Fallondpicks Home | Free Stock Picks | Member Stock Picks [$] | Subscribe to my Newsletter | Subscribe to my Trade Signals | Subscribe to my Newsletter using a KIVA gift certificate | KIVA loans supported by membership | Testimonials | Find a Trading Job | Public Stockchart list | Market Links | Books | Data | Get Reviewed by me | Contact me | Search site | Blog Home

If you make a profit from information presented here, please consider making a donation to help run this site.
MAR 07
APR 07
MAY 07
JUN 07
JUL 07
AUG 07
SEP 07

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 29th: The indices eased a little after two days of limp gains. For the NASDAQ the concern would be for a double top, but given the NASDAQ 100 has held its breakout the forecast for the NASDAQ would be for a similar move upwards. Unfortunately, the semiconductor index continues its long standing struggle at the 50-day MA and there needs to be some upward traction if it is not to bring back the NASDAQ 100 into the fold of prior congestion. Large caps [Dow and S&P] are nicely positioned to push higher (another reason for optimism in the NASDAQ), even though all indices experienced modest distribution on Friday. Small caps [Russell 2000] have seen a struggle at the 200-day MA, although the bearish divergence in the MACD trigger line looks to be wavering. If this strength can hold the 200-day MA should turn into support (the 20-day MA is rising to meet the mild decline of the index).

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] were untroubled, maintaining the force of the rally. Based on the overall net bullishness of the indices I have maintained a bullish stance for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: BIDZ hit its target and looks well placed to push higher. The September 24th Subscriber pick closed for a 24% gain.

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 27th: Another gap, and another stall at the line. The trend remains bullish, but the indices are finding it tough to follow through on morning strength. Volume dropped thereby weakening the extent of the day's gains. However, the upward trend in on-balance-volume for the NASDAQ, Dow, NASDAQ 100 and S&P is intact - favoring continued accumulation for these indices. The NASDAQ is only a few points shy of registering a new closing high for the year, but it should be able to follow the action of the NASDAQ 100 after it was able to break and hold new 2007 highs. The semiconductor index is still the fly in the ointments as it spent another day below its 50-day MA. The Russell 2000 held the 200-day MA for yet another day as it enters the sixth day of its bullish flag consolidation. Large caps [Dow and S&P] are still confined by their recent consolidations - so no changes here.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] have moved well outside of oversold territory, but still are some way short of overbought levels. This internals favor a continuation of the NASDAQ rally started in August.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: POWI was a Subscriber pick for September 25th, but the stock hit its stop on a relatively quiet day to exit the position for a 4% loss

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 26th: Morning gaps didn't follow through with much upside. There was some higher volume accumulation for the NASDAQ, Dow, NASDAQ 100 and S&P, but doji for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are concerns for bulls looking for a little more upside. The continued failure of the semiconductor index to break the 50-day MA is an additional concern for these averages. Large caps [Dow and S&P] do look well placed to break their recent consolidation, which may allow Tech averages to consolidate gains. Small caps [Russell 2000] continue their struggles at the 200-day MA, but breakout support has held for the Russell 2000. There are perhaps enough small positives to keep the overall markets ticking higher but one must always remain vigilant.

Target hit: SUF reached its price target. The August 28th Subscriber pick closed for a 50% gain.

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 25th: A mixed day for the averages. The key mover was the break to new closing 2007 highs for the NASDAQ 100, although volume disappointed. There were gains for the NASDAQ too - which helped put a dent into the (bearish) tri-star top which was developing in the index. The semiconductor index did not join the bullishness of the tech averages and is a potential drag on further gains for the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ. Unfortunately, the Russell 2000 didn't get anywhere close to regaining its 200-day MA and large caps [Dow and S&P] lingered just shy of Monday's closing prices.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are still in rally mode, but are moving closer towards overbought territory. Nothing to suggest this rally is in trouble though.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: WNR sped towards its 200-day MA, knocking out the August 20th Breakout play for an 11% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 24th: Indices were unable to hold early gains as the NASDAQ 100 pushed to new 2007 highs, but closed the day on a small 'gravestone doji', similar to the doji which marked the last reaction high in July. The index was likely hindered by the continued struggles of the semiconductor index at its 50-day MA, with the NASDAQ enjoying a mixed day - finishing on a neutral doji, but not close to challenging 2007 highs. Small caps [Russell 2000] may have only shed 0.90% on the day, but the index went from leader to laggard {Tech > Large caps > Small caps}, drifting below its 200-day MA and bringing it close to 800 support. The "Death Cross" triggered late August is still a bearish influencing factor and this is a more troublesome development for the health of the post-Fed push. Large caps [Dow and S&P] eased on modest volume, but there was no significant change as its Fed gains held for another day.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: AUXL clipped its stop on a break of the 20-day MA. The September 17th Subscriber pick closed for a 4% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 21st: Bulls were feeling a little more pressure as early morning gaps ran into heavier volume selling, thereby preventing any follow through from initial strength. The last three days of action have the look of a tri-star top in the NASDAQ, but the appearance of this pattern is perhaps far enough away from resistance to suggest it may only be a coincidence - although overbought stochastics (short and intermediate term) does give the pattern bearish credence. The NASDAQ 100 is knocking around 2007 highs and further gains should be watched closely as this would define new market leadership (from an index which had lagged for most of the last rally). Unfortunately, the semiconductor index spent another day pegged by its 50-day MA, which will weaken the contribution it can make to NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 (the latter index in particular). Large caps [Dow and S&P] are consolidating nicely - these indices may have been quiet for the past three days, but their supporting technicals continue to improve. The Russell 2000 is also behaving well, holding the break of August-September resistance, in addition to trading above its 200-day MA. These are important steps towards a challenge on 2007 highs.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] no longer remain in oversold territory, completing the August low as a bottom of significance. The Nasdaq Percent of Stocks Above 50-day MA ($NAA50R) is interesting in that the August low was that of a bull market - not a pending bear market - which suggests 2007 highs will be breached for the NASDAQ during this rally. Supporting technicals of these internals (the MACDs in particular) are very strong and it could be another couple of weeks before these internals (and the parent NASDAQ) weaken.

Because of the gains triggered by the Fed decision I have resumed my bullish opinion for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: RMDX was a Subscriber pick for August 14th and 27th. After a steady ascent the stock reached its target price for 55% and 31% gains.

Stop hit: EGLS didn't make it out of the gates - after hours earnings disappointing, opening the stock down at the stop price. For record purposes it is considered a 7% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 20th: A not too unexpected retracement after two days of gains. Watchers of the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 may be concerned with the "evening star" shaping up near resistance on overbought short term [14,3] and intermediate term [39,1] stochastics. Volume was not excessive, which suggests passive selling rather than major profit taking - it would appear bulls are looking for more and are prepared to hold through the test of 2007 highs. The index which has the most ground work to make up, the Russell 2000, nicked its 200-day MA in a backtest - although it should be noted, in terms of relative strength it is the leading index. Large caps [Dow and S&P] were modestly weaker, but no real damage done here. Bulls can be happy with the days work.

Target hit: JRJC was a Subscriber pick for August 23rd and September 12th. It gapped above its target price to close the August trade for a 113% gain and the September play for a 63% gain.

Stop hit: ECPN was a high risk penny play from August 27th. Although it finished with a bullish hammer there was enough damage done to close the play for a 23% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 20th: A not too unexpected retracement after two days of gains. Watchers of the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 may be concerned with the "evening star" shaping up near resistance on overbought short term [14,3] and intermediate term [39,1] stochastics. Volume was not excessive, which suggests passive selling rather than major profit taking - it would appear bulls are looking for more and are prepared to hold through the test of 2007 highs. The index which has the most ground work to make up, the Russell 2000, nicked its 200-day MA in a backtest - although it should be noted, in terms of relative strength it is the leading index. Large caps [Dow and S&P] were modestly weaker, but no real damage done here. Bulls can be happy with the days work.

Target hit: JRJC was a Subscriber pick for August 23rd and September 12th. It gapped above its target price to close the August trade for a 113% gain and the September play for a 63% gain.

Stop hit: ECPN was a high risk penny play from August 27th. Although it finished with a bullish hammer there was enough damage done to close the play for a 23% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 19th: Although indices eased off intraday highs it was still a respectable performance from them. Doji in the NASDAQ and to a lesser extent the NASDAQ 100, point to indecision on behalf of buyers and sellers - this could be the start of the 50-day MA backtest for these indices. The bearish divergence in the Dow MACD trigger line was breached as expected. The biggest move came from the Russell 2000 as it made a confirmed break of the 200-day MA, filling the role of market leader {Small caps > Large caps > Tech indices}. Markets do look a little overbought in the short term which should see some modest weakness over the coming days as gains are digested. But there is plenty of support below for the indices to look forward too.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: ESMC was a Subscriber pick for August 30th. A low volume down day swept the stop for an 8% loss (although the stock found support at the 50-day MA).

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 18th: The Fed made its decision and 'surprised' with its larger than expected rate cut. The news was enough to slice the 50-day MAs which have acted as resistance over the last couple of days. With the exception of the semiconductor index which had an unusually lackluster day - finishing between its 200-day and 50-day MAs - all indices made significant technical breaks. Although the semiconductor index struggled, it didn't appear to have an adverse affect on the NASDAQ 100 which is close to breaking to new all-time highs. Tuesday's close left the index only 25 points away from new highs (not far when you consider Tuesday's stellar 52 point move). Tuesday also confirmed a new reaction high, breaking that of 2,032 posted in late August, and also confirmed 1,943 as new intermediate support. The broader NASDAQ has a little more work to do, but it also cleared a dual resistance level marked by early and late August highs, marking 2,536 (and/or 20-day MA) as reaction low support. Volume was significantly higher, but still well below the panic levels of August lows - this may prove to be a mixed blessing over the coming days. Large caps [Dow and S&P] enjoyed similarly healthy action, but there is a concern with the four month bearish divergence of the Dow MACD trigger line, which took some of the gloss off the 335 point gain for the index. A similar bearish divergence in the MACD of the S&P was breached, which may suggest the lingering one in the Dow won't last long. Small caps [Russell 2000] effectively traversed the four week trading range, breaking through July-September resistance, but finishing right on the 200-day MA. These are tricky times for small caps given the recent occurrence of the "Death Cross" between the 50-day and 200-day MAs.

Bulls can certainly take heart from the buying and give them a little breathing room once the backtests begin (look for support at the 50-day MAs, or the faster moving 20-day MAs if demand remains firm). Buyers of the August capitulation will be sitting pretty given September reaction lows are a safe place to raise stops.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: IRBT bit the dust yesterday, closing the September 6th Subscriber pick for an 8% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 15th: Status quo held from Thursday. Volume dropped to reinforce the day as a non-entity trading day. The only technical change came with a MACD trigger 'sell' for the semiconductor index. Not even the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] changed. Monday is unlikely to be any different. 50-day MAs mark the fight line for bulls and bears come Fed day.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 13th:The day promised much, but in the end bulls couldn't deliver as the indices hung around their opening gaps over the course of the day. Volume also disappointed, adding to the lack of interest. There was at least a break of the 50-day MA for the NASDAQ, while the Dow and S&P finished on this moving average. But with the exception of the Dow, neither the NASDAQ nor S&P showed good enough volume to support the break/test. I have drawn in on the charts (available by following the links on the website) new consolidation patterns which can be used to time entry/stop points depending on the direction of the break. Finally, there was little positive happening for the Russell 2000 and the semiconductor index, the latter eased back to its 200-day MA in quiet trading. All eyes are on the Fed and nobody wants to make the first move.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 12th: Selling pressure resumed as the 50-day MAs of the indices were tested. The NASDAQ suffered its third failed test to break the 50-day MA, doing so on a modestly higher distribution day. The NASDAQ 100 didn't fare so bad as it trades well above its 50-day MA, but selling volume was significantly higher for this index. Larger weakness in the semiconductor index won't help its cause either. The Dow didn't quite make it to the 50-day MA, but volume was down on yesterday - a relatively neutral day for this index. The S&P was similarly unchanged. The Russell 2000 didn't experience the same level of trouble as the NASDAQ or NASDAQ 100, but did struggle at its 20-day MA.

It still appears the 50-day MAs are the dominant make-or-break zone for the rally. Until these are breached on heavier volume to the upside one should consider the rally vulnerable. However, large one-day sell offs should be viewed as long term buying opportunities - even if the market was to make new lows it likely won't trade around such depressed areas for long. Use my suggested equity:cash ratio as a guide to the kind of exposure one should be angling in the market.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 11th: Sizable percentage gains in the market, but only the NASDAQ registered a low key accumulation day. The NASDAQ 100 inched above its 50-day MA, but did so without the higher volume seen in the NASDAQ. Other indices made gains, but none challenged their 50-day MAs and the Russell 2000 only made it back to the 20-day MA. The S&P closed above both its 20-day and 200-day MAs, but key resistance remains the 50-day MA overhead. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] changed once again with a bullish cross of the $NAA50R for the 5-day EMA. This indicator is a common victim of whipsaw - but is also the first indicator to turn in a bullish/bearish environment - are things set to improve for bulls???

Tuesday's gains will make good viewing for the news headlines, but there was no real change in overall market conditions - i.e. the August bottom is under threat from sellers.

Target hit: CORT was a Subscriber pick for August 28th and soared on FDA news, the stock closed for a 72% gain.

Stop hit: RZ was a Subscriber pick for July 9th, and a Breakout for July 16th and August 10th; each play closed for a 26% gain, 8% gain, and a 14% loss respectively.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 10th: Some big swings intraday for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, but there was no real change by the end of day. What mattered on Friday, still mattered on Monday. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] saw a bearish cross of the 5-day EMA for the $BPCOMPQ, adding to the previous one in the $NAA50R. Only the $NASI supports the rally initiated mid-August.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 8th: Friday was all about the 50-day MAs and their new role as resistance. There was clear trouble for the Dow, S&P, and Russell 2000 - none of which succeeded on their attempts to break through this key intermediate support / resistance level. This suggests the prior reaction lows - as good as they look for these indices - may not be the bottoms we are looking for, but just another set of lows of larger trends down in these indices. The Russell 2000 is the index most in trouble as the "Death Cross" expands its influence as short term technicals (CCI and stochastics [14,3]) move down from overbought conditions - suggesting further downside. The malaise spread to the tech averages, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, the former gapping below the 50-day MA, while the latter lost most of its breathing space to close just a shade below it. The supporting semiconductor index acted the like large caps as it failed to hold a break of the 50-day MA in its second attempt.

Although I have not submitted my Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook) for next week I will be going with a bearish outlook - but I am bullish over a longer time frame (as indicated above).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: CPTC was a Subscriber pick for August 31st. Although it managed to close Friday with a small gain the stock experienced an intraday spread to hit the stop price for a 5% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 6th: Little change to the markets as many closed inside Wednesday's range. The NASDAQ held 50-day MA support, while the semiconductor index did enough to regain 50-day MA support. The Dow remained below its 50-day MA (I erred yesterday on this). The Russell 2000 confirmed its "Death Cross" and will be watched closely to see how this impacts the other markets. Inside days are good short term trading opportunities; trade the break of the high/lows and put your stop on the reverse side. Other than that there was little to report for the day.

Target hit: PFSW actually made it to its target (just) yesterday. It closed for a 39% gain. PVCT was a Subscriber pick for August 23rd and July 2nd; the earlier pick closed for a 71% gain, the later pick for a 44% gain.

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. September 5th: The final leg of my travels are now complete and I reside in Dublin. The last couple of days have seen mixed action with bulls pushing the markets higher on Tuesday before drifting back on Wednesday. The 50-day MAs were the story of the day. The NASDAQ made it above the 50-day MA and although it weakened Wednesday it was able to hold above this average. The Dow and S&P made it above their respective 50-day MAs, but couldn't break above this moving average. Another index to struggle, the Russell 2000, came close to a touch of its 50-day MA, but instead the "Death Cross" came into effect as the 50-day MA cut below its 200-day MA. The NASDAQ 100 is closest to challenging 2007 highs, and although its 1.29% loss for Wednesday did it no favors, it contiues to trade well above the 50-day MA. It has managed this with limited help from the semiconductor index which closed Wednesday below its 50-day MA.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Stockchart public list - please remember to vote!

Back to top

Disclaimer

The information found on the Fallond Stock Picks Inc. website (www.fallondpicks.com) has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any information in this site without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by Fallond Stock Picks Inc. or any of its employees, Fallond Stock Picks Inc. makes no representations or warranties or takes any responsibility as to the accuracy of completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. accepts no liability to the recipient whatsoever whether in contract, in tort, for negligence, or otherwise for any direct or consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use of the information provided on this website, or of the recipient relying on any such recommendation or information (except insofar as any statutory liability cannot be excluded). Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice. Fallond Stock Picks Inc., or their respective affiliates or their officers, directors, analysts, or employees may have positions in securities referred to herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities mentioned herein. This document does not purport to be a complete description of the securities market or developments to which reference is made. There may be instances when fundamental, technical, and quantitative opinions may not be in concert. There are risks inherent in all investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain persons. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange, rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. and their affiliates make no representation that the companies which issue securities which are the subject of their research reports are subject to, or in compliance with certain informational reporting requirements imposed by the Securities Exchange act of 1934. Sales of securities or services covered in any report or on the web site may be made in only those jurisdictions where such securities or services and Fallond Stock Picks Inc. are qualified for solicitation. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. does not warrant, represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information, content, advertisements, or Third Party Sites and Content (as defined below) (collectively, the "Materials") contained on, distributed through, or linked, downloaded or accessed from Fallondpicks.com, nor the quality of any products, information, or other materials displayed, purchased, or obtained by you as a result of an advertisement or any other information or offer on or in connection with Fallond Stock Picks Inc. You acknowledge that any use of or reliance upon any Materials shall be at your sole risk. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. reserves the right, in its sole discretion and without any obligation, to make modifications to any portion of the Fallondpicks.com web site or publications at any time. You acknowledge and agree that you bear responsibility for your own investment research and investment decisions, and that Fallond Stock Picks Inc. shall not be held liable by you or any others for any decision made or action taken by you or others based upon reliance on or use of information or materials obtained or accessed through use of Fallondpicks.com. Prior to any transaction in securities, you should consult with a qualified professional securities or financial advisor.

Copyright 2004 Fallondpicks.com