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Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 31st: Friday saw some intraday swing but markets closed pinned to Thursday's finish. The 20-day MA's continued to offer support to the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Dow and an intraday test for the S&P. While the 50-day MA remained support for the Russell 2000. The tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] saw another shift in the $NAA50 as it crossed above its 5-day EMA (a bullish signal) creating a picture perfect back test of its "W"-bottom. Will the parent NASDAQ be able to do the same?

Bulls maintain the short term edge and given the back test of "W"-bottom support, combined with the presence of the 20-day MAs, there is a relatively low risk long entry here. Should the 20-day MAs get sliced open and markets fall back into the clutches of price congestion within the "W"-bottoms, then I would look for new measured moves down to (and through) the 200-day MAs.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: BRCD hit its fourth day of losses to knock into its March 6th Subscriber pick stop price. The stock first featured as a Breakout pick for October 3rd, and as a Subscriber pick for February 15th and March 6th. The earliest pick closed for a 22% gain. The two Subscriber picks closed for a 10% gain and flat. SMTC was a Subscriber pick for March 29th. The stock hit its stop at the very low of the day. The stock closed for a 3% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 29th: The semiconductor index took a bit of a knocking, but was able to find support at the (mild) rising channel. This hit spread to the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 as intraday weakness saw breaks of "W"-bottom support, but afternoon buying brought both indices back above these support levels. The Dow regained its "W"-bottom support after losing it on Wednesday. However, volume disappointed - just as it did in the S&P. The Russell 2000 was the only index to still hold its 50-day MA. The NASDAQ 100 and S&P almost made it over the 50-day MA, but closed the day short of this average.

The tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] all declined without triggering additional bearish signals. Look for this weakness to continue as the parent NASDAQ trades around "W"-bottom support. Short term (< 3 weeks) I am bullish. Longer term (> 3 weeks), "Cash is King".

Target hit: None

Stop hit: CDI was a Breakout play for March 16th and a Subscriber pick for March 6th. The former play closed for a 4% loss, the latter for a 2% gain. VTR featured as a Subscriber pick for January 17th but drifted off February highs and through its 50-day MA for a 3% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 28th: Bears took hold of the days trading to bring markets back to pre-Fed lows on higher volume, the first distribution day since the rally broke on Bernake's comments. Additional signs of cracks in the rally appeared in the Dow as the index closed below support of its "W"-bottom but was able to stall at the 20-day MA. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 finished a shade above its "W"-bottom support as bearish trend strength moved ahead of bullish trend strength [-DI > +DI; ADX > 20 but falling, indicating weakening trend] and on-balance-volume dipped below its 20-day MA trigger line, signaling bearish distribution. The Russell 2000 was the strongest index given it finished the day at its 50-day MA, the only index to hold this support level. The S&P evaded the break in the Dow, but closed well below its 50-day MA.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] increased their bearish tones as the $NAA50 cut below its 5-day EMA and finished on support of its "W"-bottom.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: DSX hit its stop after its fourth day of declines, but the 50-day MA was not violated by the decline (which was previous support in past declines). The stock was a Subscriber pick for February 12th and March 23rd; the former play closed for a 6% gain, the latter for an 8% loss. TPX dropped below its most recent stop price. The stock was a Subscriber pick for October 23rd, January 12th, February 5th, and March 22nd; the four plays closed for a 39% gain, 20% gain, 6% gain, and a 4% loss respectively.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 27th: Markets eased on slightly higher volume. Whereas Monday bulls were able to bring markets back to Friday's levels, Tuesday saw the bulls take a break and let the markets drift lower. Tuesday's lows were not violated and remain short term support. The 50-day MA could remain support for the S&P, Russell 2000, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, although the 50-day MA has acted as resistance in the Dow.

The only significant change over the last few days was the MACD trigger 'buy' in the $NASI. Volatility continues with a back test of the bullish wedge.

Target hit: RNO hit its target price on Monday. The February 26th Subscriber pick closed for a 19% gain.

Stop hit: HINT dropped into its stop price on light volume. The March 26th Subscriber pick closed for a 5% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 22nd: Markets held their status quo, with the exception of the semiconductor index which gave up the bulk of its gains. The heavier losses in the semiconductor index could spell bad news for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 given neither budged much on the day. The only significant change in these indices came in the net bullish turn of supporting technicals, following the S&P from yesterday.

Supporting tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] all pushed gains, but the concern for bulls is the positive backtest of former wedge support in volatility. An upside move in volatility is usually associated with a dose of fear in the markets and volatility is now positioned for another run in fear.

Regular readers will note by continued "Cash is King" stance dating back to October 2006. I haven't changed this position in light of recent bullish action, even though the next few weeks could see this rally push higher.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: none

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 21st: Big upside follow through to Tuesday's "W"-bottoms with confirmation from the NASDAQ and Dow on their "W" bottoms. Volume climbed to register a second accumulation day in a row for many of the indices. The 20-day and 50-day MAs were easily cleared, with the exception of the Dow, which closed on the 50-day MA. Breakdown gaps in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and Russell 2000 look set to be tested at minimum. Short term traders would probably look to take profits at this point. Technicals saw some significant improvement with bullish trend strength superseding bearish trend strength for the semiconductor index, S&P, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 [+DI > -DI]. Indeed, the technicals of the S&P are all back in the green, following similar shifts for the Russell 2000 and semiconductor index.

Also improving were tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ]; bullish crosses of the 5-day EMA were observed in the $BPCOMPQ and $NASI, to follow that of the $NAA50. Supporting technicals for these indicators remain weak, although there was a bullish MACD 'buy' trigger in the $NAA50. Based on these internals, what is the upside potential for the markets? The $BPCOMPQ could support a 4 month+ rally, much as it did in November 2006 when it inched along higher. The $NAA50, if it was to rally like it did in January, could bring up an 8-week rally. While the $NASI suggests 2-3 months of upside as possible.

This is an important rally for the market. February's drop put in place a new reaction low, if individual markets fail to take out February's highs it will kick off a new cyclical bear market for the indices. The trouble for bulls is all the supply to chew threw on their way to these highs. The trouble for bears is the big squeeze as they are forced out of their positions.

Target hit: TSO reached its target. The stock featured as a Subscriber pick for January 30th and February 14th; the stock closed for a 27% gain and a 16% gain respectively.

Stop hit: none

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 20th: Markets delivered on their bullish promise with confirmed "W"-bottoms in the NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000 and S&P, with a possible "W"-bottom in the NASDAQ, but not the Dow. Volume climbed to register a technical accumulation day in the key averages bar the Dow, but volume was well off the selling volume of recent weeks. How significant are these bottoms? The 20-day and 50-day MAs are nearby for the Russell 2000, S&P, Dow, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 so there are still potential spanners in the works for shorts to jump on. Technically, there were MACD trigger 'buys', below the bullish zero line, for the Russell 2000, S&P, Dow, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 - it was unusual to see these cross all at the same time. Wednesday's close will give a better indication of a confirmation once the Fed concludes its meeting.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] all rose, but only the $NAA50 closed above its 5-day EMA.

The momentum is set for a gap open, but if it is faded and the Fed doesn't deliver - then we could see a big bearish engulfing pattern. If the Fed comes through, then the 20-day and 50-day MA should be breached and provide additional support.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: none

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 19th: A mixed bag reaction; on a point basis it was clearly a day for the bulls, but the volume left alot to be desired. The NASDAQ finished at November-January resistance, although the NASDAQ 100 did enough to close above its November-January resistance (now support).

There are the workings of a "W" bottom in the NASDAQ, Dow, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000 and S&P - look to a break of last Monday's highs as confirmation cues. Tests of last weeks highs seem likely to occur on Tuesday for all bar the Dow. The other "W" bottom developing is in the $NAA50 (Nasdaq stocks above their 50-day MA); 1,031 needs to be broken to confirm.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: RGRP featured as a Subscriber pick for February 9th, but the stock crashed through its 50-day MA and stop price to close for a 15% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 18th: Swing traders have perhaps the most benefit given the relatively tight trading - trade break of highs/lows and place a stop at the opposite end of Friday's range. Given stochastics just stepped above oversold levels the significance of the bearish cover / bearish engulfing candlesticks created by Friday's close in the markets is reduced. The higher volume is a bigger concern for the likes of the NASDAQ, Dow, NASDAQ 100, and S&P as it ranked as a technical distribution day.

Relative strength switched back (again!) to a more bearish alignment - the fourth such change in a row {Tech indices > Large caps > Small caps}. Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] were consistent and continued to decline. The $NASI has some 750 points to run to oversold levels (based on Friday's 17 point loss, this could take some time - or 44 trading days if the rate of decline was to remain the same); the $NAA50 probably has another 600 points before reaching a bottom (but could find demand on another 300 point loss); the $BPCOMPQ has 23 points or so before it reaches oversold levels typical of bull markets (9 points in 3 weeks predicts a bottom in much the same time as the $NASI - or some 45 days away).

In summary, the last couple of weeks have acted like racers jostling at the start line. Will Monday see the starter gun fired? Bears have the momentum in their favor.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: SYMM failed to hold support as it drifted into its stop price. The March 12th Subscriber pick closed for a 5% loss.

Model portfolio: GMST was considered a stop hit for $3.99 (I missed that one - it currently trades at $4.10 as of Friday's close). The portfolio is all cash. I plan to rejig this feature in the future as I am not happy with its current format and I miss too many trades.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 15th: Minor gains on low volume disguised another shift in relative strength in the market; now small caps have reassumed their leadership roll {Small caps > Large caps > Tech indices}this is bullish, but for how long?

Even with the low volume, there were bullish crosses in the 20-day MA of on-balance-volume for the NASDAQ, Dow, NASDAQ 100 and S&P. I'm watching for the potential double bottom, but markets still have plenty of room to run before this becomes an issue.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: RMTR dipped into its stop price but still appears to be hugging declining support and the 200-day MA. The March 13th Breakout play closed for a 7% loss. WAVX gapped down into its stop price (but stalled at the 50-day MA). The March 13th Breakout play closed for a 10% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 14th: After Tuesday's calamity, Wednesday helped heal some of the open wounds left from the carnage. Buyers stepped in at February 2007 or November 2006 lows to bid up markets on heavier volume - enough to generate a double bottom watch. Friday/Monday's highs are important resistance levels in this regard - if buyers can bid the markets above these price points it will be enough to confirm these double bottoms. Unfortunately, I don't see the oversold levels in tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] to suggest this will be the case.

The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 closed with strong bullish piercing patterns, swinging the relative strength relationship on the markets in favor of tech leadership {Tech Indices > Large caps > Small caps}; a two day swing from bullish, to bearish, back to bullish. Large caps [Dow and S&P] found support at November reaction lows (in the case of the S&P it was picture perfect). The Russell 2000 was the only index to gain before either February or November lows were tested.

In summary, it is no longer the bears game to lose. The next few days will sort this battle of bulls (recent highs) and bears (February lows).

Target hit: none

Stop hit: GSS clipped its most recent stop at the very low of the day. The stock featured for February 9th and March 8th as a Subscriber pick. The former play closed for a 2% gain, the latter a 6% loss. ITWO drifted into its stop after 6 weeks of declines. The stock featured to Subscribers for December 21st and again for January 25th; the former play closed for a 1% loss, the latter for a 7% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 13th: Monday's upswing in relative strength was a cruel bull trap as sellers returned on volume; the selling shifted the markets back to their most bearish alignment {Large caps > Tech Indices > Small caps}. All markets were down on heavier volume and there was little in the way of optimism.

Should markets follow the measured move route over the next few weeks it would bring the NASDAQ down to 2,220 level; the NASDAQ 100 to 1,620; the Dow to 11,600; the Russell 2000 to 720; and the S&P to 1,320. Taking into consideration the eventual support levels of the summer 2006 bottom (i.e. the clean slice through the 200-day MAs), the above targets look reasonable as the basis of a tradable bottom.

How about Wednesday's action? November reaction lows are looking good for a spate of short term buying, this equates to 2,323 in the NASDAQ; 11,990 in the Dow; 1,698 in the NASDAQ 100; 750 in the Russell 2000; and 1,365 in the S&P.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: After a quiet few days it was back to the stop hits. ASTE featured as a Breakout for October 24th, November 9th, January 16th, and a Subscriber pick for March 8th. The Subscriber pick closed for a 4% loss; the three Breakout picks closed for a 29% gain, 13% gain, and a 6% gain. COSI gave up the ghost from its January 11th feature, it closed for a 12% loss. NM was a Subscriber pick for February 6th and a Breakout play for March 7th. The Breakout play closed for a 7% loss, the Subscriber pick for a 28% gain. ABPI was a Subscriber pick for March 12th and closed for a 3% loss. AXP was a pick for Tuesday, but given the hit financials took on the day it was no surprise to see this Subscriber pick close out for a 3% loss. TRC was a Subscriber pick for March 5th but it closed below the 200-day MA for a 3% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 12th: Another day of mild gains keeps the markets on track to test their 20-day and 50-day MAs. The most interesting index of those on my public Stockchart list was the gain in the semiconductor index; it trades well above its 50-day and 20-day MAs with technicals all in the green. The only caveat was the weak trend strength [+DI; AX < 20]. If it can break above 500 it would be the necessary kicker for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 to break February highs (and would also see a dramatic improvement in trend strength). The lack of volume since the mini-bottom has probably done enough to keep the bears calm. If there was a volume break of the 50-day MA in any of the indices it would set the cat amongst the pigeons. I don't think it will happen - but that doesn't mean it can't!

Market relative strength managed another step in favor of the bulls as small caps lept ahead of large caps {Small caps > Large caps > Tech indices}. Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] maintained their prior course with a small gain in the $NAA50 and losses for the $NASI and $BPCOMPQ.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: none

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 10th: Further indecision as markets closed on a series of dojis/spinning tops. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 closed the week on bearish engulfing patterns; the NASDAQ 100 doing so on higher volume. There was very little conviction from bulls to push their early advantage. The only significant change came with the relative performance of small caps [Russell 2000] over the tech averages {Large caps > Small caps > Tech indices}, an improving picture for bulls, but with the volume to support it, it will probably not amount to much. The 20-day MAs of some of the markets have dropped below the 50-day MAs and are likely upside tests for the bulls.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] were little changed and sit in neutral territory.

For the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll I have switched bearish as I look to the recent rally to falter.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: none

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 8th: The day started brightly for the bulls but morning gains couldn't hold as the markets drifted in afternoon trading. This left the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 at former November-January channel support on trading volume below that of previous days. The Dow and S&P were able to post more substantial gains, but along with the Russell 2000 there were bearish overtones with potential bearish rising wedges. Swing traders can play a break of Thursday's high/lows; bulls would look for an upside target of the 50-day MA; bears would look to Monday's lows as a target.

The biggest change in the tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] came on the bullish cross of the 5-day EMA by the $NAA50, but the bounce came from a relatively neutral 800 mark with the other two internals still overbought.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: VRSO gave up $1 support to close the February 27th Subscriber pick for a 9% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 7th: Bulls made a go on a follow through to Tuesday's gains, but came up short by the close of business. The bearish influence on the last hour of trading didn't adjust net volume higher which helped save the bulls bacon. Thursday is another day and the narrow range day is a short term trading opportunity; sell break of high/lows and place the stop 10 cents below/above the days range depending on the direction of the break.

The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 struggled at former November-January channel support, now resistance as the Dow and S&P failed to make much of an impression on supply created by the big red candlestick from last week. Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] remained weak as Tuesday's bounce stumbled.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: none

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 6th: The market took its first step as part of the "dead cat bounce". Short term traders will probably pump this rally to either the 50-day or 20-day MAs, depending on which of the two are lower. Traders looking for long term buying opportunities are best to wait on the sidelines until the tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] reach levels which have most in common with a stronger bottom. Volume declined over previous days, another indication the buying was not what it could have been.

 

Technically, the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are a few points shy of former support (now resistance) of the November-January sideway channels. Large caps [Dow and S&P] were able to close above support as defined by November reaction lows. While the Russell 2000 made it back above 770 in a steep short term advance. I haven't said too much about the semiconductor index in the last couple of days as it tries to hold bull flag support.

Tuesday's action looked to be typical short covering. Wednesday may give a better idea as to the state of buyers, except this time bears are firing from the parapet.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: COOL collapsed after early promise disappeared. The January 16th Subscriber pick closed for a 14% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 5th: Bears piled it on some more as bulls again failed to build on early gains. The situation looks ripe for a morning breakdown gap - but this could be the set up where bears bite off more than they can chew. Markets finally reached oversold levels on a short term basis - this included the Russell 2000. So again, there is a primed bounce ready to launch. November reaction lows outlined over the weekend are likely to see a test tomorrow; namely 2,323 in the NASDAQ, 11,990 in the Dow, 1,698 in the NASDAQ 100, 750 in the Russell 2000, and 1,364 in the S&P. The bounce (when it comes) will probably start to stall at the 50-day MAs overhead and this would be a good area to take profits and shift to a short side position.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] took another big step down, falling to neutral territory, but still well above oversold levels - so it is still too early to start looking for an intermediate term bottom. If we were to compare now to last May we are probably in the late May bounce zone (although on that occasion many of the markets were below their 200-day MAs) with another 2 months or so before a more substantial bottom is put in place.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: AIRM failed to get off the ground after opening below support and my stop price! For the purposes of my analysis it is considered a 3% loss. ANGO also suffered a similar fate as it dropped into its breakout gap, negating today's long play for a 3% loss. BTJ was a Subscriber pick for February 23rd and managed a late February breakout before failing along with the rest of the market. The play closed for a 10% loss. IMA was a Subscriber pick for January 29th and looked to be a stop out last week on a tick error, but today it did it for real. The play closed for a 4% loss. PJC was a long standing Subscriber pick from October 19th, but after months of insipid action it collapsed along with the market to close for a 12% loss. ROSE undercut support and its 50-day MA to close the January 8th Subscriber pick for a 3% loss. SPW suffered a wide range day after months of baby steps up. This hit the February 5th Subscriber stop price for a 4% loss. The earlier January 17th Subscriber pick closed for a 6% gain. IONA was a Breakout play for Februrary 26th but it succumbed to the selling to hit its stop for an 11% loss. OKE is a long standing Breakout for July 11th and again for November 29th. The July play closed for a disappointing 14% gain, the latter November play for a 3% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 3rd: What a week! Bulls were really winded by the blows of Tuesday and Friday. The big concerns from Friday's trading were the break of former channel support in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 and the ease at which the bulls stand on Thursday gave way. From a broader perspective, November reaction lows look the next most likely place to look for support; for the NASDAQ this means 2,323; for the Dow it's 12,113 (or 11,990); 1,698 is the level in the NASDAQ 100; 750 in the Russell 2000 (although the 770 level could still help out in a big way); and 1,364-1,381 in the S&P. If these levels fail then it will be the 200-day MAs, but given how these fared as support last May it's unlikely there will be much joy around these levels, so it will probably be lower again for the markets.

Volume has swung substantially in favor of bears and any rally which attempts to close the breakdown gaps from Tuesday will run into some serious supply concerns. Technicals are ugly and some markets (like the Russell 2000) are not fully oversold. Even more problematic were the continued overbought levels in the tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ]. These internals probably have 3-months of falling in their tanks so where this puts the NASDAQ (and other indices) remains to be seen. What it does from my perspective is to push my anticipated market bottom from April, out to May.

The year-on-year analysis remains unchanged. The cyclical bull market kicked off in late 2002 is still in play. New reaction highs from February maintained the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. It will take a break of July reaction lows and a lower high on the following bounce to confirm an end to this bull market. Bears going short would be playing a dangerous game until one can call this bull market over.

On a final note, at least volatility traders had something to celebrate.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: The selling fallout continues: BLX was a Subscriber pick from January 23rd; the previous day's tick error was not to be as the stop was hit Friday. The play closed for a 4% loss. KWD accelerated its 3-month decline to knock the December 4th Subscriber pick for a 7% loss. NFX lost its February 27th breakout to close the Subscriber pick for a 5% loss - a "Death Cross" was also left in its wake.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Mar 1st : After a one-day hiatus of the 'dead-cat-bounce' it was business as usual for the indices. The morning gap down set the tone for Thursday and although bulls managed to push the indices back towards Wednesday's close it was insufficient to change the net bearish picture (gaps trump candlesticks in this regard).

It wasn't all bad for the indices. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 both gapped below their respective support levels, but were able to close the day above November-January support lines. The semiconductor index managed a positive test of new support as marked by the bullish flag. Of all the indices the semiconductor index is perhaps best positioned to ride this down leg and is the one index which is well on its way to improving the long term health of the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100; a break of 500 here and it is off to the races for bulls. The Dow teased with November reaction lows along with the S&P. The Russell 2000 was interesting in that if fell a few points shy in its low of testing major support at 770.

Across the board, technicals are poor and all in red and many have yet to reach oversold levels (hard though that may be to accept). The tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] tell a similar story with sharp declines in all three. Bulls will have to be disappointed with the break in the bullish divergences of the ultimate oscillator from each of the three internals (the break was most prominent in the $NASI) as divergences tend to lead reversals in the core indicators. Also confirmed was the lower high in the $NASI which failed to correspond to the higher high in the NASDAQ. The $NASI also saw a fresh MACD 'sell' trigger to add salt to the wound.

I took a quick look at the futures and as of 2:19 am ET they are all up a couple of points. However, my opinion would favor a 'walk-down' to Thursday's lows - perhaps taking the best part of next week to do so. This will provide an opportunity for large position holders to unwind their assets without further rocking the market. There is more downside left, even if the short term picture (< 1 month) is perhaps more bullish (and this has been my call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll - I suspect we will see plenty of bears this week!).

Target hit: none

Stop hit: BUCY was a Breakout for February 20th but after gapping through breakout support it ran into its stop for an 11% loss. GTOP was a big loser Wednesday, hitting its January 18th Breakout play stop for a 14% loss. IHS featured as a Breakout play for December 21st, and drifted into its stop for a 5% loss. MNST clipped its stop on a break of the 50-day MA, Thursday, after a decent run; the stock first featured to Subscribers for July 13th, and again for November 15th, and January 12th. It made an appearance as one of my free picks for February 2nd. The subscriber picks closed for a 20% gain, 10% gain, and a 1% gain. The free Breakout play closed for a 6% loss. NDSN was another Subscriber/Free pick to bite the bullet. The December 21st Subscriber pick closed for a 3% gain. The later February 2nd Breakout play closed for a 4% loss. ONNN also traded back on profit taking after a strong run. The stock first featured for newsletter Subscribers for December 7th and later as free Breakout play for January 9th and again for February 14th. The Subscriber pick closed for a 35% gain. The two free picks closed for a 14% gain and a 5% loss respectively. TRT was a Breakout play for February 15th and failed to build on early promise. Watch for a close of the breakout gap (below my suggested stop price), but for my purposes this is treated as a 17% loss. ADST was a high risk speculative play which featured to Subscribers for January 30th. The stock crashed through its 50-day MA and into its stop for a 14% loss. ANH experienced a volatile last few days - enough so to hit its February 13th Subscriber stop price for a 2% loss. BSG clipped its stop as intraday action took it below support (but still above it 50-day MA). The February 20th Subscriber pick closed for a 5% loss. CDNS closed with a bullish engulfing pattern, but it wasn't enough to save it from been stopped; the stock featured for Subscribers on December 13th and again for January 31st and February 14th. The three plays, from oldest to most recent, closed for a 13% gain, a 6% gain, and a 3% loss. CUK had banked solid gains before those gains eroded in steady declines from early February. The November 20th Subscriber play fell $3 short of its upside target and registers as a 6% loss. DHI was able to gain traction at the 200-day MA but it didn't escape its January 24th Subscriber stop price for a 12% loss. PKTR closed on the second of two dojis, but the low of the second doji, while making a positive test of the 200-day MA also hit the December 4th Subscriber stop price for a 10% loss. REDF broke long standing support at $17.53 and cleanly hit its November 21st Subscriber stop price for an 11% loss. SFL suffered a wild ride over the last couple of days, whipping out its raised October 30th stop price for a 12% gain. UCBH was able to pick up support at the 50-day MA, but not before it ran into its raised stop price; the stock featured for Subscribers on January 29th and closed flat. PANL ambled down to its December 28th Subscriber stop price - but does look to have found support at the 200-day MA. An earlier December 11th feature closed for a 6% loss, the later featured took a larger 15% hit.

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