The S&P edged over its 20-day MA intraday, but by the close it finished below the 20-day MA. The Dow similarly struggled to make it past its 50-day MA, but volume was on the light side. There was modest technical improvement with bull strength crossing bear strength [+DI > -DI]. The NASDAQ 100 enjoyed the best gains with a higher volume accumulation day that led to a cross of the on-balance-volume trigger line. The Russell 2000 looked ready to crack through its 200-day MA, but it fell at the last to close just below. Supporting techncicals saw some improvement with bull trend strength taking precedence as the ultimate oscillator returned to overbought levels. The semiconductor index was unchanged.
Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] strengthened enough to see the Summation Index ($NASI) cross above the 5-day EMA, but technicals failed to improve.
It was the same story for the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) and Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R). The gains were enough to recover the intermediate bullish picture and put the market back on top watch.
Stop hit: MPET crashed through support and into its stop. The May 20th Subscriber pick closed for a 13% loss.
May 28th: More light, but higher volume for Wednesday. The
NASDAQ finished with a small doji with its MACD trigger line nestled on rising support connecting January-March support. The
Dow spent a third day below its 50-day MA. Technicals are mostly bearish and those which aren't (on-balance-volume) are at best neutral. The NASDAQ 100 continued to hold its 200-day MA. Its MACD is also on a positive test of January-March support and it remains the best positioned of the indices to push higher, although considerable bearish pressure exists from the other averages. The
Russell 2000 exists in a no-mans land between the 50-day and 200-day MA with only a breakdown of April-May rising support to give it context. The semiconductor index is similarly caught in a quandary after an impressive run from March. The S&P takes after the tech averages with its MACD returning to January-March support while the index lingers around the 50-day MA. The on-balance-volume breakout also holds.
Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] might see some bullish challenges on 5-day EMAs after last week's bearish crossovers. Technicals suggest otherwise, which will mean more trouble for the
NASDAQ (and likely other indices too).
SD made it to its price target. The April 10th and April 29th Free plays closed for a 27% and 17% gains respectively.
Stop hit: PG drifted in a sideways pattern to kick out its February 13th Subscriber pick for a 3% loss.
May 27th: Holiday trading remained the day's theme, but bulls looked to be the first ones back from their weekend. The NASDAQ climbed above its 20-day MA once again as the NASDAQ 100 comfortably worked itself off its 200-day MA. The Dow struggled to reclaim any average, although the S&P neatly found support at its 50-day MA. The semiconductor index held its 20-day MA and with the 200-day MA overhead it will be interesting to see how it copes with the second test of this average. Not to be left out, the Russell 2000 - like the
NASDAQ - finished above its 20-day MA. If there was a sour point it was the lack of change in weakening technicals of the averages. The overall volume was also disappointing.
Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] fell slightly, maintaining their bearish crosses of 5-day EMAs. The intermediate term trend remains down, but these breadth indicators still have some upside room, so the rally which started in March might yield higher prices in the markets.
Stop hit: None
May 25th: What was expected to have been a quiet Friday turned into a little bit more. Worst affected was the
Dow; it gave up dual support of its 50-day MA and a former resistance line (now support) connecting early- and late-February highs. In addition, supporting technicals turned all bearish - the first of the indices to do so. The S&P wasn't as bad given its breakout in on-balance-volume held on along with the 50-day MA - both bullish. There was also support from the April reaction high, but I would consider this to be minor support. The low volume also assisted in keeping the damage low. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 struggled as each gave up its 20-day MA. The 200-day MA can't help the NASDAQ, but the NASDAQ 100 can still lean on it;
Friday's low volume doji was key in this regard. The Russell 2000 also gave up 20-day MA support but has room to maneuver down to the 50-day MA. This bit of breathing space could prove important for bulls.
Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] there were further deteriorations of technicals for the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) after last week's bearish cross of its 5-day EMA. Similar damage was done in the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R); only stochastics prevented a confirmed 'sell' trigger for thtis breadth indicator. For the first time since the middle of April there was a bearish cross of the 5-day EMA for the Summation Index ($NASI), but unlike May this was accompanied by a firm MACD trigger 'sell'.
Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] have fallen short of typical bear market tops (and are a long way from bull market tops), suggesting the current decline could develop into a sizable pullback, but is not a complete breakdown of the early year rally. For the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook I have changed my outlook to bearish, but it is not one I consider to be a strong signal.
Stop hit: ATN finished on a doji but also exited its May 19th stop for a 6% loss. FIF traded in a relatively narrow range, but it was enough to exit the May 5th Subscriber pick for a 7% loss. PDS exited its April 15th Subscriber play at its 20-day MA; the Subscriber pick closed for a 7% gain and a later May play closed with a 5% loss.
May 22nd: Yesterday's selling was the real news. On Thursday, markets took a breather but it did little to reverse the technical damage in the markets. Over the last two days there were MACD trigger 'sells' for the Russell 2000, semiconductor index, S&P, NASDAQ and
NASDAQ 100; following the earlier one in the
Dow. This convergence of 'sell' triggers is another good reason for some profit taking. Adding to bull's misery was the loss of MACD trigger line support connecting January-March lows for the
In terms of moving averages; there were losses of the 20-day MA in the S&P,
NASDAQ 100; positive tests of the 200-day MA for the
NASDAQ 100, 50-day MA for the
and 20-day MA for the semiconductor index. The drop was enough to push short term bearish conditions into potential bearish intermediate ones.
Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] weakened to the extent there was a firm bearish cross in the 5-day EMA of the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R), with the remaining two breadth indicators struggling to hold their 5-day EMAs.
Time to tighten the belts
Stop hit: LUK lost its most recent breakout from May 16th to close the two earlier plays. The May play closed for a 5% loss. The two April plays close for a 17% gain and a 2% loss.
May 20th: Further weakness has seen 200-day MAs firm as resistance. The
NASDAQ drifted below its 200-day MA on lower volume; leading to a sell trigger for on-balance-volume. The
Dow eased away from its 200-day MA, undercutting its 20-day MA in the process. Volume climbed markedly to register a distribution day leaving no doubt who took Tuesday's honors. Although the NASDAQ 100 held on to its 200-day MA, its leading breakout for on-balance-volume collapsed on the third day of selling in a row. Also taking it hard on the chin was the semiconductor index. It followed through on its bearish inverse hammer, dropping sharply below its 200-day MA. The Russell 2000 was least affected by the sell off and still held a measure of support (735). The closing doji represents balance between bulls and bears which is more than could have been said about the other indices. The S&P was lightly grazed; the 200-day MA remains problematic, but the on-balance-volume breakout holds.
Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] didn't move much on Monday, but Tuesday is likely to see further pressure on 5-day EMAs support. The Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) is at bearish top levels, although the bullish percents have plenty of room to run. Time for some profit taking?
Stop hit: CYBS hit its stop to close the May 19th pick out early for a 8% loss.
May 19th: It was interesting to see the indices struggle at their 200-day MAs, although it wasn't all bad. The
NASDAQ was unable to hold early gains, but did finish the day above its 200-day MA. The
NASDAQ 100 had enough breathing space to avoid a loss of its 200-day MA. The semiconductor index probably had the most bearish close given the broad intraday range; its bearish inverse hammer suggests a swing back in favor of bears - but given the gains this should be of no surprise. However, its 200-day MA held as support. Large caps were less fortunate. The Dow made a second run at the 200-day MA (the first came at the end of April), but again failed at the finishing post; closing with a bearish inverse hammer. This is not good news for the index and a run at the nearby 20-day MA looks likely. The S&P closed with a bearish gravestone doji bang on its 200-day MA. It still has the comfort of an on-balance-volume breakout, but its a small comfort. Finally, the Russell 2000 touched its 200-day MA, but wasn't able to break it.
Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] hadn't updated at time of writing, but likely finished flat or slightly lower.
Stop hit: SVNT was a Subscriber pick for May 5th after a second day of losses. The stock closed for a 9% loss.
May 17th: Friday had the makings of a bear free-for-all, but bulls were able to step up and bring indices back towards the day's highs. Volume climbed in line with options expiration, so it was difficult to say what the real underlying volume was. There were no significant changes for the indices; the
NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 kept their run above the 200-day MAs going, while the S&P and
Dow remained just below theirs. There was a leading breakout in on-balance-volume for the S&P as it closed at a new 6-month high; this accumulation should help it pop over the 200-day MA. It followed an earlier MACD trigger 'buy' for the index.
Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] maintained their bullish run. The Summation Index ($NASI) lies 184 points away from bearish overbought levels (but 684 from bullish overbought), the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) have the most room to run with 9 points to typical bearish reversals, but 29 to bullish ones, and finally the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) which have touched levels associated with a bear top, but lies 10 points from a bull top. Remember, negative divergences can play out for a number of months before the indices roll over. The indices are getting closer to amber levels, but there is still enough to keep the bullish call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).
Stop hit: None
May 15th: A respectable days work by bulls as indices cracked through their 200-day MAs. It wasn't all fun and games, although there were universal gains for the averages; the Dow stopped just shy of cracking its 200-day MA and volume was well below the selling of three days ago. The S&P finished 5 points from its 200-day MA, but on-balance-volume is very close to a new 6-month high and the MACD reversed back in favor of a 'buy' trigger which will help the challenge on the 200-day MA. The Russell 2000 was unable to break its 200-day MA, but also finished only 5 points away. Tech took most of the glory; the semiconductor index, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 all soared. This too should help the other averages move higher. Technicals are all well placed with the past 3-4 days of volume helping to establish new bull trends in on-balance-volume. Only the MACD trigger line of the Dow is negative.
Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] all pushed higher yesterday and I suspect it would be more of the same today. All are getting closer to overbought levels, but aren't there just yet. Early warning signs for bearish crosses of 5-day EMAs look to be on hold for now.
Stop hit: None
May 14th: Positive inflation data helped spur intraday breaks of 200-day MAs, but by the close of business the indices, with the exception of the
NASDAQ 100, were back below 200-day MAs. The
semiconductor index reversed right off its 200-day MA, leaving a bearish inverse hammer. It is questionable whether Wednesday's gains registered as consolidation breakouts for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, or whether the Russell 2000 still held its breakout. The NASDAQ got a third accumulation day in a row, while the NASDAQ 100 went with a distribution day - but it's really a coin flip given the points difference at the close.
Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] hadn't updated at time of writing, but 5-day EMAs are again on watch and from that, supporting indicators.
Stop hit: None
May 13th: It looked like bears were to make a run at the bulls, but bulls weren't having any of it as indices closed near their highs. There was even enough to suggest breakouts in the
Russell 2000 and semiconductor index. Volume edged a little higher to suggest a modest accumulation day for the NASDAQ, but volume was well below the frenzy of January's trading. Technically, the MACDs of the indices in combination with the directional index (ADX) give the best measure of rally strength; only the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and
S&P (just) are in confirmed bull rallies. The
Russell 2000 is only a short step from a confirmed rally, but the Dow is weakening along with the S&P - so look for large caps to drift sideways. As long as the speculative indices push higher the action in large caps is of less importance. For action at the 200-day MAs it will be important for the
NASDAQ 100 to move away from its 200-day MA which will help the other indices break through theirs.
Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] had reversed earlier bearish crosses in the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA
($NAA50R) and Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ), although the MACD 'sell' trigger for the
Stop hit: None
May 12th: Except for the lack of volume, Monday's gains would have been considered very solid. There was enough action to generate a modest accumulation day in the NASDAQ with a reversal of its recent MACD trigger 'sell'. The 200-day MA remains overhead to pressurize bulls. Best performing index was the
NASDAQ 100 which fell just shy of a break to new closing highs, but pulled away from its test of 200-day MA support; a bullish sign for the NASDAQ with respect to its potential break of its 200-day MA. It was helped by bullish pressure on a 7-day consolidation in the semiconductor index. The
Dow and S&P worked themselves off their 20-day MAs and are building a challenge of their 200-day MAs, but earlier MACD trigger 'sells' held. The Russell 2000 ran into resistance at 734 with the 200-day MA gradually falling on its way to meeting with it. The index came close to reversing its MACD trigger 'sell' - but didn't quite have enough to do so.
Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] hadn't fully updated at time of writing, but the Summation index ($NASI) added enough to lessen the risk of a bearish cross of its 5-day EMA.
Can bulls make this rally stick? 200-day MAs becoming critical.
Stop hit: None
May 5th: Low volume losses didn't change things from Friday. No index lost more than 1%, or took a technical hit to suggest a swing one way or the other. If there was a concern it was the failure of the
Dow to crack above its 200-day MA; something it had managed to do intraday Friday. On the positive front, on-balance-volume for the NASDAQ 100 cracked to a new 6-month high - the first index to suggest strong accumulation. New found strength in the semiconductor index helped in this regard. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] had not updated at time of writing but were likely little changed.
Stop hit: WPI hit its stop on the second day of losses. The 30th April Subscriber pick closed for a 8% loss.
May 4th: What gains there were, weren't enough to break through 200-day MAs (Dow and S&P), while other indices closed relatively flat. Volume was light, irrespective of index gains or losses. Technicals held firm, if somewhat overbought in the short term. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] rose for another day, maintaining prior bullish momentum. Friday's close gave no reason to shift from a bullish call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).
Stop hit: None
May 1st: There was no shortage of action in the markets. Leading the pack was the higher volume break of the NASDAQ 100's 200-day MA, helped by big gains in the
semiconductor index. The Dow negated yesterday's bearish gravestone doji, although volume was a little disappointing given gains in NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, not to mention the failure to break the 200-day MA. The
Russell 2000 has been going back and forth with new highs, but remains contained by 734 resistance and the 200-day MA overhead. The S&P had a decent, if unspectacular day; rising nicely but failing to nudge past the 200-day MA as the
Dow has done. Certainly Thursday's action put the next test of the 20-day/50-day MAs on hold for a little bit. With the break of the 200-day MA for the
NASDAQ 100 and the nearly break for the
Dow, it will be up to the
NASDAQ, S&P, and to a lesser extent, the
Russell 2000, to follow suit.
Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] continued their ascent with room to go higher, so look for the NASDAQ to break above its 200-day MA as the NASDAQ 100 has done.
Stop hit: None
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