| Note:
Not all stock links will work as some of the aforementioned stocks
have been removed from my public list.
Jan 30th: We
are back staring down at the 200-day moving averages after Friday's
losses, although we may have a 'sell-the-rumor-buy-the-news' following
the relatively peaceful Iraqi elections - watch . futures for
leads. Energies are
likely to suffer on this. Tests of the 200-day averages will set
up nice bullish divergences in the technicals and provide an excellent
long side play. The semiconductor index
played to form and revesed off its 20-day moving average. If it
can reclaim this level next week it will set up the tech indices
[ NASDAQ,
and NASDAQ
100] very nicely. Friday was a day of distribution for the Dow and S&P,
but if Friday's highs are breached all of this volume will be in
the green and mark new support (or demand driven by short covering).
Monday will be interesting.
Individual stocks to watch: Gold
issues continue to mark a bottom. There may be one brief
leg down but support looks to be in place. ISLE is
sitting at support of a descending triangle - a loss of which
sets up a move to $19.00. MYGN is
just hanging on to its breakout - watch for the reaction at long
term support (the rising blue hashed line just below the 50-day
moving average). ONEI bounced
on light volume - such rapid one-day gains from a base tend to
be bearish. Resistance at the 20- and 50-day moving average make
buys here risky. RATE looks
to working through its bullish flag - watch the 20-day moving
average as the bounce point. TOA has
held its breakout of $26.50, watch for test of $29.16. CSCO and FIX look
to have confirmed breakdowns following their failures to regain
prior support on their respective bounces [CSCO is an aggressive
short - but if futures are up I would hold out a little longer].
Watch NT for
a double bottom - $3.05 marks support. QCOM closed
inside its lower BB band after previously closing outside the
bands. Friday's small hammer sets up a low risk entry to the
20-day moving average (mid-BB band), CNTY may
have breached a rising flag - take partial (or all) profits if
long. CRIS has
tested long term trendline and 200-day moving support on low
volume - aggressive buy with stops on a loss of $4. Another stock
testing trendline support is IIIN,
although the 200-day moving average remains some $3 off Friday's
close. NOOF closed
strong on Friday - a break of $9.70 is an excellent long side
play.
Breakout failures: ANSI didn't
last a day as a breakout. CRIS featured
on Dec 3rd although it did
manage to a 33% gain at its highs before it reversed. HLEX featured
on Nov 24th and Jan
11th hit its higher stop after a sharp intraday stop shakeout
Firday. TUES never
recovered from its gap down - the stock featured last July.
Breakout targets met: none
Jan 27th: After
hour earnings from Microsoft looks
set to boost markets tomorrow, although markets ended the day
flat, unable to build on morning strength (dojis - i.e. equal
open and
closing values imply indecision). The next couple of days could
see tests of the 20-day moving averages in the various markets,
but I think the markets still need a more robust test of the
200-day moving averages. If the markets can't gain on what will
likely
be a gap up tomorrow it will be abother tick in the bear column.
The semiconductor index
is up against resistance of the 20-day moving average, it failed
the test at the start of the year, will it do so again? Secondary
indicators, other than the $NAA50,
provide cold comfort to the bulls as they continue downwards.
Breakout failures: none
Breakout targets met: none
Jan 26th: Better
volume, but markets limped higher on a relative scale to Monday's
selling. This level of suspicion may bode well for the markets
if it can continue tomorrow. The further we climb, the more edgy
sidelines folk will be if they fear missing the next rally. At
this stage one should look for move in the NASDAQ, S&P,
and NASDAQ
100 to former channel support which lurks where the 20- and
50- day moving averages sit now. Upward moves in the tech averages
will be supported by a move to resistance in the semiconductor index
downward channel (around 415). The Dow sits
at aggressive short territory - although the oversold nature
of the technicals makes such a play risky. The Russell
2000 perhaps looks the best to rally from here. It lies closest
to its 20-day moving average, a breach of which should be good
for a move to the upper Bollinger band. The $NAA50 was
the first secondary indicator to reverse. When all three secondary
indicators turn green it will be time to start fishing for some
more breakouts - as things stand now, breakout plays remain a
vulnerable commodity.
Breakout failures: VISG featured
on Dec 1st. Its rally to $9.94
fell $0.40 short of its target, instead it spiralled down to hit
its stop at $6.98. This brings the total number of breakout failures
for December to 41 with only 2 successes.
Breakout targets met: none
Jan 25th:
The relief rally is in its early days, but volume does not inspire
confidence. Traders look to have jumped the gun on the 200-day
moving average so we will see if others join the party. Collectively,
the NASDAQ, NASDAQ
100, and Russell
2000 ended on bullish 'harami
crosses'. The Dow enjoyed
a low volume rally but still has plenty of work to do. The S&P ended
the day with a inverse hammer on heavier volume. Reversal candlesticks
only have siginificance when markets are oversold and markets
are heavily oversold. The fly in the ointment remains the secondary
indicators, the $BPCOMPQ and $NASI declined
while the $NAA50 ended
the day flat.
Breakout failures: CCBI featured
on August 19th but lost out
after months of sideways action. CPTH featured
on December 30th. NCRX featured
on December 2nd. TTN featured
on Jan 24th cut its stop
but finished strong.
Breakout targets met: none
Jan 24th:
More of the same. The Iraq elections combined with 200-day moving
average watching has few willing to tip their toes into the water.
Technicals are now heavily oversold in all markets - it is not
unusual for markets to stay oversold (or overbought) for a period
of time, but a sharp reaction bounce looks ready to emerge. Tomorrow's
open could be interesting, if the market is rising after the
first half hour of trading tomorrow it would be a buy with stops
at the
lowest of low of Monday/Tuesday. I have provided gold members
with three stocks trading at their 200-day moving averages - should
the markets take off at this average then stocks trading at this
level should benefit. Secondary market indicators [$BPCOMPQ, $NAA50 and $NASI]
remain very weak (and weakening), so the bounce when it comes
should be followed by a retest of the lows as a firm bottom is
put in
place.
Breakout failures: CSTR featured
on June 3rd, Sep
22nd, and Nov 1st. The
stock left behind at triple top at $27, falling to hit the Nov
1st stop. The suggested target price was $32.20. BIZ collapsed
throguh support. FFIV featured
on Jan 21st. hit the tight
stop I had set for it just below support. INTD featured
on Jan 3rd.
Breakout targets met: none
Jan 23rd: Market
pulled no surprises on Friday - continuing the early year downtrend.
Volume in the tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] eased but that was little consolation to any bulls last
week. The Dow was
less fortunate, completing the third of a "three
black crow" sequence on heavier volume (= distribution).
A similar situation developed in the S&P but
without the distribution seen in the Dow -
not that this makes things any better. The 200-day moving average
ticks ever closer for these indices and I would be surprised to
see buyers step in much before this important support (even for
non-technical orientated investors). Are there positives out there?
Slow stochastics in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100 have reached levels which marked the August bottom, we
could be looking at a couple of days of sideways action as the
market digests its losses. I have redrawn the downward channel
of the semiconductor index,
and if true then now is new support. The index is well positioned
for a bounce which favors mild bullish action for the tech indices.
Just as the Russell
2000 missed forming a bullish set of three white candlesticks,
so has it somewhat prevented a situation found in the Dow with
only modest losses on Friday. But it still has plenty of work to
do to mark a bottom. The measured move to the 200-day moving average
still looks favored here.
So it looks like we are back
looking at gold, silver, and oil plays. Certainly there is value
in beat down precious metal stocks like CDE, BGO, GSS (the
first precious metal play to turn all technicals back into green), KGC,
base silver,
and SSRI.
Keep an eye on the energy plays SWN, EGY, IVAN,
penny stock BCON,
the frontpage breakout play CNR illustrated
below, and beat down HEC.
Other plays to watch next week
include ARIA which
left a bear trap following Friday's reversal of Thursday's losses. CRY which
is pressuring triangle resistance. IMAX which
continues to fly in the face of a weak market, small bullish pennant
here. ISLE which
is coiling nicely on low volume - note tight bollinger bands, this
will move big soon. RATE has
consolidated into a bullish flag - one of the few performers out
of my breakout plays. GIGM ended
Friday on a bullish hammer (one of my own stocks), as is ONEI which
has also performed well in its retreat from its highs (in my ROTH).
For the brave, ARBA sits
at support of the 200-day moving average with earnings on Jan 31st.
If you are looking for information in these stocks use the "Search
site" feature in my menu bar.
Breakout failures: KFY featured
on Dec 9th. LMRA featured
on Oct 19th.
Breakout targets met: none
Jan 20th:
Today's declines continued the earnings season maliase. Delta
threw its weight behind the glum with its $2.2
billion Q4 chump change loss. Companies seem to be scrambling
over themselves to post the worst results possible. Yesterday's
comments still stand with respect to downward targets. Some of
the Fall breakouts are starting to reach their stop prices as
the Santa rally melts into history. Sidelines remain the safest
place
to be after Tuesday's false start.
Breakout failures: ROP featured
on October 8th. SUNH featured
on December 28th.
Breakout targets met: none
Jan 19th: Whatever
good work the markets put in yesterday was whipped away today.
Don't expect much joy tomorrow after Ebay's
'little' disappointment. The bullish harami's in the tech markets
[NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] were reversed, ending the day below support of their
respective rising trendline channels. Adding insult to injury,
volume came
in higher - marking a day of distribution for each market. The NASDAQ
100 has managed a sequence of four such days without an inkling
of an accumulation day. One need only look to the tumbling semiconductor index
to see why. The Russell
2000 reversed half of what was almost a three
white soldier pattern. The Dow which
fluttered up yesterday, lightly fluttered down today and remained
within its recent congestion. The S&P reversed
most of yesterday's gains, the consolation was the lower volume.
The light at the end of the tunnel came in the shape of the secondary
indices. The $BPCOMPQ actually
ticked up. The $NAA50 turned
down off new resistance, but technicals (notably slow stochastics)
rose. The $NASI remains
in decline, having reacted little to last weeks sideways market
action.
Should the markets follow on
down tomorrow, then we will be looking at measured moves to complete
the pullback. For the NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100 I would look to the 200-day moving averages, as closely
approximate a measured move from January highs. For the Dow this
will be 10,246 (support of the broadening wedge and the point of
intersection with former resistance, now support, of last years
declining channel). The Russell
2000 measured move also falls close to its 200-day moving average.
The S&P has
no obvious support level for the measured move (c1,152) - so look
to the other indices for leads here. For now, stay on the sidelines
(or play aggressive shorts - the Russell
2000 probably looking the weakest here).
Breakout failures: CIEN featured
on Dec 23rd.
Breakout targets met: none
Jan 18th: The
tech markets [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] closed higher following Friday's bullish haramis - the
buy signal coming on the close above the bullish harami highs.
The main concern was the lighter volume - it would be good to
see some higher volume tomorrow. Secondary indices improved,
the $NAA50 marked
an intermediate buy signal - but the $NASI and $BPCOMPQ still
have some work to do. Only the S&P managed
to rack an accumulation day and should be good to test the tweezer
top highs. The Russell
2000 is two thirds of the way to forming a bullish three
white soldier pattern. The Dow closed
near the highs of last week's consolidation but still could go
either way.
Breakout failures: IMNR featured
on Dec 23rd.
Breakout targets met: none
Jan 15th:
The first week of earnings was surprisingly uneventful. In the NASDAQ,
the bulls may have nicked it at the close with two accumulation
days last week and a bullish inside day for Friday. Technicals
are improving, most notable the bullish MACD histogram - although
slow stochastics never remained oversold long enough to suggest
a big rally will come from here. Short term traders may want
to buy for a move to the mid-Bollinger band (i.e. 20-day moving
average),
and if volume increases, a move to the upper Bollinger band.
The NASDAQ
100 did not benefit from the accumulation days, although
it too finished on a bullish harami on Friday. However, no rally
in
the tech indices will last without the support of the semiconductor index.
Unlike the NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100 the Sox has
been oversold for a couple of weeks. A bullish divergence in
the CCI, with rising slow stochastics and a move inside the lower
Bollinger
band do suggest a bounce is in play - which will reflect favorably
on the tech averages. The secondary indices, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ both
upticked on Friday, and are close to marking an intermediate
term bottom. However, the $NASI remains
in freefall although its CCI is mapping a bullish divergence
from heavily oversold levels.
Large cap stocks, marked by
the Dow,
are still working at support. Slow stochastics still have some
way to reach oversold levels and the MACD remains weak. I redrew
the channel line in the S&P index.
It managed one accumulation day last week and also finished Friday
on a bullish inside day. However, the MACD is still in freefall
and slow stochastics, like the Dow,
are not yet oversold. On the flip side, the small caps look well
placed for a bounce. The Russell
2000 built on last Wednesday's hammer, closing higher on Friday.
The CCI crossed above the -100 line, marking an aggressive "buy" while
slow stochastics are rising from oversold levels. The bounce should
be good to reach the 50-/20-day moving average between 629-633.
Breakout failures: FRE featured
on Dec 22nd. IBAS featured
on August 30th sold off heavily
on Friday after been up more than 30% last December. ITRI featured
on Dec 20th hit is stop on
Jan 13th for a modest loss.
Breakout targets met: CLHB featured
on Dec 1st for a 34.8% gain,
only the second successful breakout for December. The stock closed
strong on Friday, surpassing its recommended price target.
Jan 12th:
First off - thank you to Tom at Sixth
World for the headline coverage (if you see this Tom can
you email me: fallond@yahoo.com), much appreciated. Back to the
markets
- a much better day all round. It may not have been a big point
gain day, but the failure of the bears to capitalize on yesterday's
losses is a good omen for the bulls. The tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] ended at support, on bullish hammer/dojis helped in
part by Intel.
Tomorrow will be the day Apple leads
the market - but expect Sun
Microsystems to contribute to the pot. Watch the Sox -
it is struggling at support of a downward channel, short term
it is due a bounce and this bounce may develop into something
bigger
if it can push past resistance c425. The Dow regained
the support it lost yesterday, while the S&P is
trading at support of a redrawn channel line. Even the recently
maligned Russell
2000 managed a bullish hammer.
Stocks on the list had a mixed
day. Precious
metal stocks suffered, even as the core metals, silver and gold gained.
These pullbacks in the mining stocks look like buying opportunities,
but there is no need to rush in - bullish divergences in the various
MACD histograms should hold through the pullbacks. Stocks looking
good value include; ARIA,
small hammer at support, CETV has
edged its way back on light trading to the highs of the big volume
buying spike - watch for demand to pick up here. DDS looks
ready to pop real soon, note the tightening Bollinger bands. HURC has
traded some long lower shadow candlesticks into an area of support
- on-balance-volume has held up well suggesting little selling,
but the bearish distribution in the MACD trigger line is not to
be ignored. SBAC is
at a critical juncture - it has marked slow declines since December
leaving it at major support of $8.45. This has been a great performer,
but if buying (or holding) don't be afraid to let go if it drops
below $8.15. GRA is
showing a similar pullback pattern - buy break of resistance. Aggressive
buyers may find interest in the bullish harami in LNUX -
set stops on a low of $1.92. AAII is
sitting at support of the 20- and 50-day moving average - buying
demand has held up well, note the constriction in the Bollinger
bands. CIEN received
an upgrade, pushing it close to resistance on heavy volume - watch
for moves over $3.00. ELGX has
developed a nice flag - the next move could be very soon (it has
an excellent weekly chart). GEG posted
a big reversal on low volume, reversals of this magnitude are usually
bearish - watch the pullback (if any!). SWN attempted
a heavier volume rally as it shapes a bullish flag - buying support
could pay dividends. JDSU ended
the day on a bullish harami cross after some lacklustre trading
in November and December - watch for upside to $3.25. SIRI is
another stock that looks like it is forming a bearish head fake
- it held $6 support for a third day, an interesting buy if you
can get shares in the morning (keep stops tight though). SUNW's
earnings will keep this on many watch list. It currently trades
on major support of $4.45. HTM completed
a lengthy decline with a bullish doji at the lower Bollinger Band
on heavier volume. It also sits at support of the rising channel
line. Penny grabbers may want to take a look at GZFX -
after months of quiet this one has awoken again. Day traders could
look to the two-day-reversal in TASR,
there is a tasty gap to $20 to close.
Breakout failures: GERN featured
on Jan 7th clipped its stop
intraday, but closed strong and continues to look bullish - but
for the record it is a "loss". Yesterday's VIVO was
another loser - the thin liquidity reversing the prior breakout.
Breakout targets met: none
Jan 11th: Did
the sun poke its head out of the clouds? In the tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] the markets closed on support on heavier volume - often
a sign of accumulation eventhough technically its rated as "distribution".
Unfortunately, the Sox didn't
join the party and crashed through support as earnings got
off to a poor start from AMD, but did receive a boost from
INTC in after hours trading. This should bring a stronger open
- the question will be whether the markets can build on it. The
remaining indices had a poor day. The Dow fell
through support of November highs and now looks set to test November
lows. The Russell
2000 reversed a bullish hammer, closing below support and is
back making inroads into my "pink box" of support marked
on my chart. The S&P is
hanging on, although the heavier volume added a fifth distribution
day since mid-December.
Breakout failures: CNTY featured
on Nov 3rd and Dec
8th. FNSR featured
on Dec 13th. KANA featured
on Dec 8th.
Breakout targets met: none
Jan 10th: Limp
action in the markets kept the any meaningful bounce under
wraps. Given the expectation for a significant bullish day, today's
action will have come as a big disappointment - leaving traders
looking
down instead of up. Tomorrow is another day, but the forecast
is overcast.
Breakout failures: EGHT featured
on Dec 7th. COVD featured
on Dec 17th.
Breakout targets met: none
Jan 9th: Between
the Sox bounce
off support, and the tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] lying very close to the rising channel support line,
markets are well placed for a bounce. Ideally, a gap down to
start the
day (opening the tech markets at support) followed by
buying for the rest of the day would be an ideal long entry.
Technically, we still have some distance to run down to reach
oversold levels,
so I would view any bounce here as temporary unless new highs
are put in place (ie. sell a test of resistance, buy (buyback)
a break
of resistance). The only index to remain bearish is the Russell
2000, which reversed Thursday's bullish harami cross with
Friday's bearish engulfing pattern and break of support. The S&P is
holding its 50-day moving average (and lower BB band) but doesn't
looks as attractive buy as the tech indices, while the Dow sits
at former resistance from November, but still has some 100 points
to run to reach it's lower BB band/50-day moving average. Secondary
indicators, $NAA50, $NASI,
and $BPCOMPQ indicators
remain weak - so don't expect too much from a tech bounce when
it comes (Monday/Tuesday).
Breakout failures: ASIA featured
on Nov 23rd. EFX featured
on Jan 4th. IONA featured
on Nov 18th. MANU featured
on Dec 1st. REDF featured
on Nov 17th.
Breakout targets met: none
Jan 6th: The
fourth day of the correction in the markets has claimed many
breakout victims. Over the last 2 days another 10 breakouts failed,
raising
the tally of December failures to 24 with only 1 success for
the month. In this sort of market environment it is best to stay
in
cash, or look to oversold plays to minimize risk - breakouts
simply aren't holding. How close are we to are short term bottom?
Slow
stochastics still look to have another two days of selling in
them (although the traditional 14 day slow stochastic is oversold).
The 50-day moving average of the tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] failed to hold as support, leaving rising channel support
as the next price test. The hardest hit by the selling, the Russell
2000 has put a clear (strongly) bullish harami cross. Traders
could look for a short term buy switching to an aggressive short
on a test of the 20-day moving average in this index. The last
two days of narrow trading in the tech markets can be used to
time a long entry is on a break of today's highs - but this doesn't
protect against a gap open. Given the recent heavy volume selling
I would be surprised to see a gap open build into afternoon gains
as nearly all of December's trading lurks as overhead supply
(with
the exception of the Dow we
are now trading at levels last seen in mid-November, that's alot
of people holding losing stock in the space of 4 days). The Sox is
deeply oversold in the short term, the CCI had dropped well below
-200 with the index sitting on a new downward channel support
line - when this bounces it will take the tech indices with it.
As for
the longer term, the secondary indicators, $NAA50, $NASI,
and $BPCOMPQ indicators
all look to pointing to a more extended decline. Should such
a decline fail, ie. we see new 52-week highs on the next bounce,
then the markets will be nicely positioned for a sizeable rally.
Individual stocks show some
interesting trends. I still like the gold, and silver (especially)
plays. Silver prices
have started to map bullish divergences in the MACD histogram and
CCI. Gold hasn't
done this yet, but a test of the 200-day moving average in this
metal would be an interesting long term buy. Of my featured plays SSRI looks
the best value here. Of former breakout plays, ASVI sits
right on support which has treated it well in the past - although
the technical picture is not as strong with slow stochastics now
below the bullish 50 line. BEAV has
switched from a potential breakout play to a potential short play.
The failed test of new resistance suggests the bears are increasing
their grip. ENWV has
posted a series of candlesticks with long upper shadows - usually
a sign of distribution. A break of $16.32 will begin a new downtrend. WG is
at an interesting juncture, marked by the convergence of wedge
support and resistance and the 20-day moving average. Today's doji
marks an excellent swing trade for a move to the Bollinger bands
extremes. Another swing trade play is SIRI -
today's doji at a pennant apex with a tightening of the BB bands
will bring a sizable move. CIEN sits
at the convergence of the 20- and 200-day moving average. Given
its rapid rise and reversal from outside the upper BB band down
to the 20-day moving average I would look for a follow through
move down to the lower BB band. SWN sits
at meeting of two trendlines. The lower high, lower low sequence
ends the prior uptrend. Watch a move to the upper channel line
($50) which also marks a (probable) crossover of the 20- and 50-
day moving average and the start of a new downtrend (and shorting
opportunity). JDSU closed
at new 6-month lows but has remained relatively trendless, will
this change? LU completed
the third candlestick of a bearish "three black crows" sequence
- normally bearish. What I think is an excellent long term play, ERES,
now sits at major support of $13.65. One of the better steel plays, OS,
ended today on a bullish hammer on higher volume - can this kick
a continuation of the rally? OVTI is
struggling to regain its prior uptrend, two dojis together below
resistance on weakening technicals favors a retracemet into the
void, potentially down to $11.00. TASR has
mapped an interesting reversal, an upside pennant break which reversed
and now sits at support on weakening technicals.
For the purposes of disclosure.
I hold Jan 06 puts for a third party in LU, CIEN, SIRI, and SWN,
and Jan 06 calls in ERES and PAAS. Having said that, I am getting
a little nervous on the SIRI puts.
Breakout failures (for today
and yesterday): TLAB featured
on Jan 4th for a 6.43% loss. ARDM featured
on Dec 13th for a 13% loss. CVNS featured
on Dec 30th for a 11.6% loss. DHB featured
on Nov 16th for a 13.9% loss. DRIV featured
on Oct 22nd and Nov
15th for a 2.3% and 10.4% loss respectively. FLR featured
on Dec 9th for a 5.8% loss. IMMR featured
on Dec 28th for a 12% loss. IWOV featured
on Dec 7th for a 10.5% loss. JUPM featured
on Dec 29th for a 10.6% loss. ONNN featured
on Dec 6th for a 9.6% loss.
Breakout targets met (for
today and yesterday):
Jan 5th: The
third day of selling has pushed markets to short term oversold
levels. Tomorrow or Friday should be watched for bullish candlesticks
- namely hammers (most likely), dojis, or bullish engulfing patterns.
This should provide decent short term buys for a rally of 2-5 days
duration. The question will then become at what point these small
rallies will stall. A push to close at new highs will end all talk
of bearish action. Should the next rally start flashing candlesticks
with long upper shadows (ie the intraday range compared to the
open/close range places the open and close near the lows of the
day) at, or before 52-week highs, then we will have a reasonable
shorting opportunity for a prolonged correction. The secondary
indicators, $NAA50,
but the $NASI,
including the $BPCOMPQ are
all pointing to a more substantial correction than a simple 3-4
day drop. The indices to avoid (and their associated stocks) are
small caps (Russell
2000) and the semi's (Sox).
The former has put in the third of a "three
black crow" combination - a very bearish sequence which
is usually shorted on a move to the highs of the second of the
three candlesticks. The Sox has
some potential for the bulls if the new declining channel plays
to form - buy for a move to resistance.
Breakout failures: [technical
difficulties prevent a review here]
Breakout targets met: [technical
difficulties prevent a review here]
Jan 4th: Update
to follow
Breakout failures: KEYW featured
on Dec 29th. FNIX featured
on Dec 30th. EWH featured Dec
21st. KNOL featured
on Jan 3rd. ORCL featured
on Dec 14th. LNUX featured
on Dec 8th. UBET featured
on Dec 28th.
Breakout targets met: none
Jan 3rd: After
two weeks of lack lustre trading the markets greeted the New
Year with a healthy dose of profit taking. Small
caps were the key losers on the day. The Russell
2000 ended the day below the 20-day moving average (640)
and should go on to test the lower BB band (626). The flight
to quality
is typical in the end-phases of rallies as money switches from
small to large caps. The tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] were next to suffer, led by a Philly Sox index
that has struggled below former support of the rising channel.
The Dow suffered
in its own way, the confirmed break of the bearish wedge should
see a move to 10,390, but today's selling had not the furore
of the tech indices. In the short term, moves to the lower BB
bands
on each of the indices look the best bet and watch how support
plays out. A similar sell off on Dec 7th did not lead to a market
correction. However, as I have noted before, bearish divergences
in the MACD and CCI of secondary indicators, $NAA50,
but the $NASI do
suggest an intermediate top is in, so taking money off the table
would be prudent. For the bulls, the $BPCOMPQ is
holding on, with no bearish divergence in the MACD and a negated
bearish divergence in the CCI. Also note the how goes January,
so goes the rest-of-the year - were are not off to good start
in this regard.
Breakout failures: none
Breakout targets met: none
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