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User id: member email. Password: gold

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 31st: Bulls stopped the rot with some low volume buying. 20-day MAs held but the 50-day MAs still proved to be a step too far for all but the NASDAQ 100. There was modest technical weakness for some of the indices with a bearish cross in bull/bear trend strength [-DI > +DI] for the NASDAQ and S&P combined with a drop below the stochastic mid-line too. The Dow also saw a bearish cross in bull/bear trend strength, but the mid-line stochastic held as support. All key technical indicators for the Russell 2000 were bullish - in line with its market leadership role. Technicals for the NASDAQ 100 were unchanged as net bullish.

For today to mean anything for the bulls there will need to be some substantial follow through. Monday was okay, but not spectacular.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: ZOLL exited on its second stop to close with a 9% gain for the March 10th Subscriber pick, but the March 24th Free play closed for a 6% loss. TRE didn't make it out of the gates, registering as a 5% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 29th: A third day of weakness removed another layer of support from the indices as the 50-day MAs gave way for the Russell 2000 and Dow, with 20-day MAs under pressure for the NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P. The semiconductors had the worst of it as its 20-day MA was breached, but not enough to erase Monday's gains. Monday's triggered resistance breakouts for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 held, but the failure of the semiconductor index to hold a similar resistance breakout could spell trouble for these key tech averages.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] were a little more mixed. A MACD trigger 'buy' for the Summation Index ($NASI) was countered by a failed breakout for the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R). Interestingly, the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) stumbled at 30 resistance. All Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are at oversold levels, although not as oversold as they were in January which should reflect increasing bullishness from individual component stocks. I am sticking with a bullish call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: MXWL failed to last a day as its 200-day MA break turned into a 20% rout. The play closed for a 14% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 27th: Tech markets came under pressure with some higher volume selling. The NASDAQ gave up its 50-day MA, while the NASDAQ 100 finished just below it. Small caps [Russell 2000] retained their primary role as market leader {Small caps > Tech > Large caps}, but it too fell back on to its 50-day MA, but has so far held the bulk of Monday's gains. However, the weaker large cap indices [Dow and S&P] gave up all of Monday's gains. The S&P lost its 50-day MA as support too, although the Dow clung on.

On-balance-volume turned in favor of distribution for the S&P, NASDAQ 100, Dow and NASDAQ. Although on-balance-volume for all of these indices has been range bound since December, so these crosses could just as easily be whipsaw signals. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are still bullish, with the Summation Index ($NASI) just shy of a MACD trigger 'buy'.

It looks like bears have about done enough to keep indices inside their consolidations, which for indices like the Dow, Russell 2000, and S&P could mean a move back to triangle support. Sigh.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: NTRS eased into its stop to close the March 26th Subscriber pick for a 4% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 26th: Markets eased with a second day of low volume declines. Market technicals remained firm and 50-day MAs held as support across the indices, with the semiconductors the only index to dip below its 50-day MA. The Russell 2000 finished the day pegged to declining resistance from Jan-Feb. The S&P pulled down and away from its Jan-Feb resistance. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] maintained their bullish form.

All of this was reasonably good considering the weaker than expected economic data. How will Oracle's disappointment affect Thursday's action? Much will depend on whether the 50-day MAs can hold. Bulls can’t let Monday’s gains get away so Thursday’s close needs to be near the day’s highs.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 25th: A respectable finish after Monday's rally. MACD, on-balance-volume, trend strength and stochastics all turned net bullish for the S&P, Russell 2000, NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100 following the lead of the Dow from Monday. Light volume was typical for a consolidation, so bulls will want this to continue over the coming days. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] gained with a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA for the Summation Index ($NASI). This puts all supporting breadth indicators in bullish alignment with the NASDAQ. The percentage of stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) pushed a new 5-month closing high with 44.6% of NASDAQ stocks trading above their 50-day MA. This is of considerable improvement to the 15% of mid-January where the index traded only 50 points lower. Bullish percents are had 17% of stocks on point-n-figure buys at January lows compared to 29% currently. Look for breadth indicators to further improve as the indices work themselves out of 3-month consolidations. Bullish positions looking more stable at this point.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 24th: Today was interesting as there was no shortage of action, just a shortage of volume. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 were key in this regard. Both of these indices stamped their authority over large cap indices {Tech > Large caps}, a bullish development. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 made important breaks of declining resistance from Jan-Feb highs, helped by their push above 50-day MAs. The semiconductor was interesting as it cleared declining resistance from December, but fell 0.20 short of a break of its 50-day MA. Large caps did not rest on their laurels. The Dow saw all supporting technicals turn green as the 50-day MA was breached. Declining resistance from Jan-Feb highs remained intact, but Monday's gains fell just short of a breakout. The S&P did not have the same technical turn as the Dow, but its 50-day MA was breached. The Russell 2000 was similar with a break of the 50-day MA, but no move out of its consolidation triangle - although it ranked ahead of large caps {Small caps > Tech > Large caps - bullish}.

Today's action was significant in the relative underperformance of large caps. This suggested rotation into tech stocks, and to a lesser degree small caps, from the more cautious blue chips. If the volume was stronger it would have registered as a very bullish day, as it stands it was a step in the right direction. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] hadn't updated by time of writing, but it is assumed these all gained.

Target hit: CHT was a Subscriber pick for January 14th. It surpassed its price target for a 45% gain.

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 22nd: Higher volume trading into the run-up of the Easter weekend had more to do with options expiration than accumulation, but it was good to see the day finish higher. Not all of Wednesday's losses were reversed, but there were enough bullish developments with a Dow challenging its 50-day MA and MACD trigger 'buys' for the Russell 2000 and S&P to suggest bulls have the short term momentum. MACD trigger line bullish divergences now exist across all indices covering the last couple of months. The on-balance-volume trend for the indices can best be described as neutral, which given the prior declines in the indices is no bad thing. Although the Dow nicked a close above it 50-day MA, other indices were able to finish on, or just short of their 20-day MAs.

Large caps retain their leadership quality over small caps and tech, which is bearish {Large caps > Small caps > Tech}. So the more intermediate to long-term picture hasn't reflected some of the more short term bullish changes. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] also work bullish divergences with respect to the parent NASDAQ, showing greater strength (and a more bullish environment) than action in the NASDAQ would otherwise suggest. Because of increased bullish breadth I maintain a 'Bullish' call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: VLNC was a Subscriber pick for February 20th. The stock reached its target for a 54% gain.

Stop hit: CPD was a Breakout for March 4th. A gap lower open was enough to hit the stop price to close the play for an 8% loss. CGLD was a penny pick which hit its stop on gold weakness to close with a 10% loss. CLR also suffered on commodity weakness. The February 28th Subscriber pick closed for an 8% loss. EGO was another gold stop out. The March 7th Subscriber pick closed for a 12% loss. SGR lost support of its 200-day MA to exit at the February 11th stop for a 7% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 18th: The Fed made a smaller than expected rate cut of 0.75% and the markets reacted with mixed response. Yes, the point gains were huge - but the limp volume took the gloss of the day. Also lingering were various resistance levels. The NASDAQ closed on the 20-day MA but was able to nick a fresh MACD trigger 'buy'. The NASDAQ 100 was able to break above its 20-day MA, but was confined by declining resistance from January. The Dow sliced through its 20-day MA and did enough to make a break of its 50-day MA. The gains were accompanied with a MACD trigger 'buy' and a bullish cross of the 20-day MA for on-balance-volume. The Russell 2000 also finished the day at its 20-day MA but still has room to reach the 50-day MA and resistance. The semiconductor index was another 20-day MA closer, with the 50-day MA and declining resistance from December nearby - a test of these levels could occur tomorrow. The semiconductor index also nicked a MACD trigger 'buy'.

In terms of relative strength there was a shift back to Large caps [Dow and S&P]. This put the market alignment in bear market territory {Large caps > Tech > Small caps}. There was some modest improvement for Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] with a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA for the Nasdaq Percent of Stocks above 50-day MA ($NAA50R).

Unfortunately, the overall flavor of the day was bearish even with the 3-4% gains in the indices. However, it shouldn’t distract from the importance of a likely double bottom. Buy on weakness over the coming days.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: From the previous day: GLG, CPLA, DBB, EWC, XTLB, and PEG.

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 15th: Friday's losses did away with all of Thursday's gains, trumping on volume too. Bullish engulfing patterns were Thursday's flavor du jour, but Friday it was all about bearish engulfing patterns. The NASDAQ reversed from the test of the 20-day MA made at the open, to close just below 2,216 support. Its MACD trigger 'buy' holding - just. The Dow finished just above 11,941 support, recovering enough during the day to make support stick. Technicals remain in bearish territory. The NASDAQ 100 fell just short of a bearish engulfing pattern and short the volume needed to register it as a distribution day - perhaps the only bright spot on the day. Although it did lose support of 1,721. The semiconductor index had the lowest close in four years making it the hardest hit by Friday's selling. The S&P suffered higher volume bearish engulfing pattern and pulled sharply away from January open/closing lows of 1,308.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] were left with a bearish cross of the 5-day EMA by the Nasdaq Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R). The Summation Index ($NASI) and Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) weakened, but not substantially so. The latter losing 0.04%, a sign that stocks held their ground in the face of Friday's selling. As before, oversold breadth indicators suggest a buyer's market and I have maintained a 'Bullish' call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: BRCD clipped its stop to close the February 19th Subscriber pick for a 9% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 13th: Thursday's action was considerably better than Tuesday's given the weak start to the day. It is perhaps a few days too early for it to count as a follow through day, but volume was as high as Tuesday's registering it an accumulation day for many of the indices. Unfortunately, the 20-day MAs remain a challenge, but the gains weren't all for nothing. The NASDAQ held 2,216 support (strengthening the bear trap theory) on a MACD trigger 'buy', and more importantly, regained leadership over large caps {Tech > Large caps}. The Dow finished on a bullish hammer as it lost relative strength to the NASDAQ 100 (similar to the NASDAQ). The NASDAQ 100 came close to breaking its 20-day MA, but finished on a bullish engulfing pattern. It too has a MACD trigger 'buy' to help bulls, along with a bullish divergence between the MACD trigger line and price. The semiconductor index edged over its 20-day MA before it finished the day just below. As with other tech indices it generated a MACD trigger 'buy'. The Russell 2000 finished on bullish engulfing pattern, but there was little technical change for the index. The S&P posted a day similar to the Dow but there was also a loss of relative strength to the Russell 2000. This puts the indices in a more bullish alignment with Tech leading Small caps leading Large caps {Tech > Small caps > Large caps}.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] were little changed, but bullish divergences between the core breadth indicator, their technicals and the parent NASDAQ remain intact.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: ARAY after a promising start eased into its stop price to close the February 4th Subscriber pick for a 10% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 12th: Yesterday's huge gains were always going to struggle to hold so Wednesday's drop was not unexpected. Large gains like Tuesday's typically give back all of their upside as new bulls remain cautious and bears sneak new short positions. Wednesday was good in that selling volume was very light, but from a technical perspective the last couple of days saw little change and only a weak challenge of 20-day MAs from the indices. For the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, Dow and S&P there were potential bear traps but for these to hold January open/closing (not intraday) lows will have to stick as support.

On the watch list once again are the 20-day MAs. The semiconductor index came closest to a break, which will help the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 move forward if semiconductors can do so. The Russell 2000 has the furthest distance to challenge its 20-day MA. On the flip side, if the indices continue to slump then the measured move targets become favored; for many this will mean another 10% off where they closed Wednesday. Not an attractive proposition.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] added some bullishness with a cross of the 5-day EMA for the Nasdaq Percent of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R). The Bullish percents ($BPCOMPQ) flattened, but needs another few days before its 5-day EMAs is breached. The Summation Index ($NASI) barely paused during the decline.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 10th: The effects of a bear market were clearly evident as small caps (Russell 2000) collapsed, tearing past January lows. There was a low volume follow through to Friday's break of support for the NASDAQ, and the NASDAQ 100 violated its January low, taking its lead from the NASDAQ. The semiconductor index buckled to edge a new closing low, but intraday lows from January and February held. January's intraday lows for the Dow and S&P also clung on - if a little precariously. But the pattern of weakness from small caps to tech to large caps suggests whatever small caps do will eventually spread to the other indices.

There was no change on the technical front as all supporting indicators for the key indices are bearish. In addition, supporting technicals for the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are also all bearish. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] all weakened, bringing all three back towards deep oversold territory.

Given the proximity of Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] to bear market oversold conditions there isn't much room for further downside. This should be enough to see the next rally start very soon. But how confident can buyers be? Unfortunately, the relatively lackluster readings in volatility (VXN or VIX) suggest the selling isn't over yet.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: TICC suffered a significant loss to close, and lose, the initial breakout gap. The February 8th Subscriber pick closed for a 10% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 7th: Friday was a roller coaster day with a down-up-down-up sequence of events. Higher volume registered a distribution day for all the key indices. There were breaks of support defined by open/closing price for the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ. The latter index following the lead of the NASDAQ 100 which gave up such support Thursday. The Russell 2000 was unusual in that open/close support did not break. Technicals saw a bearish cross of on-balance-volume for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. The NASDAQ 100 also saw a MACD trigger 'sell'. The semiconductor index bucked the trend and was able to close slightly higher after a strong assault on Thursday's losses. Indices have January intraday lows as the next support challenge. January remains an important bottom, but a brief dip below these lows remains a possibility. Bears will look to the lack of fear as measured by volatility as a sign of complacency and a strong possibility for further losses.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] fell closer to oversold levels. The Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) turned back from resistance around 30 - which had been decent support. Although the $BPCOMPQ is in decline, the 7-week bullish divergence it created with respect to the NASDAQ holds. A similar divergence remains for the Nasdaq Percent of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R), although bullish divergences for the MACD and Ultimate Oscillator of this indicator are no more. Finally, the Summation Index ($NASI) has a bullish divergence of its own, but technicals all turned red on a return to bearish trend strength and a drop out of overbought levels for stochastics.

For the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook) I have gone with a bullish call; but it's a toss up between that and a neutral call as a sideways pattern evolves.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: DROOY dropped through it's blog related stop to close the January 25th Subscriber pick for a 1% gain.

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 6th: Two days worth of gains gave way on one day of selling. There were some bright spots, but they were few and far between. The NASDAQ closed at 2,216 support on lighter volume selling. The NASDAQ 100 was less fortunate as it lost support (based on the open/close price), and now has intraday low support of 1,693 next on its visitor list. Volume also eased to the downside for this index. Large caps [Dow and S&P] posted losses which leave them in a very vulnerable state given the distance to travel to January lows. Small caps (Russell 2000) were left worse off as they shed just over 3%. The Russell 2000 has some 12 points to run before it forms a new low for 2008. Should this happen I would expect similar breaks for tech [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] and large caps [Dow and S&P], given small caps typically lead markets both up and down.

Technically, there were fresh MACD trigger 'sell' signals for the NASDAQ and semiconductor index. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] further deteriorated to the extent of a new MACD trigger 'sell' for the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) and Summation Index ($NASI) suggesting further declines in the NASDAQ are likely.

Thursday was indeed ugly.

Target hit: None

Stop hit:. UMBF clipped its stop at the intraday lows. The January 24th Breakout play closed for a 9% loss. ERS crashed through its stop. The February 27th play closed for a 13% loss. FSS was a Subscriber pick for a February 28th. After a series of low volume losses the stop was hit for a 6% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 5th: Today was the opposite of yesterday; decent start but a poor finish. On a point basis there was little real change with neither 20-day MAs resistance, nor support at January lows challenged for any of the indices. Although, the semiconductor index came closest with a touch (but no break) of its 20-day MA. However, there was larger technical weakness for the Dow with all indicators in the red, following a similar bearish turn in the S&P Tuesday.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] expanded on their growing bearishness. There were fresh MACD trigger 'sell' signals for the Nasdaq Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) and Nasdaq Percent of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R). The MACD 'sell' for the $NAA50R was enough to register all supporting technicals for this breadth indicator as bearish. Adding to the woes was Tuesday's bearish cross of the 5-day EMA for the Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI). As it stands, the short term picture for the NASDAQ is full on bearish which could translate into new lows for 2008.

Thursday could be ugly.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: INT was a Subscriber pick for March 3rd, but backfilled its gap and hit its stop for a 11% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 4th: By 2 pm it was looking very bleak for bulls, but buyers stepped up and bid the market back to a respectable close. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, with large caps [Dow and S&P] only a few points shy of registering similar. As before, bulls are looking to the 20-day MAs as an initial stepping stone for a new rally. But really, the day eroded all the work done since the January lows and its back to square one. January lows are a major bottom - even if markets were to make a new low, this low would be minor and likely not last very long in the grander scheme of things, but that doesn't mean it can't happen.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: TRW fell into the clutches of its stop after backfilling its breakout gap. The February 22nd free pick play closed for an 8% loss. CHNR failed to build on its initial resistance break. The March 1st Subscriber play closed for a 13% loss. NOVL also dropped into its stop price after a downgrade crushed the stock by 10%. The March 1st Subscriber pick closed for a 6% loss. PCLN closed on a bullish engulfing pattern, but during the formation of that pattern the February 19th stop was hit for an 11% loss. STSI crashed into its stop after falling just $0.11 shy of its target price. The January 15th Subscriber play closed for a 12% gain and the later January 25th pick for a 13% loss. PZZA hit its stop on the fourth day of declines. The February 28th Subscriber pick closed for a 6% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 3rd: More selling swept the markets, but bulls were at least able to mount some form of attack into the close of business. Large caps [Dow and S&P] have most to lose from their current vantage as there is considerable downside to January lows. The semiconductor index will likely be the first to make such a test, with the tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] not far behind. The NASDAQ 100 did make a closing test of January lows (1,721) and is very vulnerable to any further decline - more so than its NASDAQ brother. The Russell 2000 suffered a bearish technical turn with all indicators falling into the red. The index itself is okay, with some 34 points between Monday's close and January lows (aka support).

Stockcharts.com hadn't updated their Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] at time of writing, but I suspect there was little change on the bearish 5-day EMA crossovers in the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ), and Percentage of Stocks trading above their 50-day MAs ($NAA50R), with the Summation Index ($NASI) the only breadth indicator to stay positive. However, none of the short term weakness overturns the longer 3-month bullish divergences in each of these internals.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: EPAY exited on illiquid intraday volatility. The February 14th Subscriber pick closed for a 9% loss. SFG dipped back to its 50-day MA, but not before hitting its February 13th Subscriber stop price. The play registered as a 3% loss. YTEC drifted into its stop after 3 weeks of lackluster trading. The February 6th Subscriber pick closed for a 13% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldMarch 1st: It has been a while since bears made an appearance, but there was no denying who grabbed the bull by the horns Friday. The 50-day MAs proved to be a step too far for the indices, so much so that the 20-day MAs were knocked out on the resulting declines. Friday's gaps will be interesting - if they mark a true breakdown they shouldn't get filled and a loss of January lows will come quick and fast. Should these gaps fill, then there is a good chance bulls will take control and bring the indices to, and above their 50-day MAs.

I have redrawn support and resistance to account for Friday's action. January lows are once again important for the indices. Large [Dow and S&P] and small [Russell 2000] caps posted clear support breakdowns, to the extent small caps fell to the bottom of the pile with respect to relative strength [Large caps > Tech indices > Small caps] - the most bearish alignment for markets.

Technicals were little changed with the exception of the S&P which showed bearish crosses for on-balance-volume and stochastics. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] also weakened with bearish crosses of the 5-day EMAs for the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ), and Percentage of Stocks trading above their 50-day MAs ($NAA50R). For the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook) I keep with a bullish call.

Target hit: None

Stop hit:. MCF drifted into its stop. The October 4th Subscriber pick closed for a 54% gain. And the free pick for February 12th closed for a 3% gain. SIM wasted no time in cracking below support and its 200-day MA. The February 20th Subscriber pick closed for a 7% loss. WHR offered its own woes. The February 6th Subscriber pick closed for a 6% loss.

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