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Nov 30th: More of the same from tech [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] and small cap [Russell 2000] indices as channel support held. The semiconductor index was the days star performer as it regained 478 support - helping to build support in tech markets. The tech secondary indicator, $BPCOMPQ, added its weight to tech support as it breached the August-September resistance line, removing one of the key supply areas for this indicator. The whipsaw friendly $NAA50 is back in the green after an earlier 'sell' signal. Large caps [Dow and S&P] were the real losers on the day as each lost their channel support, although the 20-day MA is fast coming to the rescue and should act as support in these indices. Technically, the only sell signal came in the MACD trigger line of the NASDAQ 100 (although the NASDAQ also looks vulnerable in this regard); but there is as yet no confirmation in this signal from on-balance-volume or slow stochastics.

Target hits: CELL was a Gold Member pick for November 1st which hit its target price after closing on a bearish shooting star; a good time to take profits if long. The stock closed for a 34% gain.

Stop hits: AIC featured as a Gold Member pick for October 13th and a breakout for November 23rd. The former closed for a 3% gain, the latter a 11% loss. BBSE was a bulletin board play from November 29th which failed to follow through on its breakout although it did end Wednesday on a bullish hammer. The play closed for a 12% loss. LRCX clipped its raised stop - although the stock closed on a bullish doji. The play looks to have suffered from an overly sensitive stop. The stock featured for November 21st and October 14th. The former play closed for a 2% loss, the latter a 9% gain. PBY was another stock to get hit with a sensitive stop price as the stock retreated on low volume to negate its earlier breakout. Support at the 200-day MA held into the close. The stock featured for November 25th as a breakout, closing for a 4% loss. It also featured for September 28th and this play closed for a 4% gain. ATSN was a Gold Member pick for November 25th. The stock hit its stop price after the fourth day of selling in a row. It closed for a 9% loss.

Nov 29th: Bulls could take some measure of comfort from Tuesday's action as markets failed to topple over themselves into a slew of selling; instead, positive economic data kept in check any killer move by the bears. Technically, markets are holding support as defined by narrow (and sharply ascending) channels drawn from October lows. Even the vulnerable Russell 2000 managed to cling on to channel support. Tech secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] continued to slow as trendline resistance in the $BPCOMPQ and $NASI strengthened. Volatility is also starting a new uptrend - although there have been many false dawns in this indicator as it sits at historically low levels. Whether bulls can hang on remains to be seen. Tuesday did rank as a distribution day in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, but the measure of loss was not extreme and the semiconductor index has held up relatively well, even though it lags the key tech indices. Large caps [Dow and S&P] had a quiet day with little change in their technical indicators. Markets do sit at a point for profit taking and this in itself marks a top. What happens on the retest of last week's highs will be interesting. As I mentioned yesterday I thought we would have a sharp drop and bounce, but Tuesday's action did not lend itself to such a decline. A test of the 20-day MA is a definite; but whether this moving average comes to the market, or the market drops to the average is not yet clear. Next to look for will be how the indicators sit with respect to the next reaction high - will there be divergence in the technicals on a new high in price? If markets were to hold tight to last weeks highs then perhaps not, this would favor another leg to the rally. If such a rally were to materialize it would likely be a blowout rally to top finish the 4-year October 2002-2006(?) bull cycle. Next year's House elections could be the sell-on-the-news event to complete the top. Speculation for now but current action could be the seed of this final rally.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: AFFX featured for November 22nd but suffered its fourth day of selling in a row to hit its stop price for a 6% loss. VIGN was a Breakout feature for November 14th and closed for a 9% loss.

Nov 28th: No surprises on the day's sell off as we started the 'told-you-so' pullback. Watch for a short sharp correction back to the 20-day MA before markets can attempt a low volume retest of last week's highs. The retest of the highs should create the bearish divergences in the MACD, slow stochastics, on-balance-volume and secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] to complete the top. The $BPCOMPQ has reached resistance as defined by the reaction highs of August and September, as the $NAA50 flipped to a sell signal; although both indicators still hold bullish technicals. My breakout page is rather sparse on quality with penny stocks the predominant bullish plays (= rampant speculation; topping behavior). The real loser on the day was the Russell 2000 - the one index that needed to hold on to its prior lackluster gains was walloped by profit taking. There is some support nearby as marked by the sharply ascending channel illustrated on my chart, but it is unlikely to hold out for long. The large caps [Dow and S&P] were least affected by the selling - another sign of rotation into safety and a further sign that a top is in place.

Target hits: GTE featured for November 17th as a Gold Member pick, rallying to hit resistance and its target price. The stock still looks to have legs, but taking profits here would do no harm. The stock closed for a 42% gain.

Stop hits: none

Nov 26th: There was not too much we could take from the last two days of market action. A big sell off was unlikely during the holiday period (barring a major world event) so the coming Monday/Tuesday's action should set a course for the markets into Christmas. Markets are in need of a pullback and their respective 20-day MAs looks the most logical place for support. It remains a traders market - buying-to-hold at these levels remains a risky venture. Commodity-based stocks (energy and precious metals) will likely provide the best long term (investment) opportunities, although commodity prices, like general equity markets, are close to completing a 4-year bullish cycle. Whether markets enter the next 4-year bearish cycle with a strong downtrend, or (more likely) further sideways action with a bearish bias will depend on the future health of the global economy.

At least for now there is no immediate reason to sell; technicals as measured by the MACD, on-balance-volume, ADX, and slow stochastics remain bullish, and the secondary technical indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] are holding a bullish bias; 2006 could be an interesting year.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: ADTN featured as a short play for November 16th but managed a counter move to break above the 50-day MA and declining resistance from October to hit its stop price. The stock is a good long side play with a stop around $28.88 and a price target of $54.

Nov 22nd: More gains for the markets on strong accumulation volume as the fed minutes revealed rate hikes will become more sensitive to incoming economic data on the risk of "going too far with the tightening process". The increase in volume was unusual for a Thanksgiving week and it will likely taper off into Friday's action. On the technical front there was a resistance break in the MACD trigger line and on-balance-volume of the NASDAQ - a confirmation of bullish strength. New 6-month highs in on-balance-volume and the MACD trigger line were also found in the NASDAQ 100. The semiconductor index continues to lag the tech indices but there was enough momentum to break 478 resistance but 486.60 resistance held into the close of trading. Of the large caps, the Dow marked a breakout in on-balance-volume as part of an earlier resistance breakout in the MACD trigger line, following an similar move in the S&P. The small caps, Russell 2000, closed over 682 resistance, leaving 688 the last point of supply for this index - but small caps still lag the other indices.

The longer the markets continue in this vein, the closer they map the 'Santa' rally of 2004. Unfortunately this rally could run out of steam before Christmas - although there is nothing in the individual technicals of the markets (on-balance-volume, MACD, and slow stochastics), or the tech secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ], to suggest this collapse will be tomorrow. Hold and trail stops.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: HIV clipped it stop after a relatively heavy volume day, but the stock remains neutral (for now). The stock featured for October 24th as a breakout. AITX hit its stop after a promising start (max gain of 16%). The stock featured as a Gold member pick for November 2nd. SINT was another oversold play to hit its stop following 4 days of weakness. The stock featured for November 9th. SPTN was a short play from August 5th which has been covered early due to increasing technical strength. The play closed for a 16% gain.

Nov 21st: Not a bad day for the markets; the bearish black candlesticks in both the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 were negated by Monday's gains; both large cap indices [Dow and S&P] chalked up strong gains; the Russell 2000 similarly did not disappoint, although it still lags the other indices - on the plus side, the bearish divergence in the CCI was negated.

Volume was on the limp side which can be viewed as a mixed blessing - on the negative side there are fewer buyers, on the plus side there is plenty of sideline money wondering if they should join in. Technically there are no signs of weakness in any of the markets and the secondary tech indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] continued to advance. Hold current positions but remain wary on entering new positions.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: RJET featured as a Gold Member pick for November 7th, crashed through its stop price for a 7% loss. NCR was a Gold Member short play from July 1st which was covered for a 13% gain.

Model portfolio: CTCH added.

Nov 19th: We are starting to see a series of gaps appear in the tech markets [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] which is often a sign of exhaustion runs. The increase in volume is another sign a rabid buying; soon buyers will run out of ladder rungs to climb. Friday's black candlesticks in both tech indices are common tops under these conditions; when bulls are unable to maintain early day enthusiasm and succumb to selling pressure as the trading day wears on. The lack of consolidation in these markets makes finding support harder to define. At least for the NASDAQ 100 there is clear support at 1,628, for the NASDAQ it is nearby at 2,219 but it won't take much selling pressure to break this support. At least on the technical front there is no immediate sign of weakness; MACD, on-balance-volume, and slow stochastics are strong with no hint yet of bearish divergence (which will need a retracement and higher high in the market, and lower high in the technical indicators - so this in itself is bullish). The semiconductor index added its weight for support with a solid break of resistance as secondary tech indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] remain healthy.

The large caps continued their advance. Both the Dow and S&P sit in clear air, breaking outstanding resistance without the runaway gaps of the tech indices. There is more substance to the buying and there could be further support as money rotates from tech issues to more 'low risk' large caps. Small caps still have work to do; the Russell 2000 closed the week above channel resistance, but there isn't the same level of demand as there is for large caps, or techs. Bulls need to tread carefully here. There is no bull market without leadership from the small caps; large cap rallies come in mature, late cycle bull markets - such as we have now.

It doesn't take more than a quick scan of the headlines to see the various pressures acting on the market: [1] higher commodity prices - not just in oil, gold, or sliver - take look at copper prices; the raw material of the tech industries, there is little sign of a slow down here and it will impact on the bottom line in term of earnings and consumer pricing, [2] weak government - markets hate one-party politics, next years elections should see Democrats take control of the House and markets will react positively to the news - but that's a year away, [3] excessive government spending - Iraq, and Katrina relief, will be a constant drain on limited resources, unless the printing presses start rolling overtime which will add to [4] inflation - not the government speak version, real inflation; think of the costs of cinema tickets, eating a meal out, airline fares (do you really think the airlines are going to drop the oil surcharge?), CD prices, public transport tickets, even the humble stamp price. Too many dumb people in power, and too many spinsters to spread the word that everything is fine. Don't believe the hype, which leads to [5] rising interest rates, even if the Fed stops raising rates don't expect everyone's pains to go away. Mortgage's still have to be paid and salaries are unlikely to rise fast enough to cover the increase. Add to that a credit-consumer society, and an ever expanding demand servicing monthly contracts (mobile phone, cable, utilities) and it is not to hard to see where the cash crunch will come from. Now ask yourself where do markets go from here?

There will always be opportunities to make money, but it will likely not be in the sectors the TV hypsters want you to believe it will be. Commodity-based securities remain the best bet for the long haul as an investment (i.e. for retirement accounts). Alternative energy and biotech should also be strong and a good area for speculators. Big pharmaceutical companies will rebound for those who prefer large cap stocks. Going back to commodities, commodity prices are very close to hitting a '4-year cycle top' (oil may have done so already). If you look at the long term charts for gold and oil, you will see oil started its run from early 1999, whereas gold started its move in 2001. Prices in these commodities could retrace substantially (fibonacci retracements up to 62%) over the next '4-year cycle' period - this should not be viewed as the end-of-the-line, but as probably the best opportunity to accumulate stocks in these sectors for the next (likely largest) leg of the rally. A hurt world economy will take its toll on commodity demand and lead to falling prices, but once the various players start ramping up production it will become a race to buy ever scarcer (and more costly to extract) raw materials.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: none

Nov 17th: Bulls put the bears to the sword with solid gains all round. The only index to miss out on the action was the semis, which is all the more surprising given the leadership in the NASDAQ 100. The NASDAQ managed to close a point over 2,219 resistance on higher volume, registering a belated breakout relative to the NASDAQ 100. The Russell 2000 finally managed to break from its declining channel, clearing the four point line which comprised channel resistance. Next up was the S&P and the Dow - both marked breakouts: the Dow finally closing over 10,700, the S&P closing above channel resistance of its own. Technicals remain firm in all markets with no hint of bearish divergence, therefore it would not be unexpected to see new highs off the next pullback (when it comes). This is the good news. The bad news is markets remain overextended in the short term; the prior three days of pullback really didn't do enough to shake the weak hands and we can expect retail buyers to continue to drive a 'Santa' rally with the Big Money happy to sell into them. This does not mean one can't make money following this trend. Contrarians will consider the consensus for a pullback (I haven't seen many commentators recommending a buy here) a reason enough for this rally to continue. What to do? Trail stops on all positions and if buying, buy stocks with a relatively low capital risk. For my breakout plays I am featuring current Gold Member picks from this summer and fall.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: ADCT was a short play from August 18th but its heavier volume rally through the 200-day and 50-day MA is reason enough to switch to a longside play. The play closed for a 9% gain. IWA was an oversold play from November 7th which continued with its break of support yesterday.

Nov 16th: Gold and silver were the flavors of the day as inflation concerns bit the market. Because of this I have featured a couple of gold stocks in my free breakout section; not including those available on my public Stockchart.com list: GFI (I hold a position in this), BGO, KGC, SSRI, SIL, and PAAS.

Bulls attempted a stand at a number of different levels; in the case of the NASDAQ it was the reaction highs of September, for the Russell 2000 it was at the 20-day/50-day MA, and for the S&P it was October reaction highs. None of these levels look particularly compelling given the overbought nature of the markets. However, the position of the NASDAQ 100 does fit with bullish action; as long as 1,628 holds as support bears will have a tough time shaking the apples from the tree. Unfortunately, it is a lone beacon in the night. Secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] are hanging on to their net bullish status - although the $NAA50 flipped negative yesterday.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: LWSN as featured for October 18th hit its raised stop on the second day of selling for the stock; it closed for a 1% gain. PMACA over-stretched its pullback to hit its stop for a 7% loss - although with the 50-day nearby at $8.66 it is not dead-and-buried with respect to the bulls. It featured for November 7th. LYO Gold member long signal from August 26th was stopped out on the downside price break from the triangle consolidation. Look for a retest of $24 The long play closed for a 4% gain. RAVN was stunned by a major sell off; not only did this stop out the Gold Member play from November 1st but also the long play from the Model Fundamental Portfolio.

Nov 15th: The bears took the first shot as they chipped away at bullish resolve. The real hit came in the Russell 2000 as yesterday's losses accelerated. Not to be excluded, the Dow managed its own day of disappointment with a failed attempt to break 10,700. Volume crept higher in all markets, signaling a day of distribution (i.e. Big Money selling) in all markets. For the S&P this marked the second day of distribution in a row. The failed test of resistance yesterday and Tuesday's selling pressure would have forced many short term traders to switch from long to short. Long term buyers and investors will look to the secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] with interest; so far only the $NAA50 has indicated weakness. Given technicals of secondary indicators have breached a number of important resistance levels there should be more support for current long side positions than there was for the two previous October 'buy' signals.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: GPXM featured as a penny play for September 26th but it failed to set the world alight, closing for a 17% loss (such is the risk of penny stocks). MEDI was stopped out from its raised stop. It looks set to test its 50-day MA; the stock featured for September 8th, 26th October, and November 11th as a Breakout play, and as a Gold Member play for April 22nd. The Gold Member play closed for a 34% gain. The Breakout plays closed for a 15% gain, breakeven, and a 4% loss. CA was a Gold Member feature for September 24th way back in 2004, but it failed to set the world alight, closing for a wimpy 6% gain. CHAR was a short play from October 13th which managed to rack up a 26% gain before rallying to hit its stop, resulting in a 13% loss.

Nov 14th: The holiday Friday extended into Monday with some lackluster trading. The chief concern on the day's action was the reversal off resistance in the Russell 2000; all of Friday's narrow gains were gobbled up leaving behind a bearish engulfing pattern - not the kind of action you want to see at resistance, and certainly not the leading action of a bull market.

In terms of volume action there was modest accumulation in the Dow; but the 11 point gain which did enough to register the gain, was not enough to push the index over resistance. The S&P's 1 point loss registered its slightly higher volume as distribution; but like the Dow, the S&P couldn't break resistance. This form of action is typical of churning as the smart money offloads to the dumb money. The smart money can easily jump back in with little net loss if there is enough buying momentum to continue the rally beyond resistance.

Bulls can take heart from the NASDAQ 100 which has so far maintained last week's breakout, but will be pressured by a struggling semiconductor index and a relatively disappointing NASDAQ. Everyone appears to be waiting for the pullback, but no one is too keen to set the ball rolling - in case they get left out of the next upward surge.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: MHX got clipped with its overly tight stop. The stock was a Friday feature for Monday - it registers as a 5% loss.

Nov 11th: A holiday Friday was never going to set the markets alight and it was interesting to see prices drift upward instead of down, as is oft the case when there is an absence of buyers; a retail driven rally such as Friday's leaves markets vulnerable to Big Money selling. What was important for today was where markets finished the week at; channel resistance for the S&P, 10,700 battle line for the Dow, and channel resistance for the Russell 2000. The NASDAQ still hasn't advanced enough to challenge new highs, but the day's light gains were a step in the right direction.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: none

Model portfolio: NTRI reached its price target for a 44% gain.

Nov 10th: Full steam ahead??? Thursday's buying had the looks of too much, too fast - but there was one aspect of the days trading which was unmistakable: the breakout in the NASDAQ 100. Strong bull markets need tech and small caps to lead; certainly tech is doing its bit (the NASDAQ sits some 25 points away from a breakout), but small caps are having a rougher time of it. What the markets need most of all now is for 1,628 to hold as support in the NASDAQ 100 while the Russell 2000 works a breakout. Focusing on the large caps is not so important in the early stages of a rally. In defense of the large caps, both the Dow and S&P had solid days; opening near the days lows, but rallying to exceed not only yesterday's shaky highs, but the highs of the last few days on strong volume.

What one doesn't want to see is a 'bull trap' in the NASDAQ 100; such an event would quickly kill attempts by other markets to rally, and send prices scurrying back to October lows. I have not mentioned the secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] since the bottom was confirmed on November 2nd - this is simply because there is little to say about them at the current time. One interesting side show is the increasing strength in the precious metal sector, most notably in the silver stocks (PAAS, SIL, and SSRI); if you want to play safe - these look the best place to be.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: CKH featured for August 11th and closed for a 7% loss after earnings failed to set the world alight. ABNK was a short play which finally hit its stop after weeks of tight action. It featured for September 21st. ASPM finished the day on a bullish hammer, but not before the November 3rd play hit its stop. The closed for an 8% loss. TSAI was a recent short from November 8th which crept over its 50-day MA and therefore its stop.

Nov 9th: Wake me up when this is done. Large caps are closer to a reversal as early gains during the day couldn't hold; both the Dow and S&P ended the day near its lows. The tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] marked little change; although bulls will take heart from improving strength in the semiconductor index - its close over the 50-day MA sets upper channel resistance as its next price target. The Russell 2000 closed up slightly, but no failed to challenge resistance, or test support.

Target hits: CENT was a featured short play from August 29th it reached its target for a 18% gain.

Stop hits: HLF featured as a Breakout play for November 7th, it closed for a 4% loss.

Nov 8th: We are looking set for a quiet week into the long weekend; on the negative front there is housing woes; on the positive front there is declining oil prices. Bulls will want to see how recent gains hold, while bears will want to see broader weakness before getting gung-ho on a decline. The likely net effect is for low volume declines into the end of week, with the action picking up next week. Thursday could provide a nice buying opportunity if markets dip into the light zone marked in my public Stockcharts.com list - but it will take two big down days to do so (not necessarily on heavy volume).

Target hits: none

Stop hits: DFG featured as a short play for Tuesday but got whipped on its tight stop - the stock remains bearish.

Nov 7th: Not much to add to Friday's events - still awaiting a pullback to mark a buying opportunity. The lighter volume leaves fewer bulls partaking in the buying which will catch up with this market sooner rather than later. Only the Dow registered an accumulation day which could still see a test of 10,700. On the laggard front: both the semiconductor index and Russell 2000 failed to take advantage to catch up with the tech and large cap indices.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: ARBX actually stop hit yesterday but it actually looks better for bulls on today's action. Featured for November 3rd.

Nov 5th: Markets finished the week on the up, pushing through a number of resistance levels and leaving the markets well positioned for further gains. Technicals sit in the green in all markets with the exception of the semiconductor index; weakness in the semis lingers like a bad odor in an otherwise improving market. The question now is how the next pullback will unfold; will it maintain techinal strength? or will a more substantial retreat force prices below October lows? The secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] have completed all points to form a bottom. The nature of this bottom will play it itself over the coming months, but the status of the secondary indicators at the time of the revesal does not lend itself to a lasting rally. In any case, long side plays will have the strongest merits.

As for individual markets; the NASDAQ 100 is on the verge of closing at new 52-week highs and has adopted the role of leader (a good sign in a nascent rally). The point-n-figure chart triggered a spread triple top breakout on Nov 3rd with a target of 1,820. The NASDAQ switched to an ascending triple top breakout on Nov 2nd with a price target of 2,250. Channel resistance was breached in both tech markets. Pullbacks to the 20-day MA (based on current fibonacci ratios) will provide opportunities to take long positions in these markets. Large caps closely follow the tech indices; the Dow ended the week above its 200-day MA, the S&P above its 50-day MA. The Dow has struggled in the 9,700-10,700 range for the best part of two years and won't generate much excitement until this range is comprehensively breached. Even with these lingering doubts the Dow triggered a triple top breakout on October 31st with a target of 11,200. The S&P still has channel resistance to breach and hasn't the same support levels to fall back on as the tech indices do. Another index which unfortunately hasn't adopted the role of leader is the Russell 2000 and sits in much the same predicament as the S&P (with intact channel resistance).

Precious metals continue to pullback in an orderly fashion; look for gold to make its way back to the 200-day MA while silver has both the 50-day and 200-day MA to catch its fall. Precious metal stocks have lead base metal prices in their decline, although some: like BGO, have remained strong.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: AZPN was a Gold Member pick for September 29th. The stock closes for a 6% loss. BDN was an oversold play for November 3rd which hit its stop for a 3% loss. MNTG hit its stop after it featured for October 31st.

Nov 2nd: The good days keep on rolling for the bulls as another layer of resistance was peeled away. Solid volume was the icing on the cake as green became the color of the day. Even the semiconductor index joined the fun as it thrashed through its 200-day MA to close the day at its 20-day MA. However; channel resistance in the NASDAQ, but not the NASDAQ 100 interestingly enough, will give the bears another opportunity to stall things Thursday. Unfortunately, it is weakness in the semiconductor index which keeps a lid on wild enthusiasm for the rally. The large caps: Dow and S&P, continued their good work, although the Dow spent another day below its 200-day MA. The Russell 2000 also managed to clear 648 resistance and its 50-day MA, brining channel resistance around 670 into range. I don't know if it is good or bad to hold a niggling doubt about the merits of this rally; I will be more confident once I see what shape the next pullback makes. Tech and small caps have to lead and other than the NASDAQ 100 I am not seeing this broad leadership.

What also makes me edgy is the failure of the tech secondary indicators to reach deep oversold territory; the $NAA50 managed it (if a little erratic), but neither the $NASI nor the $BPCOMPQ reached a level oversold enough to suggest this rally can last much beyond Christmas. All three indicators managed a bullish cross of their respective 5-day EMAs which is normally a good buy trigger when all three are in alignment (as they are now). All three secondary indicators managed a MACD 'buy' signal, with the $BPCOMPQ managing to clear resistance as bound by its MACD trigger line, with the $NAA50 likely to soon follow. In summary, market health is now bullish, and pullbacks into the blue zones as marked in my QQQQs, DIAs, and SPY charts should provide decent long-side opportunities. Its a weak buy signal given only one of the three secondary indicators reached a deep oversold territory.

Target hits: none

Stop hits: JUPM

Nov 1st: All three tech secondary indicators sit above their respective 5-day EMAs, normally a sign of a bottom. I am waiting for a confirmation break of MACD trigger line resistance in the $BPCOMPQ and $NAA50 to reduce the risk of whipsaw as seen in two earlier (false) signals in October. Tuesday's Fed rate hike has left the markets at a point of indecision as early gains were wiped out; but not to the extent a reversal was triggered. In the NASDAQ the 50-day MA continues to act as resistance. In the Dow prices dropped below the 50-day MA but held support of declining resistance. The NASDAQ 100 was a little more fortunate as the 50-day MA held as support, but volume was lighter than Monday's and lower relative to the NASDAQ. The Russell 2000 didn't budge from 648 resistance, nor challenged the 50-day MA. The semiconductor index made modest losses to close further away from its 200-day MA, and well away from its 50-day MA. Finally, the S&P did little to threaten its 50-day MA, although volume did drop from Monday's trading.

A bottom in November remains the most likely scenario and the next pullback should provide some decent buying opportunities. The semiconductor index remains the index most likely to spoil the fun for the tech markets and there will be a need for leadership from the Russell 2000 if one is to see an upside move longer than a simple relief, or 'Santa' rally. I am looking for Gold Member picks to continue to outperform my free Breakout selections as has been the case for October (so far, although it is still early days).

Target hits: none

Stop hits: LEAP featured as a breakout for August 15th and as a Gold Member pick for July 25th. SPSS featured as a Gold Member pick for April 19th, and as a Breakout play for July 25th, August 12th, and September 30th. The Gold Member play closed for a 30% gain, the latter plays for a 9%, 1% gain, and a 10% loss. AXL just hit its stop at the days lows; it featured as a Gold Member play for October 20th, it closed for a 5% loss.

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