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User id: member email. Password: gold

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 30th: To think the indices are only now getting to their 20-day MAs says much about past the selling and the level of work needed by bulls. The NASDAQ closed on the 20-day MA with a doji, implying indecision on the part of bulls and increasing the chance for a retracement; the lower volume contributes to this scenario. The NASDAQ 100 scored a second doji; a third sets up the possibility of a bearish tri-star top - although the index isn't overbought enough to suggest it would be a strong reversal pattern. The semiconductor index managed to reverse yesterday's losses but closed just below its 20-day MA. The Dow nudged over the 20-day MA and managed to break resistance, but volume was disappointing for a breakout. The Russell 2000 enjoyed a cleaner breakout of sharply declining resistance but has fell short of a challenge on its 20-day MA. The S&P edged a resistance break of its own and was able to nick a close above it 20-day MA but not before handing back a third of its daily gain.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] continued their upward advance and much depends on a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA in the Summation Index ($NASI). Also note the strong bullish divergence in the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) with respect to the index.

With a seasonally bullish period coming up it is looking better for a rally, even if the last run to lows was looking to develop into something worse.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 29th: The late day selling discounted the early afternoon gains, but it wasn't enough to eat into yesterday's sizable gains. Volume was a little lighter which also marked it as a consolidation day. Technically, there was no change and the resistance which remained in play on Tuesday was still relevant Wednesday. The NASDAQ, Dow, NASDAQ 100, and S&P closed with neutral 'spinning top' candlesticks. The semiconductor index was slightly more bearish, but its MACD trigger line switched to a 'buy' signal. The Russell 2000 ran into its nearest resistance and eased away from it by the close; effectively catching up with the other indices.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] hadn't updated at time of writing but further gains seemed likely.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 28th: A big sweep of gains on higher (although somewhat modest) volume gave bulls some breathing room, but these gains were just enough to break sharp declining resistance in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, but left resistance in the Dow and S&P intact, without even a challenge on Russell 2000 resistance. On a more positive front there were MACD trigger 'buy's in the NASDAQ, Dow, NASDAQ 100, and S&P; in addition to bullish divergences in associated MACD trigger lines. There were also no new lows for the Dow and S&P although it would be surprising if these indices don't at some point post new lows. Accumulation days have started to challenge distribution days since the start of October, something which didn't seem possible in September. Other than neckline resistance from last week the next biggest test is likely to be the 20-day MAs.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] began their recovery with a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA in the Percentage of Stocks Above the 50-day EMA ($NAA50R), but the Summation Index ($NASI) and Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) remained stubbornly bearish.

Good - but not good enough. As TraderMike says, we need new reaction highs to be confident this is more than a simple bear rally.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None.

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 27th: It was a surprisingly light trade day with little change in the markets bar one. Given how the futures were shaping up into the day's open the modest losses will be viewed as a victory for bulls, but the Russell 2000 was the troublesome index as it made new closing lows. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 did likewise, but unlike the Russell 2000 it was not suggesting a cup-and-handle pattern as was the case in September for the small cap index. If there is a silver lining for the Russell 2000 it is the bullish divergence in the CCI. The semiconductor index experienced an inside day and maintains a bullish divergence in its CCI.

The markets still favor making new lows, but the longer they linger around the lows of last week (or the week before as is the case for the Dow and S&P), the stronger the chance for a bottom will be. Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] will need a few more days to undo the bearish crosses in their 5-day EMAs. I still like the idea of the bottom, but I'm more skeptical of the lows of the past 2-weeks holding as the lows for the bottom.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None.

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 24th: Before the market opened it had looked like it was going to be a rout, but in the end it was another typical down day (relative to what has gone before). However, the way the week has gone I would not be surprised to see a sharp down day on Monday. Why? The market struggled to create the double bottom I thought was likely, instead running into resistance defined by the series of tight intraday spike highs. The only way the double/triple bottom theory could be rescued for tech markets if Monday saw the NASDAQ push past 1,650 and the NASDAQ 100 achieved the more modest target of 1,220. The Dow and S&P haven't violated the lows of the double bottom so these could lose a few more points and still be on course to create a double bottom. The Russell 2000 fell between the two situations, perhaps edging more towards the bear side than bull; a break of 500 over the next couple of days would be viewed as a minimum requirement to keep the double bottom on track. The semiconductor index long since blew past the double bottom idea but did close Friday with a bullish hammer.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] weakened. The Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) and Percent of Stocks Above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) both dropped further away from their 5-day EMAs. The Summation Index ($NASI) was the only breadth indicator not to cross its 5-day EMA in October - this is the indicator to watch for a crossover; when all three indicators make the bullish cross of the 5-day EMAs that will mark the setting for a bottom - at that point confirmation will come on a price break of the most recent reaction high.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None.

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 23rd: Bulls put the brakes on what looked like it could have been a torrid day. There is a good chance of a triple bottom in place of the earlier predicted double bottoms. The NASDAQ finished with a long-tailed spinning top on heavier volume. The long tail represented the prior demand in the earlier two spike lows for October. Technicals didn't confirm the weakness, although are a long way from a recovery. The Dow hadn't the range of the NASDAQ nor the volume, but a triple bottom is still a possibility. The NASDAQ 100 closed with a doji on higher volume, creating three spike lows while holding the MACD trigger 'buy' lost by the NASDAQ. The Russell 2000 closed on a modest hammer but it will need upside to confirm. The S&P finished with a small hammer on higher volume; watch for a MACD trigger line confirmation.

If triple bottoms are to emerge in the markets they will need to push a quick 10% gain before consolidating and breaking through. This is a tough order in this market. Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are under pressure but are holding their developing bottoms - more helping than hindering.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: SVR ran into its stop to close the play for a 13% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 21st: Tuesday's losses undid the gains of Monday, doing so with higher volume distribution. The NASDAQ did get a MACD trigger 'buy' and was able to hold support of the rising lows from October, but another day of loss would break it. The Dow eased back on Monday's breakout, but the loss wasn't enough to negate the breakout. Like the tech averages (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100), the Dow, S&P and small caps (Russell 2000) are on the verge of MACD trigger 'buy's. This will lend further weight for a bottom in the markets. However, the S&P lost its consolidation breakout and is at risk of a move back to pennant support. Certainly something to keep bulls on edge.

Relative strength has started to shift from tech to small caps; but large caps have the edge - a net bearish environment {Large caps > Tech > Small Caps). Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] have a bullish cross of 5-day EMAs in the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) and the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day SMA ($NAA50R) with just the Summation Index ($NASI) to confirm. Enough to keep the bulls interested but any downside tomorrow will likely morph into a retest of recent lows.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 20th: The only real change came with the pennant breaks for the Dow and S&P. However, the break for the S&P was relatively minor and the volume for each was very light. Technicals for each of the indices remained weak, the only improvement was a MACD trigger 'buy' for the NASDAQ 100 with a pending 'buy' for the NASDAQ likely to kick in tomorrow.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] hadn't updated a time of writing but are likely to have improved.

On a percentage basis it was an active day - but it changed very little on the larger scale of things. Tomorrow is another day.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 17th: A day of modest indecision; it failed to hold the gains it had built earlier on during the day, but didn't collapse as had looked possible when it gapped down off the open. The low volume weakened its importance further in the scheme of things, but on the flip side it has set things up for a more volatile Monday.

A number of price patterns can emerge here. For the NASDAQ there is an ascending triangle pattern, for the Dow there is a small pennant. The NASDAQ 100 looks to be creating a rising price channel with a similar sharper channel in the Russell 2000. The S&P has a less symmetrical pennant pattern. These can morph and change between the indices, but pattern breaks are likely to broaden into sideways patterns before building into a trend move.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] continue to build their bottoms. The Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) has made a crude (shallow) double bottom, helped by the 'buy' trigger in the MACD. The Summation Index ($NASI) hasn't generate a bullish cross of its 5-day EMA but the rate of decline has slowed. The Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) created the most volatile reversal for a bottom - acting more like the $NAA50R in its degree of counter reaction to the decline. I remain firm on the bullish call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 14th: Joe Soap decline this was not, undercutting the Monday gap and bringing the indices deep inside Friday's range. The good news was the light volume which accompanied the selling. If the light volume can remain as prices drop and break to new lows it would be good news for a bottom; if prices make new lows on increasing volume it would suggest latent selling in the market. Intel's figures didn't help the semiconductor index as it finished just 2 points off Friday's lows. The Russell 2000 has the most room to maneuver, closely followed by the Dow and S&P, but no index was able to hold the 62% retracement.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are getting more interesting as the previously stubborn Summation Index ($NASI) plunged to new lows. The Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) and Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) don't have the room to move down, but may be slow to rally.

Based on Wednesday's action markets want to make new lows, but the selling doesn't look to be supported by strength from shorts. Don't be surprised if we see another spike low with a wide intraday range; this should complete the second top for volatility.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 14th: The morning gap was always going to be a step too far after yesterday's low volume gains. What was surprising was the end-of-day strength in large caps (Dow and S&P) where the easier move was down as was the case in the tech averages (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) and small caps (Russell 2000). The semiconductor index also closed weak, but there was a 'buy' signal in the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator. Volume sided with the bears with distributions days in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, but favored indecision in the Dow and S&P.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] didn't see bullish crossovers yesterday, but did rise. Volatility looks ready to test highs as part of a double top, but based on this the worst of the market declines look done, we may still see down days, but they should be more of the Joe Soap variety rather than the fall-of-the-cliff type.

Monday's breakout gaps are looking a good intraday test for Wednesday - what I'll be interested in is seeing how these gaps hold as support, if they do. Bearish momentum still in control but plenty of wiggle room for bulls to work with.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 13th: The news focused on the point/percentage gains in the market, but the disappointment came in the volume. The day very much looked like short covering, not the demand buying which would firm a bottom. Rallies like these nearly always retreat and I'll be looking at Fibonacci retracements for support on expected weakness. For the NASDAQ this means 1,660 to 1734, the Dow its 8,510 to 8,897, the NASDAQ 100 its 1,297 to 1,342, the Russell 2000 its 508 to 532, and the S&P its 904 to 944. When one looks at the position of the morning breakout gaps relative to Fibonacci retracements it looks more likely that these gaps will close - but this should be good support and attract the buyers who were absent today. The good news was the late day action didn't attract new short positions, looks like they are waiting to mount an attack at one of the key moving averages (20-day MA). Today was a start, but only a start.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] hadn't updated at time of writing but there was likely bullish crossovers for Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) and Percentage of Stocks above 50-day MA ($NAA50R).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 12th: Another crazy volatile session got the kind of volume which had been lacking this past week. Not sure if it's enough for the bottom, but I suspect whatever low is put in next week will confirm the bottom. The NASDAQ edged a slightly higher close, but not enough to rank as a piercing pattern something the Russell 2000 was able to do. The NASDAQ 100 finished only a few points lower than Thursday's close, but the two patterns and their implications of bullish resolve tell the same story. The Dow and S&P had a volatile session, the latter finished on a doji and the former with a spinning top - two patterns which imply indecision in the market. The huge intraday range also saw the tussle as something which the bulls were prepared to defend. The semiconductor index finished with a doji too as the bullish divergence in the CCI held. With the exception of the Russell 2000, all indices are primed for a morning star pattern. For this to hold true there should be gap and rally, a rally which erases most of Thursday's losses. An attempt at this pattern was made Thursday morning, but sellers quickly overwhelmed morning buyers. Monday is a fresh start.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are finally singing from the same song sheet. The Summation Index ($NASI) which had been dogged in holding 'strength' as all else around collapsed has finally yielded and fallen into oversold territory, not to mention volatility is off the charts. The week's action in the breadth indicators was enough to maintain my bullish call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook), with the expectation of a bottom next week.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: AVAV knocked its stop but finished Friday on a bullish piercing pattern. The May pick closed for a 2% gain, the June pick for a 10% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 9th: Another walloping as buyers weren't to be found as sellers continued to dump. How many sellers are there? Or are these people who bought last week? Any positives? Volume was well down on yesterday so maybe we have our short term bottom, although the weak close is rarely a reason to be optimistic. The NASDAQ tested 2004 lows and is on course to test the September 11th lows. The NASDAQ 100 blew past 2004 lows and may get to test the September 11th lows first. The Dow is down 17% on the week. It has 500 points (or one day...) to go before it gets to its September 11th low. The S&P fell through its September 11th low! It has 135 points to get to 2002 lows. The Russell 2000 is down an incredible 19% on the week but this fall only dropped it into congestion from 2000 to 2002 given its leadership through 2004 to 2007. The semiconductor index was the only one to emerge with some credit with its 13% drop, but it had long lost its September 11th low and has 40 points to get to 2002 lows.

The Dow, Russell 2000, or S&P didn't have the dignity to mount a respectable rally, while the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 both closed with bearish engulfing patterns. Don't be surprised if markets gap down hard. tomorrow.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: NUVA never left the dock after today's selling hit everything hard. It closed for a 7% loss. The same was said for TCB which closed for a 4% loss. And WERN too; it closed for a 10% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 8th: Well - bulls got a modicum of relief by not collapsing from the open gap down, but there is much work to do before there is any confidence on the part of buyers. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 closed on inverse hammers which may yet set up bullish gap breakaways. The semiconductor index had at one point recovered nearly all of yesterday's losses before it returned to the lows of the day, but the intraday move was at least promising. The bullish divergence in the CCI still stands despite the rout. The Dow and S&P finished weakly but the 2% loss in the Dow and 1% in the S&P was almost a relief from the prior selling! The doji in the S&P may set up a bullish morning star if the index can gap up and hold the it, from there it could go on to reverse most of yesterday's losses. The Russell 2000 endured such a sharp sell off that the only way it can go is up, but so far it has managed to ignore such requests and finished lower once again.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] with the exception of the Summation Index ($NASI) reached extreme oversold levels.

Will tomorrow provide the bulls with the rally they need? Bulls will need more than one day of strength to restore confidence in this market, a tall order indeed.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 7th: It was disappointing to see the markets fail to react positively to yesterday's late day buying, but with the loss of the bullish hammer markets are set up for another down day. This relentless selling is what bottoms are made of - but knife catching is a tricky business. Action in the Russell 2000 is just hideous, losing close to 30% in just over 2 weeks is just incredible. Volume was lighter which may or may not be good news as lighter volume is better viewed in the context of a low retest, not during the formation of the low to be retested. The NASDAQ 100 fell out of its (weak) broadening wedge pattern. Remaining indices were just plain bad.

How all of this impacts on the Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] remains to be seen. If there was a silver lining it was the slow down in volatility gains.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: OCN crashed its stop to take it out for a 17% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldOctober 6th: Another global sweep of losses as banking problems spread to key European banks. Volume was mixed. In the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 volume climbed sharply to register a firm distribution day. But large caps (Dow and S&P), especially the Dow on its break of 10,000, posted relatively light volume - although still registering as a distribution day. The bullish hammers in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are weakened by the morning gaps which will act as a short term vacuum pulling prices higher, but the gap will also place a lid on any further advance. The Russell 2000 was not excluded from the carnage. What was once the strongest index in early September has turned into one of the weakest. In a strong bottom it's important to flush out any pockets of strength and there aren't many places to hide. As noted in my Zignals blog post it may be a couple of weeks before we see the absolute bottom (link available at the base of my email signature), but there is a good precendence over the long term. We just have to stomach the losses in the here and now.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] have mostly reached deep oversold levels along with supporting technicals. What had been the chief stumbling block for breadth indicators, the Summation Index ($NASI), has about a day's losses to go before it enters oversold territory. Finally, volatility has reached levels previously never seen before - not even after the Asian currency crisis or September 11th.

But given the extent of the losses (and possible losses to come), the next bounce will likely be short lived before an attempt at a retest is made. It will be this retest which will provide the 'safest' buying opportunity. However, if you are looking to buy over the long haul or for a retirement account, then the 2% loss or more days are opportunities to accumulate - not sell stocks, irrespective of a retest.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: Over the two week period the following stops were hit: CRMT for a 6% loss and a 14% gain; GIII for a 14% loss; LTD fell for a 12% loss; FRM was stopped out for a 12% loss; IPCM also exited for a 10% loss; SWS was knocked out at the very lows of the day for a 24% loss; XBI lost heavily over two days to hit its stop for a 5% loss; TPGI reversed a breakout for a 13% loss

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