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OCT 07

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.October 30th: Minor losses on mixed volume; there was a registered distribution day for the NASDAQ, but other indices eased on light volume into the second day of the Fed meeting. But even the NASDAQ distribution day is likely to be overshadowed by whatever reaction comes from the Fed rate decision. Little more to add until one sees what Wednesday brings.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: DAC eased back to run into its relatively tight stop from October 29th for a 3% loss. PCOP also drifted through its 50-day MA and into its September 28th stop price for an 8% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.October 29th: All eyes are on the Fed this week. Although Monday's action put in a decent gain for the markets, the gains were unable to make much directional headway. The only index to buck the trend was the semiconductor index as it finally logged a positive after lagging the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 for all of last week. The NASDAQ 100 remained contained by 2,205 resistance - so the Fed decision will have a big impact on what happens to this index. The Russell 2000 reversed off its 20-day MA, but it didn't come across as a major test of resistance. Large caps [Dow and S&P] were unchanged around their 20-day MAs. The other point of note was the reversal back below the 5-day EMA for the Nasdaq Percentage of Stocks above their 50-day MA ($NAA50R). This indicator frequently suffers from whipsaw around this moving average so a positive Fed decision could see this moving average breached once more.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

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October 27th: Volume was lighter than in previous days, but still respectable as bulls took control. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 had decent days with a resistance breakout for the NASDAQ, but it was the gains in the Dow and S&P which ended the August-September trendline breaks - leaving potential bear traps behind. Increasing bullish momentum was the bullish cross of the 5-day MA in the $NAA50R (Nasdaq Stocks above its 50-day MA), but there was no change in the Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI), and only a minor gain in the Nasdaq Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ). I don't think there was enough bullish momentum to switch my Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook) to the bull side, but it was certainly a step in the right direction. The 50-day MAs look to be good support for large caps [Dow and S&P]. Small caps (Russell 2000) also had the 50-day MA in addition to its 200-day MA. These are important levels for next week. However, there are still a number of concerns; first that volume of October is well below that of July; but the second and most important is the continued weakness in the semiconductor index - the only index to finish lower on Friday.

Target hit: TSO was a Subscriber pick for October 11th. The stock gapped up to its target price for a 15% gain.

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.October 25th: Very much a repeat of yesterday with the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 falling prey to the increasing weakness in the semiconductor index. Large caps [Dow and S&P] had a flat close but volume registered another distribution day - the seventh in a row for the Dow. Bulls will look to the 50-day MAs as support for both the Dow and S&P, but even here resistance defined by August-September trendlines remains prominent. The Russell 2000 is testing lower (redrawn) support and is only a few ticks from breaking such support and entering a void of support down to 736 - some 70 points away.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: HSIC was a breakout for October 2nd but an early afternoon slump saw the stop hit for a 3% loss. SWKS was a Subscriber pick for September 13th and 21st, and a Breakout for August 20th. The two Subscriber picks closed for a flat and 6% loss return, and the Breakout for a 10% gain. TTG was a Subscriber pick for September 6th and a Breakout for October 19th. The latter play closed for a 5% loss. The September play finished with a 21% gain. CEVA was a Subscriber pick for October 3rd which fell sharply following a false breakout. The stock closed for a 5% loss. SSTI was a Subscriber pick for October 16th but it fell by the wayside for a 12% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.October 24th: A sucker punch for the semiconductor index took much of the gloss off end of day buying. This major breakdown in semiconductors will likely end whatever hope the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 had at sustaining their rallies. It may only take days, maybe weeks for weakness in the semiconductor index to spread to the tech indices (and eventually to the other indices) - but the worst looks inevitable. Bulls will look to the strong finish as a sign of strength, but even this looks to be a gloss based on the lack of conviction from the semiconductor index. Volume climbed to register across the board bearish distribution - another negative. As for the individual indices, the NASDAQ gave up Tuesday's breakout while the Dow and S&P finished right on resistance - not the kind of form which makes for bullish optimism. It may be enough to switch my third month of bullish optimism back to a cash-is-king opinion. Subscribers should look to my cash:equity exposure to get a better idea of my opinion on the market.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: FALC didn't make it out of the gates as a Breakout. Wednesday's play closed for a 5% loss. The earlier September 27th Subscriber pick closed for an 8% gain. QDEL dribbled into its stop, even though it held 50-day MA support. The August 13th Breakout closed for a 23% gain. The September 19th Subscriber pick closed at breakeven. The later September 27th pick closed for a 4% loss. CERS nicked its stop to close the October 15th Breakout play for a 12% loss. GES fell to a counter breakout. The October 16th Subscriber pick closed for a 7% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.October 23rd: An interesting day of divergences. Strong gains in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 - the latter index in particular - were tempered by the limp action in the semiconductor index. Although the NASDAQ 100 posted on a new closing high on a significant increase in volume, the ability of this index to sustain such strength in the absence of strength in the semiconductor index remains doubtful. Other indices also had concerns of their own; the Dow and S&P both worked off their 50-day MAs but ran into trouble at former trendline support connecting August-September lows. The Russell 2000 was able to put enough in to close above a similar trendline, creating a bear trap in the process as the index was also able to finish above its 50-day and 200-day MA. Can this index reverse its September "Death Cross"? That remains open to question but initial signs look promising. Tricky times for the indices.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: GSS was a Subscriber pick for October 10th. The stock gapped below both its 200-day MA and stop price, but rallied to hit its stop price for a 7.4% loss. MAIL was one of the few losers on the day. The September 17th Subscriber pick closed for a 10% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.October 22nd: Initial weakness gave way to buying as indices regained some of Friday's losses. Volume was too light to consider it a strong bullish day and there were lingering issues with resistance in spite of the gains; such as the 20-day MA in the NASDAQ, the 50-day MA for the Dow, former channel support (now resistance) in the NASDAQ 100, and the combination of trendline resistance and 200-day MA for the Russell 2000. On the flip side, the S&P and Russell 2000 held support of their respective 50-day MAs, while the long suffering semiconductor index clung to 473 support. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] expanded on weakness, enough to keep a cautious outlook for the immediate future.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: PODD clipped its stop after closing the day on a bullish piercing pattern. The stock featured to Susbcribers for September 12th and closed for a 16% gain. The later October 5th Breakout play closed for a 5% loss. RBA suffered a large intraday spread to knock out the October 4th Subscriber pick for a breakeven return and the later October 19th Breakout for a 4% loss. AXYS suffered a big sweep at the open to knock out the September 25th Subscriber pick for a 6% loss. PACT was a Subscriber pick for October 9th which steadily drifted into its stop for a 17% loss. IGLD may be working a backtest of its resistance break but this did not prevent a stop hit of the October 15th Subscriber pick for an 8% loss. KSW dipped below what looked to be double bottom support to close the August 14th Subscriber pick for a 9% loss. PLA gapped into its stop price to close the recent October 8th Subscriber pick for a 4% loss. LMIA was another bullish engulfing pattern whose lows knocked out the stop price. The October 10th Subscriber pick closed for a 10% loss. TDG gapped down into its stop price to close the September 25th Subscriber pick for a 5% loss, even though the stock was able to find support at the 50-day MA.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.October 20th: The weight of bullish expectation proved to be too much as the indices capitulated on heavy volume. There were confirmed channel breaks for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, but also support breaks for the Dow, S&P and Russell 2000. No index escaped sellers wrath, although if there is any solace for bulls it would be volume was not hugely excessive given the % losses posted (to the extent trading curbs kicked in). Some form of relief bounce is likely to materialize over the coming days, especially given the NASDAQ closed right on July reaction high support, and the S&P, Dow and Russell 2000 finished very close to their respective 50-day MAs. But the beyond that the indices are likely to struggle, especially on the break of the prior reaction low for the semiconductor index, combined with the significant close below its 40-week MA. And the failed breakouts (new bull traps) for large cap indices [S&P and Dow].

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] flashed a 'sell' trigger in the MACD and Ultimate Oscillator of the Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) and a MACD 'sell' in the Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index ($BPCOMPQ). Because of the sharp reversal in the indices at relatively overbought Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] I have turned bearish for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: ANO was a Subscriber pick for August 21st and a Breakout for August 27th. After five days of solid gains the stock reached its two targets for a 73% and 49% gain respectively.

Stop hit: LWAY finally ran into its stop to close the August 23rd Subscriber pick for a 32% gain and the October 2nd Breakout play for a 15% loss. NETL ran into its September 26th Breakout stop for a 6% loss. The earlier September 13th Subscriber pick closed for a 6% gain. BPHX left behind a bull trap to close the October 10th Subscriber pick for a 7% loss, the earlier August 22nd pick closed for a 33% gain. EXH reversed its breakout to close the Oct 11th Subscriber play for a 5% loss. WLRS accelerated its series of recent losses to close the Oct 8th Subscriber pick for a 12% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.October 17th: An interesting day when initial promise soon stalled, only for bulls to take the indices back up by the close. The biggest change on the day was the break of the 200-day MA by the semiconductor index, but tellingly, the index was unable to break above former rising support - now resistance. The NASDAQ regained channel support, negating Tuesday's breakdown, and bringing a redraw of (new) channel support. Volume was significantly higher, but whether this marks bullish accumulation or bearish churning (on a "hanging man" candlestick) remains to be seen. The Dow, S&P and Russell 2000 all finished on neutral "long-tailed doji", marking an extended battle between bulls and bears. The S&P and Russell 2000 had the added benefit of holding 20-day MA support.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] suffered further weakness with a bearish cross of the 5-day EMA for the Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI). This added to expanding technical weakness for the Nasdaq Percent of Stocks Above 50-day MA ($NAA50R). Bulls haven't had it their own way in quite a number of days and bearish volume has started to take over what bullish action buyers were able to muster for October.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.October 16th: Bears continued to chip away at bullish resolve. The rising channel which held so well for the NASDAQ is no more. To add insult to injury the break was accompanied by a 'sell' trigger in the MACD on higher volume. The Dow confirmed a reversal of its 14,001 break as it gave up the 20-day MA on a third day of distribution in four. The NASDAQ 100 got off relatively lightly with only a MACD trigger 'sell' on below average volume. Channel support held for this index. The Russell 2000 and S&P were similar to the Dow in that they lost 20-day MA support on a MACD 'sell' trigger. It was no surprise to see the semiconductor index struggle below the 200-day MA for a fourth day in a row, technicals remain horribly weak for this index. Overall, markets are in need of a period of weakness - the question is whether this will be a time to buy, or a time to step aside? Initial indications would seem to favor the latter approach.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: MDVN drifted into its stop on the fourth day of weakness. The October 5th Breakout play closed for a 7% loss; an earlier September 7th Subscriber pick closed for a 12% gain. NILE was another disappointment after early promise. The September 14th Subscriber pick closed for an 8% loss. LEA was a recent Subscriber pick for October 15th. The stock lost rising support to close below its 200-day MA and into its stop for a 7% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.October 15th: It was looking at one stage to be a tougher day than it turned out to be. Higher volume distribution marked it as the second such day out of three, with a mixed bag of action at technical support. Channel support was tagged for the NASDAQ but there was no break of support for this index. The NASDAQ 100 is still well above its channel support. But it is a 50:50 call to suggest breakout support for the Dow was breached, while the S&P reversed enough to suggest a 'bull trap' for last week's breakout (and a MACD trigger 'sell' signal to boot) - yet even this index is aided by support of the 20-day MA just below. However, there was no mistaking the failure of the semiconductor index to regain the 200-day MA and the larger weakness (on the day) in the underperforming Russell 2000. Large caps have jumped above small caps in terms of relative strength, but both lag tech averages {Tech > Large caps > Small caps}. This is a more bearish alignment for the markets which means bulls will have their work cut out for them if this situation is not to degenerate even further.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] continued to slump with a MACD trigger 'sell' in the Nasdaq Stocks Above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R). The last trigger in this technical indicator for the $NAA50R was the 'buy' during the August bottom.

Target hit: CKSW hit its target to close the September 27th play for a 27% gain.

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.October 12th: Thursday and Friday were a bit of a roller coaster, but in the end there was no change to any of the 2 months+ rising channels for the key averages. Where changes emerged was in the higher volume distribution selling for the likes of the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, and the break of 6-week support for the semiconductor index. Making matters worse for the semiconductor index was the failure of the index to regain the 200-day MA which was breached by Thursday's close. There is enough demand in the major averages to keep bulls happy, but the foundation for this rise is slowly eroding.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] slowed their advance with a 5-day EMA sell trigger for the Nasdaq Stocks Above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R). The remaining two internals - $NASI and $BPCOMPQ - kept chugging higher. The Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) is very close to entering bear market territory top levels ('0'), but has another 500 points to run before it enters bull market territory tops. Given Nasdaq market internals bottomed in bullish market territory it is likely one will see further gains for the $NASI before it tops.

There is still enough optimism in the market to keep the bullish call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook) intact. However, the next couple of weeks could see a change in this sentiment. One reason for this shift is the current lack of fear in the markets as measured by volatility.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: IMMR drifted into its stop to close the October 9th play for a 7% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. October 10th: There were higher volume gains for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, although the point gain was relatively meager for both averages. Large caps [Dow and S&P] gave up some of their hard earned gains from Tuesday, but neither 14,001 support for the Dow or 1,555 in the S&P were violated. Weakness in the semiconductor index continued as it drifted back into a (positive) test of the 200-day MA - but the index won't survive repeated tests of this important long term average. Supporting technicals are favoring further weakness, so the semiconductor index (and perhaps the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) could be looking at a bigger problem over the next week or so. The Russell 2000 behaved relatively well as it shaped a small handle some 11 points off resistance. This minor consolidation pattern could provide the launching pad for a break of 856 and firm up the earlier breaks in the tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] and large caps [Dow and S&P].

Target hit: UTVG was a Breakout play for September 10th. The stock reached its target for a 50% gain.

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. October 9th: Markets continued higher as Fed minutes were interpreted as in favor of further rate cuts. Volume climbed from that of the previous day, although large cap [Dow and S&P] volume disappointed given the new closing highs for these indices. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 pushed higher on decent volume (a technical "accumulation" day), but there was no joy from the semiconductor index as it gave up 0.89%. How long rallies in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 can diverge from the underperforming semiconductor index remains to be seen. The NASDAQ 100 is fast approaching one potential resistance area, marked by the rising channel for the August-October rally. The NASDAQ has much more elbow room before a similar test is made.

Small caps [Russell 2000] had their own worries as relative strength shifted towards technology indices - albeit from already weakened levels {Tech > Small caps > Large caps}, this came in spite of the higher close for the Russell 2000 as it makes its way towards 856 resistance.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are close to traditional overbought levels, but even when reached they will not necessarily mark a clear market top. In 2003 and 2006/07 it took the NASDAQ the best part of 8 months to top after the index market internals had topped. However, when these internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] do reach overbought conditions it will be a time to consider taking some profits from index positions taken from August lows, although individual stock plays are likely to run a little longer.

Target hit: MTL blew past its suggested price target. For the purposes of my analysis the August 30th Subscriber pick and September 19th free pick closed for a 53% and 26% gain respectively.

Stop hit:

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. October 8th: The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 posted modest gains along with the semiconductor index as other indices eased back on light volume. It was good news for bulls looking to consolidate Friday's gains. Technicals held firm, and there was no significant change to the overall picture.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: SDTH was a Subscriber pick for October 3rd. After a couple of days of weakness the stock eased back into its stop price for a 6% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. October 6th: Decent gains, with volume, registered Friday as a firm accumulation day for the markets. Breakouts are established for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, with developing breakout moves for the Dow and S&P. Although the Russell 2000 enjoyed a solid 1.9% gain it remained some 12 points shy of a new 2007 high. The semiconductor index continued with its lackluster action and this could come back to haunt the breakouts for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] advanced as they have done for the past couple of months, but have yet to reach typical overbought levels. Even when such levels are reached - as they did last October - it won't necessarily mark a top in the market. Indeed, the NASDAQ spent the next eight months "drifting upwards" to July's top as the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] worked themselves off their highs in a modest decline.

Because of the firm 2-month trend I remain bullish for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. October 4th: Well, markets weren't in a position to tolerate further declines, but in the end it was honors even as markets traded inside a tight intraday range. Volume was lower than yesterday, marking the day a clear consolidation day. Bulls are still in control, but will be likely be concerned with weakness in the Russell 2000 and semiconductor index. Trends in on-balance-volume favor accumulation for the Russell 2000, but (worryingly) distribution for the semiconductor index. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] continue to act in favor of bulls. None have reached traditional overbought levels associated with a bull market - given these indicators bottomed and reversed in August from bull market zones.

Target hit: KUN has been a high flyer, the October 3rd Subscriber pick shot to its target price (and well beyond) for an 86% gain.

Stop hit: JASO exited on a doji after some heavier volume selling. The September 24th Subscriber pick closed for a 13% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. October 3rd: A stronger downwind for markets as volume climbed for the NASDAQ, Dow, and NASDAQ 100 to register a distribution day for each. The S&P was closer to breakeven for volume and hasn't challenged 2007 highs yet. However, markets did enough to maintain Monday's breakouts (even if the Dow dipped below the 14,000 level containing July highs), but these breakouts won't tolerate another day like today. The biggest loser was the semiconductor index as it gave up 2%, it fell back into the clutches of the 50-day and 20-day MAs and is a long way away from July highs. In contrast, the other struggling index - the Russell 2000 - did okay.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: ATHR was a Subscriber pick for September 12th. After an early test of 2007 resistance the stock slipped back heavily to hit its stop for a 7% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. October 2nd: A day of rest after Monday's strong performance. There were minor swings one way or the other, but volume dropped off to weaken the significance of such moves. The best performing index was the Russell 2000, but it still has some way to go before it can follow the Dow, NASDAQ, and NASDAQ 100 to new 2007 highs. Small cap struggles will hinder this rally, but at least the index is heading in the right direction and a break of 856 would be a bullish confirmation signal for the long term health of the August-October rally. The S&P is similarly loitering below just below 2007 resistance, but has less leg work to do to break to new highs; so its performance is not so important as that of the Russell 2000.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: NBG was a Subscriber pick for September 28th. The stock made a modest loss to hit its stop for a 2% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. October 1st: Big gains all around. The best moves came from the Dow and NASDAQ with each finishing at a new 2007 high. The NASDAQ followed the NASDAQ 100 after it made its 2007 closing high last week. Gains in the Tech averages were enough to send the semiconductor index above its 50-day MA. The MACD trigger line of the NASDAQ also supported the breakout with a new 6-month high. A similar MACD breakout occurred in the NASDAQ 100. Small caps [Russell 2000] were not to be left out and pulled away from their 200-day MA, with also a break in the long standing MACD bearish divergence. The S&P managed to clear its consolidation, but remains below 2007 highs. If there was a concern it would be the relatively disappointing volume. Should these breakouts fail it could lead to a swift counter move down as bull traps are created. But for now, bulls are in control.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] continued their push higher. The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) trades above the 60 level - 60 is the typical top level of bear markets, but given this internal bottomed at 20 (a bull market reversal point) look for a move up to 70.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: BIOF was a step too soon. The Monday play hit its stop for a 7% loss. BKCC still has some volatility to contend with. The September 28th Subscriber pick closed for an 8% loss as its stop was swept away. UXG hit its stop as the gold sector was one area to suffer for the day. The stock closed for an 8% loss.

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