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User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 31st: A day of contrasts; large caps (Dow and S&P) burst through August lows and their 20-day MAs, on volume in a fashion typical of late bull markets. However, the gain in large caps were not enough to stall small caps from retaking the leadership role {Small caps > Large caps > Tech}. The Russell 2000 didn't wimp out with a sizable bullish engulfing pattern which cleared its 20-day MA. The index is well placed for a challenge of its 50-day MA, but prior tests of this average did not result in breaks of consequence, so bulls have their work cut out. Technicals could best be described as 'so-so' which might spell trouble for the test when it comes. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 greeted their 20-day MAs as they closed on August resistance. But it was more interesting to see the lack of participation from the semiconductor index - the index which held up best over New Year selling, turned a blind eye to the broad market gains. The series of three doji at the 20-day MA sets up an interesting swing trade; buy break of 3-day high/low with a stop on the flip side. I suspect it will break upside (but for the purpose of disclosure I have a long interest in the SMH), but that is more hunch than substance (technicals are improving, but they are working from very bearish conditions).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 30th: The 0.50% Fed rate cut was of no surprise. By the end of day markets in much the same condition as they were at the start of the day, even if the wide range day suggested otherwise. Volume was not excessive given the end-of-day selling, which may favor bulls - although complacency on the part of bulls would see a similar drop in volume. The Dow and S&P poked their heads above August lows and their respective 20-day MAs, but each ended the day below these resistance levels. On the plus side, there were MACD trigger 'buys' for both large cap indices. The NASDAQ also made a brief visit to August resistance (the NASDAQ 100 fell just short), while the Russell 2000 lost out most with relative strength shift in favor of large caps {Large caps > Small caps > Tech}, a more bearish alignment for markets. The semiconductor index appeared relatively immune to the Fed, barely shifting as it finished next to its 20-day MA.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] remained bullish despite the selling. The Percent of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) shows a strong bullish divergence in the MACD trigger line, following that of its Ultimate Oscillator. A similar divergence in the MACD of the Summation Index ($NASI) is also developing.

The likelihood is for a retest of January lows which should shake out the last of the weak hands before a more substantial rally can develop.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 26th: Friday's positive news pre-market, and the resulting gaps at the open, quickly faded into low volume bearish engulfing patterns by the close of trading for many of the indices. In the semiconductor index this reversal occurred at the 20-day MA. While for the Dow it happened at August lows. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 saw opens above August support, but by the close of business this support had turned into resistance once more. The Russell 2000 was only lightly affected by the selling - a good sign for bull watchers. TraderMike was more bearish on Friday's action, but given the bullish push over the last two days it would have been hard for the markets to have held morning strength. Heavy selling on Monday might change that!

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] further worked on creating a bottom for the NASDAQ. There was a MACD trigger buy in the Nasdaq Percent of Stocks above the 50-day MA $NAA50R), in addition to a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA for the Nasdaq Bullish Percent ($BPCOMPQ). This action suggests the market bottom is still developing. .

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 24th: It would have been a big ask for markets to post substantial gains after Wednesday's action, but the good news for bulls (and bad for bears) was all of yesterday's gains held. I do think markets need to test the strength of Wednesday's buying before a true rally can begin and bears do have some weapons to hand. First of which is resistance as defined by last August lows; these come in at 2,387 for the NASDAQ, 12,518 for the Dow, 1,853 for the NASDAQ 100, 736 for the Russell 2000, and 1,371 for the S&P. The semiconductor index has perhaps the most room in this regard with resistance up at 402. The 20-day MAs are an additional level of supply which bears will use to leverage new short positions.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] saw mixed action. The Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) generated a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA, but it will take a technical confirmation to suggest this corresponds to a bottom in the NASDAQ. The MACD is very close to generating a 'buy' trigger on deeply oversold stochastics, positive factors contributing to a confirmation. The Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) and Summation Index ($NASI) declined, but these take a little longer to reverse. Consequently, they tend to deliver slightly later, but clearer signals. All three Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are in deep bearish market territory, so I will be expecting tops (and reversals) at levels below what we have seen in the past from these internals. But that is another story for a later day.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 23rd: The good news from today was the appearance of a bottom. The bad news was the gains were almost too much. It also would have been better if Wednesday's huge volume had occurred on Tuesday's sell off. The problem with volume accompanying an up day is that most of it was probably short covering and not fear selling.

Watch for a sharp bounce (to the 20-day MA?) and light retracement to Wednesday's lows. Ideally, markets would bounce to the 20-day MA, shift sideways until the 50-day MA greeted prices, drive through the 50-day MA and up past the 200-day MA. The Dow and S&P posted picture perfect tweezer bottoms, with long lower candlestick shadows denoting demand. The NASDAQ produced a bullish engulfing pattern, while the NASDAQ 100 closed with a bullish piercing pattern. The semiconductor index continued its good form having resisted much of the selling for the past few days. The Russell 2000 leapt higher, gaining over 3% on the day - but the real momentum was from its continued improvement with respect to relative strength, leading the pack in an alignment more typical of bull markets {Small caps > Large caps > Tech indices}.

Where next? Well, bulls will have their work cut out consuming overhead supply. Moving averages will provide another layer of resistance to the pie. It could be a slog and I would be looking at Fibonacci retracements for upside targets. But bulls can at least think something has gone their way.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 22nd: An overnight meltdown in global markets and a 0.75% Fed rate cut, Tuesday's market had it all. A 'V'-bottom for the markets sounds too easy at this stage so a a retest of Tuesday's lows would be preferable (but not necessary). The heavier volume on the day was below what I would have expected given all the pre-market fear - but again, perhaps the volume was enough for a bottom. The Dow and S&P closed the day with a hammer and doji respectively. It should be noted, (bearish) gaps down override bullish candlestick patterns; a minor gain may occur Wednesday, but a run down to the hammer and doji lows would not be surprising. The semiconductor index emerged relatively unscathed which will help the NASDAQ and NASDAQ gain some footing.

There was a slight shift in relative strength with Small caps superseding Tech stocks, a bullish development {Large caps > Small caps > Tech indices}. The Russell 2000 didn't produce a bullish candlestick, even though it increased in relative strength to other indices. It could be another few days before the Russell 2000 finds its bottom.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] continued to leak points, pushing each deeper into cyclical bear market territory. The VXN and VIX spiked in line with a bottom, now it's up to the markets to deliver. SMA didn't suffer too much, but suffered enough to hit its stop.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: The day wasn't going to pass without some stop hits. AII performed well until Tuesday's losses undercut $9.59 support. The December 10th Subscriber pick closed for a 2% loss. HLEX gave up its breakout, but did enough by the close to hold the 200-day MA. However, the pick closed for a 6% loss. IRIS posted 7 days of losses to knock out the stop for a 13% loss. KG dropped back into its 4-month base. The stock recovered during the day, but hit its suggested stop for a 13% loss. NWPX experienced a wide intraday swing which knocked out the January 17th Subscriber pick for an 8% loss. PNW suffered four days of big losses to exit the November 6th pick for a 6% loss. SUNH's wide range day back-filled the gap and closed the January 10th Subscriber pick for a 6% loss. SMA held 50-day MA support on its wide range day and finished strong, but the suggested stop was hit for a 5% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 19th: Options expiration saw increased volume, but relatively little change to the indices. There were still losses in the markets, for the Russell 2000 in particular. But the semiconductor index was able to hold its ground. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] continue to drop into cyclical bear market, which makes an accurate bottom call more difficult given cyclical bull market lows have been violated. There is value in the markets, but it would take a brave soul to tolerate the declines. I maintain a bullish call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: AZZ had a wild day with a large intraday range. The day closed higher, but not before hitting its January 7th stop for a 12% loss. GORO was a Subscriber pick for October 25th, but early promise quicky faded and the stock closed with a 9% loss. KG hit its stop after a series of losses. The January 9th Subscriber pick racked up a 13% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 17th: Well, shorts made their appearance, but instead of covering they added to their positions. The indecision created by Thursday's doji gave way to firm selling, although volume dropped. This may be a mixed blessing; does it reflect seller's exhaustion? Or seller's apathy? The latter seems improbable, so the expectation would be for the former. The NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Dow and S&P followed the Russell 2000 with its break of August lows. The Russell 2000, which had held up well yesterday, gave way in strong selling to make a new closing low for the current decline. The NASDAQ suffered a "Death Cross" between its 50-day and 200-day MAs, following that of the Dow and Russell 2000. The Semiconductor index was the only index not to suffer significant declines, but can it hold firm if broader market selling continues?

Ironically, the best news for bulls could be the break of August lows - now that this is out of the way with bulls may think there is value in the market. Options expiration Friday, could be volatile - probably turn into a damp squib.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: ICO was a Subscriber pick for January 8th. Early gains quickly turned to losses, closing the play for a 7% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 16th: Markets experienced a big volume day, the sort of volume from which capitulations are made. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Dow and S&P finished on 'spinning top' or 'doji' candlesticks representing indecisiveness on the part of bulls and bears. The NASDAQ closed right on August support, but given the leading weakness in the Russell 2000 it is likely it will not hold this level for long. Ironically, the Russell 2000 had a respectable day and closed higher on the day. January lows also held as support for the Russell 2000. Semiconductors made a comeback of its own - all the more impressive in the light of Intel's disappointment. The hint of life in the latter two indices could be the positive spark this market needs. The question now is whether a rally of substance can develop from these indices? and then spread to the other indices? Thursday could see shorts reaching for the buy trigger.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: HAL bit the dust, the Free pick for January 14th closed for a 5% loss. FEED lost out on its second day of losses. The January 15th Subscriber pick closed for a 19% loss. CZZ also fell by the wayside. The January 10th Subscriber pick closed for an 8% loss. REXX couldn't tolerate four days of losses. The January 9th Subscriber pick closed for a 12% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 15th: Bears reentered the market on firm distribution. However, last week's lows were not violated on the decline, with the exception of the Dow which closed a couple of points below support (which in itself does not necessarily qualify it as a confirmed break, but it has little downward leeway to play with). The Dow has tested August lows, but it may end up following the Russell 2000 which long ago gave up such support. I am watching the semiconductor index for leads as it is the index which has suffered the most over the last 6 months and should be one of the first to recover given Technology is a traditional leading index from significant market bottoms. Tomorrow is another day.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: BBL was a Subscriber pick for January 14th, but the tight stop was enough to protect this from serious loss, closing for a 2% loss. CERN collapsed on heavy volume - losing both 50-day and 200-day MA support. The January 10th Subscriber pick closed for a 4% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 14th: Bulls countered Monday with a low volume advance on Friday's losses. Although Monday did not rank as an accumulation day, it did give some measure of support as it helped build a demand level for stocks (as defined by the range of the last five trading days). One shouldn't read too much into Monday's action given the relatively light volume, but it does beat another day of selling, something which the market couldn't have tolerated given the proximity of August support.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: CRMH's low liquidity was its downfall as the stock hit its stop. The stock failed to get out of the gates and closed for a 3% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 12th: At first appearance, Friday's action looked bad; the NASDAQ and Dow; registered almost 2% losses; a slightly greater than 2% loss occurred for the NASDAQ 100, semiconductor index, and Russell 2000; with only the S&P having a 'good' day with its 1.4% loss. However, the prior two days had seen decent gains and there is still room for another round of similar losses before indices test January lows. I still like the current round of action as a bottoming pattern. If there was a concern it was the complete lack of change in volatility, be it the VXN or VIX. Strong bottoms need a dose of fear to wash the weak hands out and curiously, for all the recent volume, we haven't seen this (yet) for either the NASDAQ or S&P. However, I maintain a bullish call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: PGI cut below 2-month support to cleanly slice its stop and 200-day MA. The October 22nd Subscriber pick promised much, but in the end only delivered an 11% loss. OMRI lost major ground on Friday as the 200-day MA turned into a memory. The November 5th Subscriber pick closed for a 9% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 10th: Today was less about short covering and more about bullish buying. The only index not to get much action was the semiconductor index which remained relatively unchanged by the close. The problem for bulls is the supply generated from 8 consecutive days of selling which preceded this micro-bounce. Friday could see some volatility, but don't be surprised if the day finishes flat as bulls and bears fight it out. On-balance-volume of the indices gives a good indication as to what is under accumulation (Dow and S&P) and what is not (NASDAQ), but this could easily change over the coming days as neither accumulation nor distribution is particularly strong. Ironically, "Death Crosses" (200-day MA > 50-day MA) for the Dow and S&P following those from the semiconductor index and Russell 2000 indicate the start of long term bearish declines. Only the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 cling to bullish relationships between their 50-day and 200-day MAs, but this is unlikely to last much longer.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are attempting to dig in, and although weak (and weakening) they are developing bullish divergences between the indicators themselves (see $NASI and $NAA50R) and the NASDAQ.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: OXY exited its stop before the stock found support at the 50-day MA. The December 24th Breakout play closed for a 5% loss; earlier plays for September 19th and August 21st (Subscriber only) closed for a 13% gain and 33% gain respectively. PZE crashed through its stop price following yesterday's downgrades. The December 31st Subscriber pick closed for a 15% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 9th: Bulls made a return to the game board, but there is much work to do to regain their lost position. Bullish piercing patterns on higher volume are clear bullish signals. The gains were enough to generate a bear trap for the Dow, but the gains finished right on resistance for the S&P. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 made their stand away from any clear support. These indices are likely to encounter supply at their 20-day MAs (the NASDAQ 100 could find alternate resistance at their 200-day MAs). Small caps (Russell 2000) dug in with a hammer/piercing pattern and is well positioned to challenge 736. Of the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ], the technicals of the Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) all switched into the red.

Wednesday's gains were as much about short covering as they were about value buying. Tomorrow will tell us more how much value buying there really is in the market.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: INFY shed 21% on the day, which knocked the January 7th Subscriber pick out for a 22% loss. SMHG drifted back towards its consolidation, knocking out the December 31st Subscriber pick for a 7% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 8th: Another whopper day of loses. This has already pushed some of the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] into cyclical bear territory, chiefly the Bullish percents ($BPCOMPQ). The most 'bullish' of these internals, the Summation index ($NASI) has room to fall - so this may not be the end of declines for the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 suffered most from their lack of nearby support. August lows are the next port of call for these averages. Both Large caps (Dow and S&P) lost support connecting August-November lows, a significant long(er) term bearish impact - look for this support level to reverse into resistance. However, given the deeply oversold short term picture I don't think this level will prove to be much resistance on the initial bounce. For small caps (Russell 2000) I have to look at the weekly chart to find the next probable support level. This looks to be June/July 2006 lows in the range 670-680. I would watch for a large head-and-shoulder reversal with a bounce off 680 back to 780, before the cyclical bear market takes off with a vengeance. As I have said before, small caps lead the markets - so what goes here will eventually migrate to the other indices.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 7th: Monday was to be the bulls great hope, but unfortunately the day fell flat on its face. Bulls were able to make some comeback by the close, but there were only minor gains for the Dow and S&P. Large caps (Dow and S&P) were able to dig in at support connecting August-November lows. Other indices were left away from any common support. Volume climbed to register another distribution day, sellers exhaustion must set in soon given the sequence of ever increasing down days. It was still too early to comment on the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ], but these likely closed down for the day and threatened to push these into cyclical bear market territory.

Target hit: GTRE was a Subscriber pick for November 6th and again as a free pick for December 17th. The former closed for a 56% gain, the latter a 40% gain.

Stop hit: TLCV drifted into its stop to close the January 2nd play for a sizable 18% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldJanuary 5th: The market experienced its first (of many?) large one day decline(s) for the New Year. Volume jumped to register a significant distribution day. There was additional technical damage done to the indices. The NASDAQ said 'goodbye' to November support, leaving a challenging distance to next support at 2,387. The Dow still has lingering support connecting August-November lows to aim for, but beyond that there is little to help it out. The S&P was able to finish bang on a similar support level - but stochastics are not oversold enough to suggest an immediate bounce. The NASDAQ 100 didn't even pause at its 200-day MA - slicing clean through. It too has a distance to run before reaching August support at 1,853. The semiconductor index added to its misery following the loss of 400 support, providing another layer of the weakness to the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. The loss of August and November support in the Russell 2000 is a good indication as to what is to come for the other indices; small caps traditionally lead market advances, and in this case, declines. Small cap action could best be described as "ugly!" and this will likely lead to similar action in Tech (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) and Large cap (Dow and S&P) markets.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] dropped down to December support levels; the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) kept inside its 30.8-35.3 range; the Nasdaq Percentage of Stocks above 50-day MA ($NAA50R) crept below its rising support from November-December and is only a couple of points above traditional bull market support (but some 10 points away from bear market support - action in this internal will be very important over the coming weeks, a break of 20 and the NASDAQ will be staring down the barrel of a cyclical bear market). Only the summation index ($NASI) kept some semblance of control with a minor decline. However, it is not in deep oversold territory which could present itself as further selling pressure for the NASDAQ.

Because of the (overall) oversold nature of the market internals I remain bullish for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook). In terms of relative strength, there was an additional pull to the bear side with Large caps now leading the market {Large caps > Tech > Small caps). Bears in control of both the short and long term outlook.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: UHT was a Subscriber pick for January 2nd, but was kicked out for a 6% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.January 3rd: Mild declines in price took a greater toll on supporting technicals. The NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 all saw 'sell' triggers in their MACDs, which for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 was enough to send all supporting technicals to the bearish side. Also taking a hit was the semiconductor index - falling ever further from former 400 support. The NASDAQ broke through its 200-day MA but finished close enough to the moving average to suggest it could still play a roll as support, much as it did in November and December. Large caps (Dow and S&P) maintained their status quo, but channel breakdowns hold.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.January 2nd: Bears welcomed the New Year in with a vengeance. Volume climbed significantly to register across the board distribution. There were few places for bulls to hide. In the NASDAQ there was some dig in support at the 200-day MA, but it wasn't the kind of buying which would suggest the moving average will hold. The Dow confirmed its channel break, bringing the S&P down with it. The Dow moving averages are rolling over into a pattern which suggests a more protracted decline lies ahead and a retest of November lows would perhaps be the next fight-and-stand point for bulls. Technicals too are weakening from neutral territory. The NASDAQ 100 did not escape unscathed, but at least has support to look too (namely the 200-day MA).

The real damage was done in the semiconductor index - cracking below 400 support, negating its CCI bullish divergence, and generating a MACD trigger 'sell'. This can only reflect badly on the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, the latter in particular. Not surprisingly, Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] all weakened to the extent the $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ trade below their 5-day EMA trigger lines. The $NASI is some 480 points from typical bottom territory, the $NAA50R 10 points from a likely bottom, with the $BPCOMPQ 4 points from a bull bottom or 24 from a bear bottom.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: AATI was a Breakout for December 24th, and September 19th; the former closed for a 10% loss, the latter for a 4% gain. CEVA was a Subscriber pick for December 19th but was exited at the intraday low for a 6% loss. WWY was a Subscriber pick for December 31st, but failed in its test of its 200-day MA. The stock closed for a 3% loss.

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