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Dec 28th: A boring day where the markets held the status quo. Volume fell from yesterday's insipid trading - reducing further the non-change in the markets. Next week should see some fun. The only point of change came in the bullish cross of the 5-day EMA (on oversold short term stochastics and a bounce in CCI) of the $BPCOMPQ - nothing to get too excited about.

Volatility found some support at the convergence of the 50-day and 20-day MAs. A good time for a spike in fear?

Target hit: none

Stop hit: TGA was a Subscirber pick for December 11th which failed to deliver on its Breakout. The play closed for a 9% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click HereDec 27th: Although the Dow 12,500 was the star of CNBC, it was the Russell 2000 which took the honor awards. A good day for small caps saw a new closing high and a resumption of its position as leading index {Small caps > Large caps > Tech indices}. Large caps [Dow and S&P] also closed on new highs, but gains in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 weren't enough to reverse the channel breakdown in the latter index, or the 20-day MA in the former. For the S&P I have redrawn the former rising channel (see the chart on my Stockchart.com Public list linked on the website) to include the most recent reaction low.

The other point of strength for the Russell 2000 was the increasing bullishness in its technicals; the bearish divergence in the CCI was breached and there was a bullish cross in trend strength (+DI > -DI). However, all indices still remain contained by the bearish divergences in their respective MACDs.

Volatility skipped lower as resistance marked by the 200-day MA came into effect.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: none

Newsletter, Members Click HereDec 26th: There were a couple of changes in the indices over the Friday and St. Stephen's Day/Boxing Day trading. The NASDAQ 100 lost support from the sideways channel to bring the index back to October resistance, now support of 1,730; the losses were also enough to break the 50-day MA - leaving the 200-day MA at 1,646 the next logical place to look for a test of support. Given the ever increasing technical weakness in both the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ, I would look to the NASDAQ to follow suit of the NASDAQ 100 and break its channel support and 50-day MA. Trader Mike has a different opinion as he favors an oversold bounce in the NASDAQ (the NASDAQ found support at its 50-day MA and sideways channel).

Bearish divergences in the MACDs of large cap [Dow and S&P] increased in strength as fresh 'sell' triggers saw a redrawing of the divergences.

Volume was never going to inspire and is unlikely to improve until the new year rolls in. However, there was enough selling volume to see bearish crosses in on-balance-volume for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. Large cap [Dow and S&P] indices look likely to do the same over the coming days. Volatility is well placed to go on a run, but with it nestled against resistance of the 200-day MA a period of low volatility looks favored before the party kicks off (ties in with the holiday season). The other change came in a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA in the tech market internal, $NAA50 - but its supporting technicals are very bearish.

The only index to come out smelling a little better was the Russell 2000 as it managed a decent bounce off its 50-day MA. Its technicals still side with the bears but it keeps the uptrend intact and another few days of gains like today would fix up the technical picture.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: CALD hit its stop during Tuesday's intraday swing. It closed on a bullish doji after a positive test of the 50-day MA, but for my purposes the November 21st Breakout closed for a 10% loss. ENER hit its stop, ending a 3-month sideways consolidation after a failed breakout and loss of 50-day and 200-day MAs. The September 29th Breakout play closed for a 10% loss. STEM disappointed after pre-election gains. The stock featured as a Breakout for October 30th and a Subscriber pick for October 17th; the latter closed for a 4% gain after posting gains as high as 40% at one stage. The former Breakout play closed for an 11% loss. However, it may find support at the 200-day MA - where it closed Tuesday. PRGX hit its swing trade stop - ending a short play from the pennant breakdown; the December 8th play closed for a 4% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click HereDec 20th: There was very little to add to Tuesday's action. My chief interest remains the tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] as their supporting technicals continue to drop like a stone (chiefly the ultimate oscillator, but also bullish trend strength [+DI]). Long standing bearish divergences in the MACDs of $NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ don't look likely to break upside any time soon. Weak technicals will keep the tech market internals in their current declines, which in itself will break the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. It is not a question of 'if', but 'when'.

Although the indices are unlikely to change too much before 2007 rolls in, one can look forward to an exciting January - one way or the other. The next list will be sent on December 26th. Have a great Christmas!

Target hit: none

Stop hit: ISLE suffered a roller coaster day as an upgrade by Matrix research in the morning was offset by a ruling preventing the company from building casinos in Pennsylvania, which sent the stock sharply lower. The December 4th Subscriber pick closed for an 8% loss. The volatile penny play RHWC pushed back to its 50-day MA to close the December 19th Subscriber pick for a 15% loss. UMPQ hit its stop on Tuesday - but I forgot to include it yesterday. The December 18th Subscriber pick closed for a 3% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click HereDec 19th: The Russell 2000 completed its 50-day MA test, while the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 fell only a few points short of doing likewise. The semiconductor index finished on the 50-day MA, but large cap indices [Dow and S&P] have plenty of room below before they attempt similar tests. On my Stockchart.com charts I have drawn in new sideways channels for the two tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] which has support for the NASDAQ at 2,400 and the NASDAQ 100 at 1,770. Volume climbed to register a distribution day for the NASDAQ, but the higher volume ranked as an accumulation day for the S&P. It looks like this years Santa rally is to be a large cap [Dow and S&P] event only.

As a sidenote, 50% of the Breakout plays featured for December have already hit their stop prices; when leadership falters it isn't long before the malaise spreads.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: FTEK featured as a Breakout for October 20th, November 8th, and December 6th, and as a Subscriber pick for October 9th. The most recent stop was clipped on Tuesday's intraday swing. The latter play closed for a 40% gain, while the Breakout picks closed for a 28% gain, flat, and for an 8% loss. MAG broke from its tight intraday trading to open out with a test of the 50-day MA. The October 17th and November 14th Breakout plays closed for a 22% gain and a 3% loss. An earlier April 21st Subscriber pick closed for a 28% gain. BNI continues to consolidate in its broadening wedge, but in the process of doing so hit its December 13th Subscriber play stop for a 2% loss. CTSH hit its December 1st Subscriber pick stop for a 5% loss - it should be noted, the stock did manage to find support at the 50-day MA which held as support during a previous test in November. ICON reversed its December 8th breakout for a 5% loss.

Model portfolio: GMST and TGA added.

Newsletter, Members Click HereDec 18th: Monday saw more serious technical damage done to the indices. The Russell 2000 cleanly sliced through channel support, following the NASDAQ, Dow, and NASDAQ 100 which had similar channel breaks earlier during the month. Only the S&P has stuck with its channel support. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 pulled away from resistance, thereby failing to match large cap indices [Dow and S&P] in their breakouts. Volume declined from Friday - which may be some consolation for bulls. Although rising channels started in July/August are toast (I am not expecting the S&P to hold out for long), it would not be outside the realms of possibility to see a period of sideways action with tests of the 50-day MAs the most probable short term move for the markets.

Supporting technicals for the indices remain weak and weakening. This would suggest any sideways period for the markets will be short-lived and supply/selling issues will take precedence and push the markets down beyond their 50-day MAs.

Fueling the downside pressure is an increase in the bearishness of tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ]. The $NAA50 took the brunt of Monday's weakness as it cut below triangle support. The $BPCOMPQ started to gently rollover, but its supporting technicals - the ultimate oscillator in particular, are sharply lower. The $NASI is comfortably following a declining trend and is well on course to test its short term target of -38 (some 150 points to go).

Target hit: none

Stop hit: NSTC hit its stop after reversing its December 12th breakout. The stock also featured earlier as a Subscriber pick for November 20th. The former play closed for a 6% loss, the latter for a 2% gain. NUE suffered a similar fate as it lost out on its December 5th Breakout, closing for a 9% loss while the two earlier Subscriber picks from October 25th and the September 27th closed with a 6% loss and 17% gain respectively. The DLIA swing trade from December 15th was stopped out for a 1% loss as the pennant broadened out into a sideways channel. MIKR crashed through its stop on a huge one-day loss (29%) following earnings. The December 12th Subscriber play closed for a 13% loss. TTI was another failed breakout - this time a Subscriber one; the stock featured for October 16th and December 15th - the former exited for a 9% gain and the latter for a 5% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click HereDec 16th: Given the day that was in it (options expiration), I will open with a link to a blog which monitors the $NASI and $NYSI; what is interesting about this blog are the MACD settings used to mark reversals. In each of the charts there is a strong case for a top in the McClellan Summation index for both the Nasdaq [$NASI] and NYSE [$NYSI]. But, I have harped on this for a long (long!) time...so it is good to see this appear somewhere else with a slightly different slant. It has been a great run, with the rate of buying defined by the channels created from July lows, but I would be happier seeing some release of tension with a swathe of good-ol' fashioned profit taking - even if this meant the rally pushed higher afterwards. A shift in leadership is needed to get fresh money working.

Friday's volume related to options expiration, but tight trading kept markets net neutral with only an upside cross of the 5-day EMA in the $NAA50 the only change on the technical/market internal front. Volatility surged to leave a bullish engulfing pattern for the indicator, but there are plenty of resistance points overhead - so I wouldn't read too much into it yet.

I am bearish for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: CSTR finally bit the dust after what looked to be a spate of profit taking; the stock featured as a Breakout for July 31st, August 30th, September 14th, and November 9th; each play closed for a 24% gain, 14% gain, 8% gain, and a 1% loss. JOBS clipped its stop; the stock featured for as a Subscriber pick for November 14th, and as a Breakout for November 22nd; the latter play closed for a 6% loss and the former play for a 2% gain. DLIA broadened its pennant to clip its raised December 5th stop price; the Subscriber pick closed for a 7% gain.

Newsletter, Members Click HereDec 14th: A strong day on the face of it still left some unresolved issues. Key amongst which was the failure of Thursday's gains to regain support of the former rising channels in the NASDAQ, Dow [CNBC reinstated their all-time closing high ticker - a bad omen if ever there was one], and NASDAQ 100. Bulls will have been pleased with the higher volume accumulation day for all indices which will have offset some of the aforementioned disappointment. Gains in the Dow and S&P were enough to push the indices to new highs - the S&P is looking particularly good given it has yet to fall out of its rising channel (July-December). The Russell 2000 also took a step back from the edge as it pushed higher off support. Summary: Indices favor the bulls.

Technically, there were positive crossovers in bullish (+DI) and bearish (-DI) trend strength for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, but each crossover came as part of bearish divergences in bullish trend strength. Tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] gained in relative strength to small caps [Russell 2000], weakening the overall picture {Large caps > Tech Indices > Small caps}. Finally, the MACD of the Dow generated a 'buy' trigger, but the bearish divergence in its MACD trigger line has yet to be breached. Summary: Technicals side with the bears.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] followed with a bearish cross of the 5-day EMA in the $BPCOMPQ and a sharp downtick in its Ultimate Oscillator. Bearish divergences in the MACD trigger lines for the $BPCOMPQ, $NAA50, and $NASI remain firmly intact. Volatility also continued to slide as it made new lows for the year. Summary: Tech market internals favor the bears.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: NL hit its stop from December 5th to close the Breakout play for a 7% loss. An earlier July 18th Subscriber play closed for a 13% gain.

Newsletter, Members Click HereDec 12th: The Fed lack-of-decision didn't budge the market on a point scale, but did do enough to register distribution days for the NASDAQ, Dow, NASDAQ 100, and S&P. There were no fresh channel breaks to report, although a sizable bearish divergence in the CCI of the Russell 2000 is clearly evident along with the divergence in the MACD trigger line. The index broke through support on an intraday basis, but did enough to close at support - will tomorrow be different?

Markets are aligned in a more bearish fashion with respect to relative strength: Large caps > Small caps > Tech indices. Volatility reacted strongly to the downside (so as to speak, i.e. markets became less volatile) and the $NAA50 reversed yesterday's bullish cross of the 5-day EMA, but left the larger consolidation triangle remained intact.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: CCK hit the December 7th raised stop at the lows of the day, although the stock did close on a bullish engulfing pattern keeping the original trendl intact; for those looking to hold a little longer one should run a stop on a loss of the 50-day MA. The stock featured as a Breakout for August 4th and September 28th, December 7th, and as a Subscriber pick for July 19th, November 9th. The three Breakout plays closed for a 20% gain, 11% gain, and a 1% loss. The two Subscriber picks closed for a 26% gain and a 5% gain respectively. DE hit its December 7th Breakout stop for a 4% loss; an earlier November 22nd Subscriber play closed for a 1% loss. EIX featured as a Subscriber pick for September 26th and December 6th and as a Breakout for October 23rd; the stock hit its stop intraday to close the two Subscriber picks for a 9% gain and a 2% loss. The Breakout play closed for a 5% gain.

Newsletter, Members Click HereDec 11th: Modest gains across the board with only the NASDAQ registering an accumulation day. There was no additional technical damage and tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] were little changed on the day. The $NAA50 pushed a bullish cross of its 5-day EMA in what is now looking to be 3-month consolidation triangle; a breakout move (when it comes) has a projected move of 400 points.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: ARJ hit its December 6th Breakout stop price. The stock also featured for Subscribers on October 31st. The Breakout play closed for a 4% loss and the latter a 3% loss. IMMR clipped its stop illustrated below (on the website front page) to close the October 2nd Breakout play for a breakeven return. PRGX hit the swing trade stop price for the November 8th Subscriber play (but the recommended swing trade remains in play as a result). The November 8th position closed for a 12% gain.

Newsletter, Members Click HereDec 10th: Weak gains on Friday's data did little to give back to the bulls the ground they ceded to the bears on Thursday. Plenty of support below but the July-December rising channels have been breached in the NASDAQ, Dow, and NASDAQ 100, only those channels in the Russell 2000 and S&P remain. The semiconductor index took the biggest hit Friday, but none of the indices suffered significant technical damage on the day and it is only the weakness in tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] which suggest a significant top is close to been in place (if not in place already). To once again repeat a mantra, I am 'stuck' on the bearish side of the fence for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll on the 30-day picture.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: GFI clipped its raised stop at the lows of the day. The October 18th and December 1st Subscriber plays closed for a 3% gain and a 6% loss respectively.

Newsletter, Members Click HereDec 7th: Markets suffered a little more at the hand of the bears, but Friday's data could shuffle things up for bulls or bears. The NASDAQ 100 lost out more so than the NASDAQ as channel support was clearly breached to the downside. Volume increased to register a distribution day for both indices. The semiconductor index suffered a bearish engulfing pattern as the index closed on the 20-day MA. The Dow continued to struggle below former channel support, now resistance, and lost ground relative to the NASDAQ 100. Both it and the S&P registered distribution days, but there was limited technical damage done to the S&P. The Russell 2000 also escaped the day relatively unscathed.

Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] saw a bearish cross of the 5-day EMA in the $NAA50, a counter to Wednesday's MACD trigger 'buy'. But the big change was the rapid rise in volatility, which ran over the last 6-days of declines - markets look ready for a period of fear. The 200-day MA is the next challenge for volatility.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: Thursday's weakness crept into some of the existing plays. ADS first featured as a Subscriber pick for October 20th and as a Breakout for November 13th and December 6th. The Subscriber feature closed for a 7% gain, the latter plays for a 3% gain and a 2% loss. BLDP hit its stop after suffering 6 straight days of declines, cutting below both its 50-day and 200-day MAs. The stock featured as a Breakout for October 24th and closed flat.

Newsletter, Members Click HereDec 6th: A day much like Tuesday, instead this time the markets closed down instead of up. Volume eased and other than some strength in the semiconductor index there was little else to report. The only other change came in the MACD trigger line of the $NAA50 which switched to a "buy" signal; but the indicator itself remains bound by support/resistance.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: HUB reversed its recent breakout to hit its raised stop from December 4th. The Breakout play closed for a 3% loss; the two earlier Subscriber picks for September and October closed for an 8% and 4% gain respectively.

Newsletter, Members Click HereDec 5th: No major change from Monday. The tech averages [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] closed on small dojis; an ideal swing trade play - trade break of the days high/lows. Their higher volume has more in common with churning than bullish buying. The semiconductor index cleared its bullish flag on a small gap open, but it ended the day on a bearish inverse hammer; a close below Monday's lows would confirm. The Dow ended higher, but was unable to finish with a new closing high. Unlike the S&P which did finish on a new closing high, and generated a fresh MACD trigger 'buy' (although the 1-month old MACD bearish divergence remain for this index). The Russell 2000 ended on a small doji of its own - another swing trade opportunity. Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] finished little changed on the day. Volatility remains a ticking time bomb; bulls beware.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: CNQR didn't get out of the gates from its Subscriber feature for today and hit its stop for a 7% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click HereDec 4th: Wow! Bulls just don't want to capitulate. Bulls continued to drive small caps [Russell 2000] and large caps [S&P] to new highs; better still was the affirmation of rising channels for these indices, the Russell 2000 in particular, but also the NASDAQ 100 too. The semiconductor index is shaping a bullish flag as it develops a test of the 200-day MA. Tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] didn't quite have the juice to follow suit with new highs of their own, and the Dow remained stuck below its former channel support (now resistance). But these are small gripes. Volume increased to register bullish accumulation days for the Dow, NASDAQ 100, and S&P.

Technically, there are still concerns with bearish divergences in the MACD trigger lines of the NASDAQ, Dow, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, S&P and semiconductor index. These are warnings signs, but not direct sell signals. Certainly, there is greater risk to be buying at these levels. On-balance-volume has remained in the bullish court since August crosses of the 20-day MA trigger line and no index is close to making a bearish cross of this line yet. The markets made a return to their bullish alignment as Tech averages jumped Large cap indices with respect to relative strength: Small caps > Tech Indices > Large cap indices. The tick error in the semiconductor index has been corrected as have the resulting impacts on the technicals.

Market internals made short term improvements with bullish crosses of the 5-day EMAs for the $BPCOMPQ and $NAA50, but its the bearish divergences in their MACD trigger lines which is the issue at hand. I am watching for bearish markers in the parent tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] which will correspond to the topping nature of the market internals. Monday (and to a lesser degree, Friday) put paid to what was starting to look like a bearish reversal in the markets.

A good day for the bulls.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: none

Newsletter, Members Click HereDec 3rd: Bears made a follow on push to Monday's losses, but bulls were able to make enough of a stand to keep certain support levels intact. The NASDAQ broke below channel support but was able to hold former October resistance, now support, of 2,381. This support was undermined a little by the reversal of relative strength compared to large caps [S&P]; markets don't perform as well when large caps are leading. The Dow was less lucky as was unable to regain former channel suport but was able to gain against the NASDAQ 100 with respect to relative strength. However, the NASDAQ 100 was able to hold its channel support (unlike the NASDAQ) and even though it gave up position relative to small caps [Russell 2000] it still holds in favor of the bulls. The Russell 2000 was also able to hold channel support as it continues to perform above expectations (my expectations were for a sharp out performance from large caps relative to small caps). It also held its ground against the NASDAQ, keeping it as the leading index: {Small caps > Large caps > Tech Indices: Neutral and weakening}. The semiconductor index held support of the 50-day and 200-day (and perhaps the 20-day) MAs, but there was an apparent large tick error for the day.

The tick error in the semiconductor index weakened the technicals significantly (but again, this looks to be a reaction to the tick error). Other indices maintained their weakening technical picture as bearish divergences in the MACDs of the NASDAQ, Dow, NASDAQ 100 (to a lesser degree), and S&P held. On-balance-volume of these indices hold to strong accumulation, but bullish trend strength (+DI) is wavering, so it won't be long before bears are calling the shots (if not doing so already).

The key bearish action remains in the tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] as long standing bearish divergences in their MACDs hold (we are now heading into their third month of existence). The bullish divergences from May-July sparked the latter year rally, there is good reason to argue for the reverse happening now. Contributing to this weakness is deeply oversold volatility; a sharp spike in this indicator usually corresponds to a fearful period in the markets and sharp downside. Adding to the weakness were bearish crosses of the 5-day EMAs in the $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ.

There should be no surprise to see me bearish for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll.

Target hit: none

Stop hit: ARRY finally fell to its raised November 29th stop, even though it closed on a bullish hammer. The stock featured as Breakouts for October 17th and November 13th, and as a Subscriber picks for August 30th and November 29th. The two breakout plays closed for a 42% gain and a 7% gain respectively; the Subscriber picks closed for a 60% gain and a 3% loss respectively. CTCH fell to its raised stop. The stock featured twice as a Breakout for September 29th and November 21st and each closed for a 16% gain and a 5% loss respectively. HA hit its raised stop after 5 days of declines; the August 9th, October 16th, and November 16th Breakout plays closed for a 29% gain, 13% gain, and a 6% loss respectively. STTX drifted into its stop 4-months after it featured as a Breakout; the July 26th play closed for a 19% loss after posting early gains of 16%. VLTS was a high risk Subscriber pick from October 11th which failed to pay off; although the penny stock pushed gains of 91%, it eventually closed for a 30% loss - the largest closed play ever for a Subscriber pick (there are a couple of 'open' plays with larger losses).

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