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Note:
Not all stock links will work as some of the aforementioned stocks
are removed from my public list.
May 28th: Markets
ended the week on a quiet note, holding the gains made from Tuesday's
strong moves [NASDAQ,
NASDAQ
100, S&P].
Volume was understandably light in the run up to Memorial weekend.
Little of note, other than the volatility index, VXN,
is heavily oversold and close to support of 20 - favoring an upside
bounce that should bring some market weakness early next week (likely
Tuesday through to Thursday).
Significant moves were few
and far between, and often on light volume. Two gold plays, CDE
and GSS
weakened by over 6% on merger
deal wranglings, although both metal stocks, like others in
the sectors, have shown weak short term charts. AXYX
resumed its downtrend, hovering just above support as controlled
selling continues to dominate the stocks price. PETS
ran into some buyers indecision, closing with a spinning
top on modest volume. A short term reversal to $7.00 looks favroed
at this point. AMWS
looks poised for a big move soon, a narrow trading day on above
average volume could push this stock either way (and fast). Trend
says down, but keep stops tight no matter which direction it takes;
high of $1.15 and low of $1.08 are the two prices to watch for breaks.
I am updating the list on Monday. If you have any suggestions, post
them here.
May 27th: Markets
continued to tick higher, the third day of gains in a row. The NASDAQ,
and NASDAQ
100 look the weaker of the markets as they approach a declining
resistance line drawn from January (black hashed line). The S&P
had a more solid day, but it still has plenty of upside room in
the tank. Buying volume has been modest, so it will be important
for down days to be lighter in volume than up days. Light trading
can be expected tomorrow as we approach the holiday weekend. It
should be next Wednesday when we see how the market reacts at resistance.
On the public list there were
a few shakers. PETS
lept upwards, counter breaking a bearish pennant. There was no apparent
news to drive the prices up 15.43% other than short covering. Should
be good to test $10.00 before rolling over. I wouldn't be a buyer
at this point. Similarly, YPNT
reversed yesterdays gains, closing up 26.83% on this apparent news.
Short players, www.stocklemon.com still has it in for this stock
on their latest news
, so it will be interesting to see which side wins out. ATRM
made an attempted break on increasing volume. It just failed to
make a new 52-week high, but keep an eye on this for upside follow
through over the coming days. NT
continued to climb off its lows, adding an additional 7.56% to close
at $3.84, a nice gain off the $3.01 doji made 2 weeks ago. Bullish
shifts were noted in the QQQ's
and SPY's,
although both look too extended to be buying in the short term given
resistance lies not far above. The DIA's
look better value here.
Honorable mentions to ADNW,
adding another 3% to place itself above support, and in the early
steps of a new rally. Volume is still a little light, but the follow
through from yesterday's gains is a positive. DSCO
behaved in a similar fashion, and FXEN
is approaching $9.41 resistance on improving technicals. Keep these
on your watch list for increased volume activity.
Penny plays were quiet. ABTG
showed hints of a potential breakout, but volume remained light.
While MOBL
broke long standing support at $0.20 and could tumble down to $0.13s.
Back to top
May 26th: Fear
of terrorist
attack gave a boost to many of listed security, or security
related issues. XYBR
was a stockchart public listed stock to make the grade in this regard,
interestingly, former darling TASR
failed to benefit. Markets [NASDAQ,
NASDAQ
100, S&P]
mostly shrugged off the news and closed slightly higher. Volume
was below yesterdays, common during a consolidation following a
day of strong gains. I would like to see former resistance in each
market tested to confirm the breakouts (blue hashed lines drawn
on the charts for May). I have also added a new resistance line
on each market chart, marked as a black hashed line - any reversal
from this line favors a quick test of May lows and a probable breakdown
to new lows, leaving behind 'bull
traps'. So far, there is nothing to suggest this will happen,
but it is something to keep in mind as market rallies evolve.
A few more stocks on my public
list made breakouts. JDSU
made a neat breakout following 3 weeks of narrow trading. It should
be good to rally to $3.90, it closed at $3.33. LU
broke its downward congestion on average volume, the relief rally
should last a couple more days before it moves to retest May's low
($2.98). PRTL
rose above resistance on light volume- it has suffered over the
last 4 months, but looks well placed to regain some of its value.
Could be bought from a short term perspective to rally to $8, or
as a dollar-cost-average prospect, it ended the day at $6.00. CSCO
made a weak attempt to break, but early gains were erased late in
the session, it finished just a few cents above resistance. ATRM
is building towards a breakout from its bullish flag, this was a
breakout candidate on May
14th. CNXT
continued its recent rich form, tacking on an additional 9% on double
average volume. There is still plenty of upside room here, watch
reaction once it reaches resistance from its downward price channel.
AAC
is mapping a potential double bottom, although its MACD
does not confirm (MACD made a lower low to that in March). PWAV
remains just shy of resistance of $8.50 as it made a new near term
high on below average volume. VXGNE
is mapping a bullish
flag and should be monitored for the next breakout and rally.
AMCC
is in the third day of rally and has an upside target of $6.40.
Use pullbacks to buy, or add to a position. It closed today at $5.56.
DSCO
rallied against form, closing higher after trading for 3 weeks at,
or below support - volume was light. FXEN
continued to move in an upward bias, adding an additional 5.8%,
it is well position to test $9.41 resistance. It closed today at
$8.58.
Penny plays were mostly quiet.
CTKH
benefited from a low volume relief rally, adding almost 22% on average
volume. Technicals ticked up slightly, but remain all in the red.
GZFX
failed to benefit from yesterday's bullish hammer (and attempted
double bottom), more downside can be expected.
Back to top
May 25th: Upside
breakouts on NASDAQ,
NASDAQ
100, S&P
to follow on from yesterdays small uptick in accumulation (as measured
by on balance
volume (OBV). A suppossed drop on oil prices (how Reuters
could consider a drop from $41.83 to $41.19 per barrel "sharp"
is anyone's guess) was the trigger for steady buying throughout
the day, particularly in late afternoon, normally the death knell
for rallies over the last few days. As listed in my 'Breakout'
section, all secondary indicators are in 'Bull phases' and should
soon be followed by bullish turns in the weekly markets. I will
be watching the secondary indicators closely as I am still not 100%
certain we have a firm double bottom - I would like to see bullish
divergences in the MACD
and slow
stochs of the $NASI,
$NAA50
and $BPCOMPQ
secondary indicators in the second bottom (of the double bottom).
Since we don't have this situation, I would not rule out a triple
bottom, or better still, a reversal head-and-shoulder
pattern with right hand shoulders (RHS) at 1,896 [NASDAQ],
1,396 [NASDAQ
100], and 1,087 [S&P].
The latter shoulders will not be created until prices test April
highs. If prices rally beyond April highs on above average trading,
then a double bottom is confirmed and the next step of the bull
rally will be in play.
Stocks on my public list had
a mixed day. Precious
metal stocks continued to over extend. I would keep stops tight
with these as the inevitable correction will happen sooner rather
than later. Trailing stops should be sufficient protection in this
regard. AXYX
lost 8.57% on average volume, but more importantly, prices are trading
close to the hammer lows of the capitulation. A close below$4.81
negates the bullish hammer and re-asserts $4.31 as the downward
price target. AXYX closed at $5.12. CPWR
gained in some late afternoon trading, closing above a near term
resistance level on light volume, watch for potential upside follow
through tomorrow morning. Similar moves were also observed in OSTK,
NWRE,
GLBL,
LRT,
and WEBX
(the latter on a slight increase in volume). AQNT
finally broke its two month consolidation on low volume. Look for
a move to test $11.42. It closed at $10.20, gaining in late afternoon
trading.
Larger caps gained on todays
tech indices moves. CSCO
and INTC
attracted some buying interest, but unlike the tech indices, they
did not break resistance. Opposite to these was QCOM,
closing above the elusive $65 resistance level on increasing volume
(it did likewise over the last couple of days, but volume had been
insipid). It lies just $2.48 away from a new 52-week high. The perennial
under achiever, SUNW,
gained handsomely today, although buyers should trail a stop beneath
its steeply advancing support line. AMCC
was the real winner - bounding an additional 6% beyond yesterday's
leap.
On the downside, PETS
ended its attempted bounce (all of one day), closing down 5.90%
on a bearish
engulfing pattern. YPNT
lost critical technical support at $2.85, ending the day down 11.56%
at $2.60. A downward price target for this is $2.05. Penny stock
MXDY
lost support at $0.17 to end the day at $0.145, down 17.14%, following
yesterdays after hours earnings
release.
Back to top
May 24th: Another
day of quiet trading, following a week of likewise. But the day
did not pass without some noticeable bullish action. On
balance volume (OBV) ticked over its 20-day MA in all 3 markets
[NASDAQ,
NASDAQ
100, S&P],
and daily volume was slighlty above that of Friday's (although volume
was below average in every case). Prices remain below key resistances
on all markets - an important fact to note, so until there are upside
breaks (see blue hashed line congestion zones on my charts, and
May 20th commentary for price levels), be
cautious on buying these breakouts. New leaders are in the process
of testing resistance (and may have already started breaking),
but that is not to say that all tests of resistances will breakout.
Secondary indicators look
to have found some traction. The MACD
of the $NASI
has formed a perfect double bottom, which includes a positive divegence
to the absolute values of the $NASI (see green hashed lines on chart).
The $NAA50
has made a positive SAR trigger, watch for a double bottom off 436,
and the $BPCOMPQ
has bounced off heavily oversold levels (see RSI
on its chart).
Precious
metal stocks continued to defy the odds. Many broke upside resistance
on a number of bearish
wedges. Although these can mean the start of important up trends,
I would be hesitant buying until some attempt has been made in consolidation.
One good example of this was BGO,
prices broke the lower support trendline, but rallied later in the
day to finish on a bullish
hammer (marked a "doji" at time of the update, but
is in fact a hammer). If buying this pattern, place stops at low
of hammer. In BGO's case - stops go on a loss of $2.42.
Other stocks made some nice
impressions, while trading within respectable levels for purchase
(or simply for the watch list). GLBL finished the day at near term
resistance, having traded in a very narrow range of the last 3 weeks.
Volume was above average and recent
earnings have not harmed the stock. PETS
benefitted from a mix of buying and short covering, closing up 10.85%,
but ended the day well below Friday's trading levels. Look for some
morning follow through to $8.00 before prices start drifting back
down. GIGM
benefited somewhat from an oversold rally, but volume does not suggest
it will last very long. PWAV benefited from some
late day action, closing up 3.6% on light volume. I still don't
know why May $7.50 calls were executed when the stock closed Friday
at $7.50, unless someone was looking to fill a big position at a
fixed price??? The QQQs
have shown some reasonable technical strength of late; bullish divergence
in the MACD, and today, a nice upside break in a downward slow stochastic
channel (see last indicator on chart). The SPY's
have shown some decent technical strength too; OBV above the average,
MACD in the process of a crossover, and a bullish divergence from
March holding in Slow STO(chastics). A stock to watch tomorrow is
BIIB
- it continues to trade within a narrow rising (bearish) channel,
but it closed today above resistance on low volume. Is this a bull
trap or the start of a fresh breakout? Raise stops to the lower
channel support line if long. CDIS
made a decent bounce off support on heavy volume having traded below
its rising channel. If support at $27.60 can hold then this is a
relatively low risk long play. CPST
bounced off support on heavier (yet below average volume). It still
looks range bound, so trade between support and resistance until
one or the other gives way. Honorable mention to FXEN
- it has held support at $7.80 for the last couple of weeks and
now looks ready to test $9.30, it needs more buying volume, but
prices closed above $8 at $8.13. STG
staged a nice rally on release of news of a new
contract with Home Depot. This stock sold off heavily in April,
moving from $4.20 highs down to lows of $1.75 in a manner of days.
It closed up 11.47% to end the day at $2.43, breaking near term
resistance. A target of $3.00 looks feasible at this point.
On the flip side, LIFC
followed through on its recent topping action, closing down 8.28%
on heavy trading on release of its recent SEC
filing. The "penny picks" continue to disappoint as quality
stocks continue to take the lime light.
Back to top
May 21st: A
quiet options expiration day, markets closed with modest gains on
light volume [NASDAQ,
NASDAQ
100, S&P].
Until we see a volume move past the 2-week trading range there is
little to do but watch and wait. Secondary indicators have started
to put a bottom in, the $NASI
upticked off its lows from deep oversold
levels. The $VXN
logged its fourth day of declines, while the $NAA50
prepared to cross its 5-day EMA (not updated for Friday at time
of writing).
One of the 'Fallondpicks'
from the list got hit hard (again); PETS
got punished on heavy volume, shedding an additional 16% to close
at $6.73, breaking 6-month support. The next level of support is
down at $3.30 (see weekly
chart)- although a short term 'dead cat bounce' should come before
then. In mid-April PETS reached a high of $12.55 and is a good example
of why stops should be used for all positions, the loss of $10.00
support was the cue for the wise to sell. One stock that looks ready
for its 'dead cat bounce' is AXYX,
it ended the day with a lovely hammer
candlestick on heavy volume - a good sign of capitulation and seller
'wash out'. Should be good for a small rally to $6.35-6.50. However,
long term buyers may want to buy a little now, and the rest later,
as a retest of $4.81 lows should happen before the next strong (long
term) rally can begin. Taking a small position now, at the very
least, gets you in the game should the stock make 'V-recovery' and
therefore not retest $4.81. On a general note, look at the series
of bearish
rising wedges in the precious metal mining stocks, most are
close to apexes and should (if they go to form), breakdown to test
the wedge lows. If you are looking to buy in this sector, the move
to lows will be the time to do so as buying conditions for these
stocks are improving - keep an eye on the MACD and/or slow stochs,
these should not make new lows as prices fall (a bullish sign).
A stock behaving well after recent declines is AKS.
Technicals are improving, its coming off a lengthy decline triggered
by a bull trap, and volume favors further upside. The retest of
$3.69 lows looks complete as of today - certainly one for the watch
list. AMWS
bounce off $1.00 support on heavy volume. Short term bounce is favored
to $1.22, whether it can gain from there (or hold $1.00 support
on a retest) remains to be seen - it ended the day at $1.11. A stock
showing quiet bullish action was AQNT.
One can't argue too much with the financials,
and price action has drifted down nicely on low volume following
its 2.5 million surge in early April. Today may be the first sign
that it may be done consolidating, it closed at resistance of its
bullish
flag. On the flip side, CDIS
looks ready to enter a fresh consolidation - breaking its bearish
flag, and about to lose support in its slow stochastics. A similar
move occurred in VVUS
too.
On the active traded list,
keep an eye on NT;
technicals look strong, and the bullish doji of lows $3.01 will
be strong support. Prices haven't retreated much in the retest and
there is a huge breakdown gap to suck prices up. QCOM
is another stock to keep an eye on. I had favored this a short play,
but todays close over $65 may be significant. If there is volume
follow through on Monday it could rally hard. Investors Business
Daily considers QCOM to be primed for an up move, follow the
momemtum crowd on this if true.
From my personal portfolio
(listed below), stocks had a mixed day. AAC
broke support on low volume - likely to base for another few months,
but not one for the short term players as it stands now. On the
flip side, CNXT
reacted strongly to favorable words from Morgan
Stanley, closing up 11% on heavy volume. Plenty of room for
a rally to $6.00, but will encounter stiff resistance beyond that
price. One of my former "Breakout plays", ATRM,
continues to consolidate on low volume, watch this one next week
for an upside move. The main negative on this stock is the overbought
MACD, and potential bearish divergence - but as in any stock, price
leads technicals. IMAX
may have suffered from option wobbles, as it lost 7.5% on light
volume - turning in the money May $5 calls from profit to nought,
similar manipulation was noted in PWAV. Both
of these should gain next week. Price action in PWAV was positive
for me as my covered calls expired without execution. LEXR
looks to have completed its 4-day pullback on low volume, during
the decline, prices failed to undercut the heavy volume white candlestick
lows from Monday. Watching this eagerly for gains next week. Kodak
news has to be good news for LEXR's bottom
line. One stock I will be losing in VXGNE,
the attempted manipulated move to $12.50 failed, and todays strong
end-of-day action should see some decent upside over the coming
weeks - my $12.50 covered calls been executed.
Back to top
May 20th: Today's
market action may have been considered a non-event by many - but
it performed better than expected by not following through on yesterday's
late afternoon selling. Volume came in lighter, a bullish sign,
although markets remain susceptible to a crash/capitulation situation,
so keep powder kegs dry until current price congestions break one
way or the other; for the NASDAQ
this is a move above 1,938: below 1,865; for the NASDAQ
100 this is a move above 1,428: below 1,372; and for the S&P
this is a move above 1,106: below 1,076. Volume on such moves should
be well above average. MACD
and slow
stochs technicals continue to map bullish divergences in all
markets, favoring upside sooner rather than later, and given the
declines in secondary indicators [$BPCOMPQ,
$NASI,
and $NAA50],
we should be looking at a nice long rally. But, the important thing
bulls must remember is crashes occur from oversold (not overbought)
levels, and thats right where we are now.
As goes with a light trading
market, stocks on the public list had a quiet day. Some of the stocks
I had mentioned as worth watching reversed yesterday's slim gains,
these included ADNW,
PWAV,
and NWRE.
Other stocks look better short candidates, some of these include
OSTK
(the weakest of the stocks listed and the one best primed to short),
IPVO
(wait for bounce to complete at resistance), ABAX
(breakdown from bearish flag but support at $14.93 makes this a
short term play) AXYX
(lost another level of support today - in a confirmed downtrend),
and PETS
(perhaps too extended - MACD is horrible which makes me think there
is worse to come, but bounce, when it comes, will be thick and fast
- once it gets close to resistance, short it).
Back to top
May 19th: The
markets opened strongly, feeding off yesterdays positive after hours
reports
from HPQ and AMAT - but heavy volume afternoon selling, see index
tracker stocks; QQQ
(NASDAQ 100), SPY
(S&P500), and DIA
(DOW JONES) for volume, drove prices back to yesterdays closing
levels. The net effect of this selling were large bearish inverse
hammers
in the NASDAQ,
NASDAQ
100, and S&P.
Today ranked as a distribution day in all markets - although with
markets trading within a relatively tight range over the last couple
of weeks, bulls could be optimistic in the failure of the bears
to take prices significantly lower. In this regard, tomorrow will
be a real test - the expectation is for another hard day of selling,
but if it fails to materialise the bulls may feel the time has truely
come to re-enter the market. The price of oil story
is getting a little old as an excuse for the weak market, particularly
as commodities such as gold,
silver,
and more importantly, copper,
continue to sell off - if inflation was the primary concern, the
drop in raw material prices should help alleviate this. In addition,
oil services,
and oil index
charts are looking toppish and have weakened before oil
prices - indeed, the oil prices broke resistance without a consolidation
(no handle) and looks to be entering a blowout phase. Once this
completes a rally in stocks can begin.
Precious metals look to have
bottomed, but whether prices can bounce back, or simply go sideways,
remains to be seen. Gold
sneaked over its sharp, downard channel resistance, although mining
stocks remain toppish in the near term, and favor a test of
early May lows. Watch for divergence in this sector, ie. MACD
and/or slow
stochs rising as prices fall, positive divergence should favor
further upside in the long run. SIL
was the only precious metal stock on my list to buck the trend,
closing up almost 4% at $17.10. Few stocks on the list performed
well, some had an inkling of success, but mostly as watch material
- nothing to leap on, these stocks included; GZFX,
EAG,
IIP,
MAMA,
NWRE,
ADNW,
SIRI,
and PWAV.
Back to top
May 18th: Markets
rallied weakly - gapping up at the open, but failing to follow through
in volume, nor trend. The NASDAQ
and NASDAQ
100 ended the day on spinning
tops - a neutral candlestick, implying equal strength in bulls
and bears. The S&P
fared slightly better, countering its negative day yesterday with
a bullish
piercing pattern. It will be interesting to see if positive
after hour earnings from HPQ and AMAT follow through in tomorrows
markets. There is room for a further 1-2 days of rally before encountering
resistance. Resistance in the NASDAQ lurks around 1,935, and 1,425
in the NASDAQ 100. In the S&P it lies a few points over 1,100.
However, if volume fails to pick up over the next next couple of
days the market will resume its malaise and drift back down (in
low volume markets prices tend to drift down rather than up). Other
than the $VXN,
secondary indicators gave little cause for optimism - continuing
their declines. The $NASI
was the weakest of the set, falling another 4% today.
Stocks on the list had a quiet
day. BIPH
took a 16% hit during its confrence call today, reversing yesterday's
breakout on heavier volume, leaving the bearish descending
triangle back in play. AMXC
gained 17% on average volume, but is still within a consolidation
range, the pivot price for this stock is around $11.55, it ended
today at $10.25. LIFC's
run looks close to an end, a bearish hanging
man following yesterdays bearish inside day. NT
finished strongly after weeks of sharp declines, looks good to test
$4.20 from here. NT Sep $3 calls closed todays trading at $0.85
from the ask, aggressive players may opt for Jun calls at $0.55,
the stock finished the day at $3.27. AKS
rallied well of yesterday's bullish hammer, leaving a morning
star candlestick combination. IPVO
broke another level of support and is close to a state of freefall
- weekly chart
shows support at $0.40, but the next level is down at $0.12.
Back to top
May 17th: International
news ruled the markets. Asian markets dropped sharply as the Indian
election
results continued to hold sway in the region - the Bombay index
finishing the day down 11% following Friday's 6% decline. This took
an obvious toll on Indian ADR's - although, it should be noted -
crashes are great times to buy, so keep an eye on some of these
stocks
for value over the coming days. Compounding market weakness was
the assassination
of a key Iragi council official. American markets gapped down as
expected, but surprisingly, volume remained tame. The NASDAQ
finished the day on a doji, as buyers and sellers traded blows throughout
the day. Long lower shadows
in NASDAQ
and NASDAQ
100 candlesticks over the last 7 days of trading gives some
hope to the bulls. However, the S&P
spurned this behavior, closing decisively down near the lows of
its shadows. Given this I expect a new low in the S&P 500 which
will likely have a knock on effect on the tech indices, bringing
fresh lows here also. On the positive front, selling volume is meagre,
and if it remains so over the coming days we should soon see a very
strong (but short lived) rally that will set up a new double bottom
play.
The $VXN
flashed a gravestone
doji, a bearish indicator, which given its rapid ascent should
bring some (upside) relief to the market. The MACD, ADX and slow
stochs of the volatility index are all strong, so any relief will
be short lived - but watch for divergences in these technical parameters
that should coincide with a strong bottom in the NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100.
I have updated my double
bottom analysis to account for the events while I was away.
Keep an eye on the secondary indicators for possible leads to a
bottom - nothing yet to make me think we have reached this.
I have added LEXR,
ATRM
and IMAX
to my portfolio list, and removed PCS from the most active list
- replacing it with INTC.
There is a dearth of quality on the list - but two stocks did perform
against the odds today, BIPH
on some late day trading on no apparent news, and penny play ABTG
on news of a
new technology agreement.
Breakout plays: IDSY,
a security play whose recent vehicle securtiy system received FAA
and TSA approval,
gained 8.47% to new highs.
Back to top
May 14th : In
the process of updating web page and stockchart list, likely to
take a couple of days given the downturn in the markets since the
last update. I had been looking for a double bottom in the markets,
which at least partially came through - but given the extent of
the declines in the secondary indicators [$BPCOMPQ,
$NASI,
and $NAA50]
I am more inclined to look for a fresh double bottom, starting at
the point of a new low, possibly around 1,822 for the NASDAQ
(calculated as a measured move - the difference of 2,153 and 1,896
subtracted from 2,079). Secondary indicators do favor further downside,
suggesting 1,896 will *not* be support as made in my initial double
bottom prediction [update to follow in this later].
Commodiites were the real
victims of the last few weeks, but precious
metal stocks are looking attractive long plays at current valuations.
A couple of interesting breakout
candidates for Monday; ATRM
and EZEN. Past
performance from my last set of stocks in this scan from Apr 19th
have done well (even if they have suffered since). No candidates
from stocks priced $10-30.
More to come next week when I should be 100%.
Stockchart
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