks, QBID,
continued in strong form - a test of $0.01 looks a decent play at
this point - riding the gay wave trend. Another portfolio pick,
CCI,
made an important break of near term resistance on heavy volume
on news
of an analyst meeting on Apr 15th - look for new 52-week highs in
the run up to this event. SIRI
continued its rich vein of form - adding an extra 5% after hours
on Chrysler
pact. This could break important resistance of $4.20 and is an excellent
6-month call option play. Other stocks of note today can be found
here.
April 2nd: Jobs report sparked
heavy volume buying in all markets - although individually, stocks
had a mixed day. SUNW
was a big winner on huge volume on MSFT partnership
deal. AKS
negated a bearish inverse hammer earlier this week on strong volume
today. NAVR
made its break from a supply level on modest volume - a follow through
gain on Monday would be very positive. PAAS
continued to build on yesterday's breakout. SSRI
looks poised to make a move upwards following two days of heavy
buying - building on the strength of underlying silver.
The latter is overextended in the short term, so it will be interesting
to see how silver stocks fare once the inevitable pullback kicks
in on the metal. LU,
AMCC,
AXO,
AQNT,
CGFW,
CSCO,
PCS
all had good days - building on the weeks gains.
Unfortunately, a couple of this weeks breakouts
foundered, including RATE,
STG,
and HANS
- or look susceptible to profit taking (CHS,
ADNW,
NT,
PWAV,
SIRI).
Will we see some sell on the news action next week? There should
be some form of pullback after 7 days of solid % gains on minimal
volume. Today was the first heavy volume rally since early January
as the markets headed into supply zones, leaving large gap breakouts
in the NASDAQ,
and NASDAQ
100. Weakness on Monday to close these gaps should morph into
a 3-9 day sideways consolidation to flush out remaining weak hands
and trapped bulls caught by the March washout. Sideways/down action
may be used by traders to grab cheap call options in the run up
to April expiration.
Secondary market indicators continue to map
the end of the consolidation, how these react on the next pullback
will be important. The smart folk will have bought the test of the
lower trendline in the NASDAQ consolidation, or the island reversal
in the NASDAQ 100. Some of these folks will look to take some profits
and wait in the wings for the next pullback to unfold. Watch for
new breakouts, but don't chase anything that has already moved substantially
earlier during the week - pullbacks are buying opportunities in
such stocks. Contrarians might see today as a shorting opportunity
- looking for breakout gaps in the tech indices to close as the
market returns to Jan-Feb congestion levels. As always, price is
your lead.
DD as always, DJF
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