Dec 30th: Markets finished the week as they started it; down. The tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] suffered the greatest losses as the NASDAQ finished on, and the NASDAQ
100 below, its 50-day MA. Both large cap stocks [Dow and S&P] closed below near term support but are still a few points above their respective 50-day MAs. The only index to escape relatively unscathed was the Russell
2000, although it has underperformed over the past couple of months. Its current position has more to do with other indices falling to its level rather than the Russell
2000 rising to meet the declines of its competing markets. Technically there was a switch to red in the NASDAQ
100, but the remaining markets are clinging to November bullishness. Of the secondary tech indicators only the technicals of the $NAA50 shifted in favor of the bears (although the $NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ are all on bearish 5-day EMA triggers - associated technicals provide a confirmation on the health of markets during the intermediate term, rather than short term measures as marked by the 5-day EMAs). The New Year could see some short term bullishness given the declines of the 'Santa rally' and the oversold nature of the markets. Those looking at the intermediate and longer term should remain skeptical.
Gold and silver prices look to have completed relief bounces with few of the associated precious metal stocks moving to new highs. Be careful if you are looking to buy into this sector and your time frame is short term.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: ILA featured as a breakout for December 19th but gapped down at the open to hit its stop for a 5% loss. DEX was a breakout feature for June 24th and August 3rd. The two plays closed for a 13% and 4% gain respectively. The subscriber June 14th pick closed for a 15% gain. GLBC hit its stop after two days of selling. The December 28th breakout play closed for a 9% loss; the November 15th subscriber play closed for a modest 2% gain. NINE closed on a bullish hammer after a morning gap down; the loss was enough to hit its stop price. The December 28th play closed for a 10% loss. RNWK was a subscriber pick for May 6th and a breakout play for November 18th. The subscriber play closed for a 11% gain and the breakout pick for an 8% loss. VRTX finally hit its raised stop but the stock still has longside merits given the strong close. If still holding run a do-or-die stop on a loss of today's lows. The August 22nd, November 8th, and December 14th plays closed for a 43% gain, 10% gain, and 1% loss respectively. KEYW was a subscriber pick for December 29th; the stock closed strong so there is still long side merits here but for my purposes it is a stop hit for a 3% loss. NTRT clearly breached support and is a firm stop loss. The December 28th subscriber play closed for a
Dec 29th: Today's damage was brought to you by the tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100]. It was the only show in town as the large caps [Dow and S&P] traded lightly. Unfortunately the NASDAQ
100 followed through on the break its bear flag, closing just above its 50-day MA - the only index to test this important intermediate (3 week-6 month) support level. Its saving grace was light volume; a mix of holiday trading and trader apathy (never a good thing). Market technicals of all indices remain in line with those of a bullish consolidation and these are unlikely to change until the middle of next week. Of the secondary market indicators only the $BPCOMPQ registered a 'buy' trigger, all 0.01 point of it, but this was contrary to the declines in the $NASI and $NAA50, not to mention the tech markets.
Target hit: MFLX breached $39.92 resistance on heavy volume to mark a new breakout, but in the process of doing so it hit its target price. If you wish to continue to hold I would look for a price target of $62 (a measured move target) and run stops on a loss of $42. The November 8th play closed for a 50% gain.
Stop hit: none
Dec 28th: Tuesday's losses stalled at December reaction lows as the few buyers willing to participate this week propped up the indices. Bulls were unable to make much inroads into the prior days losses, leaving markets net bearish on the day. The NASDAQ closed above key support marked by August highs, similar to the action in the semiconductor index. Unfortunately the Russell
2000 is losing ground to August highs which mark resistance. Secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] declines accelerated, confirming the bearishness of markets in general. Nothing to get excited about here.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: AUDC hit it stop after the gap down on Tuesday. The low volume correction could still find support at $10.50. Featured to Subscribers on December 16th and as a Breakout for December 23rd. CHE hit its stop as it closed the day on a bullish hammer; current holders shouldn't accept a loss below Wednesday's lows. The stock featured as a breakout for October 31st and November 23rd.
Dec 27th: Santa wasn't going to play along with a rally as resistance stopped the (so-called) expected advance. Fibonacci retracements look favored for the correction with a measured move target of 2,190 in the NASDAQ, and 1,633 in the NASDAQ
100. The large caps remain inside their respective ranges; 1,250-1,275 in the S&P, and 10,720-10,960 in the Dow. The small caps also trade inside a 670-690 range although last weeks bearish wedge could see a measured move down to 663. Volume was light, as could be expected during the holidays, and it is still to early to suggest this is the start of a New Year sell off. Secondary markets [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] are back in the red with the $BPCOMPQ right on the EMA trigger line. The intermediate term trend remains bearish but a quick move into marked Fibonacci zones could set up a decent relief bounce opportunity.
Target hit: REGN which featured as a Subscriber pick for October 25th and hit its target price (with further upside likely; $22 looks to be next on the menu) for a 49% gain.
Stop hit: APL was a Subscriber pick for December 23rd which sliced through its tight stop for a 1% loss. USMO clipped its stop as it shapes a broader handle; the December 19th Subscriber play closed for a 4% loss.
Model portfolio: CTSH added. CTCH target and stop price raised.
Dec 22nd: Next weeks supposed Santa rally got off to an early start. This time bulls were able to hold the gains they chalked up Wednesday morning, but couldn't hold into end-of-day. The S&P looks best placed to follow through given it held support throughout the recent correction. In addition, the Russell
2000 and Dow closed over the 20-day MA; watch the small caps for fresh leadership. The techs have started to lag a little with both the NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100 beneath their 20-day MAs. However, the NASDAQ
100 may have put in place a bear trap much like it did in October - aggressive buyers can look for a move to 1,709 and potentially beyond; confirmation will come on a break of on-balance-volume resistance. Of the secondary indicators; the $NAA50 switched back in favor of the bulls and only its MACD is needed to confirm the reversal; the two remaining secondary indicators [$NASI, and $BPCOMPQ] are still bearish and therefore the intermediate term trend remains down.
Target hit: SNE was a Subscriber oversold play from October 14th. The play rallied to hit its target price for an 18% gain.
Stop hit: SPOP was bought out for $0.7035 a share by the Hain Celestial Group. This play closed for a 1% loss. It featured for November 9th. IJK was a subscriber pick for December 20th and hit its stop for a 2% loss. PLAY was a longstanding short play from October 19th. The play had reached a maximum gain of 30%, just $2 shy of its target price, before rallying to hit its stop for a 8% loss.
Dec 21st: Markets were unable to hold on to early day gains with the exception of the Russell
2000. Volume dropped from the previous day as the second day of the strike, and the holidays, took their toll on trader interest. Secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] were mixed as the $NAA50 gained, only for the $NASI to chalk a loss while the $BPCOMPQ remained unchanged. However, the MACD trigger line of the $BPCOMPQ did switch to a 'sell', confirming the earlier cross of the 5-day EMA by the indicator. Tech markets [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] spent another day below their respective 20-day MA as slow stochastics fell outside of overbought conditions (i.e. strong bullish momentum). The Dow struggled below its 20-day MA as strong supply was readily apparent from the series of candlesticks with long upper shadows (i.e difference between open-close range and the highs of the day). The S&P was slightly better off as it closed the day at the 20-day MA and above nearest resistance. At least in the short term there is a good chance of a rally to test December highs (the last vestiges of a 'Santa rally') but new 52-week highs look unlikely at this stage with only a few trading days left to close the year out; 2006 will be a whole new ball game.
Target hit: GGR was a Breakout feature for November 21st reached its target for a 67% gain.
Stop hit: NKE was a big disappointment, selling off immediately after its breakout. The stock was down on news of a drop in future orders. The December 15th play closed for a 5% loss. TGE was an oversold play from November 15th which hit its stop for a 7% gain and a breakout for December 13th which closed for a 11% loss.
Dec 20th: The transport strike in New York kept some traders away and those who turned up to work were likely disappointed on the days action. Expect more of the same for Wednesday, with Christmas fast approaching and many traders thinking of the upcoming break there was unlikely to be any big follow through to the previous day's sell off. Secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] logged another day of declines which were heavier than the corresponding losses in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100. The S&P held support for another day but the Dow took another step towards 10,708 and/or the 50-day MA. As for stocks to buy there wasn't much on the menu.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: CHB featured for November 18th and to Subscribers on September 1st. The Breakout play closed for a 6% loss and the Subscriber pick for 4% gain. CIG featured as a Breakout play for November 30th and closed for a 9% loss. DLP was a long standing Breakout play from August 25th 2004, and closed for a 9% loss. NUVA clipped its stop but remains bullish, place new stops at loss of 50-day MA. The stock featured for December 7th and closed for a 5% loss.
Dec 19th: Friday's modest hole in the dam spread into a torrent as the tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] crashed down to the lower Bollinger bands, helped in part by the collapse in the semiconductor index. The days action was enough to trigger a sell in the $BPCOMPQ which left all three [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] in the red and confirmed a switch in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. The large caps are the only indices holding on to the last vestiges of the Santa rally; the S&P managed a test of former resistance while the Dow confirmed last Friday's and Thursday's gravestone dojis including a break of the 20-day MA. The Russell
2000 continued its fast track decline and looks destined to test the 50-day MA.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: ARRX featured for November 7th and November 30th. The two plays closed for a 1% and 6% loss. CYMI featured for October 20th and December 2nd. The October play closed for a 3% gain and the December feature closed for a 7% loss. GCO suffered its third day of consecutive losses after featuring on December 8th, it closed for a 6% loss. PCYC was destroyed after an early 13% gain (it featured for December 8th) was snatched away on Monday's gap down for a 64% loss. FADV was a Subscriber pick for December 8th which hit its raised stop of $29.22 for a 2% gain. IJK was a Subscriber pick from November 14th which has been switched to a reverse play. TCB was a Subscriber pick from December 15th and closed for a 5% loss.
Dec 17th: The weakness which first appeared in the Russell
2000 spread to both the tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] as each lost their respective 20-day MAs. Options expiration will have disguised the importance (if any) of Friday's heavy volume, but going on the QQQQs, this volume was light. All is not lost for the tech markets; the semiconductor index is bumping along resistance but is above its 20-day MA, as the $BPCOMPQ gained. The strength in latter indicator runs contrary to the $NASI and $NAA50 which sit firmly in the bear camp. Intermediate term traders will likely have bailed on Friday's action, but long term holders could wait for confirmation of weakness in the $BPCOMPQ which so far has indicated little. Large caps were more mixed as breakouts from earlier during the week held into Friday, but the Dow has put in a sequence of two gravestone dojis (confirmation will come on a close below the lowest of the two days lows) and the S&P remained bound by 1,275 resistance. Interesting was the drop in volatility which sits very close to a breakdown to new all-time lows. I don't expect such a move (if it was to come) to last long given how oversold the volatility index is already; an increase in volatility is going to hurt the market if it is accompanied by selling. I am holding on to the long signal of November 2nd for now, but market indicators are at levels which no longer favor further upside. Be prepared, something Big looks to be in the works.
Gold and silver had an interesting week; the rapid pullback to $500 for gold and $8.50 silver looks to be an over correction and metal prices are perhaps the best value if looking to put money to work. Investors could find value in stocks like BGO, PAAS, and SIL, or follow sector leaders like KGC, GFI, and AEM.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: KEX featured as a Breakout for October 28th but hit its raised stop for a 3% loss. TOMO was a Breakout for November 14th but hit its stop after 4 straight days of losses. The play closed for a 9% loss. BOY was a Subscriber play from December 12th but reversed through prior support to hit its stop for a 4% loss. BW was a Subscriber play from December 2nd and hit its stop for a 4% loss. NTG was a recent Subscriber play for December 14th - has potential as a short play. The long play closed for a 2% loss. PDC was a Subscriber play for December 16th and closed for a 3% loss.
Model portfolio: ABMC sold.
Dec 15th: The first chink in the armor of the recent consolidation appeared in the Russell
2000 as tight action over recent days gave way to selling. The 20-day MA still holds as support in this index, but the former rising channel has been decisively broken and technicals continue to weaken. The tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] held station for another day, but tech secondary indicators, $NASI and $NAA50, weakened with 'sell' signals in their respective MACD trigger lines. For the $NAA50 there was a crossover of the 5-day EMA which does not look to be a whipsaw signal, but does need confirmation from the $NASI and $BPCOMPQ. I have turned more neutral on December action with the prior trend dominating (giving an edge to the bulls but with less certainty of an upside break). The large caps closed flat on the day on lighter volume as the prior two days of gains are digested. The Nov 2nd long signal holds but selling now would bank profits and could prove to be the smart move two or three months down the road.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: APOG hit it stop after a substantial reversal through support following earnings. The stock featured for December 6th and closed for a 1% loss. CMT was a Breakout play for December 5th and closed for an 8% loss. LYTS was a Breakout feature for December 9th and a Subscriber pick for September 7th. The Breakout play closed for an 8% loss and the Subscriber pick for an 8% gain. WBSN featured as a Breakout for December 5th and a Subscriber pick for October 27th. The Breakout feature closed for a 4% loss and the Subscriber pick for a 7% gain.
Dec 14th: Large caps stole the show as the Dow broke its bullish flag to the upside and the S&P closed the day at new multi-year highs. Will large caps take the role of leadership from the previously dominant tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100]? One indicator I have not mentioned too much about is the $SPXA50 (number of S&P stocks over their 50-day MA); this indicator can be found on my free breakout and subscriber pages. It currently sits at 445 which has exceeded its prior high of 421 from July. When the indicator hit its July high the S&P topped just over a month later. Volume was light in all markets, which slightly takes the gloss off large cap performance, although the failure of bears to follow up on Tuesday's selling was a tick in the bull column. Tech secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] racked up another series of gains with the exception of the $NAA50 which is exhibiting more potent topping action than in previous whipsaw signals; the 'sell' signal in the MACD been most telling in this regard.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: POS featured for October 28th and November 11th as a Breakout play. The position closed for a 4% gain and a 4% loss respectively.
Dec 13th: Markets initially liked the Fed decision but it wasn't all plain sailing. All markets gained on higher volume, but only the S&P was able to register a resistance breakout (although the highs of the bearish 'shooting star' remain as potential supply for any upside follow through). The rapid rise triggered by the fed decision was gradually scaled back by traders selling into strength. Wednesday's action will be important; further losses will convert Tuesday's volume into supply and could pressurize the 20-day MAs which have held as support up to now. A break of the 20-day MAs will bring the lower Bollinger Bands into play. Secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] all gained, but the MACD of the $NAA50 followed its CCI with a 'sell' trigger. The $NASI remains most vulnerable to follow the $NAA50 with a MACD 'sell' signal of its own. For now the November 2nd long signal is intact and the prior trend (bullish) is in control until there is a confirmed reversal.
Target hit: RTK was a Subscriber pick from November 18th which reached its target for a 29% gain. Further gains looks likely - place stops on a loss of $3.68 if looking to hold for more.
Stop hit: CYCL was stung following news it needed to restate 2005 results. The stock made solid heavy volume gains to recover some of yesterday's losses but the declines were sufficient to sweep the stop out. The stock featured as a breakout for November 3rd. CVO featured as a Breakout for December 9th and as Subscriber pick for August 24th and November 11th. The Breakout closed for a 4% loss, the Subscriber plays closed for a 40% gain and a 13% gain respectively. The stock looks to be in consolidation and further upside can't be ruled out, but for the purpose of my analysis it is considered a stop hit. OCR featured recently for December 12th as a Breakout but undercut new support to reverse the move, it closed for a 2% loss. AMFI was a Subscriber pick for December 12th and closed for a 1% loss - although the stock remains in consolidation and still has longside potential on a break of $32. CALP was another Subscriber play stopped out although its consolidation remains bullish; buy break of $7.20. The stock featured for November 21st and closed for a 4% loss. The short play of EWQ reversed a $1 shy of its target to close with a 4% loss. The stock featured for October 13th. OATS was a Subscriber pick for December 6th and was toasted for an 8% loss.
Dec 12th: Stockcharts is down once again (at least member services and the public stockchart list are). Tomorrow's upcoming fed meeting did enough to keep any major move under wraps. Tech secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] all gained on the day maintaining the bullish momentum from before. A fed sell off is unlikely to last long as market indicators look to favor further upside; but there is a slowing of the bullish momentum, most notably in the exponential moving averages of the $NASI and $BPCOMPQ which will be reflected in 'sell' signals in the MACD (i.e. a MACD trigger line cross). November 2nd long signal holds for another day.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: There were picks which hit their stop price but I can't pull the list up.
Dec 11th: Markets spent the week digesting their big October and November gains. The attempted break of late November resistance failed in all markets, but the swift decline which often follows such reversals ('bull traps') never materialized. It will have been apparent to my subscribers that my suggested short plays for the last couple of weeks have drawn a blank; never short a dull market and this looks to be holding true. So is an intermediate term (3-9 month) top in place? Given the lackluster performance in the short plays, and continued strength in the tech secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] the answer would look to be 'No'. The 20-day MAs have held as support in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ
100, and S&P with the previously underperforming small caps lingering close to major resistance, and well above its 20-day MA. Only the Dow looks to be struggling but even here there is major support at 10,708. At this stage another leg up can't be excluded. Gold and Silver continued their strong runs, pushing past psychological $500 resistance. The next pullback in these metals will likely be a great buying opportunity. Watch the 20- and 50-day MAs; the latter MA should provide the better buying opportunity. We are about 4-years into a 20-35 year commodity bull cycle. This first 4-year cycle is close to an end (the parabolic runs in the two metals would look to suggest an important top will be in place soon), but the following 4-year cycle will be the one for the investors to climb aboard as the speculators move to the next hot market. In the precious metal sector the silver stocks look better value: SSRI and SIL should be watched for buying opportunities. For the record, I have been dollar-cost averaging (investing) into GFI, and copper producer PCU.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: ITMN was a short play from November 30th which hit its stop after an earlier break of its 50-day MA. My recent short plays have failed to shine - markets may be near an important top, but we are not at a point where bears are in control.
Model porfolio: ABMC added
Dec 8th: Intel's negative tone set after the market closed Thursday should pressure the tech [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] 20-day MA's for a second day in a row. Thursday's breakdown of the rising channel in the semiconductor index won't help the bulls cause either. Expectations will now be for a test of 2,219 in the NASDAQ and 1,628 in the NASDAQ
100 until buyers step back into the market. The Dow sliced through its 20-day MA to set fib retracements and the lower BB band (10,621 - 10,654) as a likely area for support with 10,708 to be tomorrow's test area. Given recent declines, the Russell
2000 has held up relatively well, lingering around 688 resistance as passengers abandon ship in the other markets. If the Russell
2000 can reassert leadership, as is necessary in bull markets, it will help drive the recovery in tech. The S&P also diverged from the large cap Dow in holding near term support (1,250) and the 20-day MA. Friday may see this change (futures were up slightly as of 1:30 am ET). The picture in the tech secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] was a repeat of yesterday with small gains in the $NASI and $BPCOMPQ and declines in the $NAA50. As before there is no change in my Nov 2nd long signal as we haven't seen enough to suggest the Santa rally is over.
Target hit: SFN reached its target for a 22% gain. It featured for October 28th.
Stop hit: CLHB was a short play from November 29th which was knocked out after a large one-day gain followed news of a stock offering. The play closed for a 7% loss. PPDI was also a short feature from November 29th to hit its stop price for a 6% loss. UAPH was a gold member long play from December 2nd which hit its stop price for a 6% loss.
Dec 7th: Bearish enthusiasm was nixed into the close as bulls staged a late day rally. Volume came in lighter in all markets which failed to rank today's selling as distribution (also bullish). It didn't all go the bulls way. The NASDAQ ended the day with a confirmed MACD 'sell' signal. The Dow also clocked a 'sell' signal in on-balance-volume as the 20-day MA gave way as support. The Russell
2000 finally lost channel support - although the break could be redrawn as a positive test of support given how fine was the break. The semiconductor index closed on a bearish 'cloud cover' candlestick but remains inside its rising channel with continued strength in its technical indicators. Both $NASI and $BPCOMPQ gained on the day. The S&P confirmed yesterday's (bearish) shooting star with a close below yesterday's lows. My November 2nd long signal remains intact.
Target hit: MTN was a breakout feature for October 10th and closed for a 29% gain.
Stop hit: IAO was a penny stock from December 2nd and September 16th. The stock has struggled over the last three days eventually cutting below $0.35 support. The mixed bag play closed for a 14% gain and a 23% loss respectively.
Dec 6th: A tale of two halves; bulls took the morning action which held into lunchtime trading before bears stepped in, sending the bulls scuttling off with what profits they had. Trading in the tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] had the look of churning; heavy volume with no net gain. The MACD of each index has crossed, or is about to cross into a 'sell' signal, although slow stochastics and on-balance-remain firm. Most importantly for the bulls, the semiconductor index finished strong as lower channel support held with no weakness in its technical parameters. Secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] all gained - further confirmation of net bullish strength. Large caps fared less well. The S&P should be watched for a double top as a 'shooting star' was left behind after Tuesday's trading; a break of 1,250 on a closing basis will confirm the double top. The Dow held its previous bearish ground. Small caps [Russell
2000] spent another day below 688 resistance.
Target hit: TZIX was a gold member pick for October 18th and closed for a 30% gain.
Stop hit: ACE was a breakout feature for November 25th, and a gold member feature for October 5th. The latter play closed for a 14% gain, the free feature took a 4% loss. ESCL from December 5th failed to live up to its short billing. The stock closed for a 5% loss.
Dec 5th: The precarious breakouts in the tech [NASDAQ and NASDAQ
100] and small caps [Russell
2000] took a step backwards, potentially leaving bull traps although the days losses were not excessive to suggest their respective rallies are finished. Large caps [Dow and S&P] were little changed given their loss of support came last week. Distribution ranked in the Dow, NASDAQ
100, and S&P but in each of these markets various levels of support can be found which will provide opportunities for buyers to return. The $NASI and $BPCOMPQ advanced on continued strength in their technical indicators. The $NAA50 declined, but its technical indicators remained firm. Tomorrow is another day, but Monday's sea of red looked worse than the net damage it did to the markets.
Target hit: none
Stop hit: BKHM hit
its raised stop after some lackluster trading. Double top looks
favored unless bulls get
their act into gear. The stock featured as a Breakout for August 11th and October 3rd, and as a Gold Member pick for August 4th. The Gold member picked closed for a 28% gain, the breakout features closed for a 15% gain an a 6% loss. PYX was downgraded pre-market which knocked the stop out before the stock staged a recovery throughtout the day. The stock featured as a breakout for September 6th and closed for a 20% gain.
Dec 4th: Thursday's breakout in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 held into Friday's close, closing the week at new highs as the semiconductor index reversed off its upper channel resistance. The large caps [Dow and S&P] were less successful; both closed below recent highs with breakdowns in their most recent price channels. The Russell 2000 ended the week on a neutral note as it finished a couple of points above 688 support. Secondary indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] continued to rise although the exponential moving averages are tightening; a sign of slowing upward momentum. Short term traders in the semis should take profits. Intermediate term traders will be watching how support of the recent breakouts hold; 2,264 and 2,219 in the NASDAQ; 10,708 in the Dow; 1,628 in the NASDAQ 100; 688 in the Russell 2000; and 1,245 in the S&P.
Gold and silver prices clung to $500 and $8.50 support respectively as mining stocks continued their pullbacks; expect the underlying metals to follow the lead of the miners. Too much speculation and media coverage in the near term to suggest there is much more upside in base metal prices. Investors can continue to accumulate mining stocks. but short term traders need to wait for recent 'bull flags' in the metal stocks to break upside.
Target hits: none
Stop hits: ANST featured for October 25th and again for November 30th. The stock was stopped out on a low volume dump-and-recovery move (typically used to wipe out stops). If still holding I would use a new stop around $33.68. If looking to get back in, wait for a move to $36.02. The two features closed for a 13% gain and a 1% loss respectively.
Dec 1st :Like last Friday's Thanksgiving sales, Thursday became the day for rampant buying. The last three days failed to deliver the short sharp shock most were expecting (well, I was expecting) and as markets held their ground those on the sidelines became edgy about missing the next big move. The surge in volume combined with the days sharp gains reflected this rush through the doors, but it won't be long before everyone will be in the store and looking to get out. Those still in the parking lot may be ruing their missed chance, but a bigger sale could soon be on its way. The secondary tech indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] will top a few days in advance of the market and so far all three are moving in favor of the bulls. The $NAA50, at its current pace, will be first to reach overbought levels when it starts to test the 1,700 level (it currently sits at 1,270 and has moved up 640 points in less than 7 weeks). A bearish divergence in the MACD histogram has started to develop, but at this stage of the game its nit picking. With the $NASI and $BPCOMPQ past resistance and with room to move to the next resistance level there is unlikely to be any big changes here.
What of the markets? Leadership today came from the semiconductor index. The semis were the index which suffered least at the hands of the sellers over the last 3 days and it was the first to make a clean break of resistance. Not surprisingly, the gains were enough to close the day out with breakouts to new closing highs in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. Of similar importance was the break of 688 resistance in the Russell 2000, made all the more impressive by the failure of the large caps [Dow and S&P] to regain channel support (albeit from sharply ascending channel lines). The Russell 2000 still has work to do to challenge the gains in the tech markets, but there is a shift to the typical bull market leadership pattern of small caps and tech stocks. For my breakout picks I have focused on current plays developing secondary moves. There were over 40 stocks on my breakout scan list, but the majority featured stocks which had cleared will beyond nearest support.
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