Not all stock links will work as some of the aforementioned stocks
have been removed from my public list.
Mar 30th: A day for consolidation as markets digested the latest GDP figures. Tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] traded flat, as money continued to cycle out of the Dow. Volume was below the prior days trading. Whatever concerns the market had about the data, it wasn't enough to trigger major selling. The two other points of note were; the break of the bearish divergence in the MACD of the NASDAQ
100; and continued support in the volatility index at 15 - a sign that fear lingers in the background, ready to pounce.
Target hit: EQIX was a Subscriber pick for February 24th. The stock reached its target price in the absence of company specific news. The play closed for a 27% gain.
Stop hit: none
Mar 29th: On Tuesday, bulls threw bears a dummy. On Wednesday it was all aboard, along with covering shorts and a mix of Big Money, to push Tech markets [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] past important resistance levels. Interestingly, the Dow wasn't able to enjoy the same level of gains, a good supporting sign for sector rotation from 'safe havens' to Tech. Further good news was the breach of the MACD bearish divergence in the NASDAQ (but as yet, not the NASDAQ
100). Tech markets have also put some significant distance, in terms of relative performance, from the large caps [Dow and S&P]. The semiconductor index was able to reverse yesterday's losses, but I have some concern with its bounce, coming prior to a test of the nearby 200-day MA. Small caps [Russell
2000] maintained their leadership role, although the strength of trend (as measured by ADX) remains weak.
It is a buyers market, but I maintain the cash-is-king attitude given the overbought nature of secondary tech indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ]. To put another way; if 100% represents a top and 0% a bottom, then the $BPCOMPQ is at 67%, the $NAA50 is at 84%; and the $NASI is at 73% (according to my measures). A rally from here could last a couple of months and it could be parabolic in nature - allowing for quick profits; but any rally will likely come down as quickly as it rises.
Target hit: KDN featured as a Breakout for January 20th; the stock reached its target for a 20% gain. BID featured to Subscribers on February 15th. The rally looks okay for now with next resistance around $36, but for my purposes it is a target hit for a 28% gain.
Stop hit: none
Mar 28th: Ben Bernanke swung his axe and the markets tumbled. Late afternoon trading was unable to hold early gains; especially in the NASDAQ and S&P. But some markets never got off the ground. The Dow was the big loser in this regard, but the semiconductor index was another index to suffer. The Russell
2000 clung to its leadership role. The bearish divergence in the MACD was breached in the latter index, but a similar divergence in the CCI of this index remained. Of the secondary tech indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ]; the $NAA50 switched back in favor of the bears, weakening the chance of a short term tech bounce. Also of concern was the ticking time bomb that is volatility. The index has likely found stronger support at 15, than it has resistance at 18 - this could see a sharp dose of fear over the coming weeks, which will pile on the misery for those who have bought into the market over the last couple of months.
The NASDAQ maintained channel resistance (drawn from January), reversing on higher volume, marking a technical distribution day. A move to support from November, and if volatility spikes, to the lower channel line (and/or the 200-day MA), looks favored as the index steps away from a channel breakout. Bulls will cling to the possibility of support at the 20-day/50-day MAs, but the index is running out of room to do this. The Dow was creamed as the index pushed through former broadening wedge resistance, down to the 20-day MA and February reaction highs. Bulls will need to step up to the plate tomorrow if this market is not to get swallowed in a wave of selling. Support at the 50-day MA as it converges with October would appear to be the best place to watch for a bounce. Volume selling did increase, but remained below average for the Dow. The semiconductor index looks destined to test the 200-day MA as the 20-day MA acts like a blanket of resistance. Technicals remain weak, most notably the -DI line above the +DI line. The S&P finished the day at 1,294 support (and the 20-day MA), but its MACD triggered a "sell" signal and this looks primed for further losses, with October support again on the menu.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: OPLK was a Breakout feature for March 23rd. The stop was hit for an 11% loss, but it did manage to stall at the 50-day MA. BFT hit its raised stop, but remains bullish over the near term. The stop was a cautionary measure to protect profits in a weak market. The breakout gap support at $8.00 should be viewed as a last line of defence if you are looking to give the trade a little more room. The January 26th Breakout play closed for a 13% gain and the December 29th Subscriber play closed for a 47% gain. The March 27th Subscriber play closed for a 3% loss. RAIL hit its raised stop after a downgrade by CIBC. The February 14th Breakout play closed for a 7% gain. The January 12th Subscriber play closed for a 29% gain, and the March 27th play closed for a 7% loss. The main concern in this stock is for a double top.
Mar 25th: Markets finished the week on quiet action as the trend for falling volume continued. In the near term, bulls will look best served by the tech averages, the NASDAQ in particular, as secondary tech indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] confirmed earlier crosses in the 5-day EMAs with supporting technical "buy" signals. The overall markets have re-aligned in typical bullish fashion with the Russell
2000 leading the NASDAQ, which leads the S&P (although the Dow is lording it over the NASDAQ). How far the markets can go is anyone's guess; but given the overbought nature of the market (the January-March consolidation did little to relieve such conditions), I suspect not very far.
Gold and silver were the week's star performers; breakouts in CDE, HL, KGC, GFI, PAAS, SIL, and SSRI were icing on the cake for metal miners.
Target hit: NCTY hit its Target price, but looks well positioned to continue its gains. Watch how it consolidates around $28 resistance. This March 7th play is considered closed for an 18% gain.
Stop hit: RRI hit its raised stop from December 13th after months of sideways trading. The free Breakout play closed for a 6% loss, the November 21st Subscriber play closed for a 4% gain. The stock did close the day on a doji; marking indecision on the the behalf of bulls and bears.
Mar 22nd: Markets traded a mixed bag; large caps [Dow and S&P] gained; but tech indices disappointed [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] as these indices struggled to follow large cap's lead. The majority of Tuesday's losses in the Dow and S&P were reversed as broadening wedge support held in the Dow, and 1,294 in the S&P. Volume climbed in the Dow to rank the buying as a technical accumulation day. The Russell
2000 was able to ride the coattails of the large caps, as October trendline support held on another test; there may also be a break of the bearish divergence in the MACD of this index. Still no reason to be putting large sums of money to work here.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: TELK gapped down, but rallied through the day to hit its stop. The February 13th Breakout play closed for a 7% loss, while the January 12th Subscriber pick closed for a 2% loss. ACTG was a Subscriber pick for February 23rd; the play closed for an 8% loss. COLY didn't last a day; the Subscriber pick closed for a 6% loss. SNPS was a Subscriber pick for March 16th, but was the first of my ADX scan stocks to hit their stop; the play closed for a 4% loss.
Mar 21st: Bears made their presence felt with heavy volume selling throughout the afternoon. The NASDAQ head-faked a bull breakout, reversing to a loss on the day, but closing just above the convergence of the 20-day and 50-day MAs. Technicals cling to green; but it looks like the bearish divergence in the MACD will hold, as on-balance-volume starts to rollover. The NASDAQ
100 failed to hold an early break of 1,700 - closing right on the 20-day MA after breaking 4-day lows. As with the NASDAQ, the bearish divergence in the MACD looks set to hold. Salvation from the semiconductor index is looking less likely, as early (sizable) gains were returned to the store on increasing technical weakness. The Dow also reversed early gains, but no to the same extent as the Tech indices. Support of the broadening wedge is holding, but it will only be a matter of time before this follows the Tech indices down. Similar story for the S&P as 1,294 support held. There is still some room for this index to drop to its 20-day MA, then October support, so it will take more than a couple of days selling to kill its bullish run. The Russell
2000 was less fortunate, with a reversal of its move above 742. The long term October support line is a few points below the 20-day MA and this will be a major test for the small cap index.
The Tech Secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] begun to reverse the earlier bullish (whipsaw) signal; the $NAA50 now sits below its 5-day EMA. Expect the $BPCOMPQ and $NASI to soon follow.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: FCBP hit its stop as the sell off accelerated. The stock featured as a Subscriber pick for January 24th, and as a free Breakout for March 2nd. The former play closed for a 1% gain, and the latter for a 4% loss. KNDL featured as a Breakout for February 15th, and March 20th. The former play closed for an 8% gain, and the latter a 7% loss. IONA was a Breakout feature for March 7th. The play closed for an 8% loss, even though the stock closed higher today (a new stop could be placed on a loss of Monday's reaction low if still holding). TNE retraced below its stop price down to the 200-day MA, with the last vestiges of support at $16.69. Aggressive buyers could enter here. The play closed for an 9% loss. TUTS intraday volatility took out this March 14th play for a 6% loss, but the stock did manage a positive test of the 200-day MA. Aggressive buy here. ZENX was a penny stock play which ultimately disappointed. The March 14th play closed at the 50-day MA, but hit its stop for a 16% loss. TCP was a Subscriber play for March 15th. The stock did find support at the 200-day MA, but the play hit its stop for a 6% loss. USNA was a Subscriber play from February 9th, but a series of losses after early gains, have pushed this through the stop price for a 4% loss.
Mar 19th: Another day of indecision for the markets. The Russell
2000 flashed a second doji in a row at point above support. Without knowing the volume, it is hard to say what is going on here - but assuming relative trading volumes similar to that of other markets, the likely action is heavier volume, bearish churning. Small caps still 'lead' the market, but the picture is very fluid. The one market which may muster a bounce is the semiconductor index. The small doji just above support, on oversold slow stochastics, could drive a small bounce to last Wednesday's highs; but beyond that it will likely struggle. Any bounce in this index should help the NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100, but both of these indices are overbought and vulnerable. The Dow logged its fourth consecutive accumulation day, but the 26 point gain on 600m volume was disappointing. The S&P closed Friday on a small doji (also on higher volume, for its fourth accumulation day) - this looks to be an excellent swing traders cue; trade break of high/low - stops on the reverse side.
Tech secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] remain on the bullish side of the fence; i.e. all three are above 5-day EMAs. But, none of these indicators are showing technical strength (wrt: MACD, slow stochastics, and ADX). Volatility is once again preparing for its next run to scare the markets.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: WIRE first featured as a Subscriber pick for September 16th, it later featured as a Breakout play for November 2nd, February 1st, and March 2nd. The respective plays closed for an 83% gain, 38% gain, 10% gain, and a 9% loss. There is a good chance for a bounce off the 50-day MA (watch for this on Monday), so further gains cannot be ruled out; but for my purposes the play is exited.
Model portfolio: RAVN was stopped out at $33.89.
Mar 16th: Another mixed bag of action. Continued strength in the Dow on a third consecutive day of accumulation was tempered by huge volume reversals, at resistance, in both Tech markets [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100]. The irony of tech action was the final switch in the $NASI of the three tech secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] to a bullish cross above the 5-day EMA signal line. This should be viewed as another whipsaw signal given the net overbought conditions of these indicators.The semiconductor index was the drag on the day, pushing below 505 on increased technical weakness. All this was in contrast to the Dow, which followed yesterday's break of broadening wedge resistance, with a break of the bearish divergence in the MACD trigger line. The second index to do so, after the S&P. The Russell
2000 struggled to make a difference, closing up just a point. Small caps still lead large caps, which are streaking ahead of the tech indices, not an ideal situation to have if you are a bull.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: DANKY hit its newly raised stop from March 15th after reversing the earlier breakout. The Subscriber play from December 21st closed for a 16% gain, the Breakout play closed for an 8% loss.
Mar 15th: There were solid gains in large cap [Dow and S&P] and small cap [Russell
2000] indices, as the Russell
2000 reassumed its leadership role. The S&P was able to build on Tuesday's gains and was the first index to break the bearish divergence in the MACD. Technically, all S&P indicators sit in the green, but this is a rally triggered from overbought levels; good for rapid gains, but rarely sustainable. There is good news for bulls, as the rally benefits from the broader participation of the S&P, no longer limiting new highs to the Dow, not to mention, a potential breakout in the Russell
2000 lurking in the wings. Its a fine call on the Russell
2000 breakout, and Thursdays action will give a better idea as to whether this is support, or resistance. The tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] are up against resistance, but traded on higher volume - a potential sign of (bearish) churning. Tech gains were enough to trigger MACD 'buy' signals in each index. The semiconductor index was quiet, consolidating Tuesday's gains. Large caps look the safest haven, but not much is sticking in this market; 30% of Subscriber picks and 25% of Breakout picks for March have hit their stop price.
As for the tech secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ], the $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ each crossed above the 5-day EMAs.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: NAFC was a Subscriber pick from March 9th. The stock dipped below its most recent reaction low to hit its stop price for a 6% loss. The stock was able to close above the near term lows, as the 50-day MA did enough to drive demand.
Mar 14th: I was surprised with the broad sweep of the rally and the modest increase in volume to go with it; there was a channel breakout in the NASDAQ, a bear trap in the Russell
2000, and new closing highs in the large caps. The S&P took the days laurels as it pushed past 1,294 resistance on a measured accumulation day, to close at new 5-year highs. The bearish divergence in the MACD of this index is close to breaking, and if it does, it will end a 3-month hangover on the index. The Dow also closed at new near term highs, but the index remains contained inside the boundaries of broadening wedge resistance. The gains in the index barely ranked as a technical accumulation day, but the failure of the index to drop below the October support trendline is good news for the bulls. The Russell
2000 was able to regain October support, negating yesterday's bearish doji. Will it be able to reassert a leadership role? Bulls will need it to do so if bullish momentum is not to remain concentrated in the Dow. The semiconductor index made more of a fight at 505 support, but this index could go either way; its' technicals are weak, but deeply oversold.
Tech secondary indicators were boosted to the extent of a bullish 5-day EMA crossover in the $NAA50, but all three indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] are at levels which have more in common with tops, than bottoms.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: RDCM clipped its stop after an earlier failed break of $5.00 resistance. The stock featured as a free Breakout for November 8th, and February 27th, and as a Subscriber pick for January 20th. The three plays closed for a 60% gain, 13% loss, and a 12% gain. AVID was an oversold Subscriber pick from February 28th. The stock clipped its stop intraday, only for it to close at support. Keep this on a watch list - a break of today's highs ($44.50) would make an interesting long. The play closed for a 5% loss. WGO was a Subscriber pick for March 10th. The stock dipped below trendline support, sufficiently deep enough to hit the stop price for a 6% loss, but was able to close above the 50-day and 200-day MA support.
Mar 13th: Monday was an extension of Friday's trading. There was little to add, other than what looks to be confirmed resistance in the Russell
2000; a convergence of former, rising support from October - turned resistance - and 735 resistance, which marked the January reaction high. Tomorrow is another day.
Target hit: None
Stop hit: CIPH featured as a breakout for March 7th. Early gains didn't stick and the stock closed for a 12% loss.
Mar 11th: Friday's across the board gains were undermined by accompanying lighter volume; a common sign of short covering. However, Friday's action was not without its positives, most notably, the reversal of the breakdown in the S&P. Modest gains on modest volume, would be the best description for the days' trading action. The Dow enjoyed a substantial point gain, enough to close the index above the 20-day MA and 11,000, but the broadening wedge remains intact. October trendline support could provide the launching pad for a break of wedge resistance, and even with the lighter volume, the Dow could still offer some value to the bulls - but this is likely going to be the only index to give any comfort over the coming months, and will eventually succumb to the malaise affecting the remaining markets. The NASDAQ
100 held former resistance (now support), but watch for a potential measured move back to 1,570 (support, or no support). The 200-day MA inches ever closer and may provide some support before then. Further support may come from the semiconductor index, which is loitering around the 500-505 level and is short term oversold. The Russell
2000 worked a bounce from the 50-day MA, but remains contained by new resistance at the former October support line. Buyers beware.
After a couple of weeks of mild bullish action, the tech secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] took a sizable step in the direction of the bears, confirming the sidelines (i.e. cash) as the safest place to be at the moment. Volatility rose to meet 18 resistance and looks ready to advance further, injecting another level of uncertainty into a weak market. Precious metals may not be the best haven to hide as double tops take shape in gold, and silver, supported by bearish divergences in their respective MACD trigger lines. One could argue for a support buy at $542 in gold - but keep stops on a loss of Friday's lows to be safe if buying. The bearish divergences in the precious metal MACDs, was also apparent in some of the precious metal miners, e.g. BGO, PAAS, and HL. Cash is king.
Target hit: FTEK was a Subscriber pick for February 6th and reached its target for a 27% gain.
Stop hit: JBL featured as a Breakout for March 21st 2005, June 23rd, November 25th, and January 20th, cut below near term support to hit its most recent stop price. The four plays closed for 36% gain, 19% gain, 11% gain, and 5% loss respectively. OATS closed Friday on a weak bullish harami, but the lows of the day were enough to knock the most recent stop to close the February 6th play for a 19% gain, and the February 28th play for a 7% loss. VSH was a Subscriber pick from October 31st, which gapped down on Friday and into its stop price for a 21% gain.
Mar 9th: The theme of technical weakness continued. Following the NASDAQ switch yesterday was the Russell
2000 and the S&P, as all three technical indicators in these indices switched to the red. Only the Dow remains in 'green' territory. Volume eased from yesterday's selling - reducing some of the pressure on the bulls, but it was still an ugly day to be a buyer. Did the NASDAQ
100 lose support? There is still a chance markets could bounce at 1,637, but the 200-day MA looks the most probable area to find support. The same goes for the NASDAQ, although a convergence of former channel support and the 200-day MA, would strengthen this support. The semiconductor index jinxed below 505 support, leaving the 200-day MA the next support area to aim for (although it could easily climb back above 505 tomorrow). The Russell
2000 is deteriorating fast; the 50-day MA is not looking like the support level it it was going to be - a more protracted decline could follow, leaving the 200-day MA as the future support level in this index too. The Dow remained tied between the 20-day and 50-day MAs. The S&P experienced a double blow; not only did its technicals turn red, but the index made a confirmed break of October support. It is never good to see the index, with the smallest component of stocks, lead the market. Don't believe the hype.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: PARL hit its stop after a reported Exec sale of stock. The February 9th breakout play closed for a 14% loss. BKUNA hit its stop on light trading. The January 23rd Subscriber play closed for a 6% loss. FSS also hit its stop on modest losses. The February 22nd Subscriber pick closed for a 5% loss.
Mar 8th: Yesterday's action was dominated by price. Today it was the turn of volume. Not only was volume higher, but there were additional technical confirmation signals. In the NASDAQ, the MACD trigger line switched to a 'sell' signal, as slow stochastics crossed below the bullish mid-line. The higher volume selling confirmed the second distribution day over the last four trading days. The NASDAQ
100 was more fortunate in its small, bullish hammer, held former declining resistance/support line - but not before it generated a 'sell' signal in its MACD, thus strengthening the bearish divergence in the trigger line. The semiconductor index was able to stall recent declines at 505 and is, in the short term, oversold. For now, look to a bounce to the 20-day MA, but such a move would likely provide only temporary relief.
The Dow avoided the carnage and was able to post modest gains on light volume. The index closed beneath the 20-day MA, but held support of the 50-day MA. The S&P made a higher volume stand at October trendline support, doing so on a bullish hammer - although given the position of slow stochastics at this point, the bullish hammer looks to be a weak reversal signal. The Russell
2000 made a token stand at the 50-day MA, but technical weakness increased.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: EFJI hit its' raised stop after the second day of volatile trading. The stock featured as a Breakout for August 22nd, September 14th, Decemember 13th, and February 3rd. The plays closed for a 34% gain, 14% gain, 2% gain and a 9% loss respectively. The stock did manage to finish the day above the 50-day MA. Earnings are scheduled for Thursday. FII hit its stop after it finished the day on a small doji. If still holding, I would use todays' lows of $37.50 as a new stop price. The January 13th Breakout play closed flat. The February 15th play closed for a 4% loss. The September 16th Subscriber play closed for a 14% gain. HOMS was a Breakout for March 6th, but it failed to follow through - closing for a 12% loss. Also on the same day, INFY, hit its stop following disappointing earnings. The play closed for a 11% loss. IM hit its stop after a morning gap down. The February 16th Breakout play closed for an 8% loss. DIET was a Subscriber pick from March 7th. Although the stock closed the day strong, it did hit my suggested stop price for an 8% loss. Company earnings are due on Thursday at 10:30am ET. FMCN gapped down at the open and through its stop price, following Tuesday's after hours earnings release. The Subscriber pick closed for a 9% loss. CUP was a Subscriber pick from February 6th. The stock couldn't build on early gains, instead reversed to close below $3.23 support, the 50-day MA, and hit its stop for a 16% loss. SBSA was a base breakout, which retreated below $5.69 support, 50-day MA, and hit its suggested stop price. Earnings are also set for Thursday. The February 13th Subscriber play closed for a 9% loss. TRE had looked promising at its 50-day MA, but pre-market news, scuppered this support. The March 3rd Subscriber pick closed for a 14% loss.
Mar 7th: Tuesday was a day when support gave way in a number of indices. The only saving grace for the bulls was the lighter volume. The NASDAQ cut below both its 20-day and 50-day MAs, to end the day inside the former bullish channel. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ failed over the course of February's rally, to regain the former October support line, and looks destined for worse to come given what happened in the semiconductor index. The break of October support in the latter index was comprehensive, and it will take a small miracle to get it back. A loss of 508 will confirm a triple top in the semiconductor index. Ugly technical picture doesn't help matters. The NASDAQ
100 may have found support at former January resistance but did on a close below the 20-day MA. The 200-day MA at 1,614 looks to be the next logical test (assuming former January resistance, fails to generate a bounce on Wednesday).
The S&P was able to struggle above October support, finishing just shy of the 50-day MA. The MACD 'sell' signal increases the significance of the bearish divergence in the MACD trigger line. While at support, it's an aggressive buy, with a stop on a loss of 1,271 - but technicals do not support this position (so one has been warned). The Dow managed to stay out of the train wreck and still has the 50-day MA to look forward too as support. But the 'sell' signal in its MACD trigger line (and influencing bearish divergence) is still problematical. The Russell
2000 was less fortunate as it joined the semiconductor index in its loss of October support. The breakdown was supported with a MACD trigger line 'sell' signal, a cross in +DI/-DI line, and a switch to Tech leadership (relatively).
Target hit: none
Stop hit: ADCT featured as a Breakout for November 18th, January 19th, and February 2nd. The stock hit its stop, and closed below the 50-day MA. The November play closed for a 22% gain, the January play for a 3% loss, and the February play for a 8% loss. ACLS featured as a Breakout for January 17th, and February 10th. The breakout gap may still act as support, but the stock finished below reaction lows. The January play closed for a 21% gain, and the February play closed for a 12% loss. BIVN was a Breakout for February 24th and although it ended the day at the 50-day MA, the stock hit its stop for an 11% loss. DOVP experienced a stop wipeout. The stock closed the day with a bullish hammer, on light volume, to knock out the February 6th and 23rd plays for an 8% gain, and a 2% loss respectively. FCEL hit its raised stop after disappointing on earnings. The March 2nd Breakout play closed for a 5% loss, and the January 13th Subscriber play for a 10% gain. TRMS stop was clipped as the stock trades in a sideways pattern (still looks okay - but my recommended stop price was hit). The January 31st play was stopped out for an 8% loss, while the January 3rd Subscriber play finished at breakeven. BBC was a Subscriber play for March 3rd but cut below $14.72 support to hit its stop price for a 7% loss. CAV collapsed through its 50-day MA after two days of earlier selling. The February 9th Subscriber play closed for a 7% loss. CORS was a Subscriber pick from January 18th. The stock crashed through its 200-day MA, hitting its stop for a 6% loss. SFY was an oversold play which hit its stop after yesterday's close below $38.32 support. The February 15th play closed for a 5% loss. SMA was another play to disappoint. The February 17th play closed for a 13% loss as it gapped below the 50-day MA. TBH reversed its breakout, the March 2nd Subscriber play closed for a 4% loss. TSN was an oversold Subscriber play from March 3rd, managed to close the day on a small hammer - but not before hitting its earlier stop for a 5% loss. Finally, ZIGO hit its stop after selling on heavy volume in the absence of company specific news. The February 8th Subscriber play closed for a 7% loss after crashing through its 50-day MA.
Mar 6th: Monday's losses looked bad on paper, but there wasn't the surge in volume which accompanied Friday's selling. The biggest hits were taken in the tech secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ]; the $BPCOMPQ, followed the $NASI and $NAA50, with a bearish cross of the 5-day EMA. Volatility jumped 8% and injected a modicum of fear into the markets.
Was there good to be found? The NASDAQ has a convergence of the 20-day MA and 50-day MA at 2,277, combined with former channel resistance, to help lend support on further weakness. Although, the bearish divergence in the MACD trigger line is the dominant factor in this index. The semiconductor index is on its fourth test of October support, with the 50-day MA just 4 points below. A break of the 50-day MA could see some pain, and as with the NASDAQ, its technical picture is weak. The NASDAQ
100 is in a sideways trading morass, locked between the 20-day and 50-day MAs. As with the prior two tech indices, its technical indicators are weak, dominated by the MACD bearish divergence.
Large caps had to deal with an S&P test of October support, combined with the 20-day, and 50-day MAs, and a Dow break of its 20-day MA, but with the 50-day MA still to come. The Russell
2000 endured a poor day, as 735 support gave way, only for the 20-day MA at 729 to step up and help provide support.
Target hit: BEXP was a Subscriber short play for November 25th. One of the few to actually play to form. The play closed for a 35% gain.
Stop hit: CIB featured as Breakouts for November 1st, December 22nd, and March 3rd. The three plays closed for 37% gain, 16% gain, and a 5% loss based on my most recent stop, although the stock was able to bounce off the 50-day MA. The next few days will be critical for it. BLT was a Subscriber pick for February 14th, but the stock failed to generate the test of $18.24 resistance I was looking for. The stock closed for an 8% loss. CREAF was an oversold play which closed below the next level of support. The February 22nd play closed for a 6% loss. D was a Subscriber pick from November 3rd. The stock was unable to test $87 resistance, trading sideways, until Monday's loss of support and stop hit. The play closed for a 4% loss. STR broke below near term support to hit its stop price. The earlier bullish divergences are still intact, but this is no longer the long signal it once was. The March 1st play closed for a 3% loss.
Mar 4th: Friday's action was like the return of a chill winter air in the midst of early spring. Late afternoon selling at the time of day when the Real Money speaks, will have bulls looking over their shoulder for next week. The NASDAQ bounced off former October support for yet another day. The surge in volume continued the game of one upmanship between bulls and bears. Bulls will have their work cut out for the next week. The NASDAQ
100 endured the same punishment, but unlike the NASDAQ, it closed below the 50-day MA. Selling volume was not as great (relatively) than that of the NASDAQ. The softened blow could have been due to the mild sell off experienced by the semiconductor index. Tech secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] are trading close to their 5-day EMA's and are vulnerable to whipsaw signals. An example of this was the bearish switch in the $BPCOMPQ, and $NAA50. In the case of the former indicator, the bearish signal looks dominant given the weakness in the MACD. In the $NAA50, the trading channel is the signal line, but the MACD favors the bears too.
Large caps spent most of the day watching from the sidelines. The Dow was able to stay above the 20-day MA, but couldn't hold early day gains above 11,047. At one point, the S&P was able to make a trip above 1,294 - but by the end of the day it was near the lows of its daily range. The Russell
2000 was quiet, and didn't sweat a trip below 735 support. This is the silver lining for bulls on a day when Tech indices took all the headlines.
Target hit: FNSR took a rocket ship on Friday, as it reported a profit of $0.03 a share, well ahead of breakeven expectations. The stock featured to Subscribers on February 24th and is worth watching for further upside. For my purposes it is a target hit, and the position is closed for a 46% gain. ZOLT was a Breakout feature for February 2nd, and a Subscriber feature for January 13th. The Subscriber feature closed for a 70% gain, and the Breakout feature for 25% gain.
Stop hit: CBST was a breakout for Friday which was caught out by an overly tight stop placement. The stock managed to close the day at support. The play closed for a 6% loss. APPX was a Subscriber play from February 17th which hit its stop, but could also be putting in place a double bottom. One to watch. The play closed for a 7% loss. OTTR was a Subscriber pick for March 1st, but has suffered consecutive day losses towards hitting its stop on Friday. The stock closed for a 6% loss. GENR hit its stop, after brief gains were swept away. The February 24th play closed for a 13% loss.
Model portfolio: CHS stopped out.
Mar 2nd: The bulk of yesterday's gains held during Thursday's lighter trading. The NASDAQ closed at the upper Bollinger band, just below October trendline resistance. The NASDAQ
100 closed above the 50-day MA, but wasn't able to make any headway above 1,700. Tthe semiconductor index finished on a "spinning top" (small 'real body' - difference between open and closing price, longer 'shadows' above and below the open/close range), and could provide a swing trade opportunity on a break of these high/lows. The Dow finished below 11,047 support but held the 20-day MA for a third day. The S&P could still push a breakout, as it finished the day in the upper portion of yesterday's range. The Russell
2000 held above 735 support and was able to maintain its leadership role for another day.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: GENR featured for February 24th as a Breakout play. The stock reversed sharply, cutting below its 200-day MA and back to its 50-day MA as the company reported a wider Q loss.
Mar 1st: Wednesday's buying was perhaps the first real sign of an accumulation day, which offered something other than short covering. In the chart of the NASDAQ, I have drawn in the October support line, and it is clear there is resistance to overcome, other than 2,332 highs. However, Wednesday's volume topped what had been a firm distribution day on Tuesday. There is still the issue of the MACD bearish divergence, but all-in-all, it was a good day for this index. The NASDAQ
100 closed the day above the 50-day MA once again, on volume vastly superior to yesterday's selling. The index has started to outperform the S&P, much like the NASDAQ had indicated last week. This shift in leadership from Large caps to Tech is good to see. The real performer on the day was the semiconductor index. Its big gain helped re-establish the prior support trendline, and in the process, pushed past the 20-day MA. There is still the issue of the doji double top at 559/556 to consider, but there should be enough bullish momentum to warrant a test of these highs.
The Dow found some comfort in the 20-day MA, which helped push the index above 11,000 and 11,047, and negate Tuesday's breakdown. Similarly, the Russell
2000 knocked out the bull trap from Tuesday, closing at new multi-year highs. The S&P was less successful in its efforts to challenge 1,294, and it was the days' weakest performer.
As things stand, there is the correct alignment in the indices for a bull market: Russell
2000 > NASDAQ/NASDAQ
100 > Dow/S&P. Tech secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] are all back above their 5-day EMAs (reversing yesterday's bearish reversals), although their respective technical indicators remain weak.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: none
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