Fallondpicks Home | Free Stock Picks | Member Stock Picks [$] | Subscribe to my Newsletter | Subscribe to my Trade Signals | Subscribe to my Newsletter using a KIVA gift certificate | KIVA loans supported by membership | Testimonials | Find a Trading Job | Public Stockchart list | Market Links | Books | Data | Get Reviewed by me | Contact me | Search site | Blog Home

If you make a profit from information presented here, please consider making a donation to help run this site.
JUN 07
JUL 07
AUG 07
SEP 07
OCT 07
NOV 07
DEC 07

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.December 31st: The main news of the day was the support break of the rising channel in the Dow. This is of greater concern as it is about to be joined by a "Death Cross" between the 50-day and 200-day MAs. The S&P is in a similiar situation - except it hasn't experienced a channel break (yet), but already has a "Death Cross" in play between the 50-day and 200-day MAs. The NASDAQ gave up 20-day MA support, while the NASDAQ 100 ended the day on the 20-day MA. The Russell 2000 looks to have confirmed a bull trap when it broke above, but now below, its 50-day MA (and declining resistance from October).

The markets sit on a fine line; the Dow and Russell 2000 look more long term bearish; the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are wavering, while the S&P is clinging on to its rising channel. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] tell the same story from Friday - the $NAA50R is getting close to confirming a loss of its double bottom breakout.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: SAI was a Subscriber pick from December 12th. The stock drifted into its stop on low volatility to close with a 5% loss. VSAT suffered a similar fate. The December 24th play closed for a 5% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.December 27th: The last few days have seen a slow reversal in the market on very light volume. The NASDAQ came back off 2,724 resistance to rest on its 50-day MA with all supporting technicals bullish. The NASDAQ 100 did likewise, except resistance for this index lays at 2,142. The supporting semiconductor index turned support into resistance, but still has bullish divergences in technicals to help shore up demand - something bulls will need if a larger rout is not to develop. The Russell 2000 lost out heavily, undercutting its declining resistance breakout and the 50-day MA, and giving back almost 3% on the day. The Dow and S&P are both at convergences of 20-day, 50-day, 200-day MAs as well as rising channel support - the last couple of trading days for the year could make for some interesting viewing - as could the first few of the new year.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are clearer in their measure, showing a nascent rally with plenty of upside room - even if the internals themselves are no longer oversold.

It appears last week's breakout gaps are about to get a test.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: FCEL crashed into its stop to close the December 12th play for an 11% loss. NTG failed to get out of the gates and the December 24th play closed for a 5% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.December 23rd: Looks like the market wasn't going to go into Christmas week on a quiet note after all. Solid volume gains reversed much of recent lackluster trading, bringing fresh MACD trigger 'buy's for the Dow, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000. Small caps (Russell 2000) showed the biggest improvement with a declining resistance break after a period when 736 support look destined to be breached (it closed Friday at 785). Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] firmed up a Nasdaq bottom with the three internals trading above their 5-day EMAs. In addition, the $NAA50R confirmed a double bottom with a break above 36.32.

There were some bearish turns in the markets with the "Death Cross" between the 50-day and 200-day MAs of the S&P, and lingering 50-day MA resistance for the Dow, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000.

In terms of relative strength there was a shift towards Technology stocks; Tech indices leading both Large and Small caps {Tech Indices > Small caps > Large caps} - a bullish alignment for the indices. Things have certainly improved markedly, but bulls still have much work to do. For the purpose of the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook) I have gone with a bullish call. However, Friday's gaps are asking to be closed and a retracement looks inevitable. If these gaps fail to close before the week is out I would consider it very bullish.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: Two stocks I missed from Thursday were DCOM and SEAC; both were stopped out for a 12% and 10% loss respectively.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.December 19th: The holiday / hangover season began in earnest with some quiet trading. Volume was down with little in the way of movement. There were some minor changes - such as the MACD trigger 'sell' in the Dow, but these could reverse on a more regular trading day. The tight intraday range for the NASDAQ 100 might generate a swing entry on a break of the day's high/low with a stop on the flip side (a move to the 200-day MA would appear to be favored - but let the market decide). Value players should keep an eye on the semiconductor index, so far it has done a good job at holding 400 support. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] were unchanged.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: EDA suffered the second day of losses to knock the December 12th subscriber pick for a 10% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.December 18th: Afternoon buying brought all the indices up, helping offset some of Monday's losses. The NASDAQ pushed closer to its 200-day MA, completing a bullish harami cross on higher volume - although the gains weren't enough to regain this important moving average. The NASDAQ 100 dug in at 2000 support, an area of demand from November. Large caps (Dow and S&P) made modest gains, but there was no spectacular change for either index. Small caps (Russell 2000) enjoyed the best day, ending with a large bullish engulfing pattern working off 736 support.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are shaping important tests; the Nasdaq Percentage Percentage of Stocks Above 50-day MA ($NAA50R) is loitering around August/November lows, which also so happens to be typical bull market support (~20); while a similar test is about to play out for the Nasdaq Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ).

Bulls aren't cooked yet. Volume over the last few days lines in favor of a bullish consolidation and only a break of November lows on heavier volume would change this.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: PACT was a Subscriber pick for December 17th, but intraday volatility knocked the stop out for a 6% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.December 17th: Another day of mixed emotions. There were decisive breaks of the 200-day MAs for the NASDAQ and Dow, but accompanying volume was unusually light. The NASDAQ 100 pulled away from its 20-day MA bringing the 200-day MA - some 24 points way - into range. But the first key test for the NASDAQ 100 will be November lows at 1,980, along with 2,539 for the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ 100 also suffered the indignation of having all of its supporting technicals turn bearish.

Although the Dow gave up both its 20-day and 200-day MA support, there was little in the way of real technical damage. The S&P was the only index to register a distribution day, losing its 20-day MA support in the process. However, supporting technicals clung to prior bullishness. The long term health of the market (certainly what to expect in 2008) will be governed by the subsequent events in the Russell 2000. The index is on its third test of 736 support, having confirmed a lower high in October. A closing break of 736 would initiate a cyclical bear market - albeit with a relatively modest declining slope. Supporting technicals for the Russell 2000 completed the bearish rout with all indicators favoring further weakness.

Nasdaq internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] not surprisingly weakened. The Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) lost its 5-day EMA but is well placed to shape a bullish divergence relative to the parent index. Watch for another run on -1,000.

If there was a glimmer of light for the indices it would be the relatively modest declines for the semiconductor index. Technology is a typical early bull leader from a bottom and semiconductors look excellent value here - even if the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 look far from healthy.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: URRE was a Breakout for October 15th, 29th and a Subscriber pick for December 11th. The stock leaves the stage for a 14% gain, 1% gain and a 9% loss. AUTH hit its stop on a broad intraday sweep. The October 31st Subscriber pick missed out on its target price by $0.09, instead it registers as a 10% loss. CBU didn't last a day, falling deeper into its congestion. The stock closed for a 7% loss. ELMG was able to close above rising support and the 20-day MA, but not before hitting its December 10th stop. An earlier October 31st Subscriber pick closed for a 6% loss, the later free pick for a 9% loss. ERFW crashed through former $1.13 support. The October 23rd Subscriber pick closed for a 12% loss. OMEX also failed to last a day. This play exited for an 8% loss. SMTC drifted off its 200-day MA on its way to retest November lows. The December 10th Subscriber pick closed for a 3% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.December 15th: Although finishing with a bearish flourish, the market was little changed from what passed the day before. Lows for the past 4 days weren't violated which leaves the 20-day MAs key support level for all major moving averages, which the exception of the Dow (which is trading at is 200-day MA). Volume climbed for the Dow to register a distribution day, but there was no such concern for the other indices.

The Russell 2000 and semiconductor index took the brunt of the selling. The Russell 2000 edged ever closer to 736 support, with the semiconductor index losing out on an early break of resistance. A move back to test the reaction low of 400 looks favored for the latter index.

Two of the three Nasdaq internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] trade below their 5-day EMAs - a typical bearish position, but there was no further deterioration in supporting technicals of these internals. I am bullish for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: ESLR easily cleared its October 29th target price for a 49% gain.

Stop hit: HL cut into its stop after just falling short of its target. The November 5th Breakout play closed for a 6% loss. The earlier September 7th Goldmember pick finished with a 15% gain.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.December 13th: A day which threatened a bearish collapse, but was able to find some bullish form into the close. The lighter volume will not have soothed bulls, and the concern remains that another challenge on three day lows could result in a larger rout.

On an individual market basis, the S&P held minor level support of the 20-day MA, along with the semiconductor index, Russell 2000, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. Only the Dow failed to test its 20-day MA, instead favoring a test of its 200-day MA. The 20-day MAs are a good line in the sand for bulls to monitor over the next couple of days. There wasn't a whole lot of technical damage as many indicators (like the MACD) had risen sharply over the past few days, leaving room for bullish retreats. Of greater interest will be the knock on effect once technicals reach oversold levels - will they indicate a bounce in price, or simply mark the starting point for a move to new lows? I still favor a continuation of the rally - but it's not a clear cut case. If I was to single out a key weakness it would be the action of small caps (Russell 2000); should this index go on to make new lows (i.e. a close below 734) it would likely spell the end for any other index to break their 2007 highs and start a whole lot of trouble....

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.December 12th: An absurd gap off the open on Fed's plans to alleviate the global credit crisis generated another huge intraday swing. In the end, bears held a slight advantage, especially for large cap (Dow and S&P) and small cap (Russell 2000) indices. Irrespective of the index, all tech, large and small cap indices finished below their 50-day MAs. Not something which will help bulls sleep tonight.

Nasdaq internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] saw some additional weakness with a bearish cross of the 5-day EMA for the Nasdaq Percent of Stocks above 50-day MA ($NAA50R). The other two remained relatively unchanged.

But what does this mean for buyers (or sellers)? Short term, markets were overbought, so a downward swing should be welcomed. The degree of weakness remains to be seen, but a retest of November lows cannot be ruled out. Market internals - not just those of the Nasdaq - are closer to oversold territory, so even a few days of continued weakness will bring these back into strong buying territory for the parent indices (Nasdaq and S&P primarily). A Santa rally still looks the favored bet, but if the last couple of days have scared you then waiting for the 50-day MAs to break on volume would be the best long side option.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.December 11th: The Fed spoke and the market decided it wasn't good. The initial reaction could prove to be as false as the move which resulted in the 2007 market highs (and subsequent collapse). Volume climbed to register a firm distribution day for all the key averages.

Technicals also took a knock. The NASDAQ reversed off its 50-day MA and is heading back to the 200-day MA. Slow stochastics [39,1] and on-balance-volume returned to the bearish side of the fence, but MACD and directional index are still bullish. The NASDAQ 100 created a mini-bull trap and lost its 50-day MA; but technicals held. The Dow sliced through its 50-day MA and dropped below declining resistance. The S&P did likewise, closing just below breakout support (a confirmed break? Perhaps a little too close to call). Technicals for both large cap indices are bullish - but for how long? The Russell 2000 suffered the largest reversal and is the index most vulnerable to entering a more serious long term bear trend. As for the aforementioned indices the 50-day MA again proved to be the stumbling block.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.December 10th: The semiconductor index perhaps derived the most satisfaction from the day with a gain just shy of 1%, enough to keep the NASDAQ at the 50-day MA. Large caps [Dow and S&P] also logged respectable gains, but volume was light. Technicals for the Nasdaq Percent of Stocks above 50-day MA ($NAA50R) all turned green, the first of the three Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] to do so.

With the Fed decision due this week there is unlikely to be too much action until the eventual rate cut is known.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: FLWS never got off the ground, exiting on its tight stop relative to the 200-day MA. It closed for a 2% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.December 7th: A quiet day saw only a ripple in trading action. Volume eased in an unusual day following the release of the jobs report. Bulls will have been pleased the prior day's gains held. Bears will want to see market resistance, such as the 50-day MA for the NASDAQ, play a bigger role on Monday.

There was a net return to bullishness for all supporting indicators in the NASDAQ 100, Dow and S&P. Large cap stocks appear to be stamping their leadership authority on this rally.

Nasdaq internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] were little changed from Thursday and are still oversold enough to suggest further gains are favored. I remain bullish for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.December 6th: Another sound rally from the markets, weakened a little by the lighter volume - but the new higher close for the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Dow, S&P, semiconductor index and Russell 2000 keep in play the rallies started in late November for these averages, breaking the sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Supporting technicals continue to improve, although none have switched 100% bullish for any index. There was a handy close above the 50-day MA for the NASDAQ 100, as the NASDAQ works on a chance to do likewise. The semiconductor index also put in a good days work by cutting above its 20-day MA - a resistance level which it had struggled to break in the past.

The Russell 2000 made a solid move past 730 - 770 congestion, but with declining resistance, 50-day and 200-day MAs overhead it is not out of the woods yet. The Dow did do better as it broke above both its 50-day MA and declining resistance to give it a free run towards a challenge of October 2007 highs - a key test of the strength of the 2002/2003 cyclical bull market. Can the Dow continue this rally? Time will tell. The S&P contributed a similar gain, clearing neckline resistance, 50-day and 200-day MAs, blowing away the bearish scenario detailed in my blog post for the day.

The Nasday Summation Index ($NASI) confirmed a bottom with a bullish cross of its 5-day EMA and 'buy' trigger from its MACD. This followed the earlier signals for the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) and Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MAs ($NAA50R). These internals strengthen the case for a major bottom at November lows - similar to that from August of this year. Will this morph into a significant double bottom? A high volume break of October highs would be needed to confirm such a pattern.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.December 4th: It has been almost a month since I last had broadband access so the next few days will be spent getting the site back up to speed. Today's market was an extension of yesterday's consolidation. Other than the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, volume was light. The Dow and S&P were unchanged with respect to their 200-day MAs, with the Dow bang on its 200-day MA by the close of trading. The Russell 2000 remained inside its support zone with the bullish divergence holding in its CCI. This is a bottom, but not necessarily a bottom incapable of forming a new low (from November) - although history favors a continuation of the nascent rally.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] continued to work towards confirming the November bottom as significant support with the Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) only a couple days away from a confirmed 'buy', following confirmed bottoms from the Nasdaq Percent of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) and Nasdaq Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: For the sake of speed I will only list the stocks which over the past month have exited at their stop prices: FOLD, ASYS, ASTI, GHDX, GLBL, IVZ, MTW, YUM, MA, MIPS, RNOW, COL, ALLI, ALTU, ALVR, ARMHY, BCON, NGA, CDS, CMG, CMNN, PRGX, RAE, DGIT, GSOL, IVAN, SNTKY, SLP.

Stockchart public list - please remember to vote!

Back to top

Disclaimer

The information found on the Fallond Stock Picks Inc. website (www.fallondpicks.com) has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any information in this site without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by Fallond Stock Picks Inc. or any of its employees, Fallond Stock Picks Inc. makes no representations or warranties or takes any responsibility as to the accuracy of completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. accepts no liability to the recipient whatsoever whether in contract, in tort, for negligence, or otherwise for any direct or consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use of the information provided on this website, or of the recipient relying on any such recommendation or information (except insofar as any statutory liability cannot be excluded). Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice. Fallond Stock Picks Inc., or their respective affiliates or their officers, directors, analysts, or employees may have positions in securities referred to herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities mentioned herein. This document does not purport to be a complete description of the securities market or developments to which reference is made. There may be instances when fundamental, technical, and quantitative opinions may not be in concert. There are risks inherent in all investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain persons. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange, rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. and their affiliates make no representation that the companies which issue securities which are the subject of their research reports are subject to, or in compliance with certain informational reporting requirements imposed by the Securities Exchange act of 1934. Sales of securities or services covered in any report or on the web site may be made in only those jurisdictions where such securities or services and Fallond Stock Picks Inc. are qualified for solicitation. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. does not warrant, represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information, content, advertisements, or Third Party Sites and Content (as defined below) (collectively, the "Materials") contained on, distributed through, or linked, downloaded or accessed from Fallondpicks.com, nor the quality of any products, information, or other materials displayed, purchased, or obtained by you as a result of an advertisement or any other information or offer on or in connection with Fallond Stock Picks Inc. You acknowledge that any use of or reliance upon any Materials shall be at your sole risk. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. reserves the right, in its sole discretion and without any obligation, to make modifications to any portion of the Fallondpicks.com web site or publications at any time. You acknowledge and agree that you bear responsibility for your own investment research and investment decisions, and that Fallond Stock Picks Inc. shall not be held liable by you or any others for any decision made or action taken by you or others based upon reliance on or use of information or materials obtained or accessed through use of Fallondpicks.com. Prior to any transaction in securities, you should consult with a qualified professional securities or financial advisor.

Copyright 2004 Fallondpicks.com