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Breakouts
for Feb 1st: There were over 70 stocks on my breakout scan but very few of them were at stages which made them attractive buys. So once again I will be featuring current plays and looking to ride these as high as possible by using stops. The
first pick, WIRE, I am using as a cautionary tale. The stock has just nicked a breakout and is ideally priced as a 'pivot buy' (if using Bill O'Neill's method) from Tuesday's close, with a stop price which is in excess of the recommended 7-8% but can easily be adjusted to suit. The stock still garners interest in the media, and carries a high Investors Business Daily rank. The chief concern for this breakout is the large bearish divergence in the MACD, supported by a weaker divergence in on-balance-volume. The weekly chart also shows major resistance at $28 dating back to 2004. But if it can break above $28 it would complete a 22-month long cup-and-handle pattern and bring $50 as a price target into range. For now, use the higher stop to protect the earlier positions from September and November and either: [1] look to add on a pullback to $26, or [2] Buy and/or add on a break of $28. The
second pick, MCRI, has so far been mixed in its climb above $24 (former key resistance from late 2004/early 2005) with strong accumulation in the form of its rising on-balance-volume, but significantly lower volume averages from when it traded in late 2004. From a pure price perspective it should be good to test $50 - which is the measured move target from the lows of the 2005 base and a projected target from the point-n-figure target. It remains to be seen how the litigation annoucement released at 8pm Tuesday evening impacts the price. As a new breakout buy I would be hesitant here as it has emerged from a weak base; but I would use the higher stop to protect the November and December positions. The third
pick, NAVG,
inched a low volume breakout from its January base. The stock is a Subscriber pick from December 6th. Earnings are the big upcoming event, set for February 15th - but given the lack of PR (the last news from the company was released in November) one cannot expect substantial price moves. As with WIRE there is a lingering bearish divergence in the MACD trigger line and an on-balance-volume line in decline (=distribution). The stock still holds to its ascending triple top breakout from December 20th with a priec target of $49.
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