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Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 31st: Just wanted to get at least one post in for this week. Again, things should return to some normalcy next week. The markets attempt at the 'dead cat bounce' fell flat, leaving the indices aimed square and center at their respective 200-day MAs. The only index where this is not the case is the Russell 2000, which is floundering some distance away from this key moving average. March lows are the next likely support level for this index, but before prices get there it may necessary to tag the 200-day MA first (in a brief rally). The Russell 2000 has been by far the weakest index and this underperformance is likely to continue for the rest of 2007. The S&P is the index to watch as it approaches its 200-day MA. The index closed only 6 points away, providing a relatively low risk buying opportunity which could see a 200-day MA test in early morning trading. How this index handles this test will say much about the 200-day MA as a support level for the Dow and to a lesser extent the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ too. The latter indices still have plenty of room to run down before they reach their 200-day MAs and with semiconductors lurking around their 50-day MA, a bounce is likely to happen sooner rather than later for these indices.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] have weakened to a level which would suggest a good intermediate bottom, although further weakness would be needed to mark this as a major bottom. The internals of the S&P point more towards a major bottom - another reason to take a look at index components or the SPY.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: Another round of catch up exits. These have occurred either today, yesterday, or Friday. BRL was a Breakout play for July 24th. The breakout failed to hold longer than the day and closed for a 7% loss. DV made two attempts to break, but the second failed on heavier volume - moving back into the void of May gap support. The June 14th Subscriber pick closed for an 8% loss. NCTY was a Subscriber pick for April 10th, June 22nd and July 13th. The perhaps over zealous stop on the July play caused the positions to be exited for a 17% gain, 7% gain, and a 4% loss. SAY was a Subscriber pick for July 23rd - but it went the way of the Dodo for an 8% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 26th: Quite the roller coaster. Big big losses and then a half decent recovery on huge volume - not the typical July day. The day was split into the haves and have nots. The NASDAQ and to a lesser extent the NASDAQ 100, were able to find support (the former at a rising channel line) or test support (the latter - at the 50-day MA), and were helped in large part by the positive test of support in semiconductors. Meanwhile other indices, like the Russell 2000, sliced clean through their support - in this case the 200-day MA, but the Dow gave up rising support connecting March-June lows, while the S&P simply added to its current weakness. Small and large caps are in trouble, especially with respect to relative strength to the tech averages. The selling made an a serious downward impact on Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] although all were already bearish prior to today. The good news for people who have sat on the sidelines waiting to enter is that this drop has the makings of a nice bottom. I think there will be a dead cat bounce before today's lows are retested. The market may/or may not make new lows from the retest but I am betting the second wave of selling will bring the market to a bottom. With the traditional vacation period coming up it will probably be another couple of months before such a bottom is in place.

Target hit: WWE

Stop hit: I have two days of catch up to do. For simplicities sake I will just list the stocks whose stops were hit. I keep track of all exits (and actives) on my spreadsheet. Given the size and bandwidth needs of this file it is only available to members but it has all my data going back to 2004 for those who like to play around with data. Exits for today and yesterday include: ALTI, ACO, CHU, CYD, DSTI, DNB, IVAN, NTLS, RAVN, SAFM, TRA, TWI, ASTI, BLK, VTO, FRG, GCT, RDEN, GLDN, GSOL, OMRI, HYTM, LCAV, and MGA.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 24th: The start of another correction? The question is whether it will be something like March's (short and sweet) or something more protracted - as happened in May-July 2006. Given vacation season is coming up a scrappy correction is more probable than a sharp drop. The correction of 2005 is a more likely prospect given it started during the summer when the NASDAQ gave up some 10% from its highs and was able to find support at the 40-week MA, now currently at 2,496. The only spanner in the works could come from the Russell 2000 which also found support at the 40-week MA in 2005, but finds itself now testing this important support level. The Russell 2000 suffered a heavy blow, cleanly slicing through rising support and lingering a few points above its 200-day MA. The S&P had its own troubles as it gave up rising support connecting March-June lows - something which the Dow didn't do. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] all took a sharp dive south to leave all supporting technicals, for each market internal, in the red. The Nasdaq Bullish Percent ($BPCOMPQ) undercut March lows and the Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) is close to doing the same. For subscribers to my Collective2 portfolio I had a position exited to reduced the equity exposure from 38% to 30% with the remainder in cash. The good news is I expect this correction could be the one to shape a nice bottom at which to increase ones equity exposure into the 80% area. As for the here-and-now, Bill aka No DooDahs keeps good tabs on short term conditions. The Russell 2000 is again the low risk favorite after today's buy at support was quickly blown away. If it made it back to the 200-day/40-week MA on Wednesday it would be a good buy.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: Plenty of sell side action. PQ was a breakout for May 4th and May 25th. The former play closed for an 8% gain, the latter for a 4% loss. SMSI was a Breakout for July 11th but it was hit hard on the day and closed for an 8% loss. VII was a Breakout which failed to last a day - the July 24th play closed for an 13% loss. The earlier July 12th Subscriber pick closed for a more modest 1% loss. WSII spent the last 3 days in an acceleration of a decline, undercutting its 50-day MA. The June 25th Breakout play closed for a 6% loss. An earlier April 18th Subscriber pick finished with a 10% gain. DWSN was a Subscriber pick for June 20th but a period of sideways action turned into bearish weakness to knock the position out for an 8% loss. GMKT was a Subscriber pick for July 18th but the break of resistance failed, resulting in a stop hit for an 11% loss. SMP was a Subscriber pick for July 3rd but seven days of losses saw a quick sweep to the stop price for a 10% loss. VCLK did something similar to close the July 18th Subscriber pick for a 6% loss. ODFL suffered a third day of losses to hit its April 18th stop for an 8% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 23rd: A day on which the status quo was maintained on low volume. As August approaches and the vacation season kicks into high gear the markets are unlikely to experience too many high volume days. With the exception of the Russell 2000, the indices have all enjoyed steady gains from March lows, but in effect have been rallying since the summer of 2006. The Russell 2000 still looks to have the best short term buying opportunity but it's a scrappy call. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] saw some additional weakness with MACD trigger 'sell's in the Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index ($BPCOMPQ) and Nasdaq Percent of Stocks above 50-day Moving Average ($NAA50R). Bearish divergences remain dominant for all three market internals.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: DMND was a Subscriber pick for March 9th and featured as a Breakout for June 25th. The latter closed for a 5% loss, the former for a 3% gain. ESST was a Subscriber pick for June 22nd and again for July 2nd as a free Breakout play. The Subscriber pick closed for a 5% gain and the Breakout play for a 4% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 22nd: Options expiration skewed the volume to mark potential distribution in the NASDAQ, Dow, NASDAQ 100 and S&P. The losses looked heavy on paper but no major support level was violated by Friday's close. The Russell 2000 suffered most but closed the day nearest support as defined by May - June lows. Technical weakness accelerated to the downside as small caps seriously under-perform against Tech stocks (and large caps to a lesser degree) {Tech > Large caps > Small caps}. In fact, Tech averages are well head of both large and small caps, helped in large part by strength in the semiconductors. Semiconductors did get hit with a large bearish engulfing pattern but there is plenty of room to run to support at 513 and the 20-day MA. Because of the breakout I have remained bullish for the S&P over the next 30 days as recorded by the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] returned to their bearish ways after the brief bullish cross of the 5-day EMA in the Nasdaq Percent of Stocks above their 50-day MA ($NAA50R) reversed. The Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) looks to have confirmed a back test of resistance after the late June break of the triangle - bearish.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 19th: Early gains churned into the close as the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 made (yet another) attempt at a bearish 'shooting star'. In their favor was the solid consolidation day in the semiconductors which suggests the 'shooting star' may yet turn into another gap created during the course of the rally. The S&P and Dow closed higher in a manner similar to a bullish consolidation with Wednesday's lows a good place to run a protective stop if looking to take advantage in the short term. It was no surprise to see the Russell 2000 struggle below resistance once again. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] attempted to swing back towards the bulls as the $NAA50R crossed above its 5-day EMA, but remained below the bearish divergence.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 18th: A large sweep for the day as weakness in semiconductors, combined with Fed Ben testimony to Congress, worked to push markets down before bulls were able to pull their pants up by the close of business. The day registered as a bearish distribution one for many indices with the exception of the NASDAQ. There was an increase in bearish weakness with indices seen bearish strength overtake bullish strength [-DI > +DI; Russell 2000 and S&P] and on-balance-volume favoring more towards distribution [S&P]. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] gave up on their three days of bullishness as the $BPCOMPQ and $NASI reverted back below their 5-day EMAs. The semiconductor index has its work cut out to keep the rallies afloat as large caps [Dow and S&P] head towards taking a breather. Tests of the 20-day / 50-day MA should see buying opportunities for these averages, but Bill aka NooDooDahs has been successfully using the 2-day RSI as a measure for long side opportunities. His blog details this strategy with regular daily posts. As of Wednesday's close many of the indices have neutral 2-day RSIs, but the Russell 2000 might be closest to a short term 'buy' given it dropped into oversold territory (2-day RSI = 23.22).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: CYNO hit a spate of weakness in early afternoon trading to knock out its June 4th and July 9th Breakout plays for a 2% gain and a 5% loss. GIGM clipped its stop after falling back inside declining resistance. The July 13th Subscriber pick closed for a 6% loss. SOEN had its sixth consecutive day of losses to close the July 10th Subscriber position for a 9% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 17th: More light gains for the indices with the exception of the semiconductor index which powered ahead and is challenging 2006 highs of 559 (although 550 is a thicker band of resistance). The index is well placed to push to and beyond the mid-year 2001 highs at which the NASDAQ are toiling with now - this would put the semiconductor index up around 700, not to mention the benefits it would have for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. The spoil sport for the party remains the Russell 2000. Small caps spent another day below 856 but didn't lose any more ground.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: PMU suffered its third day of losses to roll back into its July 13th stop price for a 9% loss. The earlier June 21st Breakout closed for a 6% gain. JADE failed for a second time after a substantial gap down. The July 9th Subscriber pick closed for a 9% loss. OMNI was a Subscriber pick for June 5th. A break of the 50-day MA closed the play for a 14% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 16th: A consolidation day for the indices following last week's gains on lighter volume. The NASDAQ edged a distribution day and was the only index to post selling volume above that of Friday - but the selling was inconsequential given the light 0.4% loss for the index. The Russell 2000 was perhaps the most disappointing index given it failed to follow the other indices higher and remains caught under 856 resistance. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] closed lower but did not change their net bullishness triggered Friday.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: Two plays for Monday didn't last 24 hours: IGLD gapped below support and into its stop to kill the play for a 7% loss. THK was another Susbcriber pick to meet the same fate. It closed for a 12% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 15th: Friday saw markets able to maintain all of Thursday's gain and then some. Only the Russell 2000 disappointed in that it was unable to make a breakout of its own. The semiconductor index was particularly impressive last week and this spells good news for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 over the coming weeks and months. When the next sizable correction occurs look for tech stocks to lead the rally out. Large caps [Dow and S&P] got a much needed shot in the arm Thursday, but there is evidence of money rotating out of blue chips into more speculative issues (although small caps aren't part of the fun). However, the break in large caps was enough to reinstate the bull to the extent I am bullish for the S&P over the next 30 days as per the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are all technically 'bullish', although the point of advancement for each remain closer to overbought than oversold conditions. Markets could see another 2-3 months of advancement with breaks of support connecting March / June lows a good place for a trailing stop.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: NRMX bit the dust after trading in a sideways pattern from its June 26th Subscriber feature. It closed for an 11% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 12th: So much for the quiet summer! It was all go for the indices with one of the strongest days in a number of years (my real time Trade Ideas scan was hopping). Volume climbed substantially, in particular for large caps [Dow and S&P], which cleared a months worth of declining highs to reinstate the rally and bring about a redrawing of support. Tech averages [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] broke upper channel/'megaphone' resistance to add to their recent upward bias. Strength in the semiconductor index, which held support during Tuesday's correction, helped power the rally and added strong gains to itself (nearly 3%). The only index not to see a substantial change by the end of day was the Russell 2000 which closed below resistance after a +1.8% gain. For large caps [Dow and S&P] and small caps [Russell 2000] the 50-day MA should be considered significant support and a good place to run trailing stops on long-term positions.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] all advanced. The Nasdaq Percent of Stocks above their 50-day MA ($NAA50R) cleared its bearish divergence for a second time with the $BPCOMPQ climbing above its 5-day MA after a brief drop below the moving average.

Target hit: GPK was a Subscriber pick for June 13th and hit its target price for a 25% gain.

Stop hit: RICK was a Subscriber pick for July 6th. A large intraday spread knocked out the stop for a 5% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 11th: Bulls made a run on Tuesday's losses but came up short on volume. There were additional bullish markers which helped compensate for the lack of volume - large caps [Dow and S&P] and small caps [Russell 2000] held on to their 50-day MAs while the semiconductor index added some weight to the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 rallies by holding 510 support for a third day. But the day looked like another for the summer doldrums.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 10th: The first big sell off in almost 3 weeks knocked some of the stuffing out of recent gains. Volume climbed to register a distribution day which was well above the holiday volume of the last few days. For the NASDAQ the selling simply confirmed channel resistance, but the NASDAQ 100 saw a resistance breakout reversed. Given the semiconductor index held its 510 breakout it probably is not too bad for either NASDAQ or NASDAQ 100. The Russell 2000 looks to have lapsed into a sideways pattern contained by 856 resistance, with support around 820 - expect more dull action here. The Dow and S&P each lost their respective breakouts and brought about a redrawing of resistance. These too look destined to trade in a sideways range over the coming weeks as their 50-day MAs get tested. If this is what the market has planned for the summer it is perhaps best to take the next few months off - this could get scrappy.

For the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] it was the end of the breakout for the Nasdaq Percent of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) as it dropped below former resistance - leading to a redrawing of the prior bearish divergence.

Target hit:

Stop hit: SPTN was hit by weak retail sales. The stock dropped into its June 29th stop for a 7% loss. The two earlier picks for March 29th and June 6th close for a 14% and 5% gain respectively. LBIX was a Breakout pick for June 27th 2006 and June 6th 2007, and a Subscriber pick for May 29th. The 2006 play closed for an 11% loss, the 2007 June pick for a 13% loss, and the May Subscriber pick closed for a 19% gain. ONT was a Subscriber pick for June 14th, but three days of heavier losses closed the play for a 10% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 9th: The day ended much as a repeat of last week. Volume climbed to register an additional accumulation day, but it had the feel of the summer doldrums. The NASDAQ closed right on channel resistance as the NASDAQ 100 held its breakout. The Dow did enough to break above declining resistance defined from the end of May with the S&P a 50:50 as to whether it closed with a breakout. The real strong move came from the semiconductor index as it put some ground on its Friday break of 510. The tech indices (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) are building a real head of steam with substantial gains over large caps - a sign of rotation from safety to more speculative growth stocks. With the semiconductor index on a run the next 6-months could belong to Tech stocks.

Technically, there were MACD trigger buys for the Nasdaq market internals; Summation index ($NASI) and Bullish percents ($BPCOMPQ). Both are well on their way to shifting bullish for the next 3-6 months.

Target hit: BWLRF was a Subscriber pick for April 11th and July 2nd and a Breakout for June 4th; each hit their targets to close for 68%, 40%, and 26% gains. EGI was a Subscriber pick for June 29th, it closed for a 46% gain.

Stop hit: INWK was a Subscriber pick for July 3rd. It cut below support for a 4% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 8th: It should be business as usual next week as markets return to their five-day week. There was little to add on what had passed before - the only changes came with the MACD trigger 'buy' in the Dow and the break of 510 in the semiconductor index. The latter marks a significant break on the weekly chart and should provide support for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. For the NASDAQ 100 there was a continued move above broadening wedge resistance, while the NASDAQ has yet to follow suit but is well positioned to do so on Monday. I have redrawn resistance in the Russell 2000 to include the former bull trap as a new component of resistance - but 856 is itself an additional supply point. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] benefited from the rise above resistance for the Nasdaq Percentage of Stocks above their 50-day MA ($NAA50R) as a short term bottom develops in these internals (all three are above their 5-day EMAs after a period of declines).

With the S&P up against 5-week resistance I have opted for a bearish call on the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll, although a break of this resistance would likely leave in place a larger double bottom (1,487 and 1,484) similar to that from March.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 5th: A mid-week Independence Day has confused things somewhat since it looks like traders have taken the whole week off. Thursday's buying was greater than the half-day of Tuesday but it was not exactly excessive. Markets closed higher (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) or flat (S&P and Dow) with new closing highs for both tech averages - indeed the NASDAQ 100 managed to break above rising channel resistance which should see a similar move past 2,675 for the NASDAQ. The only other point of note was a fresh MACD trigger 'buy' for the S&P. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] climbed, but didn't alter their overall picture.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: NT was a Subscriber pick for May 17th but the stock has drifted in a sideways pattern until eventually hitting its stop for a 4% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon. July 2nd: A good day for the bulls saw a fresh breakout in the NASDAQ 100, a bounce off the 50-day MA for the Dow and more importantly, a return above the 50-day and 20-day MAs for the S&P. The only real disappointment on the day was the lack of volume. Watch the NASDAQ 100 for a follow through to the upper resistance level of the broadening pattern which should help the NASDAQ do likewise. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] were little changed.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

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