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FEB 07

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Feb 27th: All the bearish tension in the air was released in one fell swoop; channels breached, 50-day MAs sliced. There was no place for bulls to hide. At its simplest, the 200-day MAs are the likely area to watch for support as the baby step advances we have seen to the upside leave very little in the way of support for markets on the way down.

What have bulls to look forward too? The horizontal channel support which stood from November through to January was tested (successfully) Tuesday in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. The Russell 2000 breakdown fell back inside its November-January consolidation and has major support at 770 to turn too. The markets also failed to alter their bullish alignment with respect to relative strength {Small caps > Tech Indices > Large Caps}.This of course could change over the next few days but it may be important as to the timing of the next rally. Large caps [S&P and Dow] have less support to hold on too and picking a likely point for a rally (other than the 200-day MAs) is more difficult.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] failed to escape the rout. The $NASI and $BPCOMPQ were mildly affected, considering, both are below their 5-day EMA's and the $BPCOMPQ is about to lose its bullish divergence in the Ultimate Oscillator - perhaps the best internal driving force for the rally. The $NAA50 took it hardest with a 355 point decline, taking the internal almost all the way back to January lows in one day. At 1,160 it is still a good 800 points away from an oversold condition - how much more selling will it take to get it there?

The good news? The market needed this sell off to reset the rally count. Now it best to wait and see.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: Well - here we go! ACV featured as a Breakout for November 17th, January 4th, and February 14th. Each play closed for a 14% gain, 1% gain, and a 2% loss respectively. ARRS was a Subscriber pick for December 20th and a later Breakout play for February 1st. It was hit hardest yesterday but followed through Tuesday to hit its stop for a 5% gain and a 7% loss respectively. AZO gapped against the run of play and into its February 1st Breakout play stop price. The stock had previously featured for September 20th, November 9th, and January 4th. Each of the picks, from oldest to most recent, closed for a 25% gain, 9% gain, 4% gain, and a 2% loss. BITS dropped below breakout support. The February 15th Breakout play closed for a 10% loss. DISH closed at channel support (and above the 50-day MA), but declined enough to hit its highest stop price. The stock featured as a Breakout for July 18th, November 8th, January 9th, and February 14th; each of the plays closed for a 27% gain, 15% gain, 7% gain, and a 1% loss. FORM reversed its wedge breakout, closing the February 26th Breakout play for a 4% loss and the February 2nd Subscriber pick for a 3% loss. SNHY was a Breakout play for October 2nd and closed for a 7% gain on its raised stop. TRMB, post-split, hit its January 29th stop price for an 8% loss. The three earlier Subscriber picks for July 27th, December 15th and January 5th, each of these closed for a 12% gain, 3% gain and a 2% loss. AME was a Subscriber pick for January 25th and February 15th; the latter closed for a 3% loss and the former play closed flat. ASMI was a Subscriber pick for January 18th and February 15th. The January play closed for a 4% gain, the February pick for a 3% loss. IFLO drifted into its stop price after weeks of lackluster action. The January 4th Subscriber pick closed for a 7% loss. IGM was a Subscriber pick from January 16th. The stock gapped below its 50-day MA and into its stop price for a 5% loss. JNY featured as a Subscriber pick for January 19th and it too broke below its 50-day MA and into its stop price for a 5% loss. LTC was a Subscriber pick for January 30th and it dropped through its 50-day MA into its stop price for a 4% loss. RDY had already experienced a protracted decline prior to Tuesday's sell off. The October 30th Subscriber pick closed for a 9% loss. RVSN also hit its February 13th Subscriber pick stop price for a 6% loss. RATE broke down to its February 7th Subscriber pick stop price for a 6% loss. VPHM cut through its most recent breakout. The stock featured as a Subscriber pick for January 26th and February 8th; the former closed for a 5% gain and the latter for a 6% loss. STM gapped below recent breakout support. The stock featured as a Subscriber pick for February 23rd and closed for a 3% loss. SY edged a mini-breakout last week, only to have cast aside in favor of a stop hit. The January 26th Subscriber pick closed for a 5% loss. TWPG didn't last a day as support didn't turn out to what I thought it might have been. The February 27th Subscriber pick registers as a 3% loss. USEG was another recent Subscriber pick (for February 26th), but it too went the way of the Dodo and close for a 10% loss. SGMO suffered a series of declines to drift into its February 2nd Subscriber pick stop price for an 8% loss (although it did manage to find support at the 50-day MA).

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Feb 26th: Monday saw threats to the breakouts in the NASDAQ and S&P, but both recovered enough by the close to retain their breakouts, and both remain well inside their rising channels. Channel support was successfully tested in the Russell 2000 but failed in the Dow - the first chink in the armor for the channel advance, but recent history for this index has favored upside bounces from just below the 20-day MA and this time could be no different. However, there was an accompanying 'sell' trigger in the MACD, resulting in a redefinition of the bearish divergence in play since October 2006. A similar return to the MACD bearish divergence was observed in the S&P too. Higher volume selling triggered the fourth distribution day since the last accumulation day in the S&P. For the Dow, Monday marked the third distribution day since the last accumulation day.

The bull trends running from late December for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, and late January for the Russell 2000 are intact. There is a hint of weakness for the October/November rallies in the Dow and S&P, although a shift in the advance rate would not be unusual at this stage, and the S&P has plenty of room to run to channel support before bulls should become concerned.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: CRY bit the bullet after a huge intraday swing - likely triggered by a big order sell which knocked out protective stops. The stock featured as a Breakout for January 22nd and again for February 5th. The former closed for a 4% gain and the latter a 6% loss. The earlier December 12th Subscriber play closed for a 16% gain. ENZN was a Subscriber pick for January 25th that suffered its twelfth day of flat, or declining trading, to hit its stop price for a 6% loss. FIF was a Subscriber pick from January 26th which failed to break congestion as defined by its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs. The play closed for a 2% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Feb 24th: A relatively uneventful end to the week as another test of channel support in the Dow held into the close of business on Friday. Unfortunately, heavier volume decline in the Dow registered a distribution day and a MACD trigger 'sell'. The MACD 'sell' signal was enough to create a fresh bearish divergence in the indicator - which in turn, could be the cue to see a break of channel support on Monday. The NASDAQ 100 fell just shy of a breakout, but higher volume at resistance is a sign of (bearish) churning, so there is no guarantee for a breakout early next week. Working in support of the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ were the continued gains in the semiconductor index. In the short term the semiconductor index is looking a little rich, but there was enough leg work done by the bulls to shifts its intermediate picture (3 weeks - 3 month outlook) in favor of long positions. This in turn, should translate to gains for the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ.

The Russell 2000 posted a minor loss and still maintains its sharply rising (and narrow banded) channel, started late January. The break of the October-February bearish divergence in its MACD remains its key move for the week. The S&P held support of 1,452 and did so without the higher volume churning witnessed in the Dow.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] were little changed and run in support of January gains in the indices. Because of this I hold to my bullish 30-day outlook for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: TRLG suffered its second day of declines to hit its February 8th Subscriber stop price for an 8% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Feb 22nd: Things will be back to normal over the weekend now that our visitors have left. Interesting day for the markets, for the Dow in particular, given it closed right on support of last week's breakout and rising channel support dating back to November last year. The Dow is the only index to challenge its channel support and how it acts here will say plenty about what to expect from the other indices over the coming days. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 were relatively quiet, but it was a great day for the semiconductor index - over the weekend I will review what the Stockcharters have to say about its move, but it is well on its way to escaping its stupor; 492 resistance is next. A healthy semiconductor index is good news for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 and could keep their rallies chugging along for a good while longer.

The Russell 2000 maintained its breakout and closed at the highs of the day. More importantly, it was able to break its October-February bearish divergence in its MACD trigger line, ending this phase of the consolidation and turning 770 into strong support. The S&P had a relatively quiet day - the key points of note where the break of its MACD bearish divergence (good news for the bulls), but it also registered its third consecutive distribution day. The break of 1,452 stands and this should be considered the key level to watch if you are bull.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] continued their advance as the $NAA50 built on yesterday's double resistance breakout. There is no indication from these internals that the rally is done (now that new reaction highs and/or resistance breaks are in play), even if this leg of the rally started at overbought levels for these internals.

Target hit: VDSI featured as a Subscriber pick for January 5th and January 31st. The former closed for a 44% gain, the latter a 26% gain.

Stop hit: CPNE featured as a Breakout for January 31st and February 8th. The latter closed for a 13% loss and the former for a 14% gain.

Feb 20th: No stock picks for Wednesday (relatives are in town for the week), although it was a good day for the markets. A clean breakout in the NASDAQ was supported by higher volume, with decent gains in the NASDAQ 100 (but unfortunately, no breakout to go along with it). Tech strength was helped by the positive back-test of the bullish flag breakout in the semiconductor index. The tech indices are looking very good, aided by the steady gains in the tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ]. The $NAA50 enjoyed a double breakout - bursting through February highs and the 6-month high to leave it some 170 points shy of a typical top in this measurement. The $NASI was perhaps the most consistent as its advance as it continued unhindered by nearby resistance (it still has some 120 points to go before this becomes a problem and even then it could climb another 800 points before a top begins to develop). Tech is finally catching up with recent breakouts in small and large caps.

The Russell 2000 was the other winner on the day as it built on Friday's breakout; clearing 817 resistance (now support) and keeping its January rally intact. Although it is not clear on the chart, the bearish divergence in the MACD histogram looks cooked and this should further fuel the rally. Large caps [S&P and Dow] were more modest in their gains, but there was a break in the 5-month bearish divergence of the MACD histogram of the S&P.

The day couldn't have been better for the bulls. On a personal front, the rally has toasted some GIGM covered calls of mine.

Target hit: DA was a breakout play for August 3rd. It had reached its target price last week, but managed further gains today - however, for my purposes it is considered to have reached its target price for a 24% gain.

Stop hit: none

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Feb 18th: Friday saw a weak breakout in the Russell 2000 (at least a new closing high) as the past five days saw new closing highs for large caps [S&P and Dow], combined with decent gains for the tech averages [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100], but as yet - no consolidation breakouts for the latter averages. Volume climbed in the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ 100 - but given Friday was an options expiration day the overall volume was very light.

There were some technical improvements with the bearish divergence of the MACD trigger line of the NASDAQ breaking, along with a relative strength gain for the NASDAQ 100 over the Dow {Small caps > Tech averages > Large caps = most bullish alignment for the markets}. I have drawn new rising channels for some of the indices in my public Stockchart.com chart list (if you follow the link then please give it your vote by scrolling to the bottom of the screen - it is the only way I know people appreciate the work).

There was little technical change for the tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] although volatility gave up 13% last week and is fast approaching deep oversold territory.

I am bullish for a 1 month period, but bearish for 3 months+ (although my longer term bearish outlook has been in play since October and has been a bust). Readers of Bill's (aka No DooDahs) excellent blog will no doubt read of his disdain for the cash position, but given it easy enough to get 5% or more for no risk I remain in favor of cash positions until markets reach a point of retreat (on oversold internals) to allow for greater equity exposure.

Target hit: CYTR was a Subscriber pick for January 10th and a Breakout for February 8th. The former closed for a 101% gain, the latter for a 42% gain.

Stop hit: BOL was a Subscriber pick for February 1st. It failed to gain ground, drifting into its stop for a 3% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Feb 14th: Bulls applied the pressure, pushing the S&P and Dow to new closing highs, each of which enjoy firm rising channels. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 also benefited, but there was no break from the long standing sideways consolidations for these indices. The semiconductor index also posted a solid gain, but it was still not enough to break the bullish flag to the upside - so resistance remains in play for this index. If there was a fly in the soup it was the Russell 2000; it failed to hold on to its early gains and closed near the lows of the day. It was troubling to see the lead index (in terms of relative strength) struggle to keep up with the other averages. Watch this closely, further weakness in the Russell 2000 would likely spread to the tech averages before filtering over to the large caps. I have drawn new rising channels for tech and large cap indices in my public Stockchart.com list.

The tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] saw across the board gains; for the $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ this meant a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA The $NAA50 looks to have found support at former wedge resistance (now support). The $BPCOMPQ has swung back in favor of the bulls as it trades around major resistance of 60. The $NASI ticked higher in a relatively clean uptrend and is well on its way to testing 2006 highs of 348.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: none

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Feb 13th: Large caps [S&P and Dow] stole today's show with some solid gains on higher volume. Congestion from last week will act as a supply to dampen further gains but buying action was welcome relief to the last couple days of selling. The tech averages [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] changed little on the day and remained contained by the 3-month sideways channels of these indices. Small caps [Russell 2000] rose a little, and were able to maintain their leadership role over the other indices. The only real point of concern for the Russell 2000 was the reversal off the bearish divergence in its MACD trigger line.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] were relatively unchanged. The $NAA50 bounced off former resistance-now support of its declining wedge. Further short term upside remains favored for tech stocks, but longer term holdings would be vulnerable at these overbought levels.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: BCGI fell heavily during lunchtime trading to run into its January 24th Subscriber pick stop for a 4% loss; the earlier December 12th pick closed for a 2% gain. MVIS hit its January 5th Subscriber stop for a 20% loss; the earlier October 23rd and December 6th Subscriber picks closed for a 42% gain and a 12% gain respectively.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Feb 12th: There was some follow through to Friday's selling but it wasn't enough to drive a rout. Volume dropped dramatically - lessening the blow to the indices. There was some technical damage in the indices, most notably the MACD 'sell' triggers in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and S&P, but also the loss of the 20-day MA in the semiconductor index, S&P and Dow, and the 50-day MA in the NASDAQ 100. But without the volume to drive the selling there was little real damage done.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] saw a bearish cross of the 5-day EMA in the $BPCOMPQ with supporting MACD trigger line and bullish trend strength [+DI] up against resistance. The $NAA50 fell back inside the consolidation of the former 4-month declining wedge as the $NASI flatlined.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: JAS hit its January 16th Breakout play stop price as it made a positive test of its 50-day MA (look for upside bounce). The stock originally featured as a Subscriber pick for November 22nd. The Subscriber pick closed for a 17% gain and the Breakout play for a 7% loss. NVL looks to have settled on a buyout price of $43.67. This closed the November 17th Subscriber play for a 65% gain, the January 9th Breakout play for a 51% gain, and the February 2nd Breakout play for an 18% gain. MGPI was a Subscriber pick for November 10th but a period of scrappy action meant the stock never got anywhere - the stock hit its stop on intraday action to close with an 11% loss. CHDX was a Subscriber pick for January 24th but the stock gapped down on earnings and into to its stop for a 17% loss. PSEC hit its stop after it too suffered on earnings. The October 3rd Subscriber pick closed for a 7% gain. MEND was a Subscriber pick for January 11th. The stock gapped down on earnings and registered an 11% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Feb 11th: Bears made a long awaited appearance in the markets. The selling may have hurt the short term holders, particularly longs in the semiconductor index - but also traders in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, as the larger picture was little changed. The tech averages [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] reversed shy of resistance, but still have a 50-day MA and sideways channel support to look forward too. The Dow lost support of its late January breakout, ending the week on the 20-day MA. The S&P finished a couple points below breakout support, but also managed to find support at its 20-day MA. The Russell 2000 didn't escape the cull, but finished well above 797 support. The markets are at important short term tests (20-day MAs) and it will take a stronger effort from the bears to break the strength of momentum bulls have developed since last summer. In the relative strength battle, large caps regained their position over tech stocks {Small caps > Large Caps > Tech averages}.

Secondary tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] also exhibited weakness with the $NAA50 generating a 'sell' trigger in its 5-day EMA with a corresponding 'sell' trigger in its Ultimate Oscillator. The $NASI bucked the trend of the other internals and the markets as a whole by actually gaining a few points (in favor of the bulls).

Target hit: none

Stop hit: GIB was knocked on the head by a mix of a tight stop and a weak market. The stock featured as a Breakout for January 31st and again for February 8th. The latter closed for a 2% loss, the former for a 4% gain. ELY was deeply discounted following earnings, cutting through its January 22nd Subscriber pick stop for a 7% loss. SUI suffered a roller coaster ride with a sequence of gains and losses to whipsaw those with the best of intentions. The February 5th Subscriber pick closed for a 3% loss and an earlier August 30th Subscriber pick for a 3% loss too.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Feb 8th: A brief attempt by bears to negate the breakouts in the large cap indices [Dow, and S&P] failed to generate any dividends. The indices were able to regain enough composure by the close to keep their respective rallies intact. The other indices [NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000] were little changed and even tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] budged little. Bulls keep control and look set to maintain their upward course.

For followers of the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll I have kept with a bullish stance for a second week in a row. But hold to a bearish stance over a longer time frame (> 3 months).

Target hit: none

Stop hit: TSYS featured as a Subscriber pick for October 19th and again for January 12th. It made its first feature as a Breakout for January 29th. The two former Subscriber picks close for a 12% gain and a 3% gain. The Breakout play closed for a 10% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Feb 7th: The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 pushed upside from their 20-day and 50-day MAs - a little follow through from yesterday's afternoon gains. Both tech indices did so on higher volume accumulation. Also working in the bulls favor was the break of the MACD bearish divergence in the NASDAQ and relative gains over the large cap indices [Dow, and S&P]. The NASDAQ 100 didn't challenge MACD bearish divergence but did create a MACD trigger 'buy'. The Russell 2000 soared to new highs and doesn't look like it is going to stop any time soon. The MACD bearish divergence is coming up for this index so it will be interesting to see what happens when it is tested. Large cap indices [Dow, and S&P] stuck to a theme of not doing very much and as a consequence, started to lag both small caps [Russell 2000] and tech averages [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] - {Small caps > Tech averages > Large caps}. The semiconductor index fell shy of testing channel resistance, but at least it managed to close over its 50-day MA. Bulls could do with giving the semiconductor index a little more loving as tech averages won't get too far without its help.

Finally, the tech market internals[$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] were interesting because the $BPCOMPQ eased against gains in the parent NASDAQ. This puts the market internal in a fight around 60 resistance with the MACD trigger line approaching its bearish divergence. Based on the rate of ascent of these internals the $NAA50 suggests a NASDAQ top could be in place inside 9 weeks; the $NASI, if it reverses around 500 could top in 4 weeks, or if it challenges its all time highs c900, then look to 9 weeks.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: none

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Feb 6th: The indices were little changed by the close of business, but there was good intraday strength from the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and semiconductor index - regaining morning losses and leaving them well primed to test January highs. The strength was reflected in the tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] as the $NASI followed the $NAA50 in breaking from its 5-month MACD bearish divergence. Small [Russell 2000] and Large [Dow, and S&P] caps were little changed and maintained last weeks breakouts.

Target hit: ABV was a Subscriber pick from July 31st. It touched its price target for a 31% gain.

Stop hit: CCI was a Subscriber pick for January 22nd. The play closed for a 5% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Feb 5th: Very little to add from the weekend. The only point of interest was the reversal from the 50-day MA in the semiconductor index. Not even the tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] changed.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: Although the stop wasn't hit, CBRX gapped down horribly, losing 68% on a failed phase III study. Bail and take the loss. It featured as a Breakout for December 18th. MNKD hit its stop on a bullish hammer. A new stop could be placed on a loss of Monday's lows. The stock featured for Subscribers for January 11th and closed for a 5% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Feb 4th: The week closed with solid gains for the Russell 2000, Dow, and S&P. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 spent the bulk of the week watching from the sidelines, but did manage one-day of decent gains to keep their net movement bullish. There were bullish MACD trigger 'buys' for the NASDAQ and semiconductor index (but as yet, not the NASDAQ 100). This follows from earlier MACD 'buy' triggers in the Russell 2000, Dow, and S&P. It was not all plain sailing. The semiconductor index held 50-day MA resistance overhead and MACD bearish divergence dating back to September. MACD bearish divergences are in play for the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, S&P and Russell 2000 - and these will dominate even if last week's breakouts hold. Volume also failed to impress, but there is enough momentum from the bulls to keep on-balance-volume in line with bullish buying.

The tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] saw further gains with new closing highs for the $BPCOMPQ followed by strong up ticks in the $NASI and $NAA50. There is enough upside momentum in these indicators to suggest a 1-2 month rally could evolve - but over a longer time frame I would remain skeptical. Penny stocks thrive in this environment as better quality stocks are closer to their fair value and don't generate the speculative interest common during cycle lows in the market. Buyer beware.

Target hit: SLGN hit its target, but the stock still looks to have plenty of upside to come. The point-n-figure chart has a target of $88, but my January 18th Subscriber pick closed for a 12% gain.

Stop hit: KOOL broke through its stop as support collapsed. The January 23rd Subscriber pick closed for a 3% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.Feb 1st: The Russell 2000 was able to put some air between it and former resistance (now support) of 797. The gains in the Russell 2000 were enough to see sympathy breakouts in large cap indices [Dow, and S&P], although volume disappointed in the Dow it was enough to see an accumulation day in the S&P. The MACD trigger lines of the Dow and S&P switched to 'buy' signals. The MACD of the Dow closed just shy of breaking through the October-February bearish divergence. Unfortunately, tech averages [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] failed to join the party and remain trapped close to their 20-day/50-day MAs.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] gained to the extent they look well placed to support a 1-2 month long rally. The $NAA50 cleanly sliced through declining wedge resistance and has some 350 points to run before reaching overbought territory. The bearish divergences in the MACD trigger line and slow stochastic [39,1] of the $NAA50 also broke. For the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll I have turned bullish for a 30-day period, but I hold to my "Cash is King" position over a longer time frame (> 3 months).

Target hit: none

Stop hit: none

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