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Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 31st: More accumulation and more new highs - when will it stop? The biggest winner on the day was the semiconductor index as it made up for yesterday's disappointment at been left out in the cold. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 were next in line with new resistance breakouts to leave 2,594 and 1,921 as the two new support levels for these indices respectively. The NASDAQ managed to combine its breakout with a MACD trigger 'buy' - a nice confirmation signal. If one was to try and fault tech gains one could cite the relatively minor gains on what was a substantial increase in volume (and therefore, supposed demand). Perhaps something more associated with offloading of shares to weak hands rather than buying to hold? I had noted in my blog post today about the series of bearish candlesticks the NASDAQ has produced since May rolled in, and I still can't help smell a fish in this index even if the technicals say I'm wrong (on-balance-volume has been picture perfect in supporting the rally). The Dow has enjoyed the cleanest of the rallies and Thursday's doji is more neutral in tone given the relative lack of other weak candlesticks in its recent past. Large cap pessimists would look to the flattening trends in on-balance-volume for both the Dow and S&P (actually, with a 'sell' trigger in the S&P) that a top of substance will soon be in place for both of these indices. Small caps [Russell 2000] brushed such concerns aside as they put some distance from former broadening wedge resistance - now support. It is hard to be optimistic when the market rises as sharply as it has with little pause for breath - but it is the general lack of optimism such as this which has helped keep this rally tick along.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] all advanced, but none have breached recent resistance, the next big test for these indicators.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: ADCT suffered a substantial loss after a failed test of the 200-day MA (a classic falling-three-method combination). The stock featured to Subscribers for January 22nd and again as a Breakout for April 17th; the former closed for a 6% gain, the latter for a 5% loss. ACUR was a speculative Subscriber pick for May 29th and hit its stop for a 9% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 30th: Wednesday's action was a real surprise given the sell off in Chinese markets prior to the market open. There was widespread strength all around, with small caps [Russell 2000] and large caps [Dow and S&P] doing particularly well, each closing at new highs (all time highs in the case for large caps). If there was a fly in the ointment it would have been the relatively lackluster volume. Yes, the day did register as an accumulation day, but the volume was well off that from last Thursday's sell off. In addition, the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 fell just shy of new highs, remaining pegged at resistance, while the semiconductor index was left in the cold, caught in a no-mans land between the 50-day and 200-day MAs. The good news was the bull traps triggered by last week's sell off in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 was negated, and instead a bear trap was created in the Russell 2000. Large caps remain the place to be and it is hard to say when this rally will stop given supporting technicals are in good shape - only a sideways pattern in on-balance-volume for the S&P may be getting in the way of things, but this is a minor concern and the same pattern is not so readily apparent in the Dow. The other issue to consider was whether the Russell 2000 broke resistance of its broadening wedge. On the basis of its chart is a couple of points above resistance, but it wouldn't take much to reverse the move.

The other area of strength comes from the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ]. All three internals are trading above their 5-day EMAs, completing an intermediate bottom - although these crosses come in an area closer to overbought than oversold territory which is likely to cap the next rally.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: PTNR enjoyed a great run but finally clipped its most recent stop (but without looking technically broke - if the 50-day MA gives way it would be toast, but it hasn't happened yet). The stock featured as a Subscriber pick for February 2nd and as a Breakout for April 27th. The two plays closed for a 30% and 4% gain respectively. BGP was a Subscriber pick for May 24th which disappointed on earnings to hit its stop for a 5% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 29th: Tuesday was an extension of Friday's trading except with a slightly higher level of accumulation volume - but emphasis on the 'slightly'. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 climbed back above their 20-day MAs, while the S&P was able to hold its 20-day MA, but there was no conviction to the buying. The semiconductor index made it back to its 50-day MA only to close the day a little shy of an upside break. The Russell 2000 actually managed a MACD trigger 'buy' and if it wasn't for the proximity of broadening wedge resistance it would be looking quite good. Also looking surprisingly good were the Nasdaq market internals; the Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) which along with the Nasdaq percentage of stocks above their 50-day MA ($NAA50R) finished above their 5-day EMAs, but the former did so from a position of oversold technicals - most notably the supporting rise in the Ultimate Oscillator. Improving Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are usually a good sign of an intermediate to long term bottom - these should be watched closely for a potential long side position with stops on a break of last Thursday's lows.

Trader Mike talked about a potential "Falling Three Methods"; if this proves to be the case then expect another modest up day Wednesday before bears return on Thursday - this would likely negate the long side play as indicated by the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] above.

P.S. I have just seen the futures after the Chinese market suffered a big hit. Look for a gap down at the open - will bulls buy it, or will bears force it down even more?

Target hit: none

Stop hit: TSS suffered three days of losses in a row to bring it back and through its May 23rd Subscriber pick stop price. The play closed for a 4% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 27th: Ho Hum... It was to be expected after Thursday's shin dig of a market that Friday was to deliver little. The gains looked good on paper, but there was little done to reverse the damage the previous day. Volume was also well down - reducing the significance of the buying. Tuesday will give a clearer idea as to the extent of Thursday's damage. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] all declined, keeping in line with weakness in the NASDAQ.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: none

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 24th: I thought it was going to be a quiet day! Higher volume selling spread through the markets, hitting the Russell 2000, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 hardest, but did enough damage to break the Dow and S&P too. What of the damage? For the Russell 2000, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 there were bull traps all round - the Russell 2000 also confirmed the broadening wedge as the dominant pattern, negating the handle+breakout it could have otherwise been. The Dow triggered a 'sell' in its on-balance-volume trend - the last such trigger was the 'buy' in March. The 'sell' trigger followed the earlier 'sell' in the MACD. Large caps [Dow and S&P] have support of the 20-day MA to lean on of which the S&P finished the day at. The S&P has already suffered a channel breakdown and 'sell' in its MACD and on-balance-volume indicators and this will likely lead the Dow down through its March-May channel, beyond its 20-day MA and on to its 50-day MA. The damage in small and tech averages was enough to hand back relative strength leadership to large caps {Large caps > Small Caps > Tech} - a more bearish alignment for the markets - ending a 2-day bullish spell. The semiconductor index breezed past its 50-day MA and is well on its way to January-April support. This could spell bad news for other indices looking to find support at the 50-day MA which after today's action is the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100.

Not surprisingly, the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] turned south, negating bullish crosses of the 5-day EMA for the Nasdaq bullish percents ($BPCOMPQ) and the Nasdaq percentage of stocks over their 50-day MA ($NAA50R).

On a purely percentage basis a 10% trim in the markets would drop the markets as follows: NASDAQ @ 2,341, the NASDAQ 100 @ 1,733, the Russell 2000 @ 761, the Dow @ 12,261, and the S&P @ 1,379. This could produce double bottoms for the Russell 2000 and S&P. A larger 25% drop would bring: NASDAQ @ 1,951, the NASDAQ 100 @ 1,444, the Russell 2000 @ 635, the Dow @ 10,219, and the S&P @ 1,149.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: LFC was a May 14th Subscriber pick which knocked its stop price from the test of 50-day MA support. The play closed for a 7% loss. WWE was a long play for April 12th and a swing play for May 21st. The latter play broke into a short play, the former was stopped out for a 5% gain. ZION was a Subscriber pick for May 17th. The stock lost 200-day MA support to hit its stop for a 1% loss. WBSN disappointed from its March 13th Subscriber play after an initial positive test of resistance turned into a break of 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs. The stock closed for a 2% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 23rd: Alan Greenspan's comments were attributed to the late afternoon fall, but it is easier to take money off the table and come back Tuesday, irrespective of who says what about the market. There were some important changes in the indices disguised by the relatively ho-hum trading. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 registered distribution days on bearish higher volume, but neither index violated technical support or suffered significant technical damage. The semiconductor index gave up 492 support and has only the 50-day MA to look forward too before the drop down to the former channel and/or 200-day MA. The same could not be said of the Dow which churned (bearish) around 13,525, only to trigger a 'sell' in the MACD - the last signal in this indicator was the 'buy' mid-March, which at the time was an excellent 'buy' signal - will it have marked a good time to 'sell' two months down the road? The trading in the Russell 2000 left the handle / broadening wedge question un-answered - but the failure of bulls to hold the break of broadening wedge resistance suggests the bears have it right here. Where bulls will find comfort will be from the minimal technical damage done to the Russell 2000. The S&P had a relatively quiet day with the tight action registering a bearish churning day much like the Dow - but had triggered a sell in its MACD a couple of weeks back when it lost support of its former rising channel.

The Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] kept pace with recent behavior and did not signal any significant change.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: NXXI clipped its stop on intraday lows. The May 1st Subscriber pick closed for a 11% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 22nd: Another day for tech [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] and small cap [Russell 2000] leadership to the extent markets are aligned in their most bullish form: Small caps > Tech > Large caps. Volume was more mixed with a modest accumulation day for the NASDAQ 100, but not the NASDAQ. I highlighted two points in my blog post which could be significant for the remainder of the week: [1] the Dow has reached its projected target derived from the March lows and [2] the Russell 2000 closed at a point which could define a major break of resistance (835), or be the final test of resistance in a more volatile - and potentially bearish - broadening wedge. Wednesday could see some interesting action in the Russell 2000 and I would consider 835 critical on both counts; if Tuesday was a traditional handle-consolidation-breakout then 835 cannot be violated on a closing basis; if the Russell 2000 has mapped a broadening wedge then 835 should not hold up as support for long. Looking at the Russell 2000 technical picture it appears bulls have the edge with the relative shift in overall market leadership back to small caps and a MACD trigger 'buy' - so the broadening wedge may turn out to be a false pattern. As for the Dow it might be topped out, but there is still some 30 points of room for the S&P to match its returns. The semiconductor index is stuck to 492 support as short term stochastics [14,3] dropped to oversold levels. The 50-day MA is nearby to lend a hand.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] continued their advance as the bullish percents ($BPCOMPQ) joined the percentage of stocks above their 50-day MA ($NAA50R) above the 5-day EMA. There was also a bullish uptick in the supporting ultimate oscillator of the $BPCOMPQ, but other technical indicators are in neutral territory with a bearish bias. The next few days are unlikely to see any big changes in the run up to the long weekend.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 21st: It was a catch up day for the tech [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] and small cap [Russell 2000] averages, with the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 ending the day on new multi-year highs. The NASDAQ 100 is perhaps in better shape as it trades inside its March-May rising channel, a support level lost by the NASDAQ. The Russell 2000 may have left a bear trap as it regained March-May support, but was unable to break 835 resistance. The good news for bulls is that the last five weeks has developed a solid handle, hemmed in by the 50-day MA and 835 resistance, which could be a good launching pad for further gains. Large caps [Dow and S&P] were mixed although CNBC changed ticker to quote the S&P at a record high versus its previous Dow ticker. The S&P was the only index to register an accumulation day - which leaves some doubt as to the veracity of gains in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. There was no change in relative strength with large caps firmly in front of tech and small caps - when a sizable correction comes (>10%) it will likely be large caps which will lead the market back higher.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] all gained, but only the Nasdaq percent of stocks above 50-day NA ($NAA50R) was able to regain its 5-day EMA, but is well below resistance set by April-May highs. There is little evidence from the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] that the parent tech averages have much to look forward too. Add in a volatility level ripe for a bounce and you have a recipe for some concern. But it is these long standing doubts which have helped fuel the rally as bears refuse to throw the towel in.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 19th: Bulls made some modest gains in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 as short term resistance was breached to the upside on higher volume (although options expiration will have skewed the volume totals). The semiconductor index spent another day around 492 support, but the 'spinning top' doji reflects indecision on the part of bulls and bears. The Dow and S&P had no such concerns as each closed on new 52-week highs; the former with little in the way of resistance to stop it, the latter actually contained by former channel support - now resistance. The Russell 2000 experienced something similar as it finished on dual resistance of the 20-day MA and former March-May support, but it was able to hold support of the 50-day MA for another day. Supporting technicals offer little to cheer although the CCI indicator had climbed off oversold levels in an early 'buy' trigger - but other technicals (eg. MACD and stochastics) are a long way from doing likewise.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] suffered key losses as downward trends accelerated across the board. The $NASI also broke below the bullish zero line to leave it in a standing decline towards bullish -800 territory. I don't believe the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 will be able to hold April/May reaction lows in the face of such weakness and a move to the 50-day MA looks favored at this point for these averages.

Although the S&P has been minimally impacted by the events of tech and small cap indices I remain in bearish mode for the 4-week Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll. Chasing performance will only work for so long as February's correction illustrated - that one day sell off did enough to erase almost 3-months worth of gains (ironically, the two weakest indices: semiconductor index and Russell 2000 were barely scratched by the February sell off). As a final comment, volatility is oversold and close enough to wedge support to suggest another surge is on its way.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: CETV was able to find support at the 50-day MA on a bullish doji, but it hit its stop before doing so, closing the May 4th Subscriber play for a 6% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 19th: Bulls made some modest gains in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 as short term resistance was breached to the upside on higher volume (although options expiration will have skewed the volume totals). The semiconductor index spent another day around 492 support, but the 'spinning top' doji reflects indecision on the part of bulls and bears. The Dow and S&P had no such concerns as each closed on new 52-week highs; the former with little in the way of resistance to stop it, the latter actually contained by former channel support - now resistance. The Russell 2000 experienced something similar as it finished on dual resistance of the 20-day MA and former March-May support, but it was able to hold support of the 50-day MA for another day. Supporting technicals offer little to cheer although the CCI indicator had climbed off oversold levels in an early 'buy' trigger - but other technicals (eg. MACD and stochastics) are a long way from doing likewise.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] suffered key losses as downward trends accelerated across the board. The $NASI also broke below the bullish zero line to leave it in a standing decline towards bullish -800 territory. I don't believe the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 will be able to hold April/May reaction lows in the face of such weakness and a move to the 50-day MA looks favored at this point for these averages.

Although the S&P has been minimally impacted by the events of tech and small cap indices I remain in bearish mode for the 4-week Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll. Chasing performance will only work for so long as February's correction illustrated - that one day sell off did enough to erase almost 3-months worth of gains (ironically, the two weakest indices: semiconductor index and Russell 2000 were barely scratched by the February sell off). As a final comment, volatility is oversold and close enough to wedge support to suggest another surge is on its way.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: CETV was able to find support at the 50-day MA on a bullish doji, but it hit its stop before doing so, closing the May 4th Subscriber play for a 6% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 17th: Today was a rare event for the markets given the action over the last couple of weeks as they traded in a tight range. Only the semiconductor index posted a sizable loss (>1%) as it closed right on 492 support. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] all weakened to the extent the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are favored to fall more. But large caps [Dow and S&P] finished at the upper end of Wednesday's range and look set to climb higher - thereby increasing the divergence between large caps and Tech/small caps. The Russell 2000 attempted another test of its 50-day MA and is looking vulnerable much as it did at start of 2007 - can this shape a credible bounce? The MACD trigger line is not in as good as shape as it was in January but this could change with further sideways action between 835 resistance and the 50-day MA. It remains a sketchy market for anything bar large caps.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: ORB was the only exited position on the day. The May 1st Subscriber pick closed for a 5% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 16th: For the past week bulls have struggled to undo the efforts of bears. Wednesday was no exception has sizable gains were undermined by weak volume. There were some positives; notably the positive test of channel support in the NASDAQ 100, the successful test of the 50-day MA for the Russell 2000 (take this as a cue for other markets to test this average), and a confirmation of 492 support in the semiconductor index. To a lesser extent, the NASDAQ was able to regain 2,534 support (although TraderMike considers 2,525 as significant) and both the Dow and S&P did much to reverse Tuesday's bearish inverse hammer.

Unfortunately, Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] did not waiver from their bearish descents, suggesting Wednesday's gains were just a blip in a larger decline. For this to change the market will likely need another couple of days worth of buying to reverse this trend. Weakness in the Russell 2000 is particularly troublesome as market leadership typically comes from small cap stocks and there is no leadership here.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: The drip losses continued for my stock picks. SPEC was a Breakout feature for May 7th but the stock closed for a 10% loss. APPB was a Subscriber pick for April 30th but after 6 days of weakness it fell back into its earlier base closing the play for a 5% loss. GRA cut below its 50-day MA and into its March 30th stop; the earlier December 18th play closed for a 27% gain and the latter March play for a 4% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 15th: Tuesday saw confirmed breaks of support in the NASDAQ and Russell 2000. In the NASDAQ it was 2,534 horizontal support which gave way, leaving a void down to the 50-day MA. For the Russell 2000 it was support crudely connecting March-May lows. The Russell 2000's 50-day MA is only a short distance below and should see a test before the week is out. The Dow and S&P had issues of their own - each closing on a bearish inverse hammer. The damage was greater for the S&P as it confirmed the break of the March-May channel. The only index to escape relatively unscathed was the NASDAQ 100 as it continued to trade inside its March-May channel. Volume climbed significantly over Monday's to register another distribution day - bears are really kicking it up at notch.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] fell sharply but also apparent in these charts was the break of an underlying (bearish) head-and-shoulder reversal in the NASDAQ (when closing prices were used only).

There was very little to give bulls comfort. The best bet for bulls would be a swift move to, and bounce at, the 50-day MAs.

Target hit: The March 14th Subscriber pick CTEL reached resistance and its target price for a 42% gain.

Stop hit: CXTI took a serious clipping on earnings. The stock featured as a Breakout for April 11th, April 24th and May 14th. The stock also featured as a Subscriber pick for April 2nd. The Subscriber pick closed for a 53% gain. The three Breakouts closed for a 26% gain, 1% loss and a 10% loss. ICFI crashed through March-May support on earnings and a downgrade. The stock featured as a Breakout for April 13th and a Subscriber pick for March 21st. The Subscriber pick closed for a 29% gain. The April 13th play closed for a 3% gain. VLCM accelerated its declines to knockout its May 8th stop price. The February 26th Subscriber pick closed for a 12% gain and the two Breakout plays on April 4th and May 8th closed for a 9% gain and a 3% loss. NEXT was a Subscriber pick for March 22nd but insipid action brought a stop hit on a test of the 200-day MA. The play closed for a 9% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 14th: Friday's failure by the bulls to regain support proved telling on Monday as bears put a second distribution day in three days for all markets bar the Dow. Of greater concern could be the larger shift to distribution in the S&P. This weakness has yet to be reflected in its on-balance-volume trend, but it has registered itself as three distribution days in the previous five trading days for the index. Large caps have proven the last safe haven for bulls in the face of Russell 2000 indecision and a stumbling NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ. It's looking more and more likely the market is going to enter a more robust decline than was experienced during February's brief dip. Adding insult to injury was the broad scale weakness in the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ], ruining what little attempt was made at a recovery in the $NAA50R on Friday. I am looking forward to an opportunity to buy the market having operated a more cautious stance in my portfolio and with recent stock picks.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: URRE hit its May 8th Breakout stop to close the earlier positions too. The latter play closed for a 5% loss. An earlier Breakout play for April 9th closed with a 1% gain. The March 3rd Subscriber pick closed for a 24% gain.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 11th: In the end, nothing really changed from Thursday. Friday regained much of Thursday's losses, but not enough to regain channel support for breakdowns in the NASDAQ and S&P. Volume was significantly less than Thursday's, reducing the significance of the buying and keeping sentiment on the bearish side. There was no reversal of technical breaks. In addition, Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] either continued their downward descent (Nasdaq Summation Index, $NASI, and Bullish percents, $BPCOMPQ), or failed to regain their 5-day EMAs on their advance ($NAA50R). There were a couple of improvements: the Russell 2000 rallied to regain support connecting March-May lows while the Dow rallied back to resistance where the April rally had followed.

I have stayed bearish for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll which I have been since April 22nd with a "Cash is King" position dating back to October. I would like to see a test of the 200-day MA/40-week MA on oversold Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] before turning bullish on the market. Oversold Nasdaq market internals are key in this regard.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: CMS hit its stop at the lows of the day. The stock featured as a Breakout for December 15th, April 3rd, and April 18th and as a Subscriber pick for November 29th and February 6th. The plays, from oldest to most recent, closed for a 17% gain, 11% gain, 7% gain, flat and a 1% loss. SNCI suffered heavy losses on Friday to hit its May 7th stop. The stock featured as a Breakout for April 9th and May 7th. In addition, it was a Subscriber pick for March 23rd. The latter play closed for a 21% gain. The two Breakout plays for a 4% gain and a 6% loss. REDF was a Subscriber pick for March 29th which after a period of strength weakened back down and through its stop. The play closed for a 4% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 10th: Profit taking swept the markets but the damage was not as wholesale as it first looked. The biggest losers were the Russell 2000, NASDAQ, semiconductor index and S&P. The Russell 2000 suffered because it has failed to build any upside momentum after it reached February resistance to the effect Thursday's selling was just a plain simple kick in the teeth. The NASDAQ broke below support of its rising channel - but did find horizontal support at 2,534 and could stall there for a few days. The semiconductor index gave up Wednesday's good work to lose its breakout and create a bull trap. While the S&P repeated the suffering of the NASDAQ to undercut its rising channel support. Only minor damage was done to the Dow (effectively dropped back inside its former rising channel) and NASDAQ 100 (which simply eased back from resistance of its rising channel, but still has room to run down to support).

Technically, there were MACD trigger sell signals for the NASDAQ 100, NASDAQ, and S&P - to follow an earlier 'sell' signal in the Russell 2000. The last signals to come from the MACDs were 'buy' triggers in March - the day before the "W"-bottom was confirmed by the huge one-day rally which saw breaks of the 50-day MA for many of the aforementioned indices. Other technicals remain positive which means the overall technical picture is bullish over the near term. With the Core PPI/PPI and Retail Sales data due on Friday there is a chance we could see another day like Thursday - although some consolidation of the days losses looks more likely given the proximity of short term support for indices like the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] returned to their bearish ways and their technicals are firmly entrenched on the bearish side of the fence. Attempts on upside crosses for the 5-day EMA of the Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index [$BPCOMPQ] and Nasdaq Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day MA [$NAA50R] were quickly rebuffed - and then some.

Bulls have some developing concerns but it's not game over for them yet.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: GCOM was a Breakout for April 27th and May 8th. The latter closed for a 3% loss, the former for a 1% gain. ZIXI dropped back to its 200-day MA but not before it hit its April 18th stop for a 12% loss. The February 1st and April 4th Subscriber picks closed for a 22% gain and flat. CVO clean cut trendline support (but not the 50-day MA) to close May 3rd play for a 4% loss; the earlier December 28th play closed for a 17% gain and the April 16th Breakout play for a 1% gain. LIPD drifted into its stop after 2 months of listless trading. The March 7th Breakout play closed for an 8% loss. PRFT hit its stop on an intraday swing to the 50-day MA; the May 5th play closed for an 8% loss.

May 9th: Just a quick update. The Fed saw across the board gains for the market but there was no substantial push to new highs for indices other than large caps [Dow and S&P]. The Russell 2000 closed right on resistance, but no more. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 did edge new closing highs, but neither are clear of yearly high resistance. Volume climbed in line with bullish accumulation, so it was a winning day for the bulls and with the exception of the Russell 2000 there is still firm technical support in favor of new highs. However, the days big winner was the semiconductor index which blew away the former bull trap with a fresh breakout on increasing technical strength. If there was disappointment, it came with the limited gains in the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] which failed to test bearish divergences between these internals and the NASDAQ. Volatility also displayed concerns as it made another attempt at former wedge resistance - current support.

Target hit: BPHX slammed into its target price (and then some) to close the April 25th Subscriber pick for a 22% gain. FWLT was another stock to hit its target (only to rally on huge volume the next day). The April 4th play closed for a 19% gain.

Stop hit: There were a few exited positions over the last few days. CCOI was a breakout for April 13th but after closing below its 50-day MA it knocked its stop price for an 8% loss. HGR was a Subscriber pick for January 23rd, February 12th, and March 8th, in addition to been a Breakout play for February 5th and April 2nd. The two breakout plays closed for a 11% gain and a 5% loss. The Subscriber plays closed for a 26% gain, 5% gain and a 1% loss. JAV lost ground on its resistance breakout, running into its stop - but held the 50-day MA as support. The May 7th Breakout play closed for a 9% loss. The earlier March 14th pick finished with a 5% gain. EHTH hit its stop after a couple of months of sideways action. The February 13th Subscriber pick closed for a 3% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 7th: Markets were little changed from Friday although large caps [Dow and S&P] did post another day of gains. There was a significant drop in trading volume for the S&P, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. Supporting technicals did not weaken and do not suggest the March-May rally is done (yet!). Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] were relatively unchanged and did not alter prior signals, or trigger changes in supporting technicals.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: ANEN hit its stop at the very intraday low of the day. The April 30th Subscriber play closed for a 6% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 6th: The Russell 2000 got its break of 830-831 resistance, but only managed to do so with the minimum of force - leaving 835 as another resistance level to break. The semiconductor index had another good day, testing upper resistance of what had looked to be a bull trap, but will likely consign this one to history if it can pull another higher close on Monday. Both the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 finished Friday with bearish candlesticks, the latter at resistance of its rising channel. However, these indices have very strong technicals - to the extent a break of channel resistance would look to be the most likely outcome for both indices (at least in the short term i.e. less than 3 weeks). Volume climbed to register as an accumulation day for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. The S&P closed Friday on a bearish inverse hammer, but the index fell between support and resistance of its rising channel so this is looking a weak bearish candlestick.

The short term picture still looks good for the indices, although I have stuck with my bearish call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll - tough as it is to call a market 4 weeks out. I still hold to a developing top in the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ], but it may take more than 4 weeks to come to fruition. The downward leg, when it comes, should under cut the February/March lows to leave a very strong tradable bottom. For those looking for an end to the cyclical bull market started in 2002, a drop below 2006 lows would be required followed by a rally which failed to take out whatever high the markets manage over the coming days and weeks. I would be surprised to see a drop below 2006 lows on the next correction, so it is unlikely the first half of a confirmed reversal to a cyclical bear market will occur in 2007 - but let the market decide.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: ERJ dropped below trendline support to hit its May 3rd Subscriber stop price. The stock first featured to Subscribers for February 8th. The two plays closed for a 3% loss and a 7% gain respectively.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 3rd: The NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and S&P all managed new closing highs with the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 doing so on higher volume to follow the lead of the Dow. Unfortunately, the Russell 2000 was left outside looking in as it churned around just below 830-83 resistance. Strength in the NASDAQ was enough to drive a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA for the Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent index ($BPCOMPQ), joining the Nasdaq Percent of Stocks Above 50-day MA ($NAA50R) in trading above this trigger line. However, gains in the $BPCOMPQ were offset by weakness in its MACD as it finished 0.035 points away from a key 'sell' trigger. Thursday's gains for the tech averages did little to change the picture from yesterday and only brought these averages (and the S&P) in line with the Dow.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: CLUB was a Breakout feature for March 7th but disappointing earnings trimmed off the good work the stock had put in place in a run to $23.78. The March play closed for a 7% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.May 2nd: I'm still laid low with a cold so this update will be brief. Over the last couple of days bulls have refused to lie down, brushing off every attempt by bears to topple the market. Thursday will be a big test for all indices (bar the Dow - which blew its former highs away) as they approach their most recent highs. If only the Dow represented the Russell 2000 it would be plain sailing for the other indices, but the Russell 2000 is struggling through two key resistance levels; the band of 830-831 and the former rising channel. In addition, its supporting technicals are weak and weakening (most worrying is the continued rude health of the MACD bearish divergence). However, there are other positive indicators for bulls to look too. The NASDAQ and S&P made a picture perfect bounce off its 2-month rising channel support, while the NASDAQ 100 made a return to the comparable channel resistance. The motor for the tech averages, the semiconductor index, also made a positive test of 492 support. The Dow trumped them all by bouncing off former resistance of its rising channel - holding to a sterner test. Volume disappointed, which will be a concern for bulls looking for a break of April highs, but this can come on a break of those highs as buyers wait to see what happens.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] saw mixed action. The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above their 50-day MA ($NAA50R) climbed higher to regain the 5-day EMA and trigger a fresh 'buy' signal in its Ultimate Oscillator and a bullish cross in trend strength [+DI > -DI; ADX < 20 = net trendless], but there were losses for the Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) which was combined with a 'sell' trigger in its MACD; note the last MACD 'buy' signal for this internal came after the NASDAQ had reversed upside in late March. Adding to the bearish tone was weakness in its Ultimate Oscillator and short term stochastics [14,3] - has the NASDAQ already entered a new downtrend? Finally, the Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index ($BPCOMPQ) ticked upwards, but not enough to climb above its 5-day EMA and is only a short move away from a 'sell' trigger in its MACD, to follow an earlier 'sell' trigger in its Ultimate Oscillator and short term stochastics [14,3]. In summary, Nasdaq market internals are in the process of confirming a top as the NASDAQ attempts to climb higher. This is reason enough to remain cautious on the sustainability of this rally.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: CMO hit its stop after retreating from its April 24th Breakout. The stock originally featured as a breakout for March 22nd. The latter play closed for a 4% loss, the former for a 7% gain. MNTA managed a positive test of its 50-day MA, but it was not enough to prevent a stop hit. The April 17th Breakout play closed for a 10% loss. CPX was a Subscriber pick for April 12th and a Breakout for April 30th. The stock retreated to the lows of the gap, negating the stop I had placed at the gaps upper range. The Subscriber pick closed for a 13% gain, the Breakout for a 5% loss. HOLX traded in a huge range on May 1st to knock out its April 3rd stop - but then followed with a fresh Breakout on Wednesday to completely reverse the prior day's weakness. For the purpose of my analysis the February 1st and March 20th Subscriber picks closed for a 3% gain and a 1% gain respectively. The April 3rd breakout play closed for a 7% loss.

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