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Oct 30th: It looks like a game of one-upmanship; bull-bear-bull-bear-bull sequence of big and bigger one day gains and losses. The net effect is to leave markets unchanged in a sideways morass of uncertainty. Taking a step back from this picture there are still a number of resistance levels to break; and while bulls have the edge with respect to Friday's volume, bears hold key overhead supply levels. In the Dow the markets ended the week a few points shy of two-month declining resistance, above which lies the 200-day MA. On-balance-volume continued its downward slide, even when Friday's strong buying volume is considered. Its MACD is improving, but sits below three-month bearish divergence, as slow stochastics zigzag below its bullish mid-line. The S&P paints a similar picture as it contends with joint resistance of former channel support and the 200-day MA. Its on-balance-volume is not as bearish as that of the Dow, but it still remains below the 20-day MA trigger line. On the plus side, both the Dow and S&P finished the week above their 20-day MAs. Next up is the Russell 2000. It remains debatable whether Friday's close over the 200-day MA also counts as a close over (former) channel support. Bears will look to the sharply declining 20-day MA as an area of stiff resistance which will hem in future gains. Technically, it is contained by resistance lines in the MACD trigger line and slow stochastics.

The tech indices are slightly more bullish in their outlook; The NASDAQ trades above declining resistance of its MACD trigger line, above support of the declining channel, and ended the week above its 20-day/200-day MAs. Friday's inside day could suggest a bullish harami (with respect to Thursday's losses), although technicals are not sufficiently oversold to suggest a strong signal; The NASDAQ 100 is in a stronger position technically - with the index hanging on to its previous net bull phase, even though Friday's gains failed to qualify as a bullish piercing pattern - it could qualify as a bullish harami (but as with the NASDAQ it lacks a sufficiently oversold technical picture to make this a strong signal). The index trades more comfortably inside channel support and resistance, and is only 2 points shy of its 20-day MA. Unfortunately, the tech indices remain governed by a weak semiconductor index; Friday's bullish hammer on oversold slow stochastics should mark a bottom - but when such signals come on a gap down it is the (bearish) gap down which trumps the bullish candlestick; we will know more on Monday's trading.

Of the secondary indicators; the $NASI maintains its bullish MACD crossover along with the $NAA50 ; although strength in the MACD of the $NAA50 is fading. The volatility index has reasserted itself in importance as it threatens a run which could induce a sharp move (usually down). Watch this index closely. If its jumps over 18 we could see a build up of fear in the markets.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: HNT was stopped out on Friday morning - even though it rallied into the close it failed to regain its 50-day MA. The stock featured as a Gold Member pick for July 7th closing for a 13% gain after managing a maximum gain of 30%. It featured as a Breakout for October 3rd and closed for a 6% loss. An injection of volatility into IMMR stopped out the October 27th play and the September 22nd play. The latter for a 14% gain. KONG clipped its stop but finished relatively strong (to close above $12 support) - but for my purposes it is considered a stop hit. The stock featured September 26th for Gold Members. PKI was another stock Friday to hit its stop but close strong. It featured for Gold Members on October 27th. SLR was an oversold play which closed below key $3.59 support to hit its stop. It featured for October 24th.

Oct 27th: It was almost too easy to see coming - but bears didn't get it all their own way. Just as last week's gains were accompanied with insipid volume, so were today's losses. The real movers on the day were in [1] the spike in volatility, [2] the breakdown in the semiconductor index, and [3] the continued struggles of the Russell 2000, Not surprisingly, the tech secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] had the vestiges of a bullish reversal swept away in just one day. The increasing momentum in volatility and the oversold nature of the secondary indicators suggests a swift move down could soon follow; But this should be enough to put in place a decent bottom which could lead to a 3-4 month rally. I am still looking to November for this bottom, but don't expect it to occur next week. Unfortunately, a convincing bottom will depend on strength in the Russell 2000 and semiconductor index, and it is hard to see where such support will come. For the semiconductor index it could be around 383 (closed at 427), for the Russell 2000 look to 570 (closed at 624). My October 5th short index play issued to subscribers remains in effect.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: The day's selling consumed many breakout and Gold Member plays: CRDN tumbled through its stop after early gains couldn't hold following its earnings. The stock was a breakout for October 25th and a Gold Member pick for September 27th. CHIC hit its tightened stop which protected the gains of the earlier Gold Member pick for October 4th. PPDI was another casualty of the day as the FDA rejected its new drug. The stock featured for October 19th. RSYS traded sideways for much of the last 2-months, but it broke support at Thursday's close. The stock featured as a breakout for August 26th. SMSC breakout for September 23rd and October 25th was also stopped out after three days of selling. TRY failed its resistance test for a third time. Support can still be found at $15.80 but the October 26th featured stopped out the earlier features for June 30th and January 20th. OEH featured as an oversold play for October 10th but failed to hold early gains as it corrected off resistance. WITS was a Gold Member breakout for September 29th, instead it left behind a double top at $21.00.

Oct 26th: Resistance continued to play in all market indices as volume climbed. A bearish doji in the NASDAQ at the 50-day MA, and a similar doji at channel resistance of the NASDAQ 100, combined with a weak semiconductor index lessens the significance of bullish momentum in the tech secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ]. Tech markets were not the only ones to suffer. The Dow made a clear bounce off declining resistance as the S&P struggled to hold the 200-day MA - again failing to regain channel support, while the Russell 2000 remains wedged between 20-day MA resistance and the 200-day MA/channel support. What does this mean? Secondary indicators are again primed for a bullish crossover, but a whipsaw signal looks likely given aforementioned resistance. However, secondary indicators are close to a true bottom - the next downswing in the market could be the one to put in a bottom good enough for a 3-4 month rally.

Target hits: BABY was a Gold Member pick from September 20th which hit its price target for a 30% gain.

Stop hits: ADVS hit its stop yesterday but rallied to close above it. For my purposes it is a stop hit. It closed for a 10% loss. The stock featured for October 24th. BSTE featured as a breakout for November 10th 2004, and September 29th. The former closed for a 5% gain and the latter a 7% loss. CVH hit its stop after yesterday's big sell off. The stock featured for September 19th and August 30th, closing for a 5% loss and a 6% gain. NFLX finally succumbed to its raised stop price. The stock featured as a Gold Member pick for September 7th and as a Breakout for May 13th and July 26th. The May breakout closed for a 76% gain (113% maximum), the July feature for a 44% gain, and the September play for a 7% gain. WHI was a Gold Member oversold play from October 24th which hit its stop price for a 10% loss. POSS was a Gold Member short play also from October 24th which closed a couple of cents above its stop price for a 4% loss.

Oct 25th: A better day for the bulls. Expected was the retracement following yesterday's low volume gains - but not was the late afternoon buying which helped maintain markets near yesterday's highs. Volume increased which the bulls wanted to see and helps shore up yesterday's gains as valid bullish momentum. Some might argue today's action completed bearish harami crosses (today's doji; same open and close price, sits inside yesterday's range of its open and closing price) - but none of the markets are overbought enough to suggest this. The only index at resistance is the NASDAQ 100 and this remains the key index to watch for the week. A breakout in this index could see others follow suit. Secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] continued to improve with the $BPCOMPQ the only indicator not to cross its 5-day EMA. Technically, we have yet to see a confirmation of this bullish trend, but another couple of up-days could do the trick.

Target hits: PRLS was a Gold Member pick from October 3rd and reached its price target for a 32% gain.

Stop hits: ALTR was an oversold Gold Member pick from October 20th which gapped below support on heavy volume. The stock was downgraded on poor guidance. EL featured yesterday and didn't hold up a day as it gapped down from the open.

Oct 24th: Bulls must have thought all of their birthday's came at once until they realised their gifts were bought at the dollar store. Solid gains in all markets - the largest one day gains since April - were not supported by the volume necessary to suggest Big Money buying. We may see this supporting volume emerge over the coming days but today wasn't it.

So what did individual markets do Monday? The NASDAQ cleared its 20-day MA with the 50-day MA now in range. Its MACD trigger line and on-balance-volume switched in favor of the bulls. A move to channel resistance looks favored just as the NASDAQ 100 did today. Technically, all indicators in the NASDAQ 100 turned bullish and if it can break channel resistance Tuesday it could go on a run. Unfortunately the semiconductor index gives no indication it is ready to support the NASDAQ 100 in such a move as it languishes below channel resistance and has a whole slew of resistance levels to break before it can match the NASDAQ 100. The large caps still have work to do. The Dow trades below declining two month resistance with only the MACD trigger line turning bullish. The S&P closed Monday right on channel resistance and the 200-day MA; where it finishes Tuesday will be interesting. The early phase of a rally is led by small caps. The Russell 2000 made a solid move, closing over its 20-day MA - but it sits someway short of channel resistance of its own.

Secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] are been watched closely here. I won't be getting too excited yet as a third false signal is possible; although the $NAA50 did reach a low (629) typical of strong bottoms. I am not entirely convinced of a bottom in the $NASI although the bullish divergence in its CCI is a plus.

The key indices to watch tomorrow are the NASDAQ 100 and S&P.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: IRN featured for September 28th as a Breakout, and for August 24th as a Gold Member pick. The company released earnings after the market closed. PCP featured for September 12th and August 29th. There was no news from the company. VECO featured as a Gold Member pick for October 11th; after a quick 10% gain the stock gapped down to hit its stop for a loss on unfavorable Q4 guidance. CNO was a short play which hit its stop price but remained below its 50-day MA. The stock featured for August 9th.

Oct 22nd: A volatile week for the markets left the Dow and S&P near the weeks lows, while the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 struggled to break to their 20-day and 50-day MAs respectively. For an options expiration day volume was relatively light compared to Wednesday and Thursday's up-and-down volatility. On the plus side, the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 managed to hold channel support with the NASDAQ 100 the index most likely to test resistance. But with the semiconductor index struggling below resistance of its former channel it remains questionable how long the tech indices can maintain these levels before retreating to October lows. The Dow looks most vulnerable to further selling; a break of 10,156 could see fear selling spike and a quick test of 10,000. The S&P has found some scrappy support at 1,175, leaving 1,145 the next likely area to watch for support should this give way. Friday's gains in the Russell 2000 looked good on paper, but this index closed the week below its 200-day MA and former channel support.

What of the secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ]? The $BPCOMPQ and $NAA50 ticked up on Friday. The $NAA50, has suffered some intense whipsaw of late, but its MACD, +DI/-DI, and slow stochastics have remained bearish. A similar picture exists in the $BPCOMPQ with respect to these indicators. The CCI indicator is the chief bullish technical indicator for the $NAA50, $BPCOMPQ, and the $NASI; its not a reason to be buying but it is reason enough to start preparing for longside positions.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: Gold member pick WDC failed to maintain its earlier demand and further downside looks probable. The stock lasted less than a day and closed for a 4% loss.

Oct 20th: You win some, you lose some. Yesterday's gains were a false dawn as all three secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] enjoyed another day to the downside - even the $NAA50 reversed (again!) in favor of the bears. The behavior of the Russell 2000 is perhaps the most worrisome given small caps tend to lead bullish rallies and this index looks far, far away from been a leader. Neither tech index [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] inspires confidence along with a lacklustre semiconductor index. Tech closely follows small caps as a market leader, but other than the NASDAQ 100 there is little to recommend here. All is not doom and gloom with the bullish divergence in the CCI of the $NASI holding - but we need more than this to mark a bottom.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: BEV finally hit its stop after two months of losses. The stock featured as a breakout for June 14th. The stock closed for a 10% loss. LSS featured as a Breakout pick for July 20th. The stock closed for a 11% loss. TEX featured yesterday to just hit its stop for a 3% loss. It also featured for July 23rd, and August 1st; closing for a 41% gain and a 7% gain respectively.

Oct 19th: Huge (bullish) reversal day on heavy volume, but there is still plenty of work to do before we can call a bottom. The $NASI and $BPCOMPQ declined in the face of the day's gains which is reason enough to be cautious. Short covering will have been a major contributor to the days volume. What a day like today does do is firm up October lows as a bottom from which we can measure the strength of the next retest. As for resistance we have the 20-day MA in the NASDAQ, semiconductor index, S&P, and Russell 2000, and the 50-day MA for the Dow, and NASDAQ 100. Take this one day at a time.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: GBX from September 21st hit its stop for a 6% loss. LNT was a Gold Member pick which only lasted a couple of days and closed for a 2% loss. IDTI was another near term stop hit, although the stock finished the day on a doji. The stock featured for October 11th and closed for a 5% loss.

Oct 18th: Picture perfect bounces off resistance in the NASDAQ, Dow, and Russell 2000. The S&P failed to make it up to its channel resistance, as the NASDAQ 100 drifted back towards its support as the influencing semiconductor index continued to meander. The $NAA50 secondary indicator flipped back in favor of the bears but is only a few points shy of oversold conditions. Volume increased in all markets - adding another distribution day to the sequence of distribution days the markets have endured over the course of the month. No reason to get excited if you are a bull. As markets approach deep oversold territory there will be two options available; [1] A firm market bottom which should last 3-4 months or [2] A market crash. Crashes occur in oversold situations when all market participants effectively 'give up' (just as blow off runs are triggered at overbought conditions when greed runs amok). Markets are not there yet - but if October reaction lows are lost one could see a rush to the exits. November looks to be the critical month be it bullish or bearish. Stay tuned.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: Yesterday's TKO didn't get out of the gate. It hit its stop for a 6% loss. CW was the selected Gold Member feature for yesterday but it too was stopped out for a 3% loss. HCA was a short play from September 22nd and hit its stop for a 4% loss. PSTI featured as a Gold Member pick for August 17th. It closed for a 6% loss.

One year ago today; Free plays; AXYX featured at $6.25 and now trades at $1.08. UPCS featured at $4.96 and now trades at $8.31. LMRA featured at $7.46 and now trades at $4.58. Gold Member picks; ARTX featured at $1.85 and now trades at $0.63. STST featured at $28.66 and now trades at $27.69. SWN featured as a short play at $21.64 and now trades at $64.83.

Oct 17th: Low volume gains continued to relieve oversold conditions in the markets. In the NASDAQ we had a small hammer at lower channel support and the 200-day MA after a near perfect bounce off the projected target from the reversal head-and-shoulder pattern. The NASDAQ 100 is in better shapes as it trades inside the consolidation channel and above the 200-day MA. But the index cannot escape the light volume. Neither tech index can escape the range bound trading of the semiconductor index - made worse by the increasing bearishness as indicated by its +DI/-DI line. The Dow actually managed an accumulation day but the index is fast approaching the 20-day MA which is typically resistance in downtrends. The S&P has the most wiggle room with resistance still some 10 points away. Further short term gains cannot be excluded but it will some volume for the gains to stick. The Russell 2000 stumbled at the 200-day MA with former channel support lurking a couple of points above the days highs. Its +DI/-DI lies strongly in favor of the bears with a rising ADX line denoting increased sellers strength. There was no change in the tech secondary indices [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] although a small bullish divergence is developing in the CCI of the $NASI as the bullish trigger in the $NAA50 holds (for now). Continue to remain skeptical on the bounce. Trader Mike noted the heavily oversold nature of the 'T2108 indicator' which is a relatively reliable indicator for a market bottom. I still think we have room to move to the downside and would look to November as a time we will see strong buys. The three things to look for will be [1] MACD trigger buy in the $BPCOMPQ, [2] MACD trigger line bearish divergence resistance break in the $NAA50, and [3] A crossover in the +DI/-DI line in the $NASI. These should be accompanied by a 5-day EMA crossover in each of these secondary indicators. Put these three things together and we have our bottom.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: none

One year ago today; Free plays; BBV featured at $14.75, currently trading at $17.20. IUSA featured at $10.39, currently trading at $10.80. PRM featured at $2.47, currently trading at $3.60. Gold Member picks; CYBS featured at $6.04, currently trading at $6.20. FARO featured at $23.48, currently trading at $18.51. QSND featured as a swing trade at $6.13, currently trading at $2.70.

Oct 16th: I have returned from my trip after a missed flight change in LAX. I will be answering emails from the last week over the coming days as I get back up to speed. Friday's action looked a typical relief rally but what it did do was put a near term low in place which we can then use to assess the strength of a retest. The tech secondary indices [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] still don't look oversold enough to suggest a firm bottom, but this will become clearer over the coming weeks. Apologies for the spotty updates over the last 10 days but things are getting back to normal.

Target hits: not checked

Stop hits: not checked

Oct 13th: Bulls made an attempt to grab a foothold, but none of the day's volume was suggestive of heavy demand. The best index on the day, the NASDAQ 100, ended on a 'bullish engulfing pattern' as it regained its 200-day as the heavily influencing semiconductor index rallied off its positive test of the 200-day MA. Look to the these two indices to continue to strengthen over the coming days. The 'bullish hammer' of the Russell 2000 looks to be a false signal although knife catchers may want to look at the S&P as it closed the day on a doji after days of heavy volume selling. If you check the S&P's secondary indicators on my Breakout page you will see these are in deeply oversold territory and are well positioned for a lengthy upcoming bounce. The tech secondary indices [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] are not quite there yet. The $NAA50 has entered solid bounce territory but this does not exclude it from future whipsaw on the next EMA crossover.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: Brief list due to travel commitments; ACN, MO, BJS, SNG, DESC, ET, GRS, JEF, OO, PESI, EPAY, ELY, DADE, HELX, and OXPS.

Oct 12th: The current wave of selling from the last couple of days sent another batch of Gold Member and Breakout picks to the slaughter house. As for the markets we are seeing a rapid deterioration of support and increase in fear as each day piles on the misery. A lack of leadership and a Prudential downgrade of the semiconductor index was good enough to keep the bulls away. Energy services took a move to the downside which diverged with crude oil prices. Sector related stocks tend to lead the underlying commodity. With the XLE bouncing off its 50-day MA we can look to crude oil prices to do likewise. Interestingly, the semiconductor index which gave up channel support so eagerly and foreshadowed the eventual loss of similar support in the tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] has managed to dig in at the 200-day MA - unlike the diving tech indices. If the semiconductor index can hold on to this level it may drive demand for buyers to step in and take the tech indices back to their respective 200-day MAs. Large caps [Dow and S&P] and the small cap index [Russell 2000] have little going in their favor. The Russell 2000 is looking particularly ragged with support at 570 still some distance away. The lower volume in the Dow is the best the bulls can look to. When can we expect the selling to stop? Secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] are pulling away from their 5-day EMAs but still have room to run to reach oversold levels. Not a time to be 'catching-the-knife' here.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: These have been taken over the last couple of days due to travel commitments; AIZ, KEYS, MCK, MTIX, MIL, SPNC, TWTI, PRTR, LFG, SFCC, SHPGY, SRT, TRN, TRZ, WITS, and ZHNE.

Oct 10th: Another day of losses on mixed volume. The semiconductor index was the chief loser on the day as Xilinx warned on a Q2 sales dip. The 3% loss on the day was enough to break channel support. A similar move in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 is a distinct possibility and this will likely keep the bulls in check for another day. Monday's lower volume in the NASDAQ was testament to the disinterest as tests of support are typically associated with increased volume. Secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] continued to slide and technically there is no evidence this is going to change soon. The large caps had another disappointing day as the Dow and S&P made inroads back to last week's lows. The 200-day MA has become critical support in a number of indices including the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000. No need to throwing money at the market yet.

Breakout targets met: none

Breakout failures: HYGS featured for August 31st as it had done before on March 10th. Monday closed on a bearish 'three black crows' sequence which killed the most recent bullish position. The play closed for a 11% loss. ISE featured most recently for October 5th and as a Gold Member play for August 22nd. The breakout play closed for a 5% loss, the Gold Member play for a 9% gain. LF also struggled on its big one-day loss on light volume. Further losses look likely here. The stock first featured as a breakout for August 5th and again for September 16th. The August feature closed for a 6% gain, the September feature for an 8% loss. OPTN was whipped out of its position following an earlier downgrade. The stock featured for September 27th and February 24th. The February feature closed for a 1% loss and the September feature for an 8% loss. AFFM was a Gold Member pick for August 31st which gapped lower on the open but rallied to meet its stop price. The play closed for a 5% loss.

Oct 9th: Thankfully Friday did not bring the kind of carnage experienced over the early part of the week. None of the remaining Gold Member or Breakout plays were stopped out so this was of some consolation. As for the markets, few traders were willing to step up to the plate. Bears won't be tempted to jump in after days of heavy selling and will sit it out until there is a relief bounce to short. Bulls will be conscious of this and will be reluctant to play into the bears hands, particularly as the bulls seven days of gradual buying was so easily undone by two days of selling. Secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] are firmly in the red and bulls who follow these normally reliable indicators will have endured two painful whipsaw periods for September and will be hesitant to jump aboard the next bullish signal. Volume was light - adding to the overall indecision. Some could look to the developing price channels in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, semiconductor index, and Russell 2000 for support, but unfortunately for the S&P this was lost too.

Breakout targets met: none

Breakout failures: none

Oct 6th: Short and sweet for tomorrow as I pick up the pieces left by the beatings in my Gold Member and Breakout picks. It will take the weekend for me to sort through the lists to clear them up of recent victims. There are no breakout stocks for Friday - my scan turned up eight candidates none of which looked particularly attractive (EMFP, GDYS, GNBA, IMMC, NMG/A, SVA, VSAT, VIVI). The story for the week will be the various 'three black crows' left behind in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, semiconductor index, and S&P which will mark supply/resistance on any attempts in these markets to rally next week. The higher volume will be the icing on the cake for the bears. Bulls made a brave attempt to rally into the close - but it remains to be seen if these value buyers would be prepared to hold on a move back to recent lows. Probably the most interesting aspect from the day was the resistance break in the volatility index. Rocky times ahead.....

Breakout targets met: none

Breakout failures: Too many to run through individually but using the 'Search site' link above will give you further information and/or checking my Public Stockchart list (please 'Vote' at the bottom of the page of my Stockchart list). The recent set of victims should be the end of it for a while as bulls attempt a belated pullback; ARTC, BGC, GENZ, GLBL, GTI, MLNM, PDFS, HAWK, SLXP, SMBI, BMRN, CBI, DRRA, ENB, MTLG, NSM, PTMK, TRN, and UNT.

Oct 5th: Probably one of the most painful two-day bull traps. Bears don't have all their own way, chief amongst them was the lack of volume. But it was still a bull psyche killer day. The NASDAQ is at a Custer's last stand at 2,100 as slow stochastics, MACD, and on-balance-volume turned negative. The NASDAQ 100 held onto its lead index title as the days losses were not enough to turn all the technicals sour (but has put them well on their way to doing so). The only index to make modest losses was the semiconductor index which closed below its 20-day, and 50-day MA but is still some 10 points away from September lows. Tech is traditionally seen as a leading sector of bull markets (large caps are always laggards) and if this index can hang on we may yet have a buying opportunity here. Chief losers on the day were the large caps. The Dow and S&P each lost near term support but as lagging indices these will be the first to feel the pain. Former Dow support at 10,350 was of little help today and the S&P cut through whatever support it had (channel support and the 200-day MA). But more worrisome for the bulls was the major swing from 2-month resistance to a loss of near term lows in the Russell 2000. Large cap damage doesn't kill nascent rallies, but small cap damage can be terminal.

Secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] took a painful 6-days to turn bullish, but only required 2-days to return bearish. All three indicators are now back on the bearish side of the camp. Cash is king and bears seem to have it all their own way - but everything is so negative out there that the recent sell off appears too obvious (and markets hate the obvious). There will be further occasions when the secondary indicators will provide better buying opportunities. For those who bought the two 'buys' in September, bite the bullet take the losses and step aside from the market. Keep your exposure low if you still want to be in the market. Short side positions are not necessarily the strongest position to be in here and this could prove to be important over the coming weeks.

Breakout targets met: none

Breakout failures: The Fall Sales came to town and there were plenty of casualties; PQUE was an excellent example of trying to second guess a breakout. Instead of leaping to new highs following recent strength it left behind a very neat double top. The stock featured as a Breakout for October 4th, September 20th, and August 9th. The stock closed for a 6% loss, 13% gain, and a 32% gain. PWR left a bull trap following two days of heavy selling. The stock featured for September 30th and August 31st. The stock closed for a 4% loss and a 6% gain. RIMG featured as a Breakout for September 20th and July 22nd. Each play closed for a loss; 6% and 3% respectively. RSTI hit its tightened stop after some heavy selling on the day. The stock featured yesterday and as a Gold Member pick for July 6th. The Breakout play closed for a 4% loss, the Gold Member pick closed for an 8% gain. SSFT suffered the second day of heavy selling to hit its newly raised stop. The stock featured as a breakout for August 5th and September 19th closed for a 16% gain and a 2% loss respectively. Gold Member pick AHM was an oversold play which nicked its stop after modest selling. It featured for September 30th and closed for a 4% loss. AOI was another oversold play for October 3rd which hit its stop also for a 4% loss. IVN was a failed Gold Member breakout from September 30th. The play closed for a 6% loss. NTGR was another Gold Member breakout for September 13th to struggle and stumble, hitting its stop price for a 7% loss. UHS was a Gold Member oversold play for September 23rd which couldn't stall its decline. The class B stock closed for a 3% loss. VSTA was a Gold Member oversold play for October 3rd couldn't escape the sell off either. The play closed for a 5% loss.

Oct 4th: The markets had threatened a drop for a number of days so today's heavy volume stock sale was of little surprise. What will be important is how the secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] hold up in the face of this selling. Interestingly enough the $NASI and $BPCOMPQ gained on the day, although the most sensitive indicator, the $NAA50, lost a slice of its prior gains. No market escaped a distribution day - the Dow and S&P managed to log a second distribution day in a row. Within markets each had their own story. The NASDAQ rebounded from the head-and-shoulder neckline resistance while the NASDAQ 100 reversed off 2-month declining resistance much as the semiconductor index had done the previous day. The S&P managed to a minor support breakdown along with the Dow. Watch how 10,350 and 1,205 hold as support in these markets. The Russell 2000 had a day similar to that of the NASDAQ 100. So far, what we are seeing is a buyers pullback. When the secondary indicators turn south we will have a shorters market.

Breakout targets met: none

Breakout failures: GES featured as a Gold Member short play for August 19th and September 22nd, hitting its lowered stop at Tuesday's highs. Short side play still looks favored given today's test of the 50-day MA failed to break it.

Oct 3rd: It remains a very tricky market. On the positive front we had a return to bullish conditions following the EMA crossovers of the $NASI and $BPCOMPQ. However, the technical picture of both these secondary indicators remains weak and each is vulnerable to whipsaw. But what may keep the bull's fire stoked is the strengthening bullish momentum in the $NAA50. What of the market indices? Irrespective of their position relative to resistance, all markets are showing bullish technical strength; i.e. each market has issued a MACD trigger 'buy', on-balance-volume sits above its 20-MA, slow stochastics are over the bullish mid-line (50), and with the exception of the Dow, all markets are above their 20-day MA.

What could the bears take from the day? Well the Dow and S&P failed to break resistance, instead both churned around their moving averages on higher volume. The tech indices [NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ] did likewise below 2-month resistance - plenty of volume but not much upward momentum. Only the semiconductor index made an attempt to break 2-month resistance (black hashed lines on Stockchart.com charts) but couldn't hold it into the close.

What to do? Bulls have a slight edge and long side positions are favored given the bullish technicals of individual markets and the position of all three secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] relative to their 5-day EMAs. However, the secondary indicators do not sit at a deep oversold level typical of healthy bottoms and we may be looking at another case of whipsaw as occurred on September 8th. I would keep the bulk of ones assets in cash for now and start increasing market exposure once 2-month resistance is breached in the tech markets, and the technicals (i.e. MACD and +DI/-DI) of the secondary indicators turn bullish. Markets look ready for a few days of downside and this could be a good opportunity to buy as they test September lows assuming secondary indicators hold their bullishness (and by that I primarily mean the $NAA50).

Breakout targets met: none

Breakout failures: CHRZ didn't last 24 hours as it sold off into the last hour of trading, hitting its raised stop. It featured for yesterday and on July 25th. The latter trade closed for a 16% gain, yesterday's trade would have closed for a 5% loss. Dishonorable mention to SYNM which was killed on news it would abandon an appraisal well off the coast of Nigeria. The stock lost 36% on the day. It featured for August 23rd. BJRI was a Gold Member short play for August 29th. Monday's rally and bounce/sell off from the 50-day is still bearish, but for the purposes of my analysis the recommended protective stop price was hit. The play closed for a 5% loss. KOMG from September 21st was another short victim in this whipsaw-like market. It too closed for a 5% loss.

Oct 2nd: Friday continued the trend from Thursday although up side volume disappointed. Bulls sit at an interesting juncture. The NASDAQ is right up against head-and-shoulder neckline resistance, wedged below it and the 50-day MA. On the flip side, the NASDAQ 100 managed to finish the week above neckline resistance and above all major moving averages, but is up against 2-month declining resistance (black hashed line on public Stockchart.com chart). The semiconductor index sits in a similar predicament to the NASDAQ 100 and should be watched early next week for further bullish gains. The large caps [Dow and S&P] managed to string together a number of bullish days, closing over all major moving averages but have yet to break resistance connecting September reaction highs. Monday could be the day as there is no room for further gains without creating a breakout.

The long term picture remains constrained by the secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ]. We still need to see a bullish crossover of the 5-day EMA in the $NASI and $BPCOMPQ with a supporting crossover in the +DI/-DI line which had failed to materialise for the September 8th bullish trigger. Gold member featured stocks should out-perform breakouts over the coming couple of months. The September 16th ETF short play remains intact for now.

Breakout targets met: none

Breakout failures: HURC was a Gold Member short feature for August 23rd. The stock breached near term resistance and closed over its 50-, and 200-day MA, for a new long play using a stop on a loss of $14.80. The company announced record orders during the EMO Hannover show. Look for a move to $19.50. The short play closed for a 9% loss. MCHP was another short feature from September 22nd which closed for a 5% loss. There was no company specific news for the gain. The stock closed the week below its 50-day MA and still has short-side merits even though my suggested stop price was hit. Stubborn bears could run a stop around $31 which is above the upper Bollinger Band range.

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