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June 30th: The Fed disappointed investors with its 'measured' intentions. Markets sold off in late afternoon trading, reversing much (if not all) of the work the bulls had managed earlier during the week. This was most apparent in the secondary indicators with both the $NASI and $NAA50 turning negative (again) as bearish pressures from the MACD histogram and CCI of the $BPCOMPQ increased. The bear trap in the Dow was blown away as the index again ducked below its former trendline leaving it some 20 points away from support of the bullish 'morning star'. The leap in downside volume was another tick in the distribution column, the fourth distribution day in eight days for this index. The S&P also clocked in a big loser, managing five distribution days over the last eight days. It held support of a 38% fib retracement and a bullish 'morning star' but this developing sideways consolidation could break either way - although secondary indicators ($BPSPX and $SPXA50) suggest this move will be down. The Russell 2000 didn't escape the selling as it ended the day with a bearish engulfing pattern at overbought slow stochastics and on a growing bearish divergence in the CCI. The tech averages were governed by further weakness in the Sox as the NASDAQ 100 threatened new near term lows following the failure of the bullish zero line by the MACD trigger line and a broadening of the sell off in on-balance-volume. Only the NASDAQ managed any form of a stand. It maintained its early week bear trap (bullish), but did so at the expense of a distribution day, the fourth in six days. The intermediate term rally from May looks cooked. Stay on the sidelines until a new reaction high and low are in place and there is a solid uptick in the secondary indicators (which by their whipsaw nature can be considered 'neutral' at best).

Breakout targets: none

Breakout failures: none

June 29th: Tuesday's gains failed to build into a meaningful rally. The NASDAQ stalled at the 20-day MA while the NASDAQ 100's MACD trigger line dipped below the bullish zero line. The Sox confirmed 426 resistance - adding to tech misery. On the flip side, the secondary indicator $NASI turned bullish - sufficient to place all three secondary indicators back on the bullish side of the court. The tech indices were not the only indices to struggle; the Dow managed a weak test of the 200-day MA but it was not enough to bring a higher close, instead the index closed below its 50-day MA. The S&P, like the NASDAQ, struggled at its 20-day MA. Higher volume in the S&P, NASDAQ 100, and NASDAQ ranked today as a distribution day and brought a return to the Big Money selling from last week. Still looks to be a sellers rally, even with the secondary indicators back in the green. Remain cautious until we see a resumption of accumulation (i.e. Big Money buying). The Fed will provide the first point of reaction for such an event.

Breakout targets: ARMHY featured for October 22nd and June 23rd hit it's stop after some heavy volume selling. Looks a good sell here. FLML featured for June 10th and as a gold member pick for May 9th. The MACD trigger line suggests consolidation so buy back on a break of the 3-week resistance line.

Breakout failures: none

June 28th: We continued to see a non-confirmation of yesterday's failed 'three black crows', aided by short term oversold conditions. I would remain cautious - the gains were good to see but there wasn't the upswing in buying to suggest the Big Money were joining the party. At the moment it looks to be the kind of rally to sell into - but all this would change if we saw a solid break of 2,100 in the NASDAQ. or 650 in the Russell 2000 as money would pour into these indices (both these indices lead bull rallies, the Dow is traditionally the last index to react given it holds most of the 'safety' issues). The NASDAQ did manage a bear trap - often a powerful counter play which has been has been evident in earlier bull traps this year, and should act inversely, sending markets higher. Technicals remain firm with on-balance-volume bouncing off its 20-day MA while the MACD trigger line maps a bullish consolidaiton. Unlike the NASDAQ 100, the NASDAQ did not reach its measured move target down. The NASDAQ 100 is slighlty more vulnerable as its supporting technicals are closer to all turning red (with the MACD trigger line just hovering above the bullish zero line). A weak Sox isn't helping matters although the bounce off the lower BB band should see a test of the 20-day MA at a minimum. The Dow made a large one-day reversal on light volume - eating into most of last Friday's losses and leaving behind a bullish 'morning star' candlestick pattern. Tuesday's close did manage to regain April/May support and the 50-day MA, but the 200- and 20-day MA remain overhead as future supply. All three technical indicators are on a 'sell' so I would be hesitant to buy this index at this point in time. The S&P also closed on a bullish morning star - although it too looks vulnerable to further weakness with technicals on the verge to shifting into the red. The bounce off the 62% fib retacement line is a bonus but with the 20-day SMA directly overhead it may struggle to make further gains without an increase in buying volume. The index which may surprise is the Russell 2000. If this can break 645 and 650 supply levels it could go on a tear. I would use the +DI/-DI line as your buy/sell trigger (currently a 'buy' after surviving last weeks dip).

Of the secondary indicators. The $BPCOMPQ continued to hold its own as the $NAA50 reversed back in favor of the bulls. The $NASI is close to doing likewise, but remains on a 'sell'.

Breakout targets: none

Breakout failures: none

June 27th: Mixed news as oil again filled the headlines (for want of something different). The good news was there was no confirmation of the 'three black crows'. On other good news was the 50-day MA held as support in the NASDAQ 100 with only the Dow below this important moving average. On the flip side, the Sox lost near term support which should filter to further weakness in the tech indices. The measured moves in the tech markets were reached and this should be a stall in the decline. The Dow's three technical indicators turned red and the $NASI joined the $NAA50 in consolidation mode. Only the $BPCOMPQ has held its advance - although it ticked down Monday. The S&P secondary indicators are all in the red which favors a move to the sidelines if long and a switch to short positions if your time frame is measured in days or less.

Breakout targets: none

Breakout failures: none

June 25th: A rocky last two days for markets turned them on their head. Traders will now be looking at potential bearish 'three black crows' in each of the key markets. Should we see a Monday which repeats last Friday's, or Thursday's action, we will have a confirmation signal for this bearish formation. This would likely knock the secondary indicators into full scale bear mode, but would leave markets deeply oversold in the short term. A rally towards Friday's opening levels would provide additional selling opportunities in long positions. It would likely take a few weeks to reset the markets and bring forward fresh breakout candidates, which to date have been few and far between (hence the reappearance of prior breakout and gold member plays on the Breakout page). On the plus side, sharp shocks like these will provide value buying opportunities as money rotates into new sectors. Last week's heavy selling hasn't changed the long term picture of a sideways market since January 2004. In such an environment one should be buying trips to support; 1,750 in the NASDAQ, 9,800 in the Dow, 1,400 in the NASDAQ 100, 580 in the Russell 2000, and 1,150 in the S&P, and selling tests of resistance 1,225 in the S&P, 645 in the Russell 2000, 1,560 in the NASDAQ 100, 10,800 in the Dow, and 2,200 in the NASDAQ. Intermediate term traders should be buying and selling the markets depending on crosses of the 5-day EMA of the secondary indicators [$NAA50, $NASI and $BPCOMPQ]. Short term traders should trade in the direction of the secondary indicator EMAs. Swing traders take advantage of low volatility (tight Bollinger bands) - last week was a swing traders heaven. Next week could see the unwinding of intermediate term long positions. Long term traders are likely on the sidelines, holding, or waiting for further weakness before buying. I have listed below are brief summary of current Breakout plays which are showing signs of weakness.

Not all stocks had it bad - LM which was a breakout feature for January 25th soared. However, if you own any of the following Breakout stocks one should be looking to lighten up. ANF (strong run), ADEX (potential double top), KAR (broke a 4-month consolidation to the downside and looks particularly weak), AMHC (earlier gap down and a weak market threaten further downside), ARB (bull trap), ARTC (reversing back to the pennant apex), GR (a drop below $39.67 will see this acclerate down), BSTE (holding on to support, but earlier losses dominate), CCCG (bearish 'tower' sequence following a gap down), CKR (stone dropping Friday), FCN (back to the lows of the breakout day - further lossess could bring price collapse), HHS (bull trap), HTCH (fast approaching $36.69 support), IMAX (hanging on - but break of $10.28 has failed), TRDO (never liked black candlesticks, particular one which followed after a gap down), KOMG (early June gains on huge volume has now turned into future supply for any rally), LNCR (struggling - but holding support, just), OO (potential double top - but has enjoyed a good run), OPTN (double top - but it would take a loss of $12.45 to confirm), PPH (lurking at $73.45 support), STMP (sell side volume increasing matching downward velocity), TALX (rollover from earlier gravestone doji), and TSA (bull trap).

Gold member picks haven't escaped weakess. CA reversed a break of $28.25 resistance with a heavy volume gap down. Last week saw the gap closed, but watch for a break of $27.00 support. CCK is forming a bearish descending triangle with support at $14.00. A close below $14.00 would set a downside target of $11.00. CL three test of $48 - can it survive a fourth. DF remains dominated by the heavy volume (bearish) black candlestick of $42.10 highs. Not much support until $33. FLSH cut below $21.50 support, $19.00 is next. GLB's losses Friday were preceded by five days of long upper shadowed candlesticks - a sign of supply. HUBG - downward decline has sliced through the 200-day MA for a second time. NSM's gravestone doji is a sign of weakness, loss of $21.00 could see an accleration to the downside. ORBK closed Friday right on $20.68 support, $20.00 is next support with a downside target of $18.00. POOL closed below $34.00 support confirming a double top.

Breakout targets: none

Breakout failures: BJRI featured for June 7th, it managed to reach highs of $22.61 before it gapped down on a downgrade. It closed for a 2% loss. CYCL was shaken out intraday, but closed strong on heavy volume - for the purpose of my analysis its stop price was hit, but this still looks to be in good shape (use Friday's lows as a stop if getting back in). The stock featured for May 3rd and June 16th. MCRS featured as a breakout for May 2nd and again for June 22nd left behind a bull trap and looks a good counter short play.

Model portfolio: WEL added. KSWS sold.

June 23rd: The last few days of tension gave way in one whirlwind of action as the larger cap Dow and S&P dived lower. Swing traders would have had a field day as a string of prior day lows were torn away - triggering stops and further momentum selling. The tech indices emerged relatively unscathed, although both the [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] ended the day lower with the first of the three secondary indicators, the $NAA50, moving to a sell. When we have a 'sell' signal in all three of the tech secondary indicators [$NAA50, $NASI and $BPCOMPQ] it will be time to move to the sidelines (or go short). But no harm tightening the stops or taking profits. Large one day losses don't tend to signal major reversals - we are likely to see a test of last weeks highs before we can say a top is in place - but some sideways action, or a move back to the 50- and/or 200-day moving averages cannot be ruled out here. With the MACD trigger line of all the market indices over the bullish zero line we can infer today's weakness has more in common with a bullish consolidation than a major reversal.

Breakout targets: none

Breakout failures: CHAR undercut my suggested stop as a long play featured on June 21st. Still looks to be shaping a consolidation with demand at $2.50. Technicals remain favorable.

June 22nd: Message for Patrick Metcalf - check your junk mail folder for my emails. Markets continue to tighten with some very narrow trading. Volume has remained below average for the week - markets look to be waiting for something which will spark the next move. The longer markets exist in this state, the bigger the next move will be. Secondary indicators continue to rise which favors the bulls for the next move.

Breakout targets: none

Breakout failures: none

Model portfolio: ARMHY added. ROL stopped out.

June 21st: Message for Stephen June - my emails to you are getting bounced, please can you send me a valid email address. Thank you. Another quiet day for the markets. The dojis in each of the market can be used as a swing trade play, buying a 1% move above the day's highs, or selling a 1% loss in the lows. Higher volume on little net change in value ranks as a second day of churning (in three) - typically bearish, but secondary indicators remain bullish. Trader mike points to a potential bullish cup-and-handle pattern in the NASDAQ (a similar pattern can be seen in the NASDAQ 100]. If this comes to fruition then we would look to buy the NASDAQ at 2,109 and trade for a move to 2,300. Maybe Wednesday will see a move out of the doldrums.

Breakout targets: none

Breakout failures: none

June 20th: Monday promised much but delivered little. The low volume was surprising. The tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] continue to experience a drop in volatility as Bollinger bands tighten, this will have to change soon - this kind of environment is good for an option straddle to take advantage of the big swing when it comes. Secondary indicators (other than $NAA50) improved once again so bulls remain in control which would suggest a sharp upside run. Little to add other than this.

Breakout targets: none

Breakout failures: none

June 18th: A busy Friday saw some heavy volume churn in the tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100], and a potential breakout in the S&P. There looks to be some rotation from tech into the Dow and S&P as higher opens in the tech market were met with lower closes as 2,100 and 1,550 once again played as resistance in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 respectively. Looking at the secondary indicators there was strength in the $NASI and $NAA50, but the $BPCOMPQ eased off its recent advance supported by declining trend strength as measured by the ADX line (the second indicator presented on the chart). Short term tech traders should be moving stops to breakeven if you bought the bullish flag breaks. Intermediate and long term holders should keep an eye on the 20-day MAs. With the secondary indicators holding there is little reason to rush for the exits en masse, but there are pockets of weakness which could intensify if we see a lower close on Monday. The Dow had its seventh day of advancement, closing over 10,600 resistance. There is some room to maneuver to 10,900 resistance supported by strong technicals - on-balance-volume and MACD tigger line have shaped up nicely. But the Dow's lead will likely be dependent on what the S&P does following Friday's breakout. If the latter index can build on Friday's strength then it will be good for the Dow and eventually the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 too. Unlike the S&P, the Russell 2000 bounced off resistance of 648. The Russell 2000 was little affected by channel resistance as an earlier gravestone doji reversed back in favor of the bulls - but Friday's bearish inverse hammer should have more mettle given 648 has greater strength as resistance. It would take a close below 642 to confirm the bearish hammer. Should it do so it would be an interesting short play to the lower BB band at 602.

Breakout targets: none

Breakout failures: none

Model portfolio: NWD and KSWS added.

June 15th: Breakouts of the bullish flags in each of the tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] on higher volume handed the day to the bulls. The doji's are a mixed bag. At overbought slow stochastics these doji's are bearish - but given the break of resistance (i.e. the bull flags) and the continued strength of secondary indicators [$NAA50, $NASI and $BPCOMPQ] the bearish implications are weakened. However, weakness is creeping into the $NASI as marked by a small bearish divergence developing in the CCI. Keep an eye on this - the next crossover of the 3- and 5-day EMA of this indicator will be an intermediate term sell signal and will likely soon be followed by similar corssovers in the $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ. The Dow and S&P managed to creep over resistance of their recent congestions with a 'buy' signal in the MACD trigger line. On-balance-volume remains strong in the Dow which keeps things on the bull side of the court - in the S&P the same indicator nicked a breakout, just. In summary, bulls in control but secondary indicators are pointing to a weakening uptrend.

Breakout targets: none

Breakout failures: DEPO featured on June 6th cut below near term support. Watch for a retest of $3.50.

June 14th: Little change at the top - the key mover on the day was the break of resistance in the Russell 2000. The last break of resistance in March resulted in a bull trap and a 2-month decline but unless there is a close under 630 this breakout is valid. Interestingly, the semiconductor index lost support which could be a bad omen for the tech indices which remained inside their bullish flags.

Breakout targets: TALK featured for April 20th and April 28th as a breakout play and reached its price target for a 36% and 18% return respectively. Current action still looks good for a test of $12.00 (point-n-figure target of $17.00) - trail your stops at this stage.

Breakout failures: BXG didn't last a day with its new tight stop - down 1.82% as a breakout, but up 20% as a gold member pick.

June 13th: No big change in the markets. Everyone continues to look to 2,100 in the NASDAQ but the early birds might find better value buying the break of the blue hashed line resistance I have marked on the chart. A similiar resistance line (bullish flag) is found in the NASDAQ 100. Providing support to the tech markets is the semiconductor index has gainfully held a support line going back to the start of May. Further aiding the bulls are the secondary indicators [$NAA50, $NASI and $BPCOMPQ], all of which are on 'buys' and continue to rise. The Dow and S&P remain lacklustre, trapped in an ever lengthening congestion. But all is not lost here as on-balance-volume broke resistance in the Dow - a sign of accumulation. Also, it is typical for the tech indices to lead the larger caps at the start of rallies and here is no exception. The only index to remain wary about is the Russell 2000 which is up against resistance. Again, rallies are lead by small caps and should this break channel resistance of 630 it could fly, along with the rest of the market (Tuesday will be interesting for this index, futures were up slightly as of 4:30am ET). As a side note, my much suffering GIGM has managed to vault into action on a profitable year and on continued expansion into the online poker arena. It popped up on my breakout scan although it looks a little rich to be buying here.

Breakout targets: SWN jumped on drilling news, continuing its yearly advance. The stock featured for May 3rd - next target is $50.

Breakout failures: none

June 10th: No significant change in the markets following Friday's trading. Lower volume continued the vein of consolidation. Secondary indicators remained unaffected by the sideways trading. Monday is another day.

Breakout targets: none

Breakout failures: IUSA dated back to October 18th having managed gains of 28%, gapped down last week to end Friday below its stop price. AEC goes all the way back to July 13th. A number of dividend payments dropped this one back to its stop. It closed for a small profit.

Model portfolio: ADSK stop hit.

June 9th: Heavy volume reversals of yesterday losses. Short term buyers should wait for new highs/breaks of overhead resistance before commiting. The NASDAQ nudged just above short term support while the NASDAQ 100 touched, but remained below, its short term resistance. The 'sell' in the $NAA50 was reversed as the $BPCOMPQ, and $NASI continued their respective advances. Short term traders can start looking at long positions once again, but with markets at important resistance (the tech indices in particular) it may be prudent to wait for new near term highs before rejoining the market.

Breakout targets: GEMS featured on May 10th gained on heavy volume testing resistance. The stock closed for a 50% gain. The next projected target once we see a close over $3.72 is $6.50.

Breakout failures: ALXN also featured on May 10th pulled back below its stop price. Current action fits a consolidation but further downside cannot be ruled out.

June 8th: The NASDAQ followed the NASDAQ 100 in losing short term support. Secondary indicators started to show evidence of weakness. The $NAA50 turned a 'sell' signal just below an important resistance area. The remaining two indicators, the $BPCOMPQ, and $NASI, continued to advance. Short term holders should be out of their positions. Intermediate term holders may wish to lighten up on positions which cut below their 20-day moving average. Long term holders should wait for all three secondary indicators to issue 'sell' signals before taking profits. Other markets also experienced weakness. The Russell 2000 confirmed yesterday's gravestone doji and further weakness looks likely. I have marked in the fib retracements where support should be watched for; 603-610 would appear to be a key area with 3 important moving averages lurking. The Dow and S&P weakened but not to the extent of marking a breakdown.

Breakout targets: CMTL featured on March 10th reached its target for a 40% gain. Today's black candlestick looks toppish. Watch for further weakness.

Breakout failures: none

June 7th: Gains made during the day were quickly overturned into the close. The NASDAQ ended the day on a bearish inverse hammer (strengthened by overbought slow stochastics). A similar candlestick appeared in the Dow and S&P, while the NASDAQ 100 closed below its May support (a short term sell signal). The Russell 2000 neatly corrected off resistance, ending the day on a bearish gravestone doji. No index escaped the sellers wrath. If you are in for the short term, now is the time to sell. If your holding picture is measured in months, then one can continue to hold. The secondary indicators [$BPCOMPQ, $NASI, and $NAA50] continued their upward advance marking the current declines as a short term correction within an intermediate rally.

Breakout targets: FRNT featured on March 28th reached its resistance price target for a 34% gain. A move to $13.50 will trigger a double top breakout with a price target of $19.50.

Breakout failures: ANIK featured on February 25th and again on May 4th hit its stop as a weekly handle is still in the process of forming.

June 6th: Friday's losses were quietly stemmed on light volume. The 20-day moving averages of each of the indices looks best bet for support. Indeed the Dow managed such a test today and has merits on the long side. On the flip side, its (the Dow) MACD trigger line is on the verge of a 'sell' signal which may bring further consolidation (while the index remains above the averages the 'sell' signal reflects a consolidation - not a breakdown). As ever, the secondary indicators give the clearest picture. The $NASI had another solid up day and while it continues to do so the tech rally remains in play and long positions are favored. The $NASI is an excellent indicator as it provides clear, crisp signals. If you trade the QQQQs it should be not be ignored. Further support for the tech indices was provided by continued gains in the $BPCOMPQ and $NAA50.

Breakout targets: none

Breakout failures: none

Model portfolio: ALDA stopped out.

June 5th: Profit taking off a lacklustre jobs report - although support from the May rally has not been breached (yet). The NASDAQ struggled at 2,100, but Friday's selling volume came in lower than prior volume, so no distribution here. The NASDAQ 100 took a harder hit as it ducked back below 1,550 although the support band goes down to 1,540. Lighter volume again does not suggest Big Money selling. The Dow closed right on support of its recent 2-week trading range, although there was a modest pick up in volume it remained below average for the index. The S&P has limped upwards over recent days and Friday's selling simply dumped this back into price congestion. Volume was also light in this index. The clearest picture can be found in the secondary indicators. The $NASI remained firm as it added another 25 points. The $BPCOMPQ has held its recent angled ascent and Friday's selling did little to change that. The $NAA50 was the only negative on the day - as it approached prior resistance (the grey hashed line) with the +DI ADX line bouncing off resistance - looks like a short term top is in place. Opportunities to buy should avail of themselves as indices (and stocks) approach their 20-day moving averages.

Breakout targets: none

Breakout failures: none

June 2nd: More of the same as markets continued their journey upwards. The tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] are breaking their next resistance levels although the controlling semiconductor index is only beginning to run into resistance of its own - look to the latter index for leads, a break over 450 would be very bullish for the tech indices. No change in the other indices or the secondary indicators.

Breakout targets: none

Breakout failures: none

June 1st: Markets continued their upward march on improving technical strength. The NASDAQ looks the most vulnerable to a pullback with it lurking just below 2,100, but the NASDAQ 100 has managed to push past 1,550 at Wednesday's close - which could be a good omen for the broader NASDAQ. Each of the tech indices showed new 6-month highs in on-balance-volume indicating strong demand from buyers, but the lack of a test of the 20-day moving average of price leaves these markets over-valued in the short term. The Dow remained within a 9-day trading range although the break of resistance in the MACD trigger line suggests there is more upside to come here. Look for another test of March highs. The Russell 2000 is fast approaching former channel resistance - a test of its 20-day moving average would remain an attractive buy (adding on a break of channel resistance). The S&P sits some 12 points from resistance, but a breakout in on-balance-volume would set a good precedent for a similar break of 1,214 resistance. The secondary indicators have remained firm. Slow stochastics of $NASI and $BPCOMPQ continue to rise as the same indicator in the $NAA50 remains overbought. The $NASI has breached a 6-month resistance line, another tick in the 'bull' column. However, there is some concern with a (bearish) diverging ADX line (a measure of trend strength) in the $BPCOMPQ. If currently long, stay long - but run your stops close to ascending lows. If looking to buy, wait for the test of the respective 20-day MAs.

A quick look at some of the breakout plays has shown some mixed fortunes. ABRX had received amassive beating on its product recall, gapping well below protective stops, while stocks like ADEX, AFFX, GME, and GLX continue to perform strongly.

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