| Note:
Not all stock links will work as some of the aforementioned stocks
are removed from my public list.
July 30th:
Markets continued up in limp trading. Although closing higher on
the week, the markets did not provide evidence for a lasting bottom.
The small real bodies and upper "shadow" (ie. supply)
in the NASDAQ
and NASDAQ
100, the latter in particular, denote weakness. The Dow
continues to bump against its 10,150 ceiling, while the Russell
2000 and S&P
ended the day on relatively tight trading. The Sox
did manage to inch over yesterday's levels, but the hesitancy in
the markets will likely be reflected in lower prices next week.
A strong bottom should see a firm rally, followed by some light
trading back to the lows, what we are seeing now is a weak rally
with no volume follow through.
I am updating the stockchart
list, so there is no commentary on featured stocks, this will be
back next week once the list is complete. Similarly, the stock
scan will be reviewed early next week.
July 29th:
Markets rallied higher on lighter volume, but the rate of ascent
off the week's lows does not inspire confidence for their continued
success. The combination of falling
oil prices and a rising Sox
index gave the markets a boost. The Sox
looks best positioned to continue the nascent tech rally, although
the Dow
looks vulnerable to a correction back to its lows - the upper shadow
candles denote supply in the rally. Small real body candles of the
NASDAQ
and NASDAQ
100 support the idea for a weakening rally. Only the Russell
2000 had a strong day, but it sits a long way from its July
highs. However, secondary indices do suggest good times are on the
way. The $NAA50
indicator has retained bullish divergences in MACD, RSI, and slow
stochastics dating back to March 2004. The $NASI
indicator is mapping a potential reversal head-and-shoulder reversal,
July lows do not look like they will undercut May lows - an important
bullish divergence.
Featured stocks remained quiet,
although some of the larger caps had a strong day. JDSU
gained over 15% on huge volume after releasing earnings.
INTC
followed its recent pennant breakout by closing inside a prior breakdown
gap on higher volume. This should trigger a rapid rally to $26.On
the contrary, NT,
closed at resistance, the last 2-days have the look of a relief
rally, look for a correction back to $3.30. WLDA
reversed its recent decline on modest volume, but the move has the
look of a relief bounce. Breakout
candidate, NOOF,
collapsed - hitting its stop on the way down, the company releases
earnings on August 5th. The relief rally in AIRN
looks complete - note todays spinning top below resistance. AES
ended the day on a black candlestick within a larger bear flag -
look for lower prices. ERES
looks to be forming its own bearish flag. OMNI
continued to plunge, although OPSW
and SNIC
are shapping bottoms. PKTR
is undergoing a relief bounce, but remains below resistance defined
by the breakdown gap. TASR
did not form an evening star, but todays bearish engulfing pattern
still favors weakness (and short positions). Penny stock, MOBL,
may be forming a very steep bear flag - a break down could cause
a large one day loss on panic selling.
Further negative action in
the breakout candidates. NOOF
which featured on June 2nd,
hit its stop on a major price decline on higher volume. HDI
featured on July 15th, hit
its stop on light trading. NCR
featured on July 13th collapsed
on disappointing earnings.
On the contrary, POT,
featured on June 18th, reached
its price target - ending the day on a neutral doji at $100 psychological
resistance.
July 28th:
Higher oil
prices dominated todays trading. The late afternoon rally gives
the bulls the edge, but until we see the start of a new uptrend
this market remains vulnerable to further selling. The Dow
did gain over yesterday, but volume was lower than yesterday and
a potential bearish flag could be developing (which would mean a
retest of Monday's lows). Interestingly, the DOW tracker stock,
DIA,
rallied on higher volume and does not appear to be developing a
bearish flag. The Sox
added another bullish hammer to support, adding fuel to a tech bounce.
The NASDAQ
and NASDAQ
100 both ended the day on bullish harami crosses - a strong
bullish reversal signal. Watch tomorrow's opening hour for leads
on market direction - if by early afternoon the market is above
todays close it will be a good opportunity to go long. The Russell
2000 ended on a bullish hammer, while the S&P
ended the day on a very large doji, closing near yesterday's highs
- its tracker stock, SPY,
closed higher on stronger volume in a pattern similar to that of
the DIA's.
Precious
metal stocks posted low key gains, but it was silver
stocks which outperformed gold stocks (contrary to what I thought
yesterday). PAAS,
SSRI, and SIL
all posted gains.
It was a quiet day for stocks.
Tomorrow could see the big moves. Stocks that look set to do better
include; IMAX
closed its breakout gap, ending the day on a bullish hammer on low
volume; INTC
retained its upside pennant breakout, finishing on a bullish engulfing
pattern on average volume; JDSU
finished the day on a bullish doji, right at May support, on higher
volume; LU
held May lows as support, a bullish hammer favors upside from here.
Penny stock, FNIX,
begun a relief bounce, gaining 20% on heavier volume. There was
no news to account for todays move. Penny stock, MOBL,
regained upward momemtum, closing near resistance after yesterdays
bearish move. The company won a new
wireless contract which sparked todays 18.82% gain. Not all stocks
pointed to future bullishness. Breakout candidate, NOOF,
edged lower and is on its way to close its breakout gap from May.
Breakout candidate, VLTS
flashed a bearish engulfing pattern. Other breakout candidates,
ATAC,
SLPH,
and CMN
all appear to be forming double tops. Unlike INTC, SIRI
was unable to hold its pennant, closing on bearish cloud cover,
watch for lower open tomorrow. CYBS
bearish wedge broke to the downside, shedding 9.54%. Look for test
of $4.54 support, it closed today at $5.12. TASR's
leap looks to have finished on a potential evening star, a gap down
at the open confirms, a break of today's high negates the pattern.
Further negative action in
the breakout candidates. GIVN
which featured on July 16th
dipped below support as the rate of its decline acclerates.
July 27th:
Bulls stepped up to the plate, driving the markets up on heavier
volume. The question will be now, can it stick? The last time the
markets attempted this on July 20th the markets reversed on huge
volume the next day. It will be important to see some follow through
tomorrow (higher close on increased volume), any sniff of reversal
will likely bring a test of yesterdays lows. As of today, the NASDAQ
completed its measured move to 1,830 and should not break below
this support. The NASDAQ
100 regained triple bottom support, although yesterday lows
should be viewed as a place for stops. The Sox
did complete a test of support on today's bullish hammer (compared
to yesterday's test on a neutral spinning top). The bounce in the
Russell
2000 looked a little excessive to count as a bullish reversal,
although the Dow
finished nicely, closing on higher volume above the highs of last
Thursday, inside the body of last Wednesday's big reversal. The
S&P
made similiar inroads, but remained below Thursday's highs/Friday's
open.
Precious
metal stocks found some traction. Of the stocks to recover which
feature on my list, these look best positioned to gain. Bullish
hammers on higher volume abound - gold and silver mining stocks
should be good for a 3-5 day bounce at this point. Gold stocks look
better than silver stocks, the latter are not as oversold, while
bullish divergences between the MACD trigger line and price in gold
mining stocks (compare now to May) suggest good rallies in these
stocks over the next few days could build into a stronger bounce.
Stocks, in general, rallied
- some like TASR,
made substantial gains. Unfortunately, volume in many of these moves
was light and/or below average. Stocks on my public list that did
make heavy volume moves did so to the downside. INTC
broke upside of its pennant, although the lack lustre volume and
neutral spinning top does not suggest bull strength. SIRI
did likewise on modest volume, it closed at $2.51, a break of $2.62
would confirm the break of the pennant. IMAX
continued to suffer, releasing disappointing earnings
after hours that will likely result in a greater hit tomorrow. NT
shed 15% as it warned on lower
profit margins. The stock sits a few cents above $3.40 support,
next test is May lows. LU
did test May lows on average volume. It is on its fifth day of declines,
but retains a bullish divergence in the MACD. Buying a break of
todays highs ($3.14) would be an aggressive long play for a 10%
price objective. SUNW
is in a similiar position to LU, testing May lows. Watch for a bounce
over the coming days. AIRN
gained over 12% as its started a low volume relief bounce. CDIS
is in the process of starting its relief bounce, ending the day
on a bullish harami. HURC
attempted to stem yesterday's loses, ending the day on a bullish
inside day but on low volume. A relief bounce to $10.70 is best
outcome, but odds don't look favorable. IVAN's
arterial losses may have been stemmed by todays bullish harami-doji.
Look for rally to $1.50 and likely beyond, it closed today at $1.30.
LIOX
jumped 16.59% with heavy volume on analyst coverage,
it bounced off resistance of its declining channel, but a break
of this could see this fly - $7.75 is the pivot price to watch/buy,
it closed today at $7.17. OMNI
shares lost over 15%, confirming a downside break of recent price
congestion (triangle). There was no stock related news to account
for today's fall. MOBL
short two day bounce looks to have ended as it finished the day
on bearish cloud cover.
Some negative action was apparent
in the breakout candidates. Penny stock, CSII
which featured on July 8th
hits its stop, ending the day on a bullish hammer. Yesterday's
pick CVH ended
on a bearish inside day on higher volume. Penny stock, PAII,
which featured on July 23rd
was whipped out on todays intraday trading.
July 26th:
Another day for the bears to twist the screw. The NASDAQ
reached a measured move target of 1,830 - but there was little to
suggest the decline has completed. Todays spinning top does not
favor the bulls or bears. The NASDAQ
100 has likely negated the triple bottom as it closed below
March support, technicals (MACD and slow stochs) do not suggest
the selling is done. Some heart may be taken from the Sox
index which has tested support, but todays neutral spinning top
does not give the bulls an advantage, a loss of support would not
be surprising - technicals remain oversold although the MACD histogram
is attempting a bullish divergence. The Dow
ended on a bullish harami - volume has declined since last weeks
spike, another hint the selling has completed? New longs should
set stops on a loss of 9,913. The S&P
is still above support of a (bullish) reversal head-and-shoulder
pattern, but again - today's candlestick does not suggest the downside
is complete. Unfortunately, the Russell
2000 is building on its weakness, losing May support.
Precious
metal stocks had another ugly day, gold mining stocks are testing
May lows, silver stocks are slightly better off - but likely to
follow gold stocks down to (and below) May lows. Few stocks gained,
and those that did, did so on weakness. ATAC
bounced after 4-days of declines - but the bounce looks to be a
relief rally and a retest of $14.29 seems likely. SLPH
moved above $3 resistance, but the large red candlestick from earlier
in July remains dominant until $4.00 is breached. AIRN
looks primed for a relief bounce of its own, watch for move to $4.00
(halfway along the body of the big red candlestick). LIOX
attempted to hold the support line of its declining channel on higher
volume, but price action ended neutral (spinning top). One of Friday's
positives, DHB,
reversed to close below Friday's open. Look for test of Thursday
lows ($13.96). Breakout play, VLTS,
is an island amongst a sea of red, it closed at a new 52-week high.
Similiarly, penny stock, CTKH
gained 10% on massive volume, although there was no news released
by the company to account for the move. Penny stock, MOBL,
added 13.21% on light volume, following through on Friday's bullish
piercing pattern. FXEN
broke below its gently rising price channel on low volume. SMTS
closed at new lows for its decline, closing outside of a declining
channel. TASR
continued to collapse - closing down 14.53% on safety
concerns - typical in bear declines, such concerns were made apparent
before the stock reached its 52-week high, now that fear rules all
the negative aspects of the stock are amplified. IMAX
caved, losing 8.43% following form a prior low volume breakdown
of $5.16 support. XYBR
broke its rising bear flag. HURC
didn't gap down as expected, but still managed to lose 12.81% -
further loses look probable here. PRTL
shed over 10% on higher volume, earnings to be released on July
29th. Look for price move to lower support (green hashed line/blue
box). Swing traders might find some volume in INTC
- the pennant is likely to breakdown, but watch for a counter move
up to close the breakdown gap. A similiar pattern is developing
in SIRI.
Not surprisingly, there were
a few more breakout candidate failures. ATPG
which featured first on July
15th and again on July 20th
hit its stop on a rapid fall during the open. IAG
featured on July 8th added
to prior weakness, negating the breakout. TUNE
which featured on June 15th
lost its stop after an initial move to $4.90 highs failed to reach
price objectives.
DD as always, DJF
July 23rd:
The weakness of yesterday's bounce was underscored by todays selling.
The volatility index, $VXN,
lead the reversal, breaking upside from its tight consolidation.
The upswing in fear sent markets scrambling to new lows. The potential
(bullish) reversal head-and-shoulder pattern in the NASDAQ
is hanging on by a thread, as is a triple bottom in the NASDAQ
100. The Dow
eased on lighter volume, but closed above the lows of yesterday's
hammer - new support is defined by todays lows of 9,931 (the bullish
hammer remains dominant as a reversal signal - if only just). However,
the Russell
2000 negated yesterday's potential reversal hammer by closing
beneath its lows. The Philly Sox
reversed lower, but still has to test the declining support line.
No bottom in the tech indices will be in place until this happens.
The only bullish aspect about today was the lighter volume - but
its small comfort if holding long positions. Realistically, a reversal
at this point would require a retest of current lows to confirm
the completion of the selling - so potential longs best wait on
the sidelines unless you intend to trade a 2-3 day bounce (and so
far, bounces have fallen flat on their face).
Not surprisingly, there was
little bullish action in featured stocks. Gold
lost support of its rising channel, further pressurising weak mining
stocks. Silver
prices continue to hold above support, although the metals strength
was not evident in silver
mining stock prices (CDE, SSRI, PAAS, and SIL). CMN
attempted to hold support on lighter volume, ending the day on a
bullish inside day - but given recent attempts at this from the
like of TASR
it is unlikely to succeed. Yesterday's big gainer, QCOM,
stumbled in its test of resistance. Today's bearish inside day will
give solace to the shorts - it appears $73 resistance is one step
too far for the stock, watch for a double top - confirmed on a loss
of $67.40, it closed today at $70.40. SIRI
looks to be forming a bearish pennant - swing traders can play the
break of support/resistance. Based on the prior trend and the current
market, the break should be to the downside. CDIS
acclerated its loss to the downside, closing below $30 on increasing
technical weakness - short the next bounce if it comes. CYBS
appears to be forming a bearish wedge, watch this for a break and
test of $4.54, it closed today at $5.51. FXEN
completed a bearish "three black crow" series of candles,
but managed to stay above support of a (bearish) rising channel.
HURC
edged below its recent sideways congestion, watch for a gap down
on Monday. Yesterday's supposed bullish piercing pattern in PKTR
was shattered today as the stock gapped down, losing 41% on its
earnings
miss. The selling did not relent in SSTI
as its (bullish) inverse hammer was blown out of the water at todays
open, the stock closed down an additional 6.53%.
One of the few bright spots
today was DHB,
although it continues to trade in a sloppy sideways action below
resistance. Recent price and volume flyer, MOBL,
consolidated its recent two-day declines, closing with a bullish
hammer on low volume. Watch for bounce back to resistance
e.
July 22nd:
Markets may have rallied, but a large number of individual stocks
failed to recover from yesterday's selling, indeed, a number of
new stocks started to break down. Attempted bullish reversals in
the NASDAQ,
Dow,
and S&P
lacked the price reversal, or volume to suggest a bottom was in
place. The NASDAQ
100 made the strongest price reversal, but fell a few points
shy of completing a bullish piercing pattern as volume was well
below yesterdays. The doji/hammer in the Russell
2000 and Dow
will require a higher open and stronger close to affirm these candlesticks
as a bottom which would hold on a retest. Weaker
after hours trading from MSFT following it earnings release will
likely see markets open weaker tomorrow. The volatility index, $VXN,
looks primed for a big leap up, which will likely be triggered by
a sell off similar to yesterdays.
Weakness was most apparent
in the former breakout
stocks. JSDA
looks set for a 3-4 week reversal as it ended on a bearish (black)
inverse hammer following its lengthy rally. VLTS
was the only stock in this list to gain on a bullish engulfing pattern.
Has WLDA
bottomed with its hammer? Large cap, QCOM,
reversed yesterdays losses on heavier volume on the release of its
earnings
- the rally was driven in part by short covering. ADNW
may have bottomed as it ended the day on a bullish hammer on higher
volume, having bouncing off support intraday. It released earnings
of 0.05 (EPS) after hours today. Reversal patterns on higher volume
were noted in OPSW,
PKTR,
and SNIC,
although the latter remains below support of its rising channel.
Strong earnings were not the
medicine which drove VISG
higher in after hours trading yesterday, the rights to add 7.5m
common stock to the float surpressing the enthusiasm. However, it
didn't suffer the fate of MAGS
as it broke $16.10 support on light volume. Should MAGS follow the
trend of VISG, it will undercut it's $12.35 support with ease. Earnings
are to be released on Monday. IPIX
was less affected by the selling. SSPI
adopted a similar price pattern, the start of a potential crash
in the price? There was no news
to account for the decline. AIRN
followed through to the downside on huge volume. ERES
lost 15% after its earnings
release. IVAN
slipped outside support of its declining channel, extending a sequence
of declines. The love
affair with Chinese (related) stocks fades into the distance.
At the end of IVAN's decline should come a hammer as appeared in
LIOX
today - have we seen a bottom here? SSTI
suffered a similar fate as it released earnings but guided lower
- today may mark a capitulation, but further downside on low volume
would not be surprising in this market. TASR
failed to hold prior support, breaking down on light volume, next
target for support is $23.76, it ended today at $29.28.
On the breakout front there
were further failures - even more so than yesterday. BEIQ,
which featured on May 28th
hit its stop. CEDC,
which featured on June 22nd
hit its stop in the second day of heavy volume declines. Bulletin
board play, DTMG,
featured on July 9th, was
also stopped out. Also reversing its breakout was PKG,
which recently featured on July
21st. Closing on a bullish hammer, but taking out its stop was
TSG which featured
on June 16th. UNWR,
which featured on June 3rd
has started to roll over - hitting its stop.
Back to top
July 21st:
Earnings fear
raised it's head again as the markets tumbled. MSFT news was a buy
the rumor, sell
the news event. All markets reversed yesterday's gains on higher
volume. To me, it looks like the start of a capitulation - a capitulation
that is occurring within the confines of a larger consolidation.
if we can maintain the broad down channel this could be the wash
out needed. The NASDAQ,
NASDAQ
100, Dow,
Russell
2000, and S&P
all flashed similar patterns. The Philly Sox
looks better positioned to test the channel support line (which
it had not done previously). Precious
metal stocks did not benefit from the decline as the dollar
rallied; gold
eased below $400, and silver
dropped to $6.41, but the latter remained above $6.20 support. Indeed,
many mining stocks look attractive short opportunities as technical
breakdowns abound. May lows are unlikely to hold in many of these
stocks, CDE,
is one stock which has already undercut these lows.
Too many losers on the public
stocklist to mention, but there was 1 winner; JSDA
continued its earlier rally, moving to new 52-week highs on above
average volume. Of stocks that could have performed worse, but didn't
were LEXR,
NT,
and DHB.
LEXR could hardly get worse, volume has dropped off considerably
since all the negative news was released. Large cap, NT, maintains
support while many around fail, while DHB does its best to maintain
an ascending triangle, although todays bearish engulfing pattern
switches the mood in the bears favor. HURC
continues to hang on, although it remains below resistance. MAGS
holds a tight trading range on low volume. OPSW
continues to build support - its losses today were light relative
to other beat down stocks. PRTL
consolidation has remained in a very tight range on low volume.
If it can survive the sell off it should be a decent value play.
TASR
holds support with a bullish inside day - although the light volume
does not suggest the bulls are in control.
On the breakout front. GHCI,
which featured on June 30th
hit its stop. WHAI,
which featured on June 15th
also clipped its stop.
Back to top
July 20th:
Alan Greenspan soothed
the markets, although given his prior testimony the "news"
could hardly have been unexpected. The NASDAQ
gained off yesterday's bullish hammer, but volume was still shy
of a follow through (below yesterdays volume) - so far this looks
to be a relief rally - but things can chang very quickly. A bullish
follow through will occur when 1,926 is breached on higher volume,
but the highs of the big red candlestick will mark a potential "falling
three methods" on the rally from here. The Dow
reversed yesterdays loses - but volume was considerably lighter
than yesterday. Large resistance remains above. The NASDAQ
100 locked in a similar pattern to the NASDAQ
with volume below average for a bullish follow through. Although
the tech indices have suffered the most in recent days, there is
some hope developing in the secondary indices. The $BPCOMPQ
is showing a strong bullish divergence in the MACD, with the trigger
line just shy of the zero mid-line, a bullish divergence in the
RSI, and to a lesser degree in slow stochastics is apparent too.
Prior bullish divergences in the MACD have been maintained in the
$NAA50
and the $NASI
also. The Russell
2000 had the strongest day - ending above the 200-day SMA, but
just below the 50-day SMA. Further gains tomorrow should catapult
this higher - this looks to be at a cusp of its next big move. Watch
the MACD for crossover in this index, although slow stochastics
continued down (a bearish marker to today's rally) and the ADX line
is showing a stronger downtrend. Similarly, the Philly Sox
is also showing an increasing strength downtrend, although the index
consolidated its recent loses, it will take a big one day gain to
jolt the bears out of control. The S&P
is closest to mapping the March rebound, closing above the last
few days indecision. Technicals in this index remain reasonably
strong and this looks best placed to lead the next rally (bringing
the tech indices with it).
Precious metal stocks are
likely to suffer the most as money rotates from the base metal into
stocks. Both gold
and silver
prices eased which had a correspondingly negative impact on precious
metal stocks.
Given the strength of today's
markets, stocks had a good day. One good day does not reverse weeks
of weakness but keep an eye out for potential bullish follow throughs.
From the breakout page (page 3), CMN
attempted to regain yesterday's loses - volume came in lighter than
yesterday so the bears still have control here. AXCA
finished on a bullish engulfing pattern on higher volume, but remains
below $20.75 resistance on continued technical weakness. HYC
traded up slightly after yesterday's big gains, but failed to break
$8 resistance. IDEV
gained on light volume following yesterday's bullish reversal -
resistance is some distance away at $6.65, but there will be supply
issues to chew through on the way up, it closed at $5.71. GIGM
held lower channel support and is mapping a bullish divergence with
its MACD. IMAX
rallied on modest volume, but remains caught below $5.45 support
and trendline resistance. VISG
begun a relief bounce, gaining 12.4% on light volume - it releases
earnings on Thursday. SIRI
gained in a similar fashion - closing below $2.63 resistance. SUNW
managed to follow through on heavier gains yesterday. Earnings
were released after hours, but stock price appears to be holding.
Interestingly, the QQQs
(and the SPYs)
outperformed the parent index - rallying on higher volume to the
point of negating a "falling
three methods" evident in the NASDAQ
and NASDAQ
100.
Of the member picks, OPSW
looks to have found support on today's hammer and yesterday's long
lower shadow - any bounce will be a relief bounce unless volume
rises to the upside. MNG
lost support as it falls in sympathy with precious metal stocks.
REDF
gave up support, but volume was light and the day ended on a bullish
inverse hammer - bulls are not knocked out here yet. TASR
shed 14% after the release of its earnings and continued concerns
over its safety. While SSTI
showed a second day of accumulation. Given where it lies close to
support, there is an aggressive buy here - earnings
are released tomorrow. On the penny share front, MOBL
and ONT
were the real winners - the latter looks set for a test of $1.24
while the former is making strong inroads to $0.295 resistance.
On the breakout front. CRZO,
which featured on June 18th
hit its stop. While ITRI,
which featured on June 7th
gapped below is stop price on a weak
earnings report and downgrade.
Back to top
July 19th:
The tech markets attempted a mid-afternoon rally, but were beat
down at the close. The NASDAQ
ended the day on a bullish hammer on above average volume. The NASDAQ
100 ended the day on a more indecisive (ie. neutral) spinning
top. The S&P
also closed in an indecisive manner, although the decline is showing
some similiarities to that of March and may be forming a bullish
reversal H-a-S pattern. The Dow
took a hit on lower volume as 3M earnings disappointed
the markets, further downside looks likely here as it plays catch-up
to the tech indices. The Russell
2000 put in a bullish doji in an attempt to put a bottom in
the small cap index. The index still looks bad in the intermediate
trend, but over the next 2-3 days we may see some strength in this
area. The Philly Sox
still has yet to test the declining support trendline, so there
may a couple more days of weakness in tech stocks to shake the weak
hands here.
From my public stockchart.com
list, precious metal stocks were weaker as the underlying base metal
prices reversed some of Friday's gains. Stocks like HL
and BGO
are forming consolidation triangles that are likely to break in
the direction of the larger (3.5-month) trend ie. down. DROOY
did just that. HL releases earnings on Aug 4th. Silver stocks which
had performed well over the last month look a little toppy in the
short term. PAAS
is on course to confirm a double top (a move below $14.50 confirms)
and SSRI ended on a large bearish engulfing pattern.
CMN
lost support after the July 9th reversal - a good time to take profits,
or step aside, as next support lies at $23.00, it closed at $24.38.
HYC
jumped on huge volume, although it closed below $8.00 resistance,
it traded at $8.56 after hours but there is no
news to account for the move. JSDA
began a low volume pullback off $4.00 resistance, watch volume on
the decline - it shouldn't increase during a bullish pullback. VLTS
ended on a bearish inverse hammer - the declining volume in the
uptrend is another bearish signal. Take profits on loss of todays
lows. IMAX
broke down to a support level and sits shy of a drop to $4.04. Much
maligned IDEV
garnerned some support with a large hammer on above average volume
- look for move to $6.00, the stock closed today at $5.24. LU
broke support and completed a bearish "three
black crows" sequence. Short positions are favored here.
A similar pattern appeared in JDSU.
There was no relief for SIRI,
although volume picked up which suggests a capitulation should occur
soon. On balance volume in QCOM
moved to a new 6-month low - is this the start of its broad selloff?
So far it is managed to stay close to former resistance of $70.
INTC
provided some support with a bullish harami - aggressive longs could
take a position here with a stop on a loss of todays lows, while
SUNW
rallied on above average volume in the run up to its earnings
annoucement.
Of the member picks, AIRN
lost $4.50 support on average volume, losing 4.3% to close at $4.45,
completing a bearish "M" reversal. ADNW
lost another 7.89% following on from Fridays 6.94% loss. CYBS
crashed another 14.77%, sending it hurtling towards March lows killing
the entire April rally - other than earnings last week, there was
no news to account
for today's slide. DHB
remains in a bearish flag consolidation, although the possibility
of a bullish ascending triangle has not been negated. Trade break
of triangle. ERES
closed below the lows of last Thursdays' breakout - trapping the
bulls who bought the breakout - technicals continue to weaken -
move to the sidelines or sell. HURC
looks ready to take the next step down - todays spinning top implies
indecision, although the bulls are probably more scared here. Security
issues had a bad day as TASR
and IPIX
lost support and VISG
continues to slide. MAGS
sits just about support but is likely to fall in sympathy. TASR
suffered from a NY Times story on their weapons safety.
The stock releases earnings tomorrow. VISG
now lies at its 200-day MA. REDF
and GIGM
suffered from overall weakness in Asian internet stocks, while SNIC
dipped below support on light volume. Penny stock, MOBL,
was the big winner today, adding 20% on news of acquisition.
The stock had gained 21% on Friday. Fellow penny stock, ECGI
and DSLN
bounced off support while gains were also found in pink sheet plays
CTKH
and CMKX.
More suffering on the breakout
front. Recently featured WLDA
hit its stop after 3 weeks of wild trading. Prices are likely to
drift back to $3.00 before buyers start sniffing again. The stock
featured on July 7th.
Back to top
July 16th:
Weak consumer
strength and rising oil prices added to the general tech sickness
in the markets. No market escaped the selling wrath. Volume picked
up the downside, and a number of prior bullish divergences in technicals
were broken. Again, the NASDAQ
and NASDAQ
100 suffered the most, edging closer to May lows. The prior
breakout gap in the NASDAQ
closed and a measured move to 1,830 is favored here. The NASDAQ
100 edged closer to a similar move, but still retains its breakout
gap. The Philly Sox
is the lead barometer for the tech markets and it remains ugly -
a support level is approaching, namely the lower trendline of a
declining channel - will this provide the impetus for a bounce?
The Russell
2000 took another step down, ending its attempt to hold the
line, similarly the S&P
acclerated its loses, although the technicals for this index remain
relatively strong (compared to the tech indices). The Dow
remained the strongest of the indices, closing down, but ending
on a bullish
inverse hammer. Will blue chip stocks lead the next rally? Flight
to quality.
From my public stockchart.com
list, silver stocks were the big winners today as silver
prices continued to rise. PAAS
completed a pullback and rallied on above average volume while SIL
broke to new 3-month highs. CSCO
was one tech stock that had endured the sell off relatively unscathed
- but not today. It lost $22 support on average volume, closing
at $21.58. Stocks in general took a beating, mostly on light volume
which suggests further selling is needed to wash out the weak hands,
these included IDEV,
VISG,
GIGM,
SIRI,
SUNW,
AIRN,
. One stock that may have completed its selling is LEXR.
All the bad news
is out and todays volume was not the surge that yesterdays was.
The stock has a 66.8m float, half of which is in institutional hands
(although that figure will likely be revised lower), in the last
three weeks some 50m shares have changed hands while the bullish
divergence in MACD holds. One to watch. QCOM
confirmed its breakout failure by testing, but not closing above
resistance. MACD and slow stochs made new near term lows while on
balance volume is on course for a new 6-month low. ADNW
dropped 6.94% on heavy volume confirming its prior breakdown, the
stock released earnings
today. Another stock suffering after its earnings
report was CYBS,
down 19.86%. ERES
reversed yesterdays breakout on higher volume, watch for weakness
next week. Bears also kept FXEN in check, volume
remained light. LIOX
lost support of a triple bottom, ending the week with "three
black crows", look for a continuation of the downside here.
XYBR
followed through on prior weakness, shedding 4.26% on increasing
volume, but moving below $1.43 support. Penny stock, DSLN,
fell victim to the pump-and-dump, closing a penny above lower support
of $0.28. Rough days were also had by penny stocks, ECGI
and GTEL,
although MOBL
staged a breakout to close up 21% to end the day at $0.18.
IVAN's
attempted bounce was weak - ending the day on a bearish black candlestick.
Look for a further test of the support line (should this be in fact
support?). Prior market victims OPSW
and SNIC
managed to hold their recent lows, watch for a bounce in these stocks.
TASR
looks an excellent swing trade (bullish pressure), with tight trading
on light volume.
Further breakout plays were
stopped out. Recently featured MYE,
reversed its breakout on reports of illegal
practices, it appeared on the list on July
15th. HYC,
featured on June 18th hit
its stop after reversing a breakout the previous week. Penny breakout,
VEXP,
clipped its stop following a couple of days of sideways trading.
It featured on July 7th.
SMTS,
which was one of the first breakouts to feature on May
25th, hit its stop after failing to reach its price target from
a post-breakout rally. ATEA,
featured on June 2nd gave
up its stop in late day trading. IDSY,
which also featured on June 2nd
hit its stop of $10.79 having previously rallied to highs of $16.18.
One stock, IST,
did manage to reach its price target for a 26.72% gain, it was the
first breakout featured on the list on May
24th.
Back to top
July 15th:
Earnings were again the cause of the market malaise, yesterday's
positive releases by Apple and Sandisk countered by anticipated
earnings from IBM, as well as disappointing earnings from Citigroup
and Nokia. The markets effectively treaded water, but made little
effort to move upwards. Volume returned to normal following Intel's
trading. The NASDAQ
and NASDAQ
100 finished just above yesterdays lows, but other markets were
less fortunate and this will likely impact the tech indices tomorrow.
The Dow
closed below prior lows and the 10,200 support level, but has traded
in the upper end of its range since the start of the market correction
in July. The S&P
similarly failed to hold recent support, completing (ableit late)
on a "falling
three methods" trading sequence, look for lower prices
tomorrow. The Philly Sox
index treaded water after its breakdown, but this will likely continue
downwards. The Russell
2000 index was the only bright spot for the day, remaining in
a sideways pattern following its breakdown from a rising channel
last week.
Gold stocks benefitted from
market worries, stemming some the weakness in the sector yesterday.
GSS
traded flat for the day, failing to follow through on yesterdays
slide. While, KGC
and HL
held support lines. The jump in silver
prices has yet to be reflected in silver stock prices, but stocks
like PAAS
continue to map bullish consolidations (falling prices on declining
volume). Look for a continuation of the nascent rallies in SSRI
and SIL.
Yesterdays little uptick in security stocks reversed to more intent
selling today; VISG
lost $7 support, while DHB
ended the day on bearish
cloud cover two-day combination. IDEV
lost $5.74 support and fell outside of a potential bullish consolidation.
While LEXR
benefitted from the SNDK
news, it failed to hold early gains in anticipation of its own earnings.
Large caps similarly suffered, INTC
adding to its weakness, but the likes of JDSU,
LU,
SUNW
and QCOM
all traded down, the latter negating last months breakout. Not surprsingly,
SIRI's
attempt to hang on took a stamping, but recent lows held. The big
losers on the day were the QQQ,
SPY,
and DIA's,
each of these broke near term support and sent them packing towards
May lows.
Of the member picks, ERES
was one of the better stocks today, rising to new highs on above
average volume, while FXEN continued to impress,
adding 1.17% as part of a small rally. HURC's
up and down sequence again encountered resistance and could still
go either way. IVAN
reached a lower support trendline, but the lack of volume does not
suggest it will hold. DSLN
suffered another round of profit taking, losing $0.35 support, while
GZFX
endured a similar fate after its rapid gains yesterday.
One of the former frontpage
breakouts, ATPG, made a second breakout move today. Details listed
on the message board.
Back to top
July 14th:
Todays huge volume in the markets reflected the morning-after-the-night
before earnings release of INTC.
But this should not disguise what was an otherwise good day for
the markets. The expectation was for horror, but once the markets
digested the INTC report, value players stepped in to drive a reversal.
The markets eventually gave back these gains, but failed to close
below support as defined by this morning lows. Favorable afterhours
reports
from AAPL and SNDK should give the markets a boost tomorrow. The
Dow
was caught in indecision, the "spinning
top" marking the struggle between bulls and bears. The
NASDAQ
and NASDAQ
100 ended on inverse
hammers - a bullish reversal signal, strengthened by their appearance
within a major support zone defined by May trading. The S&P
fell just shy of completing a "falling
three methods" combination, closer higher than the lows
of the first bearish candle. If there is no follow through (down)
tomorrow the formation will fail. Unfortunately, the Philly Sox
index was the real loser today, crumbling through support - it will
be interesting to see how the market reacts to this critical (bearish)
turn. Futures
were up as of 19:30 ET.
Stocks to watch tomorrow include
LEXR.
Its competitor, SNDK,
released strong
earnings on the back of digital camera flash cards. LEXR
releases its own earnings tomorrow - there is a bullish divergence
in MACD that should push to new highs, as well as two breakout price
gaps to close. Recent breakout play, CMN,
suffered high volume selling, the large bearish
engulfing pattern is an ominous sign for the stock. Likely to
pullback, but volume should be closer to average on moves to the
downside - today was as good as reason as any to take profits off
the table (or simply get out!). As noted below, SLPH
took a beating hitting its stop price, next support for the stock
lies at $2.35, it closed today at $2.86. Security related issues
had a good day. VISG
continued to hold February support, while MAGS
and IPIX
ticked to the upside. DHB
featured strongly on the back of a $37m
contract, breaking important $14.75 resistance, watch for test
of $16.45 (52-week high), it closed today at $15.73. JDSU
traded up as it announced plans
to report earnings on July 28th. SIRI
dug its nails into support - today counts as a bullish inside day,
although any bounce will likely be a relief bounce before the stock
can put in a firm bottom (on a retest of yesterdays lows - likely
to take 2-4 weeks). SUNW's
attempt to hold on failed as it lost 2.56% on light volume, negating
its own bullish inside day from yesterday.
Penny stock, DSLN,
may have had its day as it ended with a bearish
cloud cover sequence on massive volume. A pullback to $0.35
support looks set at minimum, it closed today at $0.39. GZFX
did the opposite, and rallied after yesterday's capitulation. The
jump looks too much, too fast, so watch for sideways action to consolidate
the gain.
A little weakness crept into
gold stocks in the light of yesterdays reversal of gold
prices. GSS
was the biggest loser on the list, dropping over 5% on light volume.
KGC
sits at support of its former triangle, while HL
reversed its own break of resistance and looks ready to test $5.41,
it closed today at $5.99.
As for the breakout plays,
SLPH featured
on July 7th reversed on massive
volume - there was no news item to spark the selloff, but no doubt
something is in the pipeline. If not stopped out, sell on the "dead-cat-bounce".
AKAM featured
on June 28th nicked its
stop after a couple of weeks of weakness, it ended today on a spinning
top, so neither bull nor bear are in control. CADA
clipped its stop after weeks of sideways trading, it ended on a
bullish engulfing pattern but its technicals had weakened considerable
since it featured on May 27th.
The June 17th candidate,
PPDI, crashed
through its stop price prior to its earnings
release. On the flip side, JSDA,
featured on June 29th, reached
its price target while successfully managing a third breakout, a
modest 21% gain, more upside looks likely here.
Back to top
July 13th:
The market traded on the basis of anticipated weak INTC earnings
and got what it wanted. Tomorrow should see a gap down in the markets,
the question is how far down will markets open. The Dow
was the most bullish index and treaded water on very light volume.
The NASDAQ
ended today on a "bearish
cloud cover" for a fifth distribution day. The NASDAQ
100 behaved similarly poorly, losing support of the MACD trigger
line bullish divergence. The Philly Sox
looks set to lose support tomorrow, while the S&P
will likely complete its "falling
three methods" bearish combination tomorrow, expected to
trade near Thursday's lows.
It was left to the penny stocks
to make the gains. The big winner today was NT,
adding 12% on huge volume ending its recent pullback. The company
announced plans to slash
costs. Penny stock, DSLN,
rallied 20% following on from its recent huge buying volume.
GTEL
moved over resistance, but ended the day on a (bearish) inverse
hammer - watch closely for further weakness. ONEI
finished strongly on heavier volume, the pullback from $1.74 looks
complete - it ended today at $1.40. Gold prices
reversed a recent near term break of $405, which had minimal impact
on gold stocks. Gold remains within a rising price channel and is
bullish for the intermediate term. Look for a bounce for the support
trendline. By in large, the featured breakout
plays had a good day, which in light of a terrible market should
be viewed as bullish. Also in this category is AES.
FXEN
continued to base, and todays little rally will give hope to the
bulls that the consolidation period is close to ending. ERES
pulled back from weakness last week to end the last 3 days on a
bulllish "three
white soldiers" sequence, it lies a couple of dollars away
from new 52-week highs.
There were many victims to
the day, other than INTC.
VISG
continued to drip losses and now sits at support of February highs.
SIRI
is now in freefall, likewise IVAN
has entered into rapid capitulation decline, the stock needs volume
to complete the wash-out. Continued weakness was present in OPSW
and SNIC.
Although LU
rallied higher on heavier volume, negating yesterday's tip of the
hat towards the bears - however, todays doji marks indecision, so
bulls are not entirely convinced by the move. HURC's
little bounce looks complete - todays bearish engulfing pattern
favors short positions at this point.
As for the breakout plays,
EMED joined the
list of failures as it shed 11.29% on heavier volume, it was one
of the first stocks to feature on May
24th.
Back to top
July 12th:
A bullish end to the day as markets rallied in afternoon trading,
but the lack of volume suggests little conviction to the buying.
The Dow
managed to inch above resistance of its narrow channel, but in the
absence of any real volume its hard to say if this is the start
of something better. The NASDAQ
bounced as prices dipped to levels last traded during the May congestion
period (highlighted in purple). The NASDAQ
100 ended the day on a bullish hammer, in a price and volume
pattern similar to that of May 10th. The Philly Sox
remained above support while the Russell
2000 attempted to gain traction after its rising channel breakdown.
Although the S&P
has the makings of a "falling
three methods" bearish continuation sequence; look for
another small rally tommorrow to end the day below Thursday's open,
then a drop on Wednesday to take prices back to Thursday's lows.
A break of last Thursday's highs negates the formation.
Individual stocks had quiet
days, although there were a few exceptions. AAC
continued its downward trend - building on a prior "three
black crow" candlestick combination. The breakdown of the
triangle should get worse before we see some form of capitulation.
SIRI
continued its recent descent from its own "three
black crows", edging closer to 6-month support. Volume
remains below average which suggests insufficient fear to force
a capitulation. LU
prior sequence of 4 (bullish) dojis ended today as prices closed
lower, undercutting support of this bullish sequence. Watch for
lower prices tomorrow. SUNW
failed to regain prior support (now resistance) as the stock shed
2.5%, threatening to acclerate its own recent downtrend. CYBS
failed to bulid from Friday's inside day, losing 6.17% to put it
on course to test $6.25 support (last hope for the bulls). OPSW
was another stock to suffer a similar fate - bears once again grabbing
this by the scruff of the neck as it failed to build from Friday's
attempted rally. SMTS
returned to weakness, and may form a bearish descending triangle
as it lost a prior breakout for the second time. The stock lost
8.93% to close at $13.25, the original breakout occured on a move
past $14.05.
It was left to the penny stocks
to put on some show of force. DSLN
rallied on huge volume, it sits just shy of a break of $0.35 resistance.
Targets of $0.60 and $0.76 look within range after the prior week's
accumulation. ONT
was another winner, closing a previous breakdown gap and rallying
higher on another surge of volume. Next resistance for this is at
$1.24, it closed today at $1.01. GTEL
was another penny stock that sits just shy of a break of resistance
but with an increase in upside volume. It closed today at $0.116,
up 16% on double average volume. On the flip side, GZFX
lost 7.45% to end the day below May support, look to sell the next
bounce.
Today's frontpage breakout
play, CZN, should
be watched closely as Moody's
cut its ratings to junk in an after hours news release. There were
two more failures from the breakout plays; PTIE,
featured on June 7th hit
its stop today, as did last weeks PDC,
the latter on an 8K
filed to offer 4 million additional common stock.
Back to top
July 9th:
The markets struggled to regain prior intermediate support levels,
testing them, but failing to close above them - a bearish confirmation
signal. The most positive action was seen in the Dow
as it closed above 10,200, but additionally formed a narrow declining
consolidation channel on declining volume - this looks set for an
upside breakout. The best hope for the bulls is a development similar
to that of early March when the markets consolidated for a few days
before gapping down to produce bullish island reversals. I have
marked in NASDAQ
100 where I suspect such a play may occur. Note the prior tests
of the bullish divergence in the MACD trigger line, look for a bounce
in the index from the next test of this line. Similar plays (but
with a bit more room to fall in the MACD, and slow stochastic technicals)
exists in the NASDAQ
and the S&P.
The Philly Sox
climbed further away from support, but still has a long way to go
to escape trouble.
In general, the markets had
a quiet day - recovering from the shock of a nasty week of trading.
HL
followed through on yesterdays breakout on modest volume. Strong
consolidation action was found in GSS
and BGO,
ending the day on bullish hammers
or dojis
on low volume. CMN
suffered from its recent success,
shedding 8% on heavy volume. IDEV
slowed its sharp descent consolidating into a declining channel
on low volume - watch for upside break into fib retracements - an
aggressive buy here, place stops just outside the support line.
LEXR
is attempting a relief bounce on above average volume, look for
resistance at $7.30, it closed today at $6.70. LEXR releases its
earnings on July
15th. LU
posted four dojis in a row - likely to move higher from here, but
trading a break of the high/lows is an excellent swing trade. A
stock to watch for an upcoming rally is PRTL,
buy when the bullish divergence in the MACD trigger line is tested,
or there is a close over a prior 2-day high. Another stock set for
a bounce at current prices is SNIC.
It looks to have tested support of a slow rising channel - set stops
on loss of channel support.
AXCA
featured on June 22nd hit
its stop. Although the majority of recent breakouts have been a
disappointment, two breakouts managed to reappear again; JSDA
which featured on June 29th,
and VLTS,
which featured on June 16th
managed new breakouts - I had suggested yesterday JSDA was on course
to hit its prior stop, but it received a big boost prior to market
opening with analyst
coverage initiated on the stock this morning.
Back to top
July 8th:
The markets broke through intermediate support levels. The next
support levels on the way down are 1,932 for the NASDAQ,
10,050 for the Dow,
and 1,103 for the S&P.
The Philly Sox
sits resisted falling through the 6-month descending triangle, probably
the only bullish thing to say about today. While the Russell
2000 was the big loser, confirming the breakdown of the rising
channel. Support for this index rests at 557 (weak support) and
530, it ended today at 560. Look for small cap stocks to take a
beating over the coming days as investors hide amongst precious
metal stocks and larger caps.
Precious metal stocks were
the chief winners today. Gold
broke to a new 3-month high, with silver
marking a similar strong move. Of the mining stocks, HL
and |