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Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Jan 31st: The Fed leaves rates unchanged and the Russell 2000 breaks 797 resistance (finally). It was set up to be a stronger close for the other markets, but large caps [Dow, and S&P] just trimmed enough by the close to leave them at resistance. This shouldn't take away from the broad sweep of higher volume buying and bulls can be well pleased with their efforts - but false breakouts have happened in the recent past and the indices will need to put some air between November-January congestion in order to pressure shorts to cover. The only index to not get an invite to the party was the semiconductor index.

The tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] also had a good day. The $BPCOMPQ worked on breaking its recent malaise; a break of 60 resistance would be key for supporting another leg of the rally. Its technicals lie all in the green. The $NAA50 posted a solid gain, moving towards October-January resistance. The supporting MACD trigger line finally broke its September-January bearish divergence (a new one may develop, but this is a step in the right direction).

Target hit: none

Stop hit: ACTC clipped its stop at the lows of the day, stumbling at 50-day and 200-day MA support. The January 11th Breakout play closed for a 28% loss - a common side effect of risky penny plays.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Jan 30th: Only the Russell 2000 made any move of note as it closed a point over 797 resistance. Unfortunately, none of the other indices followed suit so it remains to be seen if this is part of something more substantial, or just a blip on the markets.

The tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] inched another bullish step with a MACD trigger 'buy'. Other internals improved - but only to a small degree.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: IFF suffered a key loss following earnings, breaking below the 50-day MA. The stock featured as a Breakout for July 27th, August 8th, September 27th, December 15th, and January 24th. It also featured as a Subscriber pick for November 9th. The five breakout plays closed for a 33% gain, 30% gain, 24% gain, 1% gain, and a 3% loss. The Subscriber pick closed for a 3% gain. SOV rallied into its stop price, closing the September 15th Subscriber pick, November 13th Subscriber pick, and December 6th Subscriber pick for gains of 17% and 1% and a loss of 3%.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Jan 29th: Monday was like another Friday's snoozefest. Whereas Friday pointed to weak demand, Monday was all about weak supply. The NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Dow, S&P and Russell 2000 are all milling around their 20-day MAs, and in many cases, converged 50-day MAs, with the possible exception of the Dow. The 50-day MA is an important institutional trading area and the lack of response on either the buy or sell side is an indication of the market 'waiting' for something to happen. The next Fed meeting might be one such trigger - but I wouldn't hold your breath.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] swung back to the bullish side with an upside cross of the 5-day EMA in the $NAA50 and MACD 'buy' triggers in the $NASI and $BPCOMPQ. Internals are weak - but there is almost enough bullish upswing to see a rally to test October/November highs; if this was to happen I would look for a 1-2 month rally in the NASDAQ, with sympathy rallies in the other indices. I wouldn't view this rally as a major buying opportunity - perhaps a 40:60 equity:cash play, basically a stall before a larger down leg in the indices.

Target hit:

Stop hit: TU was a Subscriber play for today, but I set the stop a little tight and was stopped out for a small loss. The stock first featured for Subscribers on December 20th. Today's play closed for a 2% loss and the December pick for a 2% gain. XNPT featured for Subscribers on November 9th, but after months of steady deterioration it finally closed for an 11% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Jan 27th: Last week covered all the bases as Friday turned in a low volume, flat day. The week as a whole failed to say anything about how the November-January sideways channels will break in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000. Large caps [Dow, and S&P] kept their rallies intact, but these indices can't be expected to keep the overall market bubbling along at a solid rate. The semiconductor index managed a close above its 200-day MA, placing it well inside its prior bull channel after an earlier break of support. The Russell 2000 closed on a bullish piercing pattern - but the pattern is weak given it occurred when intermediate term [39,1] and short term [14,3] stochastics are in neutral territory.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] also changed little on the week, although there is a pending 'buy' signal in the MACD of the $BPCOMPQ as it parent indicator whipsaws around its 5-day MA - directionless. The $NAA50 remained contained inside its consolidation, but lies closer to support than resistance.

Lots of hullaballoo for the week, but the sideways patterns in play for the markets continues. I am still favoring a downward break from such patterns and so hold to my bearish outlook for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: LEN/B hit its January 22nd stop after it retraced from its breakout. The stock featured earlier as a Subscriber pick for November 15th. The latter pick closed for a 7% gain and the former Breakout play for a 3% loss.

Model fundament/technical portfolio: NTRI out.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Jan 25th: Good ol' fashioned buying from Wednesday was followed with good ol' fashioned selling Thursday. The funny thing about it was none of this changed the larger picture of November-January sideways channels for many of the indices. Large caps [Dow, and S&P] may have been stung by the reversal of the 'picture perfect breakout' from Wednesday, both both still hold to well defined up channels. Tech [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] and small caps [Russell 2000] still have work to do to define their eventual market direction given these are the indices with the strongest channel resistance boundaries (the Russell 2000 has the strongest resistance at 797).

Oh... the $NAA50 flipped back to a bearish cross of its 5-day EMA - but did so inside the boundaries of its 4-month consolidation.

Target hit: CG was a Breakout pick for November 16th and reached its target for a 11% gain.

Stop hit: ABI fell back into the 'thin air' of its Breakout gap. The January 9th Subscriber pick closed for a 3% loss. ZIGO also clipped its stop - but finished on a bullish doji at the 200-day MA, closing the January 10th Subscriber pick for a 5% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Jan 24th: When the market moves it has been the large caps [Dow, and S&P] which have led. The S&P had a picture perfect day if you are a bull, with a convincing break of resistance on higher volume. The Dow observed a similar break of resistance, but didn't have the volume to match. Both tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] supported higher volume gains to register an accumulation day for each index, but having peaked a couple of weeks ago I have raised the bar for resistance to 2,500 for the NASDAQ and 1,850 for the NASDAQ 100. TraderMike was more positive on NASDAQ and Russell 2000 action and had noted full stochastics [5,3] triggered a 'buy' signal in each index. The stochastics I measure ([39,1] and the more traditional [14,3]) just dipped below the bullish mid-line and are best considered neutral. I would consider Russell 2000 net neutral as it remained contained by 797 resistance, although it did enjoy a MACD trigger 'buy' and bullish crosses in trend strength [+DI >-DI] and slow stochastics [39,1]. Wednesday's higher volume action may have been attributed to short covering following failed breakouts in the tech averages [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100], but for large caps [Dow, and S&P] I would treat it as a good ol' fashioned buying.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] gained to the extent there were bullish crosses in the 5-day EMAs of $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ. But the larger weaker technical picture remains.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: none

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Jan 23rd: Bulls gathered their composure to post some higher volume gains for the NASDAQ and S&P. The NASDAQ finished on a 'bullish harami cross'/'inverted hammer' candlestick combo, but given the neutral position of short term [14,3] and intermediate term [39,1] slow stochastics I would not consider the day's action a sure thing for the bulls. The semiconductor index struggled below bullish flag support, like the NASDAQ it finished with a 'bullish harami cross'/'inverted hammer' candlestick combo - except both short [14,3] and long [39,1] term stochastics for this index are oversold giving greater impetus for bullish support as provided by these candlesticks. Unfortunately, technicals of the NASDAQ failed to improve and the NASDAQ 100 even went as far to turn its MACD, on-balance-volume, trend strength and stochastics into red bearish territory. The Russell 2000 now outperforms the tech averages [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100]; a more bullish alignment for the markets {Large caps > Small caps > Tech averages}. However, the Russell 2000 remains caught inside its November-January trading range with resistance at 797 and support at 770. Finally, large caps [Dow, and S&P] made modest returns against Monday's losses.

Target hit: URME shot to its target (although opened higher than my listed price) to close the January 16th Subscriber pick for a 53% gain.

Stop hit: IMA closed on a bullish hammer, but not before it hit its raised stop during intraday trading. The August 3rd Breakout closed for a 16% gain and the January 12th play for a 6% loss. NMGC fell back into its stop after posting early gains (18%). The December 4th play closed for a 16% loss. IRS was a Subscriber pick for November 21st and a Breakout for December 18th. It too finished on a bullish hammer, closing the Subscriber pick for a 3% gain and the Breakout for a 7% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Jan 22nd: On a point basis it was an ugly day for the bulls, but the lighter volume took the sting out of the losses. It didn't prevent some further deterioration in the technicals. Notably, MACD 'sell' triggers in the NASDAQ, Dow, NASDAQ 100 and S&P. Also in the Dow was a sell trigger in on-balance-volume. These triggers have resulted in a redrawing of the various bearish divergence lines in these indices. Other technical switches were a bearish crossover in trend strength in the S&P [-DI > +DI] and a break of the bullish mid-line of intermediate term slow stochastics [39,1].

The tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] also suffered with a 'sell' trigger in the $NAA50 MACD (and a redrawing of its bearish divergence). The $NAA50 is on the verge of losing support connecting November and December lows, which means fewer stocks supporting the rally (and don't expect the semiconductor index to help out).

Target hit: none

Stop hit: CRESY was a Subscriber feature for January 4th. The stock suffered heavy losses to cleave its stop for a 5% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Jan 21st: The week closed with confirmed bull traps in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000. But the net effect was to leave these indices back inside prior congestion levels, which marks a neutral close for the week. The concern for bulls at this stage would be for further weakness through support of November-January channels attracting a new slew of sellers to pile into the breach. Such price action would favor tests of the 200-day MAs, or put another way, an additional decline of up to 8% for these indices. The semiconductor index made modest gains, but Friday's close was not enough to regain the prior bull channel and the index closed below its 200-day MA. Large caps [Dow, and S&P] finished the week holding the bulk of their gains as the MACD bearish divergence of the Dow was breached to the upside. The S&P has yet to challenge its MACD divergence.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] were unable to recover the damage issued on Thursday. As internals struggle, the rally on which strong internals are dependent will face increased difficulty. Because of this I have stuck with my bearish call in the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: CROX finished on a doji, but not before the stock gapped down at the open. This hit the January 17th Breakout stop price - the stock still has support at the 50-day MA to look forward too - but for my purposes is considered a stop hit exit. The stock first featured as a Breakout for September 26th and again for October 11th. It made a late appearance for Subscribers on January 9th. The three Breakout plays closed for a 48% gain, 33% gain, and a 5% loss respectively. The Subscriber pick closed for a 6% gain. LCC clipped its most recent stop as it found support at the 50-day MA. The stock featured as a Subscriber pick for September 11th and again as a Breakout for October 23rd and January 12th. The Subscriber pick closed for a 39% gain and the two Breakouts for a 15% gain and a 6% loss respectively. PLAB clipped its stop just above support of the 200-day MA. The December 7th Subscriber pick for a 3% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click HereJan 18th: Today showed how vulnerable the market is when the baby steps get squashed by larger feet. The tentative bullish developments in the tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] took a whopping; the $BPCOMPQ crossed below its 5-day EMA as bearish trend strength inched over bullish trend strength [-DI > +DI but with ADX in decline this is a weak signal]; the $NAA50 lost all of its gains to move back towards support, negating the breakout of the bearish divergence in the ultimate oscillator (= new bearish divergence drawn for this indicator), losing bullish trend strength [-DI > +DI, ADX <20 = weak, but still bearish], and stochastics below the bullish 50-line; finally the $NASI gave back its bullish cross of the 5-day EMA, although bullish signals in the ultimate oscillator and MACD held.

Only the large caps [Dow, and S&P] shrugged off the malaise. The semiconductor index took the brunt of the selling to break below both 20-day and 50-day MAs, as well as bullish flag support - this index is in real trouble. Weakness in the semiconductor index spelled the end of the breakouts in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. Luckily, both these indices have support at the 50-day MA, but the second distribution day in a row for these indices gives the initiative to the bears. Finally, the Russell 2000 fell deep into its prior consolidation. The index having failed to break through 797 resistance - the next test of 770 support will be critical. Should support fail it will likely mean a fall back to the 200-day MA currently at 740.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: A number of plays met their demise. PCLN was a Breakout feature for September 25th, October 4th, December 21st and January 11th. Each of the plays closed for a 23% gain, 16% gain, flat, and for a 3% loss. ASML never made it out of the gate. Yesterday's Subscriber pick closed for a 4% loss buy may yet find support at the breakout gap ($24.25). ATNI slammed through its stop although The Street.com had some positive things to say about the stock in an afterhours release. The January 4th Subscriber pick closed for a 6% loss. PENN clipped its stop after it gave back January's breakout. The December 19th Subscriber play closed for a 1% gain and the January 17th play for a 2% loss. SOV gapped below its stop price and 50-day MA. The stock most recently featured as a Subscriber pick for October 19th.

Newsletter, Members Click HereJan 17th: Volume picked up to the downside, registering a distribution day for the likes of the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Dow, and S&P. However, the damage was not significant enough to reverse any of last week's breakouts. Indeed, the Dow was still able to gain enough to trigger a breakout from its MACD bearish divergence. Unfortunately, the semiconductor index drifted below its 50-day MA to close on its 20-day MA; a minor break but the index will need to catch a bid if it is not to drift into more dangerous territory (for bulls).

Again, the tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] saw the most action as the bearish divergences of the $NAA50 ultimate oscillator and stochastics broke to the upside. At the same time the $NASI registered a 'buy' trigger in its MACD and ultimate oscillator. These are modest gains, but are at least a step in the right direction if you are a bull.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: VCP hit its stop after gapping down below its 50-day MA on earnings news. The stock featured as a Breakout for September 20th, October 31st, and December 28th; each closing for a 9% gain, flat, and for a 7% loss.

Model fundamental/technical portfolio: COH sold.

Newsletter, Members Click HereJan 16th: The indices did little but there were some big changes in the tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ]. The $BPCOMPQ switched back to a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA as its supporting ultimate oscillator develops a small bullish divergence - the first sign internals are turning more significantly positive. Short term stochastics [14,3] are also improving although intermediate term stochastics [39,1] are in decline. The $NAA50 lost a couple of points but there was an important break of 5-month resistance in the MACD bearish divergence. Look for an additional resistance break in the bearish divergence of the ultimate oscillator and slow stochastics. Improved internals will stretch last weeks Tech market breakouts a little further and keep current open positions chugging along.

Of the indices, the semiconductor index lost its resistance breakout, bringing it back into December congestion. However, the index trades above its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs - until these break the trend remains up. No other index made a significant move, although the Russell 2000 reversed off a test of 797 resistance.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: PTNR hit its stop after a rapid sell off in morning trading. The stock recovered some of the damage as it found support at the 50-week MA. The October 19th Breakout play closed for a 10% gain and the January 12th play for a 4% loss. An earlier July 28th Subscriber pick closed for a 27% gain. RDWR was a failed breakout from December 4th as it hit its stop on a test of the 50-day MA. The play closed for a 3% loss, although an alternative stop would be a 1% break of the 50-day MA. APNS was a penny play which eventually ran into its stop price two months after it featured as a Subscriber play. The November 14th Subscriber pick closed for a 26% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click HereJan 14th: The long weekend likely contributed to the lower volume traded on Friday, but all-in-all it was a good week for the bulls. Solid breakouts in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Dow, and S&P have reinstated the bull market and put some pressure on the weak technical pictures supporting these indices. Chief of which were the across the board MACD bearish divergences - now pressurized by NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 MACD trigger 'buy' signals, and resistance test for the Dow. The Russell 2000 was the only index not to break to new highs, but it is moving in the right direction after reversing its break down through the 20-day and 50-day MAs. The semiconductor index also recovered from its unusual one-day reversal in the face of broad gains for the Tech averages [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100].

Unfortunately, tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] remain weak with a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA in the $NASI and upswing in the $NAA50 the best thing to come out of Friday's action; the latter at least went some way to presurring (but not breaking) bearish divergences in the supporting MACD and Ultimate Oscillator. Volatility is in the process of backtesting wedge support (former resistance) and looks set to rise once more - spicing up the action over the coming week.

I remain bearish for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll - the market may be up, but decent individual stocks are hard to come by.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: none

Newsletter, Members Click HereJan 11th: It was more of a mixed day than I had initially thought. It was a great day for the NASDAQ as it surged past channel resistance (Nov-Jan) on heavier volume, the third such day of heavier volume buying in a row. The move followed yesterday's MACD 'buy' trigger. This index is making a good attempt at blowing away the holiday cobwebs. The NASDAQ 100 also enjoyed a channel resistance break, but it did this on lower volume, but at least supporting technicals improved. The odd man out was the semiconductor index; although this index made a bull flag breakout on Wednesday and was the best performing index that day, on the day the Tech averages [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] break, it actually closed lower. The original breakout still stands (just), but it was strange not to see some follow through given all the buying in (supposed) Tech stocks?

The other indices had more low key days. CNBC were back touting the Dow breakout, but in the end it only limped in with a 15 point advantage over resistance, and its partner large cap index, the S&P, wasn't able to break resistance at all (but did post a gain on higher volume). The Russell 2000 was able to reverse its recent breakdown - pushing the index back into December congestion - but there is still much work to do.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] saw another bullish cross of the 5-day EMA in the $NAA50; but the indicator remains inside a 3-month consolidation. The MACD of the $NAA50 did trigger a 'buy' - so there was something more than the usual whipsaw signal, although the 5-month bearish divergence still holds for the MACD trigger line. No reason to get too excited.

Not sure what to make of it all. On paper - the NASDAQ did post a technical breakout and therefore is a buying opportunity. But with tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] closer to overbought territory I am not sure there is the groundswell of support for another 6-month rally. I know these internals will reach oversold levels once more (and will be a signal to 'buy') - but where the market will be at this time is still anyone's guess.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: NWD hit its stop at the intraday low, but was still able to close on a bullish doji at the 200-day MA. Disappointed not to have seen this one advance. The December 19th Subscriber play closed for an 11% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click HereJan 10th: The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 managed higher volume pushes towards resistance, registering an accumulating day with a MACD trigger 'buy' signal in the NASDAQ following the earlier 'buy' trigger from the NASDAQ 100. It was a good day for Tech as the semiconductor index also enjoyed the party with all four supporting technical indicators bullish after an upside break from the bull flag. Wednesday's action was a confirmed follow through to New Year's buying - but all eyes will be on Nov-Jan channel resistance.

The S&P was the only index not to post a higher volume gain, leaving Large caps [Dow and S&P] as a sideline show to Tech gains. The Russell 2000 was little different. Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] made small gains (but not the $NASI, which continued to fall) - but not enough to change anything.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: ANDR not surprisingly was a penny stock to hit its stop, but did on low volume and found support at the 200-day MA. However none of this changes the fact the stock closed with a 35% loss (such was the risk attached to such a low priced stock) - the highest closing loss for any pick since I started doing the list in 2004 (however - this doesn't include a couple of open positions which have greater losses).

Newsletter, Members Click HereJan 9th: Although I am pure PC player the new Apple iPhone looks real nice, but I wouldn't be surprised if Cingular spoiled the party/experience? Not that AAPL buyers cared (the weekly chart has a lovely cup-and-handle pattern). Back to the market - which really had little to add over recent days. Volume climbed in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 as AAPL and associated plays PALM and RIMM swapped returns. There was no channel break in either index. The Russell 2000 posted the second of two candlestick "hammers" but remains caught below its 20-day and 50-day MAs. Large caps [Dow and S&P] were unchanged.

The tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] didn't waiver from their downward trends all losing small amounts against the small gains in the markets.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: IDT reversed its breakout but was able to close on the 50-day MA, but not before the January 4th Breakout play hit its stop price for a 5% loss. An earlier October 18th Subscriber play closed flat. VIMC was another stock to lose its breakout, but did so 3-months after the fact, mustering gains as high as 24% at one point; the September 20th play eventually closed for a 12% loss. FLWS was a Subscriber pick for December 13th. The stock was able to make a positive test of 200-day MA but in the process hit the original stop I had set for a 3% loss. TMX suffered its third day of losses to cleanly slice its December 8th Subscriber stop and 50-day MA for a 5% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click HereJan 8th: No great shakes by end of day although there was a higher degree of buying in individual stocks than there had been since November. Whether this reflects itself in the broader market remains to be seen, but the market picture from Friday carried over to Monday. Volume declined - further weakening the significance of the modest gains posted in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Dow, S&P, and Russell 2000. In contrast, the three tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] all declined, another rally knock on Death's door.

Where there was some technical improvement was an up-tick in on-balance-volume of the NASDAQ (a very small up-tick!), and a bullish MACD 'buy' trigger in the NASDAQ 100 (this is better). However, this should be tempered by a negation of the resistance breakout of the ultimate oscillator in the $NAA50 and a break of the 'buy; trigger in the ultimate oscillator of the $BPCOMPQ. Until the internals improve I wouldn't be looking for big gains in either the NASDAQ or NASDAQ 100.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: C hit its December 28th stop price, but found support at the 20-day MA. If you are still holding I would perhaps give the trade another 1% as it closed on a bullish engulfing pattern. For my purposes the December 28th Breakout play closed for a 4% loss and the earlier December 11th Subscriber play for a 5% gain. CGI failed to get off the ground as the Subscriber pick posted a second hammer candlestick with lows below that of the prior day (for traders buying the break of the hammer highs - the trade would not have executed). The trade registers as a 2% loss. RIG was another to break the lows of its bullish harami cross. This trade failed to move and closed the Subscriber pick for Monday on a 2% loss. UPFC closed on a bullish harami at the 50-day MA, but in process it reversed a breakout and hit its stop price to close the December 28th Subscriber pick for an 11% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click HereJan 7th: Well, if Thursday belonged to the Bulls and Friday to the Bears, it was Wednesday which took the plaudits for the week. Wednesday’s huge intraday range failed to break by the weeks close, bar in the Russell 2000, so it is hard to draw any conclusion. The Russell 2000 is in trouble, losing the 50-day MA and near term support, to kick off a new downtrend. In terms of relative strength, Small caps now lag Tech and Large caps - a more bearish alignment {Tech Indices > Large caps > Small caps}. It is looking more likely we will see a test of the 200-day MA for the Russell 2000. The NASDAQ 100, the other struggling index, was able to hold the 20-day and 50-day MAs. The NASDAQ also holds these averages. The Dow closed on the 20-day MA and even though the S&P gave up support at this average and confirmed a break of its rising channel it still has the 50-day MA to look forward too.

Supporting tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] haven't indicated any stall to the decline. The MACD, ultimate oscillator, short term stochastics [14,3] and now bullish trend strength (-DI > +DI) of the $BPCOMPQ all favor further weakness for an indicator which has wavered little since the start of December. The $NAA50 had given sparks of life but the indicator measuring the number of Nasdaq stocks over the 50-day MA made a bearish cross of its 5-day EMA which jeopardizes the break of resistance in the ultimate oscillator and the MACD trigger 'buy' signal (both weak bull signals - but each had the potential to turn into something better - this is looking less likely now). The $NASI (Nasdaq Summation index) has been in decline since November and bearish strength in this indicator has been increasing all the time. All three indicators favor a bigger decline in the parent NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100.

As for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll I remain bearish (which, I have been since September 23rd). Based on current action I am looking to April as a potential reaction bottom and a time to turn bullish - but time will tell. Keep the bulk of your reserves in cash and play small with any money you wish to expose to the market.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: UTF hit its most recent stop after a decent run. The utility fund first featured as a Subscriber pick for May 25th and as a Breakout for June 30th and again for July 20th, September 1st, November 17th and December 13th. The Subscriber pick closed for a 25% gain and the Breakout plays for a 17% gain, 14% gain, 7% gain, 2% gain and a 2% loss. Subscriber pick BPT featured for October 19th and November 16th. The two plays closed for a flat gain and a 3% loss respectively. FMT gapped into its stop, ending the November 10th Subscriber pick for a 7% loss. NVD hit its stop after a promising start. The December 18th play closed for a 9% loss.

Model fundamental/technical portfolio: TGA sold.

Newsletter, Members Click HereJan 4th: The problem with days like Wednesday is that any buying or selling which follows will be 'swamped' by the earlier wide range bar. Today was no exception. Strength in the NASDAQ and to lesser extent, NASDAQ 100, was contained by Wednesday's highs. However, the NASDAQ 100 was able to push above its 50-day and 20-day MA - reducing the bearish sentiment which was overhanging the index after it had lost the 50-day MA. The semiconductor index was not to be left out as it corrected off bullish flag support. Large caps [Dow and S&P] and Small caps [Russell 2000] didn't change a whole lot.

There was a shift in relative strength (in favor of the bulls) as Tech Indices > Small caps > Large caps. The other change came in the tech market internal, the $NAA50, which while contained by its declining wedge was able to break the bearish divergence in its Ultimate Oscillator - another step in the recovery of its technicals following the earlier MACD trigger 'buy'.

Overall, there was a slow improvement in the indices and supporting technicals - but not enough to suggest the recent malaise was cured.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: CKH suffered its second day of heavier volume losses to run into its most recent stop price. The stock featured as a Subscriber pick for September 26th, October 11th, and November 7th and as a Breakout for December 7th. The former Subscriber picks closed for a 17% gain, 11% gain and 2% gain, while the Breakout play closed for a 3% loss. CPB hit its stop as the stock made a small gap down at the open. The stock featured as a Breakout for May 23rd and as a Subscriber pick for December 1st. The former closed for a 14% gain and the latter closed flat. TRP was a recent Subscriber pick for December 21st as it sold off on heavier volume for a 3% loss. TLEO was another play to gap into its stop price but did find support at the 50-day MA. However, for my purposes the November 20th Subscriber pick and the December 15th Breakout play closed for a 2% and a 7% loss respectively. FELE clipped its stop after a couple of months of sideways trading. The August 31st Subscriber pick closed for a 4% gain and the October 6th play for a 9% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click HereJan 3rd: It looked on paper to be a non-event by the days close, but there was plenty of action for the first day of trading for the New Year. Fear spiked as volatility took a large step towards 200-day MA resistance. Volatility expressed itself as wide range bars in all indices to the extent that one days worth of action more or less covered the entire 6-week range of the sideways channel in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. Volume soared for the first day of 2007, but given the little net change in the indices this should be considered bearish (until the day's highs are taken out - then all this volume switches to bullish holders and wannabe short coverers).

The NASDAQ 100 suffered to the extent that it failed to close above its 50-day MA - having cleared both it and its 20-day MA in early day trading. The semiconductor index followed suit by closing below its 50-day MA, testing the 200-day MA in the process. The 200-day MA looks the most likely test for the NASDAQ 100. The NASDAQ lingers around its 50-day MA. Large caps [Dow and S&P] were little changed as the S&P held on to its rising channel and the Dow closed a few points below 12,500. Small caps [Russell 2000] were able to close the day above their 50-day MA, but technically, remain weak.

Technically, there was little change. The market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] whipped around their 5-day EMA's but there wasn't any broader change to report.

What does all this mean? Certainly the wide spread on the day' action swamped much of December's holiday trading. Wednesday's high/lows are a boundary to mark resistance/support. Depending on how this breaks will decide if the huge volume which accompanied Wednesday can be considered demand or supply. As for individual stocks, check out my Spreadsheet to see where I stand on current active picks. November and December have seen some shaky action in the NASDAQ 100, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. Combined with the weak technical picture in these indices it looks like the actual top is playing out for these indices. Large caps [Dow and S&P] still look healthy and if you are still playing the bullish side of the market then this is where your attention should be. However, if markets take a big step back from here then I would look to April as the time to start buying again - this is when a reaction low should be in place.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: IHS did hit its stop - no tick error this time. The stock featured as a Breakout for September 25th, October 6th, November 15th, and December 5th; each play closed for a 15% gain, 11% gain, 4% gain and a 2% loss. ACTS hit its stop on Friday, closing below the 50-day MA and into its November 22nd Subscriber stop for an 8% loss.

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