Home | Stock Picks [$] | Trading Jobs | Links | Sample Newsletter | Blog

User id: member email. Password: gold

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 31st: For the first time since the decline from June through early July there was a registered distribution day for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. However, the distribution day couldn't overshadow the larger consolidations (pennants and rectangular) at play in the indices. Most of yesterday's gains were erased, but Tuesday's efforts held. An interesting struggle is developing between bulls and bears.

Stepping back from the consolidations one only has to look at the direction and position of the 50-day and 200-day MAs to know the market is in bear mode. The short term picture has picked up in bulls favor, but there is plenty of supply to absorb the demand. Only the Russell 2000 lurks at its 50-day MA.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: One from yesterday, ABMD, hit its stop for a 2% gain and a 8% loss on two Subscriber plays. DGP hit its stop to close the July 11th Subscriber pick for a 7% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 29th: Huge gains registered yet another accumulation day for the indices. The drop in oil price and higher consumer confidence helped fuel the rally. Since the July bottom there hasn't been a single distribution day in the market; on the flip side, the NASDAQ has had six accumulation days, the NASDAQ 100 five, the Dow and S&P four accumulation days each. The 20-day MAs which were breached yesterday were regained today.

The other significant shift was the creation of a potential bear trap in the semiconductor index. Watch for a follow through move past declining resistance - this would be very bullish for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] weakened to the extent the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) undercut its 5-day EMA as the MACD trigger line continued to shape resistance at its declining bearish divegence line.

Bulls are back baby!

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 28th: Further losses on lighter volume as the retest of July lows continues. Financials held the limelight as markets suffered broad declines. Nothing to suggest July lows can't hold, with plenty of room to maneuver down to these levels. The worst hit om the day was the semiconductor index; although it didn't suffer the largest decline it did confirm a breach of January-March lows. How this impacts on the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 will be key. In the short term, the 20-day MAs for the NASDAQ, Dow and NASDAQ 100 all gave way on the selling, so the short term picture is bearish. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 may find support at last Tuesday's lows - so all is not lost here either.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] had not updated at time of writing. If they did not fall they likely didn't rise much. Keep an eye on the MACD of the Percentage of stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R), the trigger line is fast approaching bearish divergence resistance from April-May. If this holds it will likely signal an intermediate down phase for the NASDAQ which would take out July lows.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 26th: A neutral day for the markets as the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, semiconductor index, and S&P all had inside days. The Dow came close to one but just missed out. Of general action the semiconductor index was the one to watch for Friday and it did manage to hold on to March lows - just. But it did so as the MACD trigger line turned 'bearish'. A nascent bullish divergence in the CCI also broke. The 20-day MAs held as support for the NASDAQ, Dow and NASDAQ 100. The Russell 2000 is well above its 20-day MA, while the S&P closed just below the moving average. The overall action of the various indices fits with a retest of July lows.

Breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] climbed, bringing the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) and Summation Index ($NASI) into neutral territory. While keeping the Bullish Percents in bull market oversold territory ($BPCOMPQ), but off its lows.

I have maintained a bullish outlook for the S&P over the next 30 days as per the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll.

Target hit: ZYNX zipped to its target price and beyond. The July 7th Free pick closed for a 70% gain.

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 24th: No surprise to see the markets down after bounding off their lows last week. Plenty of areas for demand below and given the lighter volume there was no real conviction to Thursday's selling. The biggest loss on the day came with the semiconductor index; it sits right on the cusp of March support. Any further loss will rank as a breakdown and will apply severe downward pressure to the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. In addition, bearish engulfing patterns for the NASDAQ, Russell 2000, and Dow at overbought short term stochastics [14,3] suggest lower prices ahead. The same bearish engulfing patterns played for the S&P and NASDAQ 100 - but neither occurred at the overbought conditions of the other indices. As a final note, the S&P dropped below key 1,272 support.

Of the breadth indicators, technicals of the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) turned net positive, following the lead of the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R). This is bullish for the intermediate term (3 weeks to 6 months out).

Today's losses look to be the retest of the lows after last weeks' gains. Based on short term technicals further declines are likely across the board. For the long term health of this nascent rally it will be important for the semiconductor index to hold March lows; if it can do this then the outlook will be much brighter. If it can't it will put pressure on the Russell 2000 to lead the markets higher.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 23rd: Bulls keep the pressure on, helping push the indices away from resistance while creating areas of demand below. Volume again registered as an accumulation day for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, with the S&P also posting an accumulation day. Short term stochastics are overbought for the NASDAQ, Dow, Russell 2000, and S&P - so some easing, or sideways action should not just be expected, but welcomed. There was a net bullish turn of technicals for the Russell 2000, confirming its status as market leader.

Similarly there was a net bullish turn for technicals of the percentage of Nasdaq stocks above their 50-day MA ($NAA50R), although other breadth indicators hadn't updated at the time of writing. What had been the weakest breadth indicator is now the strongest.

Little more to add, but shorts must be in doubt of the validity of entry until the 50-day MAs are hit. This can only be good news for bulls.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 22nd: A weak open after a string of poor results gave way to respectable gains by the close of business. The NASDAQ enjoyed a strong accumulation day as it pulled away from support in a healthy back test. The NASDAQ 100 posted a similar day, but is dramatically underperforming the Russell 2000. The Russell 2000 soared to its 50-day MA and is leading the indices in a manner typical of bull markets. In contrast, the semiconductor index went the other direction as it challenged last week's lows. Unfortunately, the contrast between the semiconductor index and Russell 2000 could end up neutralizing each other. The Dow broke from resistance on higher volume, setting up a move to the 50-day MA. The S&P cleared 1,272 resistance and also has its 50-day MA in range. Both large cap indices are performing well without pushing themselves too hard.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] also hold to bullish form, building up last week's bottom. There is upcoming resistance for breadth indicators. The Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) are fast approaching former support - now resistance - of January/March. The Summation Index ($NASI) saw a MACD trigger and CCI 'buy' signals.

Going forward one will want to see continued leadership from Russell 2000. However, if the semiconductor index gives up January-March lows then look to the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 to follow suit.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 21st: Very light volume as indices took a breather from a hectic week of heavier volume trading. There was no change technically from last week. Resistance remained intact for the Dow, but breakouts for the S&P, semiconductor index, Russell 2000, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] all kept their bullish stance. Little else to add. Perhaps vacation trading will create the sideways action which will help firm this market bottom.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 18th: The birth of my daughter kept things quiet on watching the market - even if the market itself has been anything but quiet! The good news is that bulls have their bottom to and the importance of January lows played out for the NASDAQ, semiconductor index, and Russell 2000. There was however a bearish shift in the relative strength between markets with large caps leaping over tech, but leaving small caps in front {Small caps > Large caps > Tech}; this can be considered a more bearish alignment for stocks. What bulls need to watch for next is the back test of these new lows. For the NASDAQ, semiconductor index, and Russell 2000 defining such lows are easy because of the historical significance of these levels. The Dow and S&P are in more trouble because January lows were breached and these ex-support levels are now positioned as future supply; this was particularly evident on Friday for the S&P as it stalled shy of a 1,272 resistance test. The NASDAQ 100 went the other way as it built support at the April breakout gap - still leaving January lows as a future support level if need be. Look for increased leadership from this index making the QQQQs a good bet going forward.

Although market relative strength favors small caps (Russell 2000) - which is bullish, the daily charts are showing some promising action for the tech-specific NASDAQ 100. With January lows confirmed as support there is every reason to suggest a tradable rally is at hand. Further support comes in the bullish crosses in the 5-day EMAs of the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ], although I can't help feel disappointed with the lack of confirmation in volatility (no spike in the mid-30s) or blow-off top in oil (so far it looks a picture perfect uptrend).

Because of the improvement in the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] and resistance breakouts in the indices I have switched bullish for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: Over the past week the following plays were stopped out. Subscriber pick AREX fell for a 14% loss. BBL disappointed after promising early gains. The April pick closed for a 7% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 14th: The morning gap created by the proposed bailout of Freddie and Fannie has all the makings of a fade play. The fact the markets closed near the lows of the day will provide cold comfort for bulls. It does look like the market needs a blow out top in oil and/or a volatility spike to complete the bottom. Ironically, it feels like a contrarian contrarian position is needed; markets are heavily oversold so a bottom is expected, but until hands are thrown into the air in despair this market will continue to get more oversold.

There were a number of bearish candlestick patterns, but they are weakened by their presence at oversold (not overbought conditions). The NASDAQ had a sizable bearish engulfing pattern on light volume (more neutral than bearish). The same pattern played out for the NASDAQ 100, but the lighter volume was enough to switch on-balance-volume back negative. The mild breakout in the Russell 2000, but there was no follow through - only a backtest of former resistance which held as support.

Of the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] the Summation index ($NASI) made a new 52-week low and doesn't look like it has reached its bottom yet.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 12th: Another interesting day. Huge volume selling in the S&P (with higher volume for the other indices) had this on course to be a firm distribution day. But then markets rallied strong after lunch, only to give up part of those gains into the close. Better news for bulls was the return of the bullish alignment of markets with small cap leadership {Small caps > Tech > Large caps}. Small caps (Russell 2000) were interesting as they were the only index to close higher. The gains weren't enough to erase Wednesday's losses, leaving the days' highs as supply for any continuation of this rally.

The other bullish element was the retention of April support for the NASDAQ 100. There is a potential MACD bullish 'buy' developing supported by a bullish on-balance-volume. Stochastics have remained deeply oversold for the past three weeks - but could easily remain so for another three. With speculative markets such as the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 gaining (or at least holding) ground there is the basis for an underlying rally. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] also saw some bottoming action with a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA for the Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R). Bullish Percents and Summation Index fell in line with NASDAQ weakness; the latter breadth indicator ($NASI) is deeply oversold.

Even with the subtle improvement in the markets I have kept with my bearish call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: DVA failed to get out of the gates. It registers as a 5% loss. FL drifted down to its stop after a heavier day of selling. The May 27th Subscriber pick registers as a 13% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 10th: Decent volume registered an accumulation day for the major indices. The only downside was the relatively small gains to go with them. However, the market is at least trying to find a footing. The NASDAQ maintained Friday's lows with a mild bullish piercing pattern, helped by oversold stochastics. The Dow is close to a MACD trigger 'buy' as bear trend strength increased (although core bear momentum is weakening). The NASDAQ 100 didn't record an accumulation day although it continues to act good around April support. The index remains well off March lows and if it can build some technical strength (rising on-balance-volume helps, a MACD trigger buy would do even more) it could lead the broader indices higher. The Russell 2000 remains horrid as it feels around March lows for traction. The semiconductor index was similarly lacking. The S&P is in the process of creating another bullish harami on good volume, but 1,272 resistance is significant and problematic. A MACD trigger 'buy' would help push it in the right direction.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] fell but no sign of a stabilizing a bottom yet.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 9th: The bears made a swift return after bulls came out to play on Tuesday. Although the majority of Tuesdays' gains were erased there was some solace for bulls with the weaker selling volume. Unfortunately for bulls, worst hit was the semiconductor index, a key leader for the tech averages (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100). The Russell 2000 held the most of Tuesdays' gains, but still lost heavily on the day. March lows are very much in range for the Russell 2000. The S&P had its own problem with the failure of 1,272 to hold as support after the index had regained this level following Monday's sell off. There was little else to redeem the indices.

The Kirk Report had reported how newsletter gurus are showing the fewest number of bulls since 1994, another bullish sign, but as my Zignals post today suggests, a host of bullish signs may not be enough without the capitulation of fear; volatility was again lacking - so no fear here. Maui Trader wrote a lengthy piece on the current state of the market which is worth reading. I still believe Tuesday was the start of a bottoming action with buyers willing to step in. Given there were fewer sellers today than buyers yesterday is a sign in the bulls favour. I can't believe a bottom will be in place without a spike in volatility - it seems like that is what everyone is waiting for (which contrarians will view as bullish, but I don't think it will be enough).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: NSU hit its stop at the low of the day. The June 23rd Subscriber pick closed for a 12% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 8th: Short covering accounted for much of today's buying, but higher volume registered an accumulation day for the indices. The Russell 2000 had the best of it, but probably the worst of it too since large one day gains like todays' tend to be bearish in the short term. One thing Tuesday did do for the markets were mark bottoms for a retest. If the indices moved sideways from here it would be very bullish (other than a direct rise in price of course!).

In the short term, declining resistance connecting highs from May through July is the next challenge. The Russell 2000 closed on the sharpest of these resistance lines with the NASDAQ 100 next in line to make a challenge. The NASDAQ has a little more leeway with the Dow and S&P the furthest away from a resistance break. The Dow and S&P also have to break back through Jan-March resistance which was former support. The S&P finished just above this resistance line and if it can hold it will be good news for the Dow. The semiconductor index had the quietest day, finishing with a low key hammer.

The first stage of a bottom is in place.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: FEED broke through the 200-day MA after a positive run quickly disappeared. If you didn't jump ship earlier the play registered as a 16% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 7th: The long weekend may be over but traders hadn't made their decision as to the direction to push the market. The only index to move with conviction was the Russell 2000, but this conviction was unfortunately to the downside. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 ended the day with 'spinning tops' on higher volume - although perhaps not quite a distribution day because of the half-day trading from last week. The Dow and S&P endured a similar kind of trading day to that of Tech with a weak challenge of new resistance for the S&P failing. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] moved deeper into the quagmire; while they undercut January lows?

No bottom here.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: MXF ran into its stop after extended sideways trading failed to generate a push higher The April 2nd play closed for a 7% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 3rd: A shortened trading day left little to talk about. Markets didn't go on a low volume surge, so it will be left to Monday (more likely Tuesday) before we see what traders really think of all this. What will oil be trading at then? Small caps (Russell 2000) lost almost a 1%, bringing March lows a little closer. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] continued their decline. The Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) returned to the top-end of bear market territory, falling in line with the January lows (and more or less confirming the the continued cyclical bear market). The Nasdaq Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) have the most room to maneuver (down) having just entered bear market territory, but still some 20 points above a potential bottom.

Given the shortened week I maintain my bearish 30-day call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: ATW exited at its stop price. The June 30th Subscriber pick goes down as a 6% loss. WU joined it as its initial breakout failed. The June 23rd Subscriber pick closed for a 7% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 2nd: Another whopper of a sell off, but volume was surprisingly tame. Unfortunately, light volume for a large one-day loss which is part of a larger decline does not necessarily imply seller's exhaustion but is more likely to represent seller's complacency. If there is a positive in the volume it's the upcoming long holiday weekend which could have contributed to the light trading. How willing traders will be to sit tomorrow out remains to be seen (or return late on Monday)? Large institutions look to have unloaded and it's the last of the weak hand retail sellers throwing in the towel which is responsible for the current trading. Volatility is on the rise, but is some way short of a marked bottom (but no spike is necessary to complete the bottom, although a volatility spike would be preferred).

The NASDAQ had the misfortune of losing April lows as both the semiconductor index and Russell 2000 fell sharply away from the last vestiges of 62% Fibonacci support. The two latter indices look set to fall to March lows. The S&P followed the Dow in breaking January-March support and looks set to head lower given the additional losses in the Dow. The measured move target for the Dow is 10,200; but I doubt it will get this far given the proximity of breadth indicators to oversold levels.

If oil prices start to gap up sharply with greed, expect the indices to correspondingly gap down in fear. The problem for market bulls is that oil hasn't even started such an exhaustion run.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] fell for yet another day and will very soon put in the first part of a two-pronged bottom with a bullish divergence with respect to the parent NASDAQ.

Target hit: HUSA reached its target price, but finished on a bearish doji. The June 16th subscriber pick closed for a 40% gain.

Stop hit: A few more victims of the selling. WEL took a hit in late afternoon trading to close the June 4th free pick for a 11% loss. The earlier March subscriber pick closed for a 20% gain. XIDE was another key loser. The May free pick closed for a 11% loss and the earlier March pick for a 22% gain. The February subscriber pick closed for a 42% gain. EXPO also drifted into its stop; the February subscriber pick closed for a 4% loss after falling just short of its target price.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJuly 1st: Bulls put in a solid day's work with significant volume gains. The indices all registered an accumulation day with some enjoying more potent bullish signals than others. The NASDAQ 100 perhaps had the best of it with a bullish engulfing pattern, closely followed by the bullish piercing pattern in the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ found support at April lows while the NASDAQ 100 never quite made it as far. The Dow and S&P had the best of the volume, with each closing on bullish hammers. The S&P had the clearest measure of support at January and March lows; it is perhaps the easiest long signal if it clears the 3-day high. There was a bullish hammer in the Russell 2000 as it held the 62% Fibonacci retracement. The only (slight) disappointment was the bullish hammer in the semiconductor index which didn't quite make it back to the 62% retracement.

Upside targets remain the 20-day MAs until proven otherwise.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] lost out, but still no strong sign for a bottom.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: MSPDD reversed split and crashed hard. The June 9th free pick goes down as a 13% loss. CDNS has meandered in a tight pattern for months without going anywhere. Today it finally dropped to its stop for an 8% loss.

Stockchart public list - please remember to vote!

Back to top

Disclaimer

The information found on the Fallond Stock Picks Inc. website (www.fallondpicks.com) has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any information in this site without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by Fallond Stock Picks Inc. or any of its employees, Fallond Stock Picks Inc. makes no representations or warranties or takes any responsibility as to the accuracy of completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. accepts no liability to the recipient whatsoever whether in contract, in tort, for negligence, or otherwise for any direct or consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use of the information provided on this website, or of the recipient relying on any such recommendation or information (except insofar as any statutory liability cannot be excluded). Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice. Fallond Stock Picks Inc., or their respective affiliates or their officers, directors, analysts, or employees may have positions in securities referred to herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities mentioned herein. This document does not purport to be a complete description of the securities market or developments to which reference is made. There may be instances when fundamental, technical, and quantitative opinions may not be in concert. There are risks inherent in all investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain persons. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange, rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. and their affiliates make no representation that the companies which issue securities which are the subject of their research reports are subject to, or in compliance with certain informational reporting requirements imposed by the Securities Exchange act of 1934. Sales of securities or services covered in any report or on the web site may be made in only those jurisdictions where such securities or services and Fallond Stock Picks Inc. are qualified for solicitation. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. does not warrant, represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information, content, advertisements, or Third Party Sites and Content (as defined below) (collectively, the "Materials") contained on, distributed through, or linked, downloaded or accessed from Fallondpicks.com, nor the quality of any products, information, or other materials displayed, purchased, or obtained by you as a result of an advertisement or any other information or offer on or in connection with Fallond Stock Picks Inc. You acknowledge that any use of or reliance upon any Materials shall be at your sole risk. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. reserves the right, in its sole discretion and without any obligation, to make modifications to any portion of the Fallondpicks.com web site or publications at any time. You acknowledge and agree that you bear responsibility for your own investment research and investment decisions, and that Fallond Stock Picks Inc. shall not be held liable by you or any others for any decision made or action taken by you or others based upon reliance on or use of information or materials obtained or accessed through use of Fallondpicks.com. Prior to any transaction in securities, you should consult with a qualified professional securities or financial advisor.

Copyright 2004-2008 Fallondpicks.com