|
|
| Note: Not all stock links will work as some of the aforementioned stocks are removed from my public list. June 29th: Tomorrow is D-Day for the interest rate hike. It will be interesting to hear what the Fed chairman has to say, but I doubt it will change the losely bullish bias to the market (given the expectation it will have some impact). The markets regained some of their composure after yesterdays late afternoon meltdown, but the volume was below average and didn't inspire confidence in the run up to tomorrows interest rate decision. Yesterdays jump in the VXN mellowed a little today, although it closed above the critical 20 level. There were bullish piercing patterns in the tech indices, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 - but the S&P failed in its attempt to map a "rising-3-method" candlestick combination. It could morph into something more complex (but ultimately bullish) - although I wouldn't hold your breath. Amusing chart of the day goes to LXRS, the musical chairs finally stopped and the stock shed 50% of its value, not helped by a company Ooops! Having harped on about the strength of precious metals, gold, which broke past near term resistance last week, shed 2.34% to negate its prior breakout. Silver suffered its own reversal of fortune, losing 0.81%. Naturally, these loses were reflected in metal mining stocks, although the volume selling in these remained light, with most stocks ending the day on modest buying (see precious metal stock charts for bullish hammer/dojis). IMAX ended the day completing a "three black crow" candlestick combination which is bearish. Volume increased to the downside, another bad omen. AQNT followed through to the downside on increased volume. AIRN put in a short term top - look for a similar reaction tomorrow as TASR gave today. On the positive front, JDSU tested prior resistance, now support line, dating back 6-months and looks well positioned to gain here. NT continues to inch its way to success, the breakdown gap has almost closed, stock technicals remain strong. QCOM burst past resistance on strong volume - negating any short play. Can QCOM lead the next rally? FXEN did not sell off from yesterdays bearish inverse hammer off resistance, instead it put in a bullish looking doji - higher prices from here? NWRE is attempting to rally again. Some decent volume this time - but take nothing for granted with this stock. June 28th: The early handover of power in the Iraq was the first of two potential 'sell on the news' situations (the second will be the inevitable rate hike on Wednesday) as there was little 'action' associated with the change of power. Look for some similar trading on Wednesday once the rate hike is made, ie. a short rally from the 25pt basis increase, then a selloff as traders dig for the negatives (eg. not aggressive enough, Fed behind the inflation curve etc). Todays red flag for the markets was the volatility index, VXN, which rallied above 20 resistance and is now set to test 22.50 with potential to follow through to 24.00 (increasing fear). This should coinicide with market weakness - and potentially start a larger pullback, depending on how the markets fare over the next 2-4 days. The DOW/DIA suggests we could be in for a much more labored retracement to test May lows as this market lies closest to its near term reaction lows. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 indices ended the day with "bearish cloud cover" candlesticks on low volume, but are comfortably holding their respective (bullish) pennant breakouts. The S&P, after its bearish Friday, finished today on an "inverse hammer" potentially setting up a bullish "rising-3-method" candlestick combination - it needs a big rally tomorrow to confirm, further weakness will negate the play. Unfortunately, the SPY does not indicate a bullish move for tomorrow. The net effect of a bullish intermediate trend and an increase in fear (from the VXN) should be some sloppy sideways trading on declining volume. Few stocks on my public list performed well. The big winner was MAMA, gaining 15.35% on higher volume, but more importantly, breaking near term resistance. A run to $17.49 looks within range, it closed today at $13.75. There was no stock related news to spark the rally. CNTY added another 4.39% to sit just below a new 52-week high. The stock has left a bullish "three white soldiers" combination on above average volume which makes pullbacks attractive buys at this point. REDF gained 3.69% on low volume, but maintained an earlier breakout gap. It sits just shy of minor resistance at $8.72. Watch for move to $9.60 (more significant resistance). Precious metal stocks lost some of last weeks gloss. BGO reversed last weeks breakout on a bearish engulfing pattern, while silver plays, PAAS, SIL, and SSRI ended the day on bearish reversals. However, pullbacks in these stocks should be viewed as buying opportunities for the long term as Gold prices maintained last weeks breakout, and silver prices show strength based on strong technicals. Unfortunately, some of Friday's heavy volume traders lost out today. MIPS shed 3.10% on below average volume to end below Fridays close. CNXT ended today on a bearish engulfing pattern. It looks set to retest $4.00. It closed today at $4.37. VISG completed a bearish "falling-3-method" candlestick combination to move below former support of the ascending triangle. Further downside is likely. FXEN reversed off resistance, ending on a bearish inverse hammer on low volume. The stock is trading within a tight price range, so downside risk should be minimum. Another stock to flash an inverse hammer was TASR. Watch for move down to fib retracements as marked on chart. Other notable hits were; SMTS ended the day on a bearish engulfing pattern as it struggles to regain its May breakout, look for lower prices over the next few days. FNIX suffered from some low volume selling, negating its earlier bullish indications when it traded closer to $0.32, it ended today at $0.28. IDEV dived another 4.61% - closing below prior support of $6.35 to end the day at $6.21. Volume was light. IMAX failed to gain traction off Friday's spinning top - it ended the day down 3.60% to close at $5.36. AQNT gave control back to the bears - closing on a bearish engulfing pattern on higher volume. CDIS dived past support, shedding 4.82% and leaving behind a bull trap. Penny stock, GZFX, broke pennant support on higher volume. Watch for move to $0.10s. June 25th: Interesting divergence in the markets, aided by the restructuring of the Russell indices. The tech indices, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 rallied on higher volume, closing above near term resistance to break the sequence of lower highs, lower lows (if only just). On the flip side, the S&P marked its first serious distribution day since the market bottomed in early May. Look for follow through downside on Monday. Secondary indicators remain green in the S&P and NASDAQ, but should the selling spread from the S&P to the tech indices then next week could be very interesting (other than June 30th activity - which I suspect will be a damp squib). The index tracker stocks, QQQ, SPY, and DIA traded on light volume, not reflecting the heavy volume in their parent indices. A number of breakout plays listed on my public stockchart list had a positive day, but none came on stock related news. AES, rallied on huge volume to inch its way closer to resistance at $10.75, it closed today at $10.15. BCRX may have finally capitulated. Over 1.3 million shares traded hands in a stock that usually trades around 240K a day, the stock closed at $7.84, well below the highs of $11.25 reached at the start of June. CYBS inched over prior resistance of $8.20, but below its 52-week high of $9.35 on above average volume. TWW reversed its prior selling on 10m shares (daily avg 1.2m), rallying 13% to close at $0.95. MIPS traded 2.5 m shares (daily avg 344k) on little net change in price. Has the selling completed? Less successful was IRIS, shedding 4.47% to sit well below prior support of $7.70, closing at $7.27. The stock has declined from highs of $9.34 made in early June. CNTY continued to benefit from yesterdays buying, adding 11.33% on average volume to sit $0.60 away from its 52-week high, it closed today at $5.70. CNXT traded on heavy volume, maintaining its break from resistance, marking a new bull phase. VISG finished strongly in late day trading, but watch for a potential bearish "falling three methods" on Monday. JDSU reversed yesterday's bearish cloud cover on average volume, regaining its breakout. Todays trading closed the breakdown gap. Similarly, LU, ended the day on a bullish piercing pattern - negating yesterdays bearish reversal. SUNW sits on the verge of a breakout. It closed today at $4.41, the next point of resistance is $5.12. Of the member picks, AIRN traded on heavy volume to sit just shy of resistance at $5.60. Watch for a move above this price on Monday. It closed today at $5.46, its price target is $7.00. AQNT reversed yesterday's bearish engulfing pattern to end the day with a bullish 2-bar reversal pattern on higher volume. FARO followed through on yesterdays "three white soldiers" with a modest 0.82% gain on 1.2m volume (daily avg 464K). FXEN made a more impressive follow through from yesterday's breakout to close up 4.3% at $8.97 on 2.1m (daily avg 255K) volume. The next price target for the stock is $12.00. IDTI completed its retest of near term low of $11.87, closing at $13.74 with a bullish hammer on heavy volume. Watch for test and eventual break of $14.75 resistance. NWRE traded very heavily in late afternoon trading, exchanging 1.5m shares (daily avg 275K). The stock is heavily oversold, although slow stochastics broke to 2-month highs - look for break of $9 resistance. NWRE closed today at $8.38. TASR was the real gainer on the week. Moving from $24 to $42 on improved earnings forecast, and a huge short interest - forcing covering. A move above $45 set $58 as the next upside target. XYBR threatens to move past $1.75 on Monday, trading 15m (daily avg 2.9m) shares to add 4.85%. HMX featured only yesterday in the breakout plays, crashed below its stop price on higher volume, to close at $6.30. June 24th: Markets consolidated yesterdays gains, the move to new near term highs were unsustainable and all markets sold off in late afternoon trading. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 flashed inverse dojis which favor a move to retest prior resistance now support (the black hashed lines connecting January and April reaction highs). Volume was lighter than yesterday - no distribution, reflecting profit taking from weak hands who held stocks bought earlier in June, and are now looking to get out at breakeven. The S&P also consolidated on lower volume. Watch for the S&P to retest its prior support at 1,122-1,125. Tomorrow's breakout plays are COGN, HMX, and LRW. I hope to have the updated breakout page ready soon - but these are the stocks to research for tomorrow. Precious metal stocks were the story of today. Gold prices broke the last reaction high from the end of May. Look for similar price action in gold mining stocks. BGO was the first mining the stock to follow suit, moving to new near term highs on modest volume. CDE looks best positioned given is proximity to support, and is well set up for a swing trade from a tight pennant. Upside targets of $5.16 and $6.40 look within range. Note the MACD trigger line hugging the bullish divergence. GSS should break $5.00 resistance, slow stoch technicals have moved to new highs, and price has formed a tight handle - bullish. KGC sits just shy of a move over resistance, its slow stochastics have also made new near term highs, although the MACD trigger line has yer to break its triangle resistance. SIL has a similar chart to KGC, but it has managed to squeak over resistance. SSRI runs a chart very similar to BGO with very strong technicals. Price target of $17.37 looks valid at this point. MNG was a junior gold stock to benefit from the move in gold, leaping 17.76% after 6 months of steady declines. Breakout play, SMTS, looks very weak technically and has suffered from 4 days of above average selling from the last 5 days. Although it remains above my suggested stop price, it does not look like it will regain its upward momemtum anytime soon. On the contrary, CNTY, after weeks of selling, gained 6.67% on heavy volume as prices bounced off support of a rising channel. There was no news to account for the move. Of the member picks, ATML bounced off resistance on average volume. The three day rally off $5.30 lows looks set to pullback for a couple of days. The stock closed at $5.86. FARO flashed "three white soldiers" on low volume. This bullish set up should start a run to $28.27. FXEN broke out of a narrow triangle consolidation on low volume - although the break was a bearish "hanging man". IIP sold off on heavy volume, to complete a bearish "falling three methods". Look for $1 support to fail. TASR continued to gain, adding another 8.32% on higher volume. Pullbacks will be attractive buys in this stock. XYBR ended the day with a bullish doji on lighter volume - attractive buy here. PMU slow stochastic broke resistance, moving to a 3-month high. Look for price to challenge and break $0.80. The stock closed at $0.70, up 11.11% on the day. June 23rd: Brief commentary and only listed breakout play. Unfortunately, I don't have the time today for a more substantial breakout list. However, the stocks I was going to list for tomorrow were ZHNE, JILL and MATR. I am working on an update to the breakout format which will take a couple of days to implement. Finally, the markets made their move on higher volume. Tech continued to lead, it only takes a cursory glance on page 5 of my breakout list to see where the volume moves are coming from. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 sit just below near term highs, a breach of which (on a close basis) will end the lower high, lower low sequence. The S&P showed the strength it has concealed over the last 2 months as the index underwent quiet accumulation. The volatility index (VXN) continues to drop below long term support (now resistance) of 20. This excess of "greed" suggests the current (new) rally is the last before a substantial bear correction (versus the sideways mess we have seen since January) takes hold, and the volatility index can make a run to test 38 (prior support during the dark days of the bear market). Having said that, bounces off the 200-MA have previously lead to substantial rallies before the next test of the 200-MA is made. The time gap between tests of the 200-MA run between 12-18 months. The market rally was lead by the most active stocks. JDSU, LU and NT charged ahead on strong volume. CSCO and INTC posted reasonable gains. The tracker index stocks, QQQ, SPY, and DIA all broke their respective congested consolidations, but volume was not excessive which contrasted to the volume in the parent indices. Check the public list for further information on other stocks. Things will be back to normal tomorrow. June 22nd: Today was the opposite of yesterday, markets rallied on heavier volume to sit at, or just above, resistance of their respective pennants. However, time is running out for these formations - should prices move beyond the apex, then the formation fails. The NASDAQ 100 regained support and pushed above resistance of its pennant. Similarly, the NASDAQ moved above resistance of its pennant, while the S&P sits at its own resistance. The volume action was bullish in all three markets, and outshone that of yesterday's limp trading. Precious metal stocks look well placed to gain here. Strengthening technicals and a 2-3 month basing period have these stocks well placed to gain over the coming months. The increase in the deficit with a weakening dollar will fuel their rallies. Silver stocks like PAAS, SIL, and SSRI may gain the nod over gold mining plays. The majority of stocks on my list gained along with the market. Those doing so on higher volume included; CNXT gained 11.69% on news of upgraded DSL chipset, combined with strength in the tech sector. LEXR was another stock to benefit, forming a bullish engulfing pattern on higher volume. Watch for upside break in slow stochastic [39,1] resistance - marked by grey hashed line, this will start an important rally to $10.00 resistance. JDSU jumped on news of investment in SBC. Technically, the stock has a free run to $3.79. LU was another gainer, breaking from its pennant to sit at minor resistance of $3.75 with an upside target of $4.50. QCOM likely rallied on a mix of short covering and overall market strength - the test of $69 will mark the true direction of the stock. ERES just sits shy of a breakout. The stock has rallied for 7 straight days, so the odds favor a modest pullback before $25.50 is breached. IDTI may have confirmed its break and test of prior resistance (now support) from its downward channel by gaining in above average volume. PPHM may have capitulated, ending the day on a doji on modest volume - look for upside tomorrow. Similarly, SNIC ended the day on a doji with higher volume. A move from its bullish flag needs to happen soon if we are not to see a more protacted downward trend (flag consolidations should not last longer than 3 weeks). XYBR inched up on modest volume - it continues to build a nice rally - todays action completed a bullish "three white soldier" combination. Penny stock, CTKH, rallied on higher volume as the stock continues it base development. A move above $0.004 will setup a decent momemtum run. All was not joyful. VISG crashed through support of a rising triangle on above average volume - the next level of support at $8.12. Yesterday's after hours release to add 7.5 million shares (float 23.5 m) will impact the stock over the next 2-3 days. Look for some followthrough downside tomorrow. EMRG dipped below support on light volume - this will need to capitulate to shake out the weak hands and complete its 6-month base. Similarly, PETS continues to weaken on light volume - where is the love? Penny stock, GMDP, dipped below support on a selling spike - watch for follow through downside tomorrow. The breakouts claimed another 2 victims. MIMS feature on June 4th broke down from its recent consolidation to move below its stop price. SPDV suffered from the hype of its association with the recent spaceflight, selling off on heavy volume - buy the rumor, sell the news. June 21st: Late afternoon selling erased earlier low volume gains, but there was little vigor to the selling. Only the NASDAQ 100 gave a hint as to what might come as it inched below support of its 3-week pennant. The NASDAQ, and S&P will likely follow suit. A move to test 1,937, 1,425, and 1,104 in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and S&P respectively will probably give the bulls some indigestion, but neither will it be much comfort to the bears unless heavier downside volume accompanies the decline. Secondary indicators seem to confirm (tomorrows?) pennant breakdown. Overall, the market will remain in bore mode until June 30th passes. Big winners on my stockchart list were; TASR, on news of increased revenue outlook. The stock rallied past near term resistance and technicals have started to break from oversold levels. ECGI gained on advertisement award, the stock - closed at $0.57 after a 18.75% gain on the day. The nearest resistance sits at $0.75, with $1.00 the likely target for a higher volume rally. IVAN rallied on $20m farmout agreement to CITIC in China oil project. The price jumped in mid-afternoon trading but weakened into the close. The stock remains in a four month base, but showing a very bullish divergence in the MACD trigger line. Near term targets are $2.64 and $3.06. The stock closed at $2.31. On less positive news, ATRM inched below support on light volume - next support lies at $6.62 - it closed today at $7.44. SMTS closed below prior resistance and into the range of the large white candlestick that iniatated the breakout. Look for move to the lows of the big white candlestick at $12.50 - it closed today at $13.87. VISG attempted a run to $10.00 resistance, but closed today on an indecisive spinning top, preluding the after hours news release for the sale of an additional 7.5 million common shares. TWW confirmed the bearishness of last weeks low volume rally by dropping 8.33% today, finishing the day on a neutral spinning top - bears may not be done here yet. EMRG threatened support on low volume - the lack of buying is a concern after weeks of tight trading. Should this lose support, then it won't take much to drive it lower. The breakouts claimed another 2 victims with only one breakout play reaching its target. GRA touched $5.84 to give a 50% return from its June 4th appearance, but the joy was short lived as CAND, LINN hit their stops. CAND, featured on June 17th, ended today on a bullish hammer, closing at $2.68 (stop at $2.62). LINN suffered a loss of support to close at $0.56, suggesting worse is to come. The stock was featured on June 1st. June 18th: It will be interesting to see what Monday brings as all three markets put in solid upside volume days. Intermediate bullish pennants feature in the NASDAQ, S&P and NASDAQ 100. Bullish concerns include resistance as defined by the declining channel resisance lines from January + reaction highs of April. The markets are mostly holding above the former, but lie very close to the latter. In addition, quad witching will have impacted on todays volume, opinion suggests it wasn't all that rosy, but during consolidations such as we have had all year, trading volume steadily declines until bulls or bears take control. We are still waiting for this to happen. Moving into the vacation season won't help stimulate buyers (or sellers). How will widening of the account deficit impact on Monday? Anticipated downside pressure on the dollar benefitted the market in 2003, and the US dollar index sits at the crux of resistance between the 50-day and 200-day moving average. Will this pressure trigger the final leg of the markets rally? A weakening dollar will also benefit the commodities market, especially precious metal stocks which are forming bullish double bottoms. Gold and silver prices are bouncing off lows on rising technical strength. The precious metal sector will be the one to watch over the coming weeks. The volatility index (VXN) broke below support on a bearish engulfing pattern. The momemtum of its recent decline is strengthening and this is another tick in favor of a bullish move - although the step up in 'greed' will likely cause a rapid rally and sell off (compared to the measured rally of 2003). Mixed action in a number of stocks on the list. CDIS broke resistance on higher volume, but recent breakouts have run into trouble so keep stops tight if buying the upside move. CSCO ended the day on a bullish engulfing pattern on higher volume. CNXT rallied in similar fashion, marking a potential double bottom, but remains beneath the larger resistance line of the downward channel. SSPI looks an excellent swing trade play as it bounces along its 20-day SMA. TASR showed a small peak of buying interest after 6 days of lacklustre trading, the bullish implications of the white candlestick on decent volume from lows of $23.76 remain in effect. XYBR opened at support, closing higher on light volume. Slow stochastics of penny stock, DSLN, broke near term resistance and look primed to lead a similar move in price. Watch for move to close the gap to $0.40, the stock closed at $0.31. Sub-penny stock, CTKH, continued its is bounce off its double bottom, closing up another $0.001 on light volume. On the neagtive side, IMAX retreated below support of its former ascending triangle on low volume. Any breach of todays lows will be a sell - the inverse hammer is bullish, but counter breaks of the initial (failed) move can be swift. QCOM suffered a similar counter move, the failed breakout from last week reversing on higher volume. Similarly, AQNT, suffered a break of support on increased (but average) volume. Watch for test of high $9s, and a close above $10.00 on Monday. MNG traded on heavier volume to close above psychological support of $1.00, but remains below trendline resistance. PPHM lost support on heavier volume, it could start to freefall into a capitulation with next support at $1.21, it closed today at $1.36. PRTL lost support to a lesser degree on modest volume, watch for test of $4.77. Another breakout victim clipped its stop, although it ended the day on a bullish hammer. IRIS featured on May 26th, closed the breakout gap on light volume. Sharp resistance remains as defined by the down channel which should be breached by an upside day on Monday. Its technicals are weak. QMCI featured on June 15th got stopped on a low volume bullish hammer as the stock put in a low of $0.53. It closed today at $0.61. June 17th: Slight
losses in the tech indices [NASDAQ
and NASDAQ
100] on heavier volume to mark a day of distribution. A similar
impact, to a lesser degree, on the S&P
with a late afternoon rally - but a technical distribution day in
this market too, the first after a long series of low key accumulation
days. The most important aspect in the NASDAQ
is the convergence of the 20-, 50-, and 200-day smooth moving averages
(SMA), a big move is likely to occur very soon. Previous times this
situation arose in a rising market was in July 1996 (election year),
April 1997, and (ominously) July 2000 (another election year). From
a visual perspective the chart lies closest to the 1996 situation.
After days of tight trading, NT, broke its resistance level on above average volume on the release of a new wireless LAN product. CDE looks to have formed a strong double bottom. A bullish morning star confirmed by a bullish divergence in the MACD. GSS marked a breakout in its slow stochastics (bottom of chart) with "three white soldier" candlestick combination - bullish. The price of silver gapped up after a couple of weeks of tight trading. Silver stochastics made an important break of resistance and should lead to a rally to $6.25. AES continued to gain on higher volume and is just shy of psychological resistance of $10.00. The CYBS bounce looks complete - a bearish hanging man at resistance marking a short term top. IRIS retreated 4.19% on light volume and looks to be forming a descending triangle - weak technicals favor a breakdown of $7.50 support, it closed today at $8.00. TWW resumed its downtrend, failing to break the highs of the larger red candlestick (high of $1.00) - watch for test (+ break) of $0.88 and a confirmation of the bearish falling 3 method. CNTY lost an additional 2.24% on a huge bearish engulfing pattern, look for further downside, it closed today at $4.80. IMAX stepped down to support of the rising trendline of the ascending triangle. Volume was light, although heavier than prior up day volume. A break of this support line is a sell. SIRI completed a bearish "three black crow" on higher volume, look for a continuation of the downside for a test of $2.88, the stock closed today at $3.09. Watch ADNW for a potential triple bottom, there is a bullish divergence in the MACD and a bullish piercing pattern today - but there is not the volume to confirm, yet. AIRN added another 2.39% to form a bullish "three white soldier" combination - the last white candlestick is a little weak, but carried reasonable volume. A potential long play to $5.80. It closed today at $5.15. AMWS rallied on above average volume, but remains inside a consolidation zone, a break of $1.21 would be very bullish, the stock closed today at $1.18. FXEN ended the day on a bullish hammer as it continues to form a favorable base. Another two victims of my breakout plays fell today. ALDA featured on May 26th, closed at support and looks very weak. A better exit point will be a bounce to $14.50 (likely to happen over the next 1-3 days). EFJI featured on June 8th clipped its stop price, although the stock remains in a bullish flag on declining volume. All was not doom and gloom, LEG which featured on June 1st and was stopped out on June 8th, rallied hard today, gaining $2.95 to mark a new breakout. June 16th: Just to finish the sequence of big down, big up, we have a flat day on low volume! The markets maintained a holding pattern in the light of positive housing and industrial data, reigniting the inflation fear fire. On balance volume may provide the best cue as to what is to come - the S&P in particular, but also the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 showing higher highs than was apparent in March when the markets traded at higher levels (ie. there is more buying now than at the last market top). Few stocks on my public list were active to any great degree. One of the most lively was breakout play, SMTS, which broke from a bullish flag, on huge volume, on a strong earnings report. CNTY weakened as bears sold into yesterdas neutral spinning top - the stock closed down 1.8%. LEXR lost yesterdays potential bullish harami, closing down 2.09% at $7.98. AIRN followed through to the upside, gaining 5.67% on modest volume. The stock lies at resistance of $5.00, another white candlestick (ie. a further 3-5% gain tomorrow) would be very bullish and likely set up a run to $7.00. Early gains in AQNT did not stick, and the stock finished below resistance on average volume. Todays spinning top marks a short term top, so watch for break of rising solid blue trendline marked on the chart. CDIS negated its bearish flag, rallying on above average volume to sit below $30.00 resistance, it featured on Yahoo's In Play feature. FARO lost is bullish harami with a bearish engulfing pattern, losing 2.47% on light volume, upside thoughts are off the menu for now. NWRE ended a 3-day sequence on a bullish morning star, marking a potential double bottom with strong technicals to support it. SSPI completed its gap closure on light volume. The stock sits on its 20-day SMA and looks attractive at these levels. Penny stock, CTKH, is attempting a double bottom, but it still lacks the volume and $0.004 will be important resistance, but could be one for the aggressive players. GTEL stock was another penny stock to show some buying interest. GZFX looks primed for a break of $0.17 - will tomorrow be the day? One for the watch lists. On the other hand, ECGI holders will be a little more nervous as the stock shed 2.04% after a potential capitulation yesterday - further losses will bring a test of yesterdays lows of $0.44 and likely worse. PMU ended its recent reversal from $0.80 near term highs, to close at $0.60 on a bullish hammer - bounce potential here? June 15th: Today was the reverse of yesterday; big gains on modest volume. The S&P had the strongest day, closing up on decent volume. The tech indices, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 ended the day on (bearish) inverse hammers, but the NASDAQ 100 did manage to inch above resistance (re-instating its breakout, albeit weakly). The CPI data was inline with consensus, providing the positive impetus for today's rally, but until June 30th comes and goes (and interest rates are raised) there will be little change in the market. The volatility index (VXN) is the only indicator that suggests a change may be in the works, it ended the day very close to support - which is bearish for the market. A loss of 20 support would be very bullish for the market, but there is little room for big moves down, and consequently, big moves up in the market. Low VIX values mark greed, and high values mark fear. Buy during fearful times, sell during greedy times. Various stocks on my public list marked bullish reversals with haramis. But if there is no upside in such stocks tomorrow, then the effect is negated. Candlestick patterns mark short term reversals, a sequence of bullish candlesticks starts new trends. The precious metal stocks; HL, KGC, PAAS, SIL and SSRI all posted 2-day bullish reversal patterns. AES made a new move in its breakout, adding 3.23% on above average volume. Breakout candidates, HURC and HEPH look to have completed their consolidations and are ready for their next legs up. Stocks like BCRX, ATRM, CNTY, IDEV and CYBS flashed short term bullish reversal patterns (after losing their initial breakouts). Such moves will likely be short term and should be sold into until overall market conditions improve. IRIS held support on modest volume, gaining 5.4%. TWW tacked on another 4.3% on higher volume to close just shy of $1. But the big red candlestick dominates and this has the appearance of a bearish falling 3 method. CSCO continued its bullish base forming, rallying on above average volume to sit below $24.00. A move to $26.00 looks primed in this stock. Bullish haramis appeared in two of my portfolio stocks, VISG and LEXR. The former looks the stronger of the two stocks, the latter should rally to $9s but rollover after that. JDSU and NT maintained their tight trading, sitting above their respective 20-day SMA and prior resistance. A strong move in the overall market will set these free. AIRN attempted a 2-bar bullish reversal pattern on below average volume - should be good for a rally back to $5.00, it closed today at $4.76. AQNT sits below resistance and has formed a very strong base - watch for upside break of $11.10. FARO followed yesterdays "three black crow"s with a bullish harami. Watch upside volume, a rally off todays close at $24.27 should break $28.27 near term resistance - anything less would keep the "three black crows" the dominant (bearish) force. IIP and ECGI capitulated on higher volume and should be good for rallies to resistance. The May 27th pick, CNTY, touched its stop price of $4.84 (for a low of $4.83 on the day), the stock rallied to close at $5.00 on heavy volume, so there is still some hope for the bulls - but any weakness tomorrow will lead to a loss of $4.83. June 14th: Todays trading summed up the lack of buying interest in all markets. In the absence of buyers markets will drift down (as opposed to move sideways), but large losses on low volume suggest little in the way of active selling either (compared to April declines which were very 'bear' driven). Interest rate fears continued to spook the markets, but there is no escaping the fact interest rates have to rise - and this should be viewed as a sign of strength in the economy, not a sign of market excesses. Tuesday's CPI data is expected to further pressurize market, suggesting downside action, but likely to result in a flat to slight upside day tomorrow (the doom and gloom over tomorrow's data priced in today's markets). Individually, the NASDAQ didn't come close to regaining its breakout, the S&P dipped back below support (now resistance), while the NASDAQ 100 lost its attempted breakout. The index tracker stocks were similarly affected, the QQQ, SPY, and DIA all losing their breakouts on heavier (but below average) volume. The bearish sequence of lower highs and lower lows remains in all markets and market tracker stocks (with the possible exception of the NASDAQ 100 / QQQs - although the Mar-May lows are very similar) - so best place to be now is cash. Secondary indicators have also begun their reversals - although bullish divergences [in the MACD] dating back to March remain intact in the $NAA50 and $NASI. What's this mean? There is a stronger bullish undercurrent in the markets than the sloppy price action would suggest. Caveat seller. There was little of bullish note on my public stockchart list, and the majority of breakouts over the last 2-weeks have failed, or are close to failure. The best thing to watch for in the stock technicals [MACD and slow stochastics] are bullish divergences. If prices make new near term lows, but the technicals do not, a strong price reversal is likely in the offing and continued declines should be viewed as potential buying opportunities. However, should the bullish divergence be negated (ie. technicals make new lows on continued price declines), then all bets are off until new bullish divergences form. Precious metal stocks were the first to crack in late May/early June, and there was no relief for this sector today. Some of the junior stocks, like MNG, were hit hard. CDE was the first of the mining sector stocks to move below May lows - look for similar action in the other metal stocks. ATRM continued its declines - killing off its breakout on above average volume. Losses are likely to acclerate and a move to $5.90 looks more probable at this point. BCRX added insult to injury as it dived ever further to $7.05 support, when the stock featured as a "breakout" it was trading over $10.00, it closed today at $7.50. IRIS bounced off $7.77 price support, but slow stochastics broke its near term support - which suggests price could do likewise - watch trading action around $7.77, it closed today at $7.97 (price target of $6.90). CNTY was another "breakout" play to suffer, shedding 7.24% to close at $5.00, $0.20 below price support of $5.20. Next support lies at $4.50. Volume was light. QCOM negated Thursday's breakout - closing below prior resistance on heavier volume. Further declines tomorrow would confirm a bull trap. SUNW brokedown from a bearish flag and is set for a move to retest $3.64, volume was light. AIRN made another big step down, shedding 7.14% to close at $4.55 on above average volume. At $4.55 is it right on May support - a loss of this price tomorrow sets a target of $3.41. ATML similarly suffered, shedding 3.28% on the third day of above average selling. $5.36 is its last port of call for support, it closed today at $5.61. FARO ended today with a "three black crow" sequence of candlesticks - a bearish indicator, negating a prior breakout. IIP did likewise on rising volume. This stock is in freefall, closing today at $1.11. IVAN lost support of its big white candlestick from 9 days ago, closing at $2.20, next (major) support lies at $2.00. Penny stock, ECGI begun to acclerate its declines - it shed an additional 7.69% to close at $0.48. Another penny stock, PMU, negated its June 8th breakout, reversing to break below support on light volume. $0.58 is last stand for the bulls, it closed today at $0.62. AMWS was one of the few gainers, adding 6.60% on reasonable volume. Can its bounce off $1.00 hold? A break of $1.21 would be very bullish for the stock, it closed at $1.13. SNIC marked a reversal "tweezer" candlestick - look for higher prices tomorrow. SSPI ended on a bullish harami (with doji) - the odds look good for a strong upside move soon. XYBR completed its test of support, ending the day on a bullish hammer. Look for higher prices from this tomorrow. Penny stock, GZFX, completed its test of $0.125 support and looks poised for a move above $0.17. The June 10th pick, FOTO, reversed its breakout and hit its suggested stop on above average trade. The stock closed at $0.55, $0.04 cents above a major level of support at $0.51. June 10th: Markets ended the shortened week on light volume. The only news of note today was the failure of the NASDAQ to end the week above, 2,000. The S&P attempted to regain its breakout, while the NASDAQ 100 showed reasonable form to remain above prior resistance (now support). The index tracker stocks QQQ, SPY, and DIA all maintained their earlier breakouts, trading on very light volume. There was little change from my "Daily Breakout" or public stockchart list stocks - at least the lack of casualties was a positive for my breakout plays. QCOM made a burst for freedom, ending the week on a new 52-week high on light volume. HEPH looks to have completed a small bullish flag, look for higher prices from here. HURC too has completed a positive test of support - stops can be moved to below todays lows. IRIS lost 5.83% on a very bearish candlestick, it just sits above support (and stops) and should be watched closely on Monday. IDEV may have capitulated, but current longs should look to sell on the next bounce. LEXR remains on an ever increasing downward trend on rising volume, losing support of $8.49. Longs will likely be looking at exit points on the next bounce. The bullish divergence in MACD gives hint of a turnaround soon, but it doesn't predict how far LEXR could fall before rising again. IMAX followed yesterdays breakout with a test of support on higher volume. The bearish cloud cover suggests further downside Monday, but it should close above $5.80 support. AIRN followed through to the downside on lightish volume, but looks destined to test $4.55, it closed today at $4.90. ATML succumbed to its selling pressure, closing below support at $5.80, the next leve of support for this stock is $5.36. IIP was another casualty of selling, shedding over 8% to close below $1.30 support, this could drop to into the $0.80s. Similarly, MNG is inching its way to the lower support trendline of its prolonged downtrend. Penny stock, ECGI crept ever lower, it looks set for a flush out before marking a bounce. On the other end of the scale, SNIC ended the day on a bullish hammer, look for upside back to $23.00, but it remains uncertain if it can regain its breakout. It will likely have to consolidate into a fresh handle (lasting 3-5 weeks) before we see new 52-week highs here. Penny stock CTKH ended the day with a bullish doji, and may have completed its reversal off $0.004. Bullish action was also found in XYBR, closing lower on light volume as it tests support following its breakout. Penny stock GMDP continued its tight trading, closing just at resistance. However, it needs volume for it to make a substantial move. June 9th: Bulls took a beating today as the nascent NASDAQ and S&P breakouts reversed. Only the NASDAQ 100 remains above ite breakout point. Todays selling ranked as distribution on the tech indices, but not the S&P. Apparently Greenspan's comments did matter, which doesn't explain why the decline didn't happen yesterday and not today. Federal funds futures are priced 100% for an 25 basis pt interest rate hike, and a 19% probability for a 50 basis pt move on June 30th. I can't see Greenspan rushing a 50 basis point, so I suspect when a 25 basis pt is announced it will be viewed as 'good news' and be bullish for the market. It will be important to watch for is how the MACD trigger line and slow stochastics react to the pullback in each of the market indices. The pullback will remain bullish if the following conditions are met; there is no crossover below the MACD trigger line; on-balance volume remains over the 20-day moving average; and slow stochastics remain over the mid-line (50). What will also be important is for the technicals to remain above the red-hashed lines of their former bearish divergences drawn on their respective charts. You can see these charts beneath the price chart. These technical indicators are a useful support to price, but price is always be your primary focus. As things stand now it is a time to move back to the sidelines in cash (or look for aggressive short position). The high number of failures in my "daily breakouts" is a testament of market weakness to support bullish moves. Interstingly enough, the index tracker stocks remain in slightly better shapes than their parent indices, with breakouts in the QQQ, SPY, and DIA holding, if only barely. Given the extent of the market correction, the majority of stocks ended weaker - including those which featured strongly yesterday. See June 8th commentary for links to these stocks. Precious metal stocks resumed their downtrend, with gold and silver shedding 1.66% and 2.43% respectively. Former breakouts in ATRM, CYBS, and IDEV reversed and broke near term support levels. ADNW, ATML, and AIRN are exerting downward pressure on support on heavier volume. CDIS succumbed to prior technical weakness, and lost breakout support in price on modest volume. SNIC fell in a similar fashion, but on more serious volume, and looks set to form a handle, or worse - todays move was a sell. Penny stock, ECGI looks set to rollover (again) very soon - it is just holding support at $0.53. There were a few gainers that moved in heavy volume. IMAX rallied hard on no apparent news, likely riding the potential benefits from the box office success of Harry Potter. Penny stock, GZFX gained 27% on heavy volume, building on a string of accumulation days. The stock has doubled in value over the last couple of weeks and is just shy of a new 52-week high. Of stocks listed under my "Daily breakouts" the following reached their stop targets: IDEV, from May 24th eventually fell to the downward pressure exerted over the last few days. Closing at $7.07. Pre-market news of successful Phase I trials was not enough to rescue the stock. June 8th: Markets consolidated yesterdays gains, although the NASDAQ did manage to pop its head over resistance, as the NASDAQ 100, and S&P did yesterday. Thankfully, Greenspan's comments did not start a spate of selling, and the hype over oil prices looks to be fading as the commodity corrected sharply from its steep ascent, closing below its 50-day moving average. The trend in oil prices is now is in line along with other declining commodity prices. As noted yesterday, we need to look for new near term highs to break the lower high sequence that started back in February. The secondary indicators could be the best lead here, the $NASI is just shy of new near term highs in the MACD trigger line and slow stochastics line, the RSI has already moved to levels last seen in late January. Similar moves should be watched for in the $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ. It was a quiet day for stocks on my public list. ATRM reversed yesterdays gains to end the day with a bearish engulfing pattern on similar volume to yesterday. It moved from challenging resistance to testing support and looks more bearish than bullish at this point. ATRM company directors are investigating the possibility of selling the company. BCRX may have capitulated in the short term and is probably set for a dead-cat-bounce. Look for a bounce inside the grey retracement lines drawn on the chart. HURC declined below near term support and is likely to test $10.50 support from here. As noted below, TWW broke from its recent price congestion, ending the day at $0.90 and likely to test $0.80-$0.85 tomorrow morning. Breakdown volume was light, so this may be the result of stop triggers and not a fundamental related decline. The company release no news that could have sparked the fall. VISG gapped up, but closed weaker on the day (but above yesterdays close for a 6.29% gain) on news of the release of software upgrades. Volume was very heavy. FARO broke from a 2-week congestion, gaining 4.93% on heavy volume to follow through from its May breakout. Upside targets of $31.19 and $35.00 are within striking distance. There was no news from the company to spark the move. TASR stock rallied on heavy volume, negating yesterday's breakdown, but below more significant trendline resistance. Again, the rally came on no stock related news, perhaps benefiting from recent strength in security related issues. The index DOW tracker stock, DIA, followed similar action by the QQQ and SPY yesterday by breaking resistance. Technicals in all 3 tracker stocks look strong. Three breakout candidates failed - highlighting the precarious nature of the market, and the need to protect your capital. So far the ratio of losers to winners is 3:1! TWW, from June 1st failed to hold support, breaking down from a pennant consolidation to close at $0.90. The end-of-day price collapse was likely triggered by stops, so opportunities may avail to trade a bounce back to $1.00 (ie. buy weakness near $0.80s, sell at high $0.90s). LEG also from June 1st dropped below its stop price, although the stock appears to be forming a bullish flag and still has upside merit. BCRX is a more terminal case for longs, and best bet is to sell the next bounce to reduce the % losses from the breakout price. June 7th: Two important resistance levels were broken, one in the NASDAQ 100, the second in the S&P. The NASDAQ sits just shy of March trendline resistance, but should follow the other two indices upwards. If volume won't satisfy the bulls, then price action might have too. Watch for new near term highs in each of the markets to break the sequence of lower highs. For the NASDAQ this will be a break of 2,079 and 2,094, for the NASDAQ 100 it will be 1,508 and 1,524, and for the S&P it will be 1,146 and 1,150. The S&P looks to be the index best set to lead the next bull rally as it is closest to its 52-week high, so watch it (and S&P stocks) for leadership cues. The big point gain benefitted some stocks on my list, but the majority of gains came on meagre volume (at best), and some prior big movers barely budged at all. For such big point gains in the averages, individual stocks had a mixed day. CSCO was one of the positives, it rallied solidly all day on above average volume, adding to Friday's gains. AES closed at the upper end of its 2-week congestion following a break from $9 resistance, but volume was shy of its 60-day average. ATRM rallied to the highs of its bearish wedge on heavy volume. Watch for upside break and exhaustion run to $10-12 depending on the momemtum buying. BCRX did the opposite, following through to the downside on heavy volume. Look for test of $8.00 for a probable bounce and decline back to $7.00. CNTY tested $5.20 support and rallied to end the day on a bullish piercing pattern. Look for a test of $6.00 tomorrow. A high volume close above this level would be very bullish for the stock. CNXT made some nice inroads off its consolidation, adding 6.00% on increasing volume. A break of $5.00 would set up a nice run to $6.00. INTC broke near term resistance on light volume, supply for this stock lurks close to $29.60, it closed the day at $28.75. NT has formed a nice handle, ending the day close to near term resistance. It won't be long before the gap breakdown to $5 closes, it finished the day at $4.00. ADNW ended the day a few cents away from support at $2.59, any further downside tomorrow sets price targets of $2.35 and $1.90. AQNT added 5.29% on above average volume. The stock continues to build after breaking a 2-month consolidation. Today's high ($11.10) marks near term resistance, a break of this sets up a nice run to $12.50. PRTL has formed a nice handle around $6.00. Technicals continue to rise and a move to $8.00 looks ready to start sooner rather than later - keep on a watch list for a move over $6.35, it ended today at $6.12. XYBR closed up 9.33%, following through on a recent breakout on strong volume. It closed the day at $1.64 with upside targets of $1.85, $2.10 and $2.24. PETS was hit with profit taking, as buyers in the former $10-13 congestion range bailed out while they could. Prices are likely to ease down to $8.50 before stabilizing. TASR lost near term support on light volume, the stock is just a shadow of its former self and looks set to weaken further. Penny stock MOBL continued to suffer, but still has someway to fall before reaching support, it shed 18% to end the day at $0.144. Penny stock ABTG lost an additional 9.47% after its Friday loses. On the hand, mining penny stock PMU broke upside after a series of heavy volume trading days - is a strong bottom in place? GZFX was another penny winner, breaking from near term resistance on a 4.59% gain to close at $0.114. The breakout batting average scored a hit in ANIK, and a miss from NUTR. The latter was recommended on Friday and barely lasted a day, a 10.35% loss! ANIK was recommended on May 24th and reached its target for a 20.06% gain. June 4th : Three positives influenced the market; INTC outlook, improved jobs data, and falling oil prices, but not one was good enough to influence institutions or mutual fund managers. Volume was at the low end of recent trading, and early optimism soon gave way to afternoon selling (albeit on low volume). The tech indices finished on bearish candlesticks [a nasty black candlestick in the NASDAQ 100, and a gravestone doji in the NASDAQ], while the S&P mapped a more traditional gain, but on very light volume. Downside remains the guidance for early next week. Precious metal stocks benefited most today. GSS followed through on its doji, gaining 5% and completing a bullish morning star. Indeed, many of the gold stocks had a strong day; BGO negated yesterdays breakdown with a large bullish engulfing pattern, and HL and CDE flashed bullish inverse hammers. Volume was light in all cases, so they are not strong bullish signals. CSCO continued to experience supply issues over $23.00, todays heavy volume was insufficient to force a close over this price, ending the day at $22.78. The morning breakout gap is likely to close on Monday. Stocks that suffered included CNTY, which negated yesterday's fresh breakout and closed 10 cents above new near term support of $5.50 (the next level of support is $5.20, with major support at $5.00). For those that bought this breakout, stop positioning should depend on your time schedule. Short term traders would sell on a loss of $5.50 (or be out already), while long term holds could maintain the existing stop at $4.84 given that a pullback here is likely "noise" to shake out the weak hands and $5.00 support is of consderably greater importance than $5.50 or $5.20. The higher volume selling is a concern, and another day like today would be a cue to exit all positions. QCOM experienced supply issues as it threatened resistance at $69.00, closing lower on heavier volume. ADNW closed down 1% on heavier volume after its profitable earnings release. Minor support sits a few cents away at $2.75, with more significant near term support at $2.59. FXEN bounced off $7.75 to end the day on a neutral doji on average volume. If buyers open strong on Monday morning it could have a decent day. CMGI along with IDTI attempted to breakout again, but there was little volume to back up their moves. IVAN traded in a very narrow range on low volume, Monday will be the day of reckoning and an excellent swing trade play, were the last few days a pullback, or simply a blimp in a downtrend? MNG ended the day on a bullish hammer on higher volume, this mining stock has endured a lengthy downtrend, is it ready to reverse? PETS erratic form continued as the stock gapped up, but reversed to close the day as a bearish black inverse hammer. Volume again soared through the roof - will Monday see downside? ABTG reversed its recent breakout on higher volume, ending the day down 16.18% on no apparent news. June 3rd : Here is an ongoing score of the stocks featured in the "Daily Breakout" page. The return is based on fixed stop and target prices (it does not assume use of a trailing stop, or letting profits run on a strong momemtum play). Updated the score to include two failed breakouts from today; MIPS and VROT. Don't be afraid to cut your losers. I review stock perfomance on a regular (but not daily) basis, if I miss a stop or target price hit, please don't hesitate to contact me. As with the NASDAQ 100 yesterday, the NASDAQ and S&P followed the NASDAQ 100 down. Given the position we are in near resistance I suspect traders will look for the negatives in the job report, irrespective of the number (unless it is stellar good, or stellar bad). Watch for tests of former resistance (now support) at 1,938 in the NASDAQ, 1,425 in the NASDAQ 100, and 1,102 in the S&P. Until these prices are tested (intraday lows of 1 or 2 points above these values) we are looking at a downward bias that will likely last into early next week. Volume came slightly higher than yesterday, but well below average, and well below trading volume from earlier this year. The volatility index (VXN) is mapping a sharp (unsustainable) relief rally which will likely fade later next week - favoring upside in the market. Watch for a downturn in this secondary index (and an upturn in the markets) once a test of support is made (as outlined above). On a side note, as we approach vacation season I can't see daily volume picking up a whole bunch until we are closer to the election which will lead to scrappy trading (ie. lots of intraday volatility) I had mentioned weakness in the precious metal stocks yesterday, but there is some buying support creeping in as of today. The best candidate for a bounce looks to be GSS. However, the silver mining stocks remain weak, and some of the other gold stocks ar |
The
last convergence when the 200-SMA was the higher moving average
was July 2002. In the