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User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 30th: As to add a little flavor to the week the indices gave back some of Thursday's gains (and more for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100), but volume was variable. The tech averages (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) suffered the biggest point losses and the NASDAQ 100 offered a confirmed distribution day. Large caps (Dow and S&P) lost less and the selling came on lighter volume.The semiconductor index was hardest hit. Least affected were small caps (Russell 2000) which is good news for the long term health of the July rally.

Technically, the NASDAQ is stuck between a no-mans land of the 50-day and 200-day MAs. Friday's losses did little to make things worse than they were before. The Dow found enough to stay above its 50-day MA and there were no technical reversals with all supporting indicators remaining in the green. The NASDAQ 100 gave up its Thursday breakout - leaving behind a bull trap in the process. The higher volume distribution was not enough to break the 50-day MA so bulls are not without some support. What hope of the mini-double bottom in the S&P hit a snag as the breakout fell back into the clutches of the double bottom range; it's going to take a little more to get this index going again. At least there was no key moving average break. The Russell 2000 gives the best hope for bulls as the 20-day MA held as the index works on developing a handle to the 3-montnh cup-and-handle pattern.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] stayed on the bullish side of the fence despite Friday's sell off. The bullish percents ($BPCOMPQ) reversed the bear signal from 3-days ago, although supporting technicals held to a strong 'sell signal'. The Summation Index ($NASI) is very close to a MACD trigger 'sell' but it hasn't done so yet. For the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll 30-day S&P outlook I have gone for a bullish call based on the relative position of breadth indicators, although a hurricane influenced market could see me been horribly wrong here.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 28th: By Thursday's close Monday's losses were consigned to history, but the week looks like it will close honors even into the long weekend. The NASDAQ closed just shy of its 200-day MA, so don't be surprised if Friday sees little change either way. The Dow got a modest uptick in volume to register an accumulation day. It also reversed the MACD trigger 'sell' into a 'buy' and pulled away from its 50-day MA. On the more bearish side there was a relative out performance of the Dow over the NASDAQ 100. Not to mention it closed bang on former support (now resistance) of the former rising wedge. The NASDAQ 100 posted a more respectable accumulation day as it made a fresh break of the 200-day MA. The gains may be enough to clear a 2-week bull flag. The best move of the day came from the Russell 2000 as it added 2%. But it will soon encounter converged resistance of May highs and the sharply advancing former support line from January lows - a significant test. Watch for an upcoming MACD trigger 'buy' above the bullish zero line. The S&P confirmed a mini-double bottom as on-balance-volume made a new high, the MACD triggered a 'buy' and volume registered an accumulation day (another notch in the bull column).

Overall relative strength turned more bullish with small caps jumping large caps {Small caps > Large caps > Tech}. On the Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] front there was a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA by the 3-day EMA of the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) and Summation Index ($NASI).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: CELG drifted into its most recent stop. The July 1st play closed at breakeven, the latter July 25th play closed for a 5% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 27th: No surprise to see indices push higher on light volume. The NASDAQ did register an accumulation day, but it wasn't enough to negate the break of support for on-balance-volume. The NASDAQ 100 was a strong performing index but it struggled to hold a break of its 200-day MA as the 50-day MA lurks nearby to provide upward pressure. The small gains in the Dow and S&P were enough to take the indices above their 50-day MAs, but volume was disappointing. The Russell 2000 had the best day as it muscled off its 200-day MA; action in this index is critical for the success of any bull market as speculative small caps are traditional bull leaders. So far this index has acted like a leader. The concern is if the index breaks through key moving averages and gives up July reaction lows as it will leave it at risk of a double top (confirmation would require a drop below 647 which is someway off).

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] were interesting as all three indicators finished bearish. There was a bearish cross of the 5-day MA by the 3-day MA from the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) and Summation index ($NASI). The bearish turn was enough to reduce the suggested equity exposure until bullish conditions return.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 26th: A day of balance with neither bulls nor bears taking control. There was a shift in favour of large caps {Large caps > Small caps > Tech} leaving a more bearish alignment for relative strength between markets. The NASDAQ closed with a doji as on-balance-volume broke down from its 3-week consolidation. The NASDAQ 100 closed with a similar doji but ended on 50-day MA support. The semiconductor index drifted below its 50-day and 20-day MA as the MACD trigger switches to a 'sell'. Large caps [Dow and S&P] were little changed on the day. The Russell 2000 remained at its 200-day MA.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] saw a bearish cross of the 5-day EMA by the 3-day EMA for the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) with the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) under pressure to do likewise.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 25th: Just as Friday's gains lacked the punch of volume, so did Monday's losses. There was some potential long lasting technical changes, notably MACD trigger 'sells' for the NASDAQ, Dow (reversing Friday's MACD trigger 'buy'), S&P and NASDAQ 100. This confluence of 'sell' triggers might spell trouble down the road. Bulls have the week to sort it out but can they? The NASDAQ broke through rising support from July lows, removing what had been considered a bear trap last week. The Dow fell below its 50-day MA after cracking through on Friday. The index confirmed last week's break of the rising wedge and is on course to retest July lows. The NASDAQ 100 fell through its 20-day and 200-day MAs, but has the 50-day MA to look too for support. The Russell 2000 drifted back to its 200-day MA but is well positioned to create a handle to an 11-week base. The semiconductor index only has the 20-day MA to lean as support with little else to prevent a fall down to 325.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] were dominated by the 'sell' trigger in the Summation Index ($NASI). This worrying reversal came at the area of the last top in May.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: Baxter (BAX) dropped to its stop price to exit the August 6th free pick for a 3% loss. The earlier April 1st Subscriber pick closed for an 18% gain, the June 16th play close for a 10% gain. MITI was listed as a short play for today; although closing with a bearish engulfing pattern it did touch off its stop price for a 7% loss. WERN gapped into its raised stop to close the July 23rd Subscriber pick for a 5% loss. The earlier April 21st play closed for a 21% gain.

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 23rd: Solid points gains for the indices, but no volume to back them up. The NASDAQ perhaps created a bear trap following the return above support of the July-August support line (Thursday's trendline break marking the trap), although more logical would be to redraw July-August support. The Dow ran back to former support now resistance (with resistance holding), helped by a fresh - if somewhat premature - MACD trigger 'buy'. During the Dow resistance test it was able to close above its 50-day MA; a positive. The NASDAQ 100 was able to regain its 200-day MA and is one of the most bullish of the indices. However, the ever declining volume for the advance (and in the advances of the other indices) is a concern for bulls. The Russell 2000 continued to drift off its former leadership position. The index failed to retest July-August former support turned resistance. The semiconductor index also gained traction as it built off Thursday's doji at the 50-day MA. Finally, the S&P edged once more above its 50-day MA on very light volume. Technicals all held in the green.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] were interesting in the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) and Percentage of Stocks above 50-day MA ($NAA50R) both regained their 5-day EMAs. But there were technical 'sell' triggers for the MACD of the $NAA50R and CCI of $BPCOMPQ. Neither have reached overbought levels associated with bear or bull markets so the benefit of the doubt should be given to bulls. The bullish return for the breadth indicators meant I have stuck with a bullish call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll 30-day S&P outlook.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 21st: Modest losses on light volume saw some additional technical weakness. The NASDAQ 100 closed below the 200-day MA, but not by much. It will also benefit from the holding of the 50-day MA by the semiconductor index. On-balance-volume dipped below its trigger line, but the net trend shows accumulation. The Russell 2000 took a step closer to its 200-day MA, but there was no break of the average. However, there was a MACD trigger 'sell' in addition to a drop in relative strength to the NASDAQ. Other indices finished unchanged.

There was also no significant change in the Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ]. Bears hold the short term advantage.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 20th: Neutral finish to the day with slightly higher volume. The NASDAQ stopped at rising support from July lows while the NASDAQ 100 clung on to its 200-day MA. The semiconductor index held on to the 50-day MA but it remained contained by the neckline of the double bottom. The Dow saw modest gains, but not enough to regain the 50-day MA or prevent the MACD trigger 'sell'. The S&P also managed modest gains but without the 'sell' trigger in the MACD which affected the Dow. The Russell 2000 was less fortunate as its upside move touched on but did not break former July trendline support. This is current resistance. A MACD trigger 'sell' will likely hit this index tomorrow.

As outlined in my blog post, Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are up against May 2008 highs and therefore resistance. The breadth indicators have not approached bear market top levels, so breadth indicators could easily bust past May highs. However, the NASDAQ has not made it close to May highs. It remains unclear how this negative divergence will play out, but on first view it is not positive for the NASDAQ.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 19th: The added downside was no surprise, neither was the higher volume as those traders still around realized they were on the wrong side of the trade. The retest of July lows is well underway for the Dow and S&P, although support remains for the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000. The NASDAQ is in the dead zone between the 50-day and 200-day MAs; watch for non-committal sideways action as participants wait for break of one or other moving average. The NASDAQ 100 was able to hold 200-day MA support and remains the strongest of the tech averages, but it's debatable if it can hold current levels. The semiconductor index failed to break through the 200-day MA and looks to be struggling at its 50-day MA. Its double bottom neckline support failed, leaving a bull trap in its place; bull and bear traps frequently result in moves to the opposite side of the pattern - in this case July lows. The Dow and S&P more or less look on course to go all the way back to July lows; moving averages are bearish and there is little support between here and there for them to lean on (other than minor reaction lows in late July). The Russell 2000 gave up sharply angled support from July lows (no real surprise here) and is fast approaching its 200-day MA.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] slowed their advances, but no bearish crosses of 5-day EMAs (although the indicators had not updated at time of writing; the percentage of stocks above the 50-day MA likely crossed below its 5-day EMA Tuesday).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 18th: Really light volume made today another non-event. There were technical moves, but without the volume it is hard to say how important they are. Both the Dow and S&P broke down through their rising bearish wedges, each dropped below their 50-day MAs in the process. The NASDAQ eased below its 200-day MA but the NASDAQ 100 did enough to hold above its 200-day MA. The semiconductor index held on to its double bottom confirmation breakout in addition to its 50-day MA, but it has yet to mount a serious challenge on its 200-day MA. The Russell 2000 dropped off resistance for a second down day in a row; look for a test of rising support and/or 20-day MA. Although the Russell 2000 is in retreat its MACD is in breakout move - an important leading behaviour which the index can follow.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] continued their advance on their way to overbought levels. Not there yet but for these the trading volume doesn't matter.

Don't be surprised if Tuesday produces another low volume down day.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 16th: More dull action as light volume removes much of the significance of Friday's action. The down days were modest for tech (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) and the same for the up days in large caps (Dow and S&P). No major moving averages were breached or lost. One point of concern is the lack of confirmation from on-balance-volume for the rally in the NASDAQ, although other indices show stronger accumulation trends from on-balance-volume. Tight trading in the semiconductor index reflects the approach of 200-day MA resistance; however, supporting technicals remain strong. The Dow and S&P closed the week contained by their bearish wedges. The longer they run the greater the chance of failure as prices approach the apices of this pattern. The Russell 2000 touched off 763 resistance and this index is close to make or break (which will have a significant impact on the rest of the indices).

No surprise to see Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] rise once more. The Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) have exceeded May highs, suggesting there is greater strength in the market than was the case earlier in the year. The Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) did not make it past May highs but lies on 3 points away from a bear market top (and some 13 away from a bull market top). The Summation Index ($NASI) also fell shy of May highs, but its advance has more or less been straight up since the July bottom; it's not overbought yet but it's getting there.

Given the lack of action I have stuck with a bullish call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll 30-day S&P outlook.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 14th: Other than the lacking volume it wasn't a bad day for bulls. The NASDAQ enjoyed a bullish engulfing pattern to push a close above its 200-day MA. May highs beckon. Working in the NASDAQ's favor was the NASDAQ 100 push from its 200-day MA. The day finished with a leading breakout for on-balance-volume, a good sign for a price test and break of May highs. Boosting the stance of the tech averages is the double bottom in the semiconductor index, it has so far played the backtest of new support (the neckline) to form and is positioned to move higher. The Dow had a roller coaster day; it ended on a neutral spinning top within its rising bearish wedge - lots of movement for little change. The S&P fared little better. The good news for bulls is there is no dependency on large cap indices to lead a rally. This responsibility falls on small caps. The Russell 2000 made a further approach on 763 resistance and is very close to new highs for 2008. This would be a major boost for bulls. Working in its favor is the leading breakout in the MACD trigger line. Small caps look to be on course to make this new high and lead the other indices higher.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] added value and maintains support for the rally. No major worries on overbought levels for these market breadth indicators.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 13th: Further boring action from the markets as indices held last Friday's and this Monday's gains. The Dow is back testing rising support from July lows in what I have redrawn as a bearish rising wedge - look for a rally tomorrow if this proves to be the case. The same is true for the S&P. The earlier breakouts marked Friday are no more. The NASDAQ 100 fared slightly better as it held on to its 200-day MA. The semiconductor index back tested newly created support following the double bottom confirmation. The Russell 2000 finished with a small hammer, although given the position of stochastics this is not a traditional bullish signal.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] slowed their advance with the exception of the Summation Index ($NASI). None have reached bear market overbought levels yet.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 12th: Markets eased up on light volume but there was no great damage done to the indices or supporting technicals. Scrambling bears might point to bearish harami crosses in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 and Joe Soap bearish harami in the Russell 2000. There was also an inverse hammer posted in the Dow yesterday with confirmation today. Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] continued their rise towards overbought levels. Nothing confirmed there yet.

In summary, tame action.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: EZPW hit its stop after a second day of selling, negating early promise. The July 9th play closed for an 8% loss. RNOW had endured a huge intraday swing to exit the position for a 7% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 11th: Strong gains into mid-afternoon fell back sharply before recovering some lost ground. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day and there was continued technical improvement with technicals of the Russell 2000 all in the green. There was an additional technical shift with the Russell 2000 leading the NASDAQ 100. The Russell 2000 had a very strong day and is very close to breaking May highs; an important leading signal for a bull market. The semiconductor index also contributed with a confirmed double bottom (and break of 50-day MA). The strength in the two latter indices will help the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Dow and S&P push higher.

The only real problem for today stood with the stall out at the 200-day MA for the NASDAQ, countered somewhat by the break of the 200-day MA by the NASDAQ 100. Large caps (Dow and S&P) are lingering on the plus side of their 50-day MAs, consolidating last week's breakouts. Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ continued their march to overbought levels, but haven't reached these levels yet. The Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) looks likely to top out first.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 9th: Bulls turned up the heat with another solid performance even if the volume was lacking. Bulls will be happy to see the solid break of the 200-day MA by the Russell 2000 - only a turn as happened in May could derail the leadership momentum here. Tech averages (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) followed with a close on the 200-day MA by the NASDAQ 100 and a decent break of the 50-day MA by the NASDAQ. Large caps (Dow and S&P) broke through their respective 50-day MAs as supporting technicals all turned green. Although large caps (Dow and S&P) have been leading the market down, they are recovering their bullish footing.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are interesting as they fast approach bear market top territory. They are not there yet - but are inching ever closer. All have worked from deeply oversold levels - which may or may not prove to be a boon depending on where they reverse. The Summation index ($NASI) provided the cleanest bottom signal in July so how clear will it be in a top? It has some 500 points to go before getting to a bear market top, or 330 to the May top.

Following last week’s neutral call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll I have upgraded to a bullish call.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 7th: A large cap meltdown didn't spread to tech indices, but did register distributions days at 50-day MAs (not good for large cap buyers). On the plus side, there was no major break of support, although this week's breakouts for these indices are no more. In contrast, the NASDAQ 100 saw a net positive turn for supporting technicals; all aligned in favour of bulls. The Russell 2000 suffered a similar fate to that of large caps as it found resistance at its 200-day MA. The only index to come out with some respect was the semiconductor index as it worked its way towards its 50-day MA.

The net result of Thursday's action was to push large and small caps back inside their prior consolidations. What happens here will be important; further declines will support bull traps from the earlier breakouts - forcing further liquidation and more rapid declines. Any upside will catch early shorts with their pants down and should take indices from their 50-day MAs to their 200-day MAs.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 6th: Another respectable day from the bulls. The lighter volume is perhaps better than it looks given the time of year. More importantly, there were bullish crosses of the 50-day MA for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 - although the latter index just squeaked over the line. The same could be said for the Russell 2000 which finished on its 200-day MA. There was a net technical improvement for the NASDAQ as all supporting technicals turned bullish. There was not the same response from the NASDAQ 100 given its long term stochastic [39,1] lingers below the bull/bear mid-line (i.e. 50 value) but technicals are moving in the correct direction. The semiconductor index took a step forward towards confirming yesterday's resistance breakout and is moving very nicely. The S&P was able to nudge a little higher - but not enough to mount any serious challenge on its 50-day MA.

If there is a concern its the relative shift in performance from small caps to tech {Tech > Small caps > Large caps}; small caps should be leading the rally out and this turn of weakness could spell trouble - even as the Russell 2000 toys with its 200-day MA. Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are also pushing deeper into neutral towards overbought levels; none are too toasty yet, but it's no longer the bargain basement conditions of early July.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 5th: After an attempted break of support for the various consolidations it was back to the bulls to push the markets off support. The NASDAQ closed just shy of its 50-day MA as technicals see-saw between bullish and bearish conditions. Volume soared in line with an accumulation day. A bear trap in the NASDAQ 100 was created following the nearly 4% gain in the index. Again, the 50-day MA lurks nearby to provide resistance, but undoing Monday's breakdown was important for this index. The semiconductor index broke declining resistance and its 20-day MA. Unlike the main tech indices it has room to run to its 50-day MA. There is also a mild bullish divergence developing in the MACD trigger line. This stretch room should help the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 work past their 50-day MAs. The Dow got past its pennant with an upside break on a solid accumulation day. The S&P had a mild accumulation day and finished on resistance but has the most leg room to get to its 50-day MA (which would mean a consolidation breakout).

The only real disappointment was the Russell 2000 as it stopped right on resistance, wedged between its 50-day and 200-day MAs. Small caps lead bull markets, large caps lead bear markets. Small caps have done some serious leg work since the July bottom in leading the markets, but their leadership is really needed now to push other markets higher. Somehow, good as today's action was I can see these consolidations broaden into the latter part of August.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] saw some see-saw action. The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) is dallying around its 5-day EMA, holding in neutral mid-ground territory. The Summation Index ($NASI) enjoyed steady gains while the Bullish Percents made a weak attempt at a bearish turn ($BPCOMPQ).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldAugust 2nd: Given the weak jobs data and GM results it was a respectable showing from the markets; respectable in that recent support from July lows held as part of their developing consolidations. The support levels created from July lows are an important benchmark for the development of the retest. When the various indices break from these consolidations (downside breaks are favored) then we will have the retest necessary to firm the bottom and drive the next rally. As things stand it still has the look of a short covering rally which will keep some buyers out of the market.

For the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 their declining 50-day MA's are quickly approaching rising prices; this would be a logical point to turn prices lower. The semiconductor index is playing around with what looks to be a bear trap. It is looking most vulnerable to a rapid decline given the sharply angled lines of its 20-, 50-, and 200-day MAs, the nearby overhead presence of the 20-day MA and the shaky support of 335 (closed only 3 points above on Friday). The semiconductor index is the index to watch for next week. The Russell 2000 does not have this concern with it trading above 20-day and 50-day MAs, although the 200-day MA is only some 15 points above. A Russell 2000 break of its 200-day MA sets up a different scenario with room to maneuver to 736 resistance and an opportunity to lead a new bull rally out. Large caps (Dow and S&P) fall in between tech and small caps with prices trading inside pennants.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are working off oversold conditions, leaving them vulnerable to correction on another swoop down in the parent index. Should the NASDAQ break through support I suspect we would see bullish divergences develop in the breadth indicators; another reason to suggest a significant bottom is in the making.

For the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll I am going to make an unusual call for a flat return over the next 30-days (i.e. "neutral").

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

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