Home | Stock Picks [$] | Trading Jobs | Links | Sample Newsletter | Blog

User id: member email. Password: gold

User id: Member email. Password: goldDecember 22nd: Monday's losses were percentage significant even if the indices were able to pare back some of its losses. However, volume was very light. There was an increasing level of technical damage with rising support from November breached in a couple of indices in addition to breaches of 20-day MA support. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 did enough to hold rising support and their 20-day MAs. The Dow and S&P each confirmed a break of rising support and lost their respective 20-day MAs. The Russell 2000 tagged 20-day MA support as it stayed close to its 50-day MA and October-December resistance; however, a 'sell' trigger was created in its CCI. The semiconductor index was similarly penned in by channel resistance but its losses didn't break 20-day MA support.

Certainly there is a shift in strength towards small caps and tech (to a lesser degree), but this needs to be revealed in the indices with a stronger push than we are seeing now. Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] had not fully updated at time of writing, but the rise in the Summation Index ($NASI) will likely offset by weakness in the Percentage of Stocks above their 50-day MA ($NAA50R) and Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ). These are still bullish until proven otherwise.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: VLNC didn't make it out of the gate; it registered as a 15% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldDecember 20th: Friday's options expiration masked what was in effect a very quiet day. Although the week saw the indices give up 50-day MAs support, all were able to hold the faster 20-day MA. There was also a firmer shift in relative strength with small caps (Russell 2000) leading tech (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) then large caps (Dow and S&P) - the most bullish alignment for markers {Small caps > Tech > Large caps}. The weeks channel breakouts for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 also held.

There was modest technical change with a bearish cross in on-balance-volume (i.e. a shift to distribution) for the Dow as the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 swung back in favour of accumulation; a shift from safety to more speculative tech issues? Too early to say given the lack of interest in any stocks.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] reassumed their ascent, maintaining their bullish form. I hold to my bullish call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: PHHM crashed through its stop for a 13% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldDecember 18th: Thursday's losses were a little heavier than Wednesday's but the real hit came on the loss of the 50-day MAs as support. Volume remained light but no index escaped the selling. Worst hit was the semiconductor index which will reflect badly on the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. There was a technical 'sell' trigger for the CCI and a switch to bear trend strength [-DI > +DI: ADX > 20 but falling] as it reversed off 4-month resistance. The Dow and S&P also took a knock as the Russell 2000 finally tagged resistance.

The only positive from the day was the continued validity of the breaks in 3-month declining resistance for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, but the quality of the breaks is now under question.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] didn't take too much of a hit, keeping the bullish picture intact for now.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldDecember 17th: Yesterday gains were slowly pegged back on low volume. Not all indices suffered to the same degree and one was able to post a gain. The Russell 2000 closed up almost 1%, keeping interest in speculative stocks intact. The semiconductor index lost only 0.16%, the tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] each lost 0.6% and 1.4% respectively while the hardest hit large caps [Dow and S&P] gave up 1.1% and 1.0%.

The losses in the tech averages took them back under their 50-day MAs, but large caps had done enough on Tuesday to maintain their grip on their 50-day MAs while the Russell 2000 did enough to break above its 50-day MA. The semiconductor index kept its grip on its 50-day MA which will help tech averages regain theirs.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] maintained bull market conditions.

All-in-all, the above suggests the selling was just part of a larger bullish picture.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldDecember 16th: The favourable reaction to the rate cut helped push the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 past channel resistance and up to their 50-day MAs. The semiconductor index finished at the convergence of (former) intermediate wedge resistance but was able to break past its 50-day MA; this is good news for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. Also good news was the net shift in technicals to the bullish side of the fence for the semiconductor index. Volume rose to register a firm accumulation day for these indices. The Russell 2000 has a little more leg work to do before it gets to channel resistance as it finished right on the 50-day MA. The Dow and S&P also made it clear past their 50-day MAs on higher volume accumulation.

Questions now are whether indices which have broken through their 50-day MAs can hold their breaks and if the Russell 2000 can follow them with a break of its own.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] all rose; the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MAs ($NAA50R) making the strongest gains. New reaction highs in the breadth indicators should correlate with breaks of October/November highs in the NASDAQ; prepare for a larger challenge on the 200-day MA with short term targets of 1,901 and 1,785. Similar targets based on October and November highs can be used for the other indices.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldDecember 15th: Monday's selling did not break the rising support lines from November lows which keeps the bullish scenario intact for the indices with the possible exception of the S&P. Volume was lighter, another positive if you are a bull. Other than the aforementioned S&P there was no significant change in the technical picture of the indices. Relative strength took another shift with small caps (Russell 2000) relegated to also ran against the S&P and NASDAQ, this was perhaps the most bearish aspect of the day {tech > large caps > small caps; neutral to bearish).

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] hadn't updated at time of writing but the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) is likely to continue with its zig-zag pattern, the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) probably completed a bearish cross of its 5-day MA, and the Summation Index ($NASI) should slow its ascent. In summary, breadth indicators are moving into neutral territory and no longer have the benefit of oversold conditions to support the rally.

But until rising support from November lows is breached the Santa rally is intact.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: PHHM didn't make it out of the gate, registering for a 7% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldDecember 13th: Friday's gains brought the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 back to channel resistance, but not beyond; the Dow and S&P finished with bullish hammers anchored by their 20-day MAs; while the Russell 2000 reversed most of Thursday's losses while working off its 20-day MA. Volume was very light which takes away some of the work done by bulls. The only index to show any real muscle was the semiconductor index, an important sector to lead out of recession. Unfortunately, I jumped aboard this three months too early but I am liking it more here; if it gets past its 50-day MA it will be the cue to lead the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 higher. On the chart, 220 is a very important price area to break and more importantly, hold as support on weakness, for bulls.

Relative strength between the indices continues to shift about, reflecting the struggle between bulls and bears. Small caps (Russell 2000) are on the verge of leading the markets from tech and large caps (the most bullish alignment for the indices), but it's a coin toss between small caps and tech as to which will lead, but both are well ahead of large cap performance.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] diverged with gains in the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) and Summation Index ($NASI), but a loss in the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ). The latter is about 10 percentage points away from current bear market resistance so it may be an early warning of a more pronounced decline to come, although the remaining two breadth indicators don't suggest this yet.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldDecember 11th: Resistance played its card as indices eased on slightly higher volume. The losses were modest although the 20-day MAs remained support. The Russell 2000 was the day's biggest loser but nothing to suggest any significant damage. Supporting technicals of the indices were relatively unchanged; the only points of note came in the cross between bullish and bearish trend strength for the semiconductor index [+DI > -DI but ADX is falling implying a weakening overall trend].

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] were unchanged at time of writing but likely continued their advances given the mild declines.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldDecember 10th: Well, after two weeks of no internet I am finally back in the game. In my absence the bulls have pulled off some nice handy work, although volume has been tepid - typical of the season. With the weeks break of the 20-day MAs indices now have their 50-day MAs in sight. Wednesday saw little change in the indices following Tuesday's efforts. The semiconductor index led the indices on Tuesday, the Russell 2000 was today's 'star' - although it's still playing catch-up to the other indices.

Technicals perhaps made the most moves with bullish crosses of the mid-stochastic line by the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and Russell 2000. But outside of these changes there was little to report.

From a trading perspective there is an excellent swing trade on a break of the 3-day high/lows; stops on the reverse. The presence of the 50-day MA suggests the swing trade will break down before rising but let the market dictate terms. If there is a counter break (i.e. break of 3-day range, reversing and moving strongly in the other direction) then it could turn out to be very powerful indeed; a counter break is more likely to breakdown then rally.

As noted in my email commentary, Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are acting like they do during the development of an intermediate bottom; good enough for at 2 month rally perhaps?

Target hit: None

Stop hit: Over the course of my absence out went BRKL for a 13% loss.

Stockchart public list - please remember to vote!

Back to top


The information found on the Fallond Stock Picks Inc. website (www.fallondpicks.com) has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any information in this site without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by Fallond Stock Picks Inc. or any of its employees, Fallond Stock Picks Inc. makes no representations or warranties or takes any responsibility as to the accuracy of completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. accepts no liability to the recipient whatsoever whether in contract, in tort, for negligence, or otherwise for any direct or consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use of the information provided on this website, or of the recipient relying on any such recommendation or information (except insofar as any statutory liability cannot be excluded). Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice. Fallond Stock Picks Inc., or their respective affiliates or their officers, directors, analysts, or employees may have positions in securities referred to herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities mentioned herein. This document does not purport to be a complete description of the securities market or developments to which reference is made. There may be instances when fundamental, technical, and quantitative opinions may not be in concert. There are risks inherent in all investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain persons. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange, rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. and their affiliates make no representation that the companies which issue securities which are the subject of their research reports are subject to, or in compliance with certain informational reporting requirements imposed by the Securities Exchange act of 1934. Sales of securities or services covered in any report or on the web site may be made in only those jurisdictions where such securities or services and Fallond Stock Picks Inc. are qualified for solicitation. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. does not warrant, represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information, content, advertisements, or Third Party Sites and Content (as defined below) (collectively, the "Materials") contained on, distributed through, or linked, downloaded or accessed from Fallondpicks.com, nor the quality of any products, information, or other materials displayed, purchased, or obtained by you as a result of an advertisement or any other information or offer on or in connection with Fallond Stock Picks Inc. You acknowledge that any use of or reliance upon any Materials shall be at your sole risk. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. reserves the right, in its sole discretion and without any obligation, to make modifications to any portion of the Fallondpicks.com web site or publications at any time. You acknowledge and agree that you bear responsibility for your own investment research and investment decisions, and that Fallond Stock Picks Inc. shall not be held liable by you or any others for any decision made or action taken by you or others based upon reliance on or use of information or materials obtained or accessed through use of Fallondpicks.com. Prior to any transaction in securities, you should consult with a qualified professional securities or financial advisor.

Copyright 2004-2008 Fallondpicks.com