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Dec 28th: Some of the bulls came out to play, especially in the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ, although the NASDAQ 100 remained below resistance. Volume remained light, but higher than yesterday's as consumer confidence ticked in above expectations. Yesterday's tweezer tops (bearish) remain in play for the Dow and S&P - although a higher close tomorrow should negate them. I have marked in a potential bearish wedge on the Dow which if it holds true (ie. a close below sharply rising support) could see a swift test of support of the broadening wedge. But, bulls will be pleased to see a break of bearish divergence in the MACD trigger line (I redrew resistance). The key negative for the tech indices remains the lacklustre Sox, but the drop in the ADX line below 20 signals no trend - i.e. it is neither bullish, nor bearish. Secondary indicators started to break some of the bearish divergences evident in their technicals. The CCI of the $BPCOMPQ broke resistance and re-entered overbought levels. A similar development occured in the $NAA50, but the $NASI still has some work to do if it is to do likewise.

Of the public listed stocks there is some interesting action in the precious metals. Bullish crossovers in MACD and on-balance-volume are occuring in BGO, CDE, and HL, with GSS showing new near term highs in MACD and slow stochastics. Although the core metal remains bearish in the short term with a small flag (a continuation pattern), there may be some accumulation in gold metal stocks which are trading at, or below September prices.

Pending bullish action can be found in BEAV - watch for break of $11.95. CSTR broke a 2-month triangle to the upside, watch for followthrough break of $27.50. BABY is showing some tight trading at support on low volume, note how the Bollinger bands are tightening, a sign of a big move to come. Gold member play, TOA, should be watched for a break of $26.50. Former successful play, GRA, looks to have completed a 2-month consolidation as it closed over resistance on light volume. Strong technicals remain here. MALL held a breakout of declining resistance after a successful test of support. MEDX and SIMG look to have completed short, low volume consoldiations of their own. Breakouts occurred in CLZR and CPHD - keep an eye on these over the coming days. Long term holders should start looking at ERES here - the worst looks behind it.

Breakout failures: GDTI featured on Dec 23rd failed to hold its breakout, closing for a 21% loss.

Breakout targets met: BPTR featured on Oct 11th reached its target for a 34% gain and looks well positioned for further gains.

Dec 27th: Markets remained in holiday trading mode. Today's losses were marked with low volume. The Dow and S&P ended on the day with "tweezer tops" - ie. two consecutive days of equal highs, a bearish marker. Bearish divergence in the MACD trigger line of the Dow and S&P follow similar developments in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. A large bearish divergence in the CCI index of the Russell 2000 completes the negative picture for the markets. However, the markets have not crumbled yet - bearish divergences are warning signs, not sell signals. Those looking for exit and/or stop levels should use the 20-day moving average (or the lows of the tweezer tops in the case of the Dow and S&P for short term traders). The intermediate trend remains up and this won't change until we have a new lower high, and a lower low. Trend followers should read the views of Ted Burge on his public stockchart list - an excellent source for market direction without the hoopla. A number of breakouts reached their targets for substantial gains, including a snap 66% gain from WGAT featured on Dec 21st.

Breakout failures: CTLM featured on Dec 6th hit its stop for an 8.46% loss.

Breakout targets met: CKCM featured on Nov 2nd reached its price target of $16.14 for a 132% gain, it closed the day at $17.10. ENWV featured on Aug 2nd and Aug 31st reached its target of $18.14 for a 72% and 33% gain respectively. WGAT featured as recently as Dec 21st hit is price target of $5.74 for a 66% gain.

Dec 25th: Happy holidays all. Next update on Monday 27th.

Dec 22nd: update to follow

Dec 21st: Decent up day for the market on low volume, an artifact of light trading into the holiday weekend? The Dow which suffered last week on the Pfzier sell off closed at new highs for the year. The tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] gains were reined in by the failure of the Sox to close inside its former rising channel. The big positive outside of the DOW was the breakdown in the volatility index, watch for a run to 10 here, but once this hits I suspect we will see a substantial pullback signaling a longer term reversal in the market (the end of the cyclical bull market as part of the secular bear?). The secondary indicators have not relented in marking a top - bearish divergences abound in their technicals [$NAA50, $NASI and $BPCOMPQ], most of which are getting worse, not better. If buying here you are buying for the short term moves - those who follow my breakouts will have noted few true (fundamentally) sound stocks, mostly bulletin board and under $5 plays, a reflection of the stocks which are popping up on the scans. For now, don't fight the trend - the bull is in control and will remain so in the near term - but the rising tide looks to have peaked, so only a select few stocks will continue to gain from here.

Breakout failures: none

Breakout targets met: BBV featured on 18-Oct-2004 closed for a 16% gain.

Dec 19th: With the blip that was Pfzier, markets ended the day flat, with topping candlesticks in place on the weekly charts (see S&P and NASDAQ weekly charts above). It certainly looks like a pullback to the 20-week exponential moving average is about to begin which will help relieve overbought conditions on the intermediate trend. The Sox looks the most interesting as it sits on support of its rising channel. A bounce here would send the tech indices to new highs, but I would be cautious given the overall negativity in the markets (as defined by two days of heavy selling). I have added and removed some stocks from the public list, remember to scroll down the page and vote every day you visit this portion of the site.

Breakout failures: none

Breakout targets met: none

Dec 15th: Markets held steady on increased volume. The Russell 2000 managed to make a new closing 52-week high as the other markets had done yesterday. The heavy volume trading on minor price moves is often a sign of churning, but in itself is not a reason to sell. The most telling aspect of today was the second breakout failure in a 24 hour period.

Breakout failures: Like NENG yesterday, WITS was the stock to collapse 24 hours after featuring here.

Breakout targets met: ACR featured on Sep 8th reached its target for a 53% gain and looks set to rally to its point-n-figure price target of $13.75.

Dec 14th: Today's focus was not the markets - all of which now sit at new highs, but the secondary indicators (see my breakout and gold member page) which are still below reaction highs. The $NAA50 and $NASI continue to map bearish divergences in the MACD trigger line, while the $NAA50, $NASI and $BPCOMPQ have bearish divergences in the CCI index. A top is approaching, the question is when will it hit. The S&P and Dow have projected targets of 1,257 and 11,492 respectively. The NASDAQ should reach 2,300-2,350 level before hitting resistance of the former rising channel trendline. There is still some distance to reach these targets so I would not be surprised to see the pullback suggested by the secondary indicators before then. Therefore, for confirmation of a top I would wait for a breach of the last reaction lows. For the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 this would be 2,097 and 1,577 respectively, for the S&P it will be a close below 1,175, and for the Dow it will be 10,416.

Breakout failures: NENG never made it out of the gates - early strength turned into an afternoon sell off.

Breakout targets met: none

Dec 13th: Markets made a decent fist of some bullish action. The Oracle-Peoplesoft deal made it back into the headlines and this, in conjunction with some improved consumer retail sales, was considered the cue for some buying action. The Dow and S&P were the real winners, closing at new highs on increased volume. The tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] still have some work to do, but the higher volume was welcome. We are not out of the woods yet, Dow Theory calls for confirmation - when all indices are at new highs we can call the consolidation complete.

Breakout failures: CYD featured on Nov 9th and Dec 3rd. Friday's GLOW reversed to hit its stop today.

Breakout targets met: none

Dec 12th: Markets have struggled since Tuesday's sell off. The tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] in particular haven't looked impressive with three days of low volume action, although both have maintained reasonable technical strength - the bearish divergence in NASDAQ the MACD trigger line perhaps the most ominous signal to emerge here. Small caps have treaded water in much a similiar fashion to the tech indices, but the overall position of the Russell 2000 is stronger than these indices. The Dow ended Friday on a bearish harami cross - harami crosses tend to be strong reversal signals, but wait for the confirmation before jumping ship (a confirmation would be a close below Friday's lows). The S&P also marked Friday with indecision as it ended the day on a bearish harami cross of its own. Next week as options expiration week will likely see some volatile action.

Although markets lulled with indecision not all stocks lay in slumber. COO broke resistance on light volume, but technials are nicely positioned for further gains. ENWV has narrowed towards the apex of a bullish ascending triangle. This will break very soon. HURC ended Friday on a doji, bulls and bears are still fighting this one out but the narrow range suggests one will win out big - prior volume favors the bulls. Roller coaster of the week was my AAC. Upgrade Wednesday, profit taking Thursday, and increased guidance Friday. Real supply lurks between $1.05-$1.15 - if it breaks that it will be off to the races. Slow burner of the week/(next year??) could be ERES. The correction looks to have stabilized and the capitulation is now water under the bridge. Long term hold - check out net revenue, it has practically doubled each year since 2002 after a return to profitablility while the stock price has halved - go figure. Point-n-figure charts project a target of $25.

Longs will be feeling edgy in SBAC. The bearish divergence in the MACD trigger line is one warning sign. The break down from Friday's narrow trading range is another. Finally, slow stochastics are about to make a new near term low. Time to step aside? SIRI looks an excellent short set up here. Notice how the big red candlestick dominates the two days of week bullish action (on weak volume). Friday's doji also marks a bearish shooting star.

Breakout failures: none

Breakout targets met: COO featured on Sep 2nd reached (and exceeded) its target for a 16% gain. EELN featured on Nov 17th for a 46% gain

Dec 9th: With the exception of the NASDAQ, but interestingly not the NASDAQ 100, markets had a good day. The Dow added to yesterday's gains with a higher volume accumulation day, as did the S&P. Wednesday's sell off still remains in control, but bears and shorts will be feeling a little skittish after today. The Russell 2000 ended the day on a bullish harami cross. Comforting the bears was a gap down in the Sox - although it ended the day on a doji at support of the rising channel line. The areas to watch over the coming weeks are the secondary indicators. The $NAA50 is shaping a bearish divergence in the MACD trigger line, while the $NASI has bearish divergences in the MACD trigger line and CCI. Silver had another ugly day, although some of the gold issues like HL and CDE look well positioned for a bounce.

Breakout failures: OPSW featured on Nov 22nd closed for a 7% loss.

Breakout targets met: none

Dec 8th: Markets attempted to regain some of yesterday's losses. Some markets (Dow and S&P) did better than others (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100). The tech indices gains were overshadowed by further losses in the Sox. But the real losers were gold and silver on strength in the dollar, although mining issues had broken well before metal prices did. The capitulation in metal prices actually helped these stocks as big gap downs were bought into all day (sell the rumor, buy the news), GTC orders at some of today's lows are worth a shot in some of the metal issues. Note the new breakout failures, continuing the trend of selling into recent strength (this is not a factor of "chasing" breakouts as August/September breaks had greater success in reaching targets, ie 16 wins:24 failures:10 stocks in play, compared to November/December stats of 2 wins:18 failures:54 stocks in play). Don't get caught chasing stocks. One case in point, my "beloved" AAC leapt 53% on this.

Breakout failures: CPHD featured on Dec 3rd hit its stop for a 7% loss. IDSY featured on 26 Nov closed for a 11% loss. HDTV also featured on 26 Nov closed for a 13% loss.

Breakout targets met: none

Dec 7th: Markets fell over the cliff in afternoon trading and few stocks escaped the fall. What will be important is the quality of the decline. The tech indices, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, suffered most with respect to volume, closing below January highs. If this is the extent of the election rally I hope you all enjoyed it! Although January high support was lost we still have support levels at the last reaction high and the declining channel line (not illustrated on my daily chart, but is evident by joining the reaction highs on a weekly chart). I suspect we will see a test of the 40-week and/or 200-day moving average (currently 1,955 in the NASDAQ, 1,445 in the NASDAQ 100). The Dow escaped relatively midly, losing over 100 points, but volume was relatively mild - although technically counting as distribution (=institutional selling). The S&P couldn't hold its break of 1,185, but big support should be found at 1,146 (the 40-week average sits at 1,123). The biggest damage was done to the small cap stocks, the Russell 2000 shedding over 2%. For this index, look to fib retracements for support. Given bearish crossovers in the secondary indicators this correction should last a few weeks. A return to the bear market won't occur until we see a sequence of lower highs and lower lows in these indicators. Another topping marker was the three more breakout failures for stocks featured in November - even though I feature daily breakouts it might be better to step aside and wait for the pullback to run its course before looking for fresh candidates to buy.

Breakout failures: LENSE featured on Nov 30th closed for a 18% loss. CXW featured on Nov-24th closed for a 3% loss. MRY featured on Nov 18th closed for a 13% loss.

Breakout targets met: none

Dec 6th: Another mixed day for the markets. Only the volatility index gave a hint of what might be to come, likely into options expiration. Short sharp shock?

Breakout failures: SNG featured on Sep 29th for a 11% loss.

Breakout targets met: none

Dec 5th: Markets still remain in a rut, there has been little enthusiasm to build on Wednesday's big gains. Disappointing jobs data was not the inspiration the markets had looked for, even as oil prices declined ending the week at the 200-day moving average. Given oil is at a major support level, I would look for a bounce next week which will likely trigger the start of the next pullback in the markets. The series of dojis (Dow and S&P) and inverse hammers (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) on high volume imply churning which is bearish. Even the Russell 2000 managed to follow a bearish harami with a second doji. Looks like profit taking all round. The tech controlling Sox ended Friday with a second (bearish) gravestone doji.

Where might value lie? From a short term prespective (2-5 days), the mining sector stocks are well placed for a bounce. BGO looks best positioned as it sits on long term support. Support was also evident in GSS and SSRI, while KGC ended Friday on a bullish piercing pattern. Steel also had a good Friday, IIIN successfully followed through on it's test of support, closing Friday on a bullish engulfing pattern, as did OS, SBAC continued its break of prior resistance, closing well above $10 psychological resistance. Former breakout gainer, GRA, sits at support of the rising channel line and is well positioned to move upside. Similarly, ELGX now lies at its support line after a lengthy correction. OPSW completed a low volume, 8-day consolidation, moving higher on heavier volume. For the penny players, ALMI is on the verge of its next breakout.

Breakout failures: none

Breakout targets met: MTH featured on Oct 27th closed for a 19% gain. PARL featured on Sep 28th closed for a 59% gain.

Dec 2nd: Yesterday's boom was today's malaise. Markets made little attempt to follow through, instead they churned on heavy volume. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 ended the day on small inverse hammers. The Sox revival barely lasted a day as the November bull trap was the focus of supply. The Dow could muster nothing more than a (neutral) doji, but remained confined to the bearish broadening wedge. The strongest index, the Russell 2000, completed a two-day (bearish) harami cross, while the S&P ended the day too on a bearish harami cross. Jobs data looms tomorrow.

There was a range of action in stocks featured on my stockchart public list. The mining sector was the day's big loser, as stocks like CDE, KGC, HL, BGO, DROOY, GSS, VGZ, PAAS, SIL, and SSRI all took beatings. Oil services and oil related stocks were also hard hit, especially GLNG, and SWN. Other casualties on the day were; USU reversed an earlier consolidation breakout, this looks a good short candidate as downside volume increased. SIRI's gain was weakened by its (bearish) inverse hammer, this also looks to be good shorting material. However, there were some positives. CSTR rallied on above average volume to close an earlier breakdown gap, it sits less than 50 cents from new highs. HURC added to yesterday's gains on higher volume, confirming its breakout. IBAS broke from a 3-week consolidation, clearing resistance on below average volume. IIIN successfully tested support on lighter volume following its breakout earlier this week (although OS was less fortunate). JSDA continued its move from $3.15 lows, regaining most of its earnings losses. BABY followed its flag breakout with a fresh breakout to new near term highs. The last three days have seen some reasonable volume following some very light base trading. FIX has enjoyed some steady gains of late, closing above a $7.20 stumbling block. Large cap, NT, continued to enjoy an unseasonably long rally, moving above near term resistance. LEXR has gone some way to regain much of an earlier sharp rally, can this remain sustainable? ONEI reversed yesterday's sharp correction, ending the day on a bullish piercing pattern on higher volume. PETC attempted a breakout of a bullish flag, but the (neutral) spinning top on modest volume is a weak buy signal. CLZR had greater success, reversing a bear trap breakdown from a pennant. Today's higher volume negates earlier supply created by disappointing earnings and is a "buy". OVTI has been a trooper, but will this become a "sell-on-the-news" play following yesterday's earnings? Sits above resitance, but watch for a close of the breakaway gap from $17.50. The best performers have come from the penny stocks, most notably TKER (featured as a gold member play on Sep 30th), CNR and WLSF.

Breakout failures: HDVY featured on Nov 29th for a 35% loss, the largest loss of any featured breakout. VGZ featured on Nov 22nd closed for a 7% loss.

Breakout targets met: none

Dec 1st: An excellent day for the market bulls as oil prices crashed 7% on news of higher reserves. Oil is in a confirmed downtrend, but the warning came yesterday when price failed the 50-day moving average test. Next on the list will be the dollar, lots of naysayers - nobody with anything good to say - "Caution - Long Rally Ahead". This will impact on gold and silver prices. Mining sector stocks have started to feel the squeeze, one should be offloading such stocks in preperation for the dollar rally. Today's solid accumulation, combined with an upswing in Bollinger band width ie. price volatility (see chart 3 of Peter Robinson's stocklist), should be good for a rally into February/March, but take nothing for granted. For a straight-eye view of the market I always do a daily check on Ted Burge's stockchart list, where today he reports a positive spin on the bullish percent indices. So what of the markets? The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 cleared their 2-week consolidation on huge volume; strong on-balance-volume and a MACD which will likely spend a brief time on a "sell" signal. The lingering doubt of the Sox was no more as it reversed prior losses, although Sox technicals are still indicating weakness. The Dow had a solid day, but the broadening wedge is still in play and is generally considered a bearish pattern. However, like the tech indices, the S&P is no longer confined by its prior consolidation and once again resumes its uptrend. The final cautionary note are today's and yesterday's breakout failures - all of which came from November stocks. False breakouts are common during the end-phase of rallies, this warning sign should be not be ignored - do not assume all breakouts will succeed, even if the uptrend looks well defined. The best breakouts are those which emerge during market bottoms, not market tops.

Breakout failures: BIVN featured on Nov 26th for a 10% loss.

Breakout targets met: DSGX featured on Nov 3rd for a 37% gain.

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