Home | Stock Picks [$] | Trading Jobs | Links | Sample Newsletter | Blog

User id: member email. Password: gold

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 25th: Bulls should take some comfort in the low volume consolidation around yesterday's highs. There was no bearish cover pattern which has frequently accompanied rallies in the past. With trading volume likely to be very light for Wednesday and Friday I will be holding off the next update until the weekend.

Of individual indices. The NASDAQ finished just below 1,491 resistance (i.e. the former double bottom support); even if there is no volume tomorrow, psychologically it would be important to see this break. The NASDAQ 100 was able to finish with a MACD trigger 'buy' as it confirmed a bullish divergence. The Dow wasn't able to mount a significant challenge its 20-day MA, but it is positioned to do so by the time the week is out. The same goes for the S&P, but like the NASDAQ 100 it enjoyed a MACD trigger 'buy' along with a bullish divergence in the indicator; on-balance-volume also generated a bullish cross of its trigger line. Meanwhile the Russell 2000 closed with a small hammer below October/November reaction lows. It remains the index with the most work to do.

Overall, technicals are turning more positive for the first time since late October, but a major turn in all technicals has yet to occur (the sell in September was the last major technical signal).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 24th: Nice rally, shame about the volume. This week is going to be very tough to gauge the enthusiasm of either buyer or seller. I wouldn't read too much into Monday, only that, like previous rallies, it buys bulls a little bit of room to the downside - not that has helped much in the past. I think this week is about the 20-day MAs. They are important support levels for the intermediate time frame and given we are unlikely to see the volume with Thanksgiving it will be best to consider these MAs as a target zone for any advance. If markets can go into next week with these moving averages breached it will go someway to generating a 'Santa rally'.

Of individual indices, the NASDAQ stopped just below former support - now resistance - of my initial double bottom (1,491). The NASDAQ 100 did likewise at 1,159. I would be surprised if Tuesday saw these resistance levels breached. The tech picture is not helped by weakness in the semiconductor index; it's a long way from its 20-day MA and never got near to forming a double bottom. The Dow regained double bottom support, closing just shy of its 20-day MA. The S&P finished a little lower but along with the Dow it should be the first to challenge the 20-day MAs. The index struggling the most is the Russell 2000; it closed well off former double bottom support and its 20-day MA - but Monday' gains registered a bear trap based on the declining channel (this should mean a rapid rally back to channel resistance c520). Also on the plus side, indices are exhibiting bullish divergences in their MACD trigger lines.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] regained some footing but the Summation Index ($NASI) remained negative.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: CPB made new lows, knocking out its stop to kill the play inside 24 hours. The stock closed for a 6% loss. DUG exited on a break of the 200-day MA; it closed for a 10% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 22nd: Another big swing, this time back in favour of bulls. Whether this proves to be another false bullish signal will depend on Monday. But with Thanksgiving soon upon us it's hard to see how next week's action will tell us much as to the true state of the market. The higher volume, particularly in the Dow and S&P, may have more to do with options expiration than any meaningful action on the part of value buyers. Volume was high in the tech averages (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) but it did not register as an accumulation day as it did on the Dow and S&P. For the Dow and S&P there were strong reversal candlesticks. The Russell 2000 enjoyed a bullish harami while the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 went with small bullish haramis.

Although the strong finish to the day looked like a powerful return of buyers, it only marked a positive test of support of newly drawn down channels for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 and broadening wedge patterns in the Dow and S&P. Markets could rally for the next two weeks and still not break from these intermediate downward patterns. The only positive they give is as a potential short term long trade to resistance of these channels with stops going on a break of Friday's lows. However, the Russell 2000 had sliced through a similar downward channel on Thursday's close and Friday's gains weren't enough to bring it back inside its intermediate down channel - given small caps tend to lead markets it is by no means certain the intermediate down channels in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, or broadening wedges in the Dow and S&P will hold. Again, if Monday doesn't finish higher then the positive tests of support for these indices will be under question.

As an aside, the strong close to Dow on Friday didn't do enough to break closing price resistance at 8,164.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] continued their fall. What measure of double bottom support in the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) was blown away as technicals for the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) all turned negative. For the record, technicals for the Summation Indices have stayed negative since September 15th.

Friday was a day when expectations for a bottom are tempered by similar capitulations and failures over the past couple of months. Monday and Tuesday really need to set a positive tone into Thanksgiving so some measure of value buying can kick in as part of a 'Santa rally'.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: BTIM cleanly sliced through its stop to stop the last of the free stock picks out for a 20% loss, having gained 20% over the first few days. NDN also lost out on a volatile Friday. The October 27th play closed for a 11% loss. NBTB finished well but intraday hit its stop for a 10% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 20th: The pain piled on the bulls with a firm distribution day. This threw the markets beyond support of declining channel lines which suggests an acceleration of the declines. The S&P gave up 2002 lows with consummate ease. The heavier volume does not necessarily help as the weak close doesn't qualify as a capitulation. What it also means is that the Dow and probable Russell 2000, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 will need to break comparable 2002 lows to start a fresh bottoming process. Only a massive one-day counter rally which marked today's loss of 2002 lows as an aberration could save the "bottom is here" thesis that I had favoured since the early October low.

I remember at the time thinking the 2000-2003 declines were bad, but the collapse since September has been something else. To put it in perspective, the S&P has lost in just over one month the same amount it did from the 2001 reaction high to the 2003 low. On a chart it looks like the pen slipped.

This is a golden opportunity to buy for the future, but it's in large part dependent on having money available to do so - and that's a tall order. Seeing the kind of names in the doldrums it reminds me of AMZN trading in single digits back in 2001. There is plenty of value out there if you are prepared to hold your nose and not put all your money to work at once.

The real losers in all this are those in the process of retiring or having retired recently. Those best positioned to benefit are those who are in the early stages of creating their retirement accounts - opportunities like these don't come by very often. Remember, this is a cyclical bear market within a secular bear market - the most damaging and fast moving of weak market conditions.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: BRO was a free pick for November 12th and closed out for a 5% loss. STST clipped its stop after holding up relatively well. It registered as an 8% loss. COBZ undercut its October low and into its stop for a 21% loss. CTBI also crashed through its stop for a 9% loss. SGEN came out the other end of its play with a stop hit loss for a 13% loss. SBNY didn't last either as it ht its stop for an 8% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 19th: The gap and rally ended up a wishful dream as a gap down and collapse was the order of the day. Any standing levels of support for the past couple of months were breached and it looks like 2002 lows are on the cards for the indices. At this point the action has more in common with the absence of buyers rather than a willingness of individuals to sell; forced selling is feeding the decline now. I have redrawn attempts at double/triple bottoms into downward channels. For the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 there are straightforward parallel channels. The semiconductor index accelerated its declines with a new downward channel. The Russell 2000 exhibits something similar but even this may have broken from this pattern. For the Dow there is the possibility of a broadening wedge - a difficult pattern to manage. Similarly, the S&P is developing a broadening triangle. Volume climbed, with the exception of the NASDAQ 100, to register a distribution days for each. Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] accelerated their losses to put them on course to test October lows.

A grim day all around. Can 2002 lows hold as support?

Target hit: None

Stop hit: EWBC hit its stop after pushing below 200-day MA and killing off this play within 24 hours. The play registers as a 7% loss. PRK also hit its stop to finish the Nov 5th play for a 13% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 18th: Support was successfully defended (yet again) as volume rose to mark another accumulation day. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 each closed on a doji which given the circumstances (developing bullish divergences in technicals near major price support) should be bullish; however, if the lows get knocked out then it will be back to the bearish tone of the past couple of days. Another index which finished with a bullish hammer/doji was the Russell 2000. However, it saw a MACD trigger 'sell' to follow the other indices MACD 'sells' yesterday. Tuesday's low matched that of last Thursday; look to the Russell 2000 for leads in the other indices - if 431 fails to hold then expect other indices to follow it down (and quickly too).

Large caps [Dow and S&P] finished slightly stronger, ending the day with modest bullish hammers and making in roads into Monday's losses. Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] hadn't updated at time of writing but additional losses are likely.

Tomorrow will need to see today's lows hold to confirm the reversal potential of the doji. However, the preferred action is a gap and rally to last Thursday's highs.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 17th: Today's action had more to do with technicals than price action. The MACD trigger lines of the NASDAQ, Dow, NASDAQ 100, semiconductor index and S&P all switched to a 'sell' killing what was an early hope for bulls. There are bullish divergences in play for the MACD, but it's going to take a few days to correct the damage done today. In terms of price there is still enough room to last week's lows to suggest today's losses were relatively minor. However, the bullish haramis I was looking for from the indices are no more (a close above the 2-day highs would have been necessary to confirm).

The selling will not have helped the Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] and it has felt like ages when there has actually been a stock to consider as watch list material, let alone a 'buy'.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 15th: Friday's return of weakness only did enough to set up bullish haramis which is good news for bulls. The lack of volume was also a positive for bulls. Not to mention the failure to turn technicals negative was another tick in the bull column (MACDs in particular). The NASDAQ challenged Thursday's highs but didn't get close to testing Thursday's lows or its 20-day MA. The NASDAQ 100 did likewise and finished short of a 20-day MA challenge. The broadening wedge in the Dow placed Friday's action in the middle of this wedge which could see it go either way. However, the Dow and S&P failed in their attempts to break the 20-day MA. The Russell 2000 was perhaps the only index not to create an ideal bullish harami although the trading body of Friday is considered an inside day to Thursday's. Maybe Monday will see the challenges on the 20-day MA which I had anticipated for Friday (or have those tests completed for large caps)?

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] were a mixed bag with another whipsaw ('sell') in the Percentage of NASDAQ stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) - this indicator is building a scrappy base. Surprisingly the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) were relatively unchanged while the Summation Index ($NASI) stayed on the south-side of its 5-day EMA. For the purpose of the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook) I have held my bullish call.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 13th: Thursday was set up to be a disaster zone and that was how the day started, but just as things accelerated downwards bulls stepped in and took over the market to push it significantly higher. The volume and the bullish engulfing patterns which followed should bring some follow through over the next few days - but key to their success will be for the rally to hold longer than just a few days. All previous attempts have been shot down as any gap strength got sold into. Friday is likely to see another set of gaps up, but can they hold unlike previous ones?

So what of these indices. The S&P, Russell 2000, Dow, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 all finished below their 20-day MAs - look for tests of these levels on Friday. Technicals saw no change other than what looked to be pending 'sell' triggers in the MACDs of these indices held off (for now). Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] kept with their whipsaw form with a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA in the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R), but there was no recovery in the Bullish Percents. The Summation Index ($NASI) drifted a point below the 5-day EMA trigger on what looks to be a whipsaw signal

One thing Thursday (or Wednesday for that matter) didn't change was the boundaries necessary for confirmation of a bottom. The head-and-shoulder pattern may be no more, but the double bottoms with the late October lows and the current lows are; November highs are a resistance level for the Oct/Nov double bottom, and the former head-and-shoulder necklines are another - both need to break to be confident of a shift towards buyers.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 12th: Wednesday didn't disappoint in its importance, but it did disappoint bulls. The head-and-shoulder pattern for the S&P was blown away with only a residual chance of the pattern holding in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. The best bulls can hope for is to see October lows hold as support. The Dow and S&P do have the most room in this regard, but bull markets don't emerge from large cap stocks. The Russell 2000 suffered the biggest losses and is well on its way to an October low retest. The sharp series of losses are disconcerting for those looking for 442 to hold as support.

Also on the bad news front was the new closing low in the semiconductor index, look for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 to do likewise. Volume climbed to register a distribution day, although the level of selling was still well below October mayhem levels. Technical damage came with the loss of the bullish divergence in the Russell 2000 CCI with a similar threat in the CCI of the semiconductor index.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] creaked even more, although the Summation Index ($NASI) is just about hanging on to its 'buy' signal.

It would appear from the action in the semiconductor index that new across the board closing lows are likely; look to the Dow and S&P to be the last to do so. Not optimistic for Thursday.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: ADPT hit its stop by a penny. It closed for a 10% loss. UNFI never made it out of its channel, it closed for a 6% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 11th: The head-and-shoulder pattern is under severe pressure with Tuesday's selling, but the indices probaby did enough into the close to keep the patterns valid. Volume climbed to register a distribution day - not the kind of action which bottom watchers will have wanted to see. Because of the angled neckline in the NASDAQ there is more room on the downside (to keep the reversal pattern intact) than there is for the Dow and S&P. The S&P finished just a shade below critical 900 support - it probably did enough to register as a close on this support, but there is no more leeway on the downside for this reversal pattern to hold.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] wavered with the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) and Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) dropping below their 5-day EMAs while the Summation Index ($NASI) slowed its advance. The Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) are interesting on two levels; first, it reversed off what was former bull market support and is now new resistance, but it did so after creating a sizable bullish distribution with respect to the October low and looks ready to back test neckline support around 19%.

Wednesday is set up to be a very big day.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: BBT exited at its stop for a 7% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 10th: A mixed bag of action which had more bearish overtones than bullish. The sizable morning gap was always going to be hard to hold, especially for the likes of the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 where the gap occurred smack on the 20-day MA. The Dow and S&P finished on neutral doji which suggests the market can go either way whereas the Russell 2000 closed on a bearish engulfing pattern.

There was no shortage of economic bad news and the lack of accompanying volume to the selling will bring some comfort to bulls. What of the reversal patterns? The head-and-shoulder pattern is still on course - although there is very little room for maneuver, for example the S&P has about a 1% leeway, not much when you consider the moves we have been experiencing the past couple of months . The Russell 2000 looks most likely to retest October lows as it made the sharpest advanced from those lows. The semiconductor index is closest to a test of October lows but it had the 'mildest' of the declines from August highs so it may make its test after the Russell 2000 does.

Today's candlestick patterns do suggest further downside tomorrow so it will be very important for markets to finish strong, especially if they suffer heavily into afternoon trading; the reversal patterns are dependents on it.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 8th: An important day for the indices as buyers made a low volume return. The lack of enthusiasm on the part of buyers suggests it will be a slow crawl higher. From a technical perspective, many of the indices closed with bullish haramis - for these to be true watch for a higher close Monday, preferably taking out Thursday's highs. A gap open would reaffirm strength.

The S&P held onto 900 support which is critical for the head-and-shoulder reversal pattern I talked about in my blog posts. Gains in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 failed to challenge their 20-day MAs, while the semiconductor index finished furthest away from it. Likewise, the Russell 2000 fell just short of its 20-day MA test. Meanwhile, the Dow and S&P closed on their 20-day MAs.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] remained mixed. The Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) climbed above its 5-day EMA, reversing the prior 'sell' signal. The Summation Index ($NASI) rose. But the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) fell. For the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook) I have held my bullish call.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 6th: A second day of declines kept the markets on track for a head-and-shoulder reversal pattern. But the cost came in the higher volume distribution; the first such distribution day after three or four accumulation days. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 dropped below their respective 20-day MAs, giving the moving average little pause. Neither the Dow nor the S&P paused at their 20-day MAs as they passed clean through. The remaining Russell 2000 also lost 20-day MA support. This left all indices with short term downtrends.

Technicals for all indices held firm in the face of two days of selling. Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] were mixed. The Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) reversed through its 5-day EMA to return to a 'sell' signal. The other two indicators weakened but will require more than a couple days of selling to truly reverse.

The expectation is for Friday or Monday to see buyers step up and retake control; if they fail to do so it will put the aforementioned head-and-shoulder pattern in jeopardy.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: MDVN didn't last a day as it dropped into its stop for a 13% loss. ROCM also exited at its stop for a 12% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 5th: A more lively reaction to the election results saw two to three days of gains undone by one. Volume was light so the drops to the 20-day MA in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are likely to worsen before getting better. In my latest blog post I talked about the possibility of a head-and-shoulder pattern in the markets which would mean drops to the early October lows (the low prior to new low in the latter part of the month). I also talked how extended the S&P had become relative to its 20-day MA - another reason Wednesday's drop (and the degree of loss) was not unexpected. The Russell 2000 was another index to fall to its 20-day MA and I would look to 468 as a support low (still a good 50 points away from Wednesday's close).

The sharp declines did little to change the technical picture but on the anticipation of further losses these might develop into something different. Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] had not updated at the time of writing but given their prior bullish momentum they probably added another couple of points.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 4th: Today was unlikely to take attention away from the election so to see the market rise and rise with accumulation was a little surprising. However, it was not all a bullish show; from a relative strength perspective large caps (Dow and S&P) regained their leadership role over small caps (Russell 2000) with tech (NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ) jumping small caps too to leave the most bearish alignment for markets {Large caps > Tech > Small Caps}. This certainly puts the recent series of gains in jeopardy and perhaps there will be a 'sell on the news' reaction to the election result.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] all increased - the Bullish Percents rising sharply, improving the behind the scene strength of this bottom. Expect a busy day Wednesday.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 3rd: Today was a rare non-event with a very tight intraday spread on very low volume. The only change came with a bullish cross of the on-balance-volume trigger line in the NASDAQ but there was very little else to say about Monday.

Given Monday ranked as the fifth 'gain' in a row and end-of-day doji left many of the indices in trading limbo the likelihood of a couple of down days cannot be ignored. It will likely take the confirmation of election results to kick into play the next round of price action, this action equating to upside.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldNovember 1st: Respectable work by bulls with the main leg work done in the Russell 2000. Volume was lighter - weakening the value of the gains although there were registered accumulation days for the Dow and S&P. The tech averages (NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ) pushed breaks of their 20-day MAs to match earlier breaks in the Dow and S&P. The Russell 2000 was another index to slice through its 20-day MA, but there is nearly 100 points between it and the 50-day MA above; so much to do! The semiconductor index was the only index to disappoint with its close on the 20-day MA, how will it respond Monday?

Technically there were a couple of changes. First there was the MACD trigger buy in the Russell 2000 and the shift in relative strength from tech to small caps; the overall relationship is much more bullish {Small caps > Large caps > Tech}. Then there was a bullish cross of on-balance-volume for the NASDAQ 100 - reflecting a move towards accumulation.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] finally saw the bullish cross of the 5-day EMA in the Summation Index ($NASI) as the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) confirmed a double bottom - this is excellent news for the potential NASDAQ double/triple bottom. In addition, there was a MACD trigger 'buy' for the $NASI.

There was nothing to suggest a general weakening in the market so I have kept with the bullish call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Stockchart public list - please remember to vote!

Back to top

Disclaimer

The information found on the Fallond Stock Picks Inc. website (www.fallondpicks.com) has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any information in this site without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by Fallond Stock Picks Inc. or any of its employees, Fallond Stock Picks Inc. makes no representations or warranties or takes any responsibility as to the accuracy of completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. accepts no liability to the recipient whatsoever whether in contract, in tort, for negligence, or otherwise for any direct or consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use of the information provided on this website, or of the recipient relying on any such recommendation or information (except insofar as any statutory liability cannot be excluded). Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice. Fallond Stock Picks Inc., or their respective affiliates or their officers, directors, analysts, or employees may have positions in securities referred to herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities mentioned herein. This document does not purport to be a complete description of the securities market or developments to which reference is made. There may be instances when fundamental, technical, and quantitative opinions may not be in concert. There are risks inherent in all investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain persons. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange, rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. and their affiliates make no representation that the companies which issue securities which are the subject of their research reports are subject to, or in compliance with certain informational reporting requirements imposed by the Securities Exchange act of 1934. Sales of securities or services covered in any report or on the web site may be made in only those jurisdictions where such securities or services and Fallond Stock Picks Inc. are qualified for solicitation. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. does not warrant, represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information, content, advertisements, or Third Party Sites and Content (as defined below) (collectively, the "Materials") contained on, distributed through, or linked, downloaded or accessed from Fallondpicks.com, nor the quality of any products, information, or other materials displayed, purchased, or obtained by you as a result of an advertisement or any other information or offer on or in connection with Fallond Stock Picks Inc. You acknowledge that any use of or reliance upon any Materials shall be at your sole risk. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. reserves the right, in its sole discretion and without any obligation, to make modifications to any portion of the Fallondpicks.com web site or publications at any time. You acknowledge and agree that you bear responsibility for your own investment research and investment decisions, and that Fallond Stock Picks Inc. shall not be held liable by you or any others for any decision made or action taken by you or others based upon reliance on or use of information or materials obtained or accessed through use of Fallondpicks.com. Prior to any transaction in securities, you should consult with a qualified professional securities or financial advisor.

Copyright 2004-2008 Fallondpicks.com