Note: Not all stock links will work as some of the aforementioned stocks have been removed from my public list.

Aug 31st: Some nice volume on a series of bullish candlesticks in each of the markets. Whether the volume was short covering following the morning sell off, or fresh buying remains to be seen. If it was true buying we should see a decent rally tomorrow, any weakness would suggest todays rally was driven by shorts who will start to re-establish positions. Overall, the markets held up well to negative consumer data. The question is now, can it build on it?

Aug 30th: Brief update, gold patrons should have received their stockpicks for tomorrow. Markets started their pullbacks today, which will likely to run into Friday and the jobs report. We should see a return of the volume and the end of vacation trading at this time. The Republican party convention will keep traders off the floor so don't expect too much excitement this week. The disconnection between oil prices and stock prices was evident by the failure of the markets to rally following today's drop in oil prices by $1. Watch the US dollar index, should this break 90 it will be bad news for precious metals and precious metal stocks.

Aug 27th: The week ended higher on some very light trading. Today's limp GDP figure was not enough to inspire (or kill) the market, so look to next week's job report as the potential catalyst for a volume reaction. I would still like to see a retest of August lows - there isn't the buying volume to suggest a 'V' like bottom. This test should be short and sharp, perhaps lasting only 2-3 days, I would be more wary of a slow decline at this point. Friday could be the day we see a washout. The NASDAQ ended the week below key resistance, although technicals continued to rise. The NASDAQ 100 inched a new weekly high, but couldn't maintain the high at the close. The Dow closed above resistance of the close of the last reaction high (but not the last intraday reaction high). The S&P finished slightly better, closing above the intraday reaction high of early August. The Russell 2000 also had a positive day, but the Philly Sox continues to lack confidence and this weakness will eventually come back to haunt the tech indices. The volatility index actually looks set to gap down on Monday (bullish for the markets) - but the concern for this is a likely bounce off support that should coincide with a market correction. Longs need to remain wary.

Precious metals finished down, marking resistance points in precious metal related stocks. Traders should sell gold and silver stocks close to, or at, resistance (eg HL and PAAS), and look to buy these stocks back on the next test of support. Given the light trading there was little action from individual stocks featured on my list. Penny stock, GZFX, traded some heavy volume on plans for a new advertising campaign. OMNI ended on a bullish engulfing pattern following NASDAQ compliance. OPSW continued its advance on the back of strong earnings. Penny stock, GTEL, bounced off support on heavy volume following a company AGM

Breakout failures: JUPM featured on Aug 20th and Aug 26th.

Breakout targets met: none

Aug 26th: Light trading ahead of the GOP convention will lkely make for erratic, sideways trading as market makers remain on the sidelines, while retail and value buyers duke it out with the shorts. The NASDAQ continues to struggle below major resistance of the triple bottom at 1,865. The bearish harami cross (today's similar open and close lie inside the range of yesterday's open/close) is weakened by the lower volume (a bullish parameter on a lower close). Slightly better is the NASDAQ 100 which is trading above the May lows, but finished today on a bearish harami cross. The Philly Sox remains the weak link in the chain, trading at support, but as yet to make a run to upper resistance - no tech rally can last without this index in motion. This is contrast to the Dow and S&P which are working towards their June highs having breached two-month resistance yesterday. and showing all three technicals in the green today. The volatility index looks to have reached a short term bottom after 8 days of downside. At best, the market will move sideways here, but an increase in fear could see a short, sharp, shock over the next 2-3 days that will shake the last few of the weak hands out, and trap new short sellers, thus confirming the bottom. This will be the time to buy.

Puiblic list stocks making moves included OMNI, hit hard on an earnings loss. ZEUS look to be completing a double top, selling off on heavier volume today. While ELGX started a fresh breakout on heavier volume. OPSW ended on a bullish hammer as it continues to trade on high volume between $4.80 and $6.20. PSYS benefitted from an analyst upgrade, but this was not enough to stem the flow of sellers, closing slightly up for the day after a strong gap open. TASR's leap of faith following a new $1 million order was not enough to keep it from finishing near the day lows.

Breakout failures: none

Breakout targets met: none

Aug 25th: Mixed bag of ecomomic data; a rise in durable good orders, but a drop in home sales. But to what degree is the latter affected by a squeeze on the availability of materials - is there more demand than the figures suggest? We are starting to see some degree of divergence in the markets. The Dow, Russell 2000 and S&P are leading the current rally, albeit on light volume. The tech indices, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are being dragged along for the ride, but are kept back by a weak Philly Sox which has done little over thle last couple of weeks to suggest demand for tech related issues. The lack of overall volume may be less of a concern given August is traditionally a month of light volume trading, but there needs to be more meat in the pie to sustain this rally into new 52-week highs. A more positive aspect to today's trading were the upside breaks of intermediate consolidation wedges in all markets. Traditionally, such moves retrace the entire wedge - which would bring markets back to levels last seen in ealy July. Technical strength is improving, with market technicals moving to new near term highs in the MACD tirgger line and slow stochastics. The bias is definitely bullish, but it is not the time to 'jump in with two feet' - dip the toes and test the water, but be ready for the tidal change..

Breakout failures: RVTIF featured on July 23rd.

Breakout targets met: TZOO featured on Aug 17th and Aug 20th.

Aug 24th: No update today due to time constraints. Gold patrons will have received their stock picks for tomorrow

Aug 23rd: Markets consolidated last weeks' gains, althoujgh late afternoon selling favors further retracement tomorrow. The markets opened on weak Wal-Mart news, a lack of consumer spending will further pressure this nascent rally. Certainly short term traders would have taken profits from the lack lustre trading. The NASDAQ finished on a bearish black candlestick (higher open, lower close, but close higher than prior day's close), and the NASDAQ 100 closed on a doji (similar open and close). The Dow and S&P remained caught at wedge resistance with bearish cloud cover (higher open, lower close, but today's close above Friday's open). Volume in all markets was lighter than Friday's - a bullish sign, and the Philly Sox did close higher - returning above support of the downward channel.

Gold stocks weakened as profit taking swooped in on recent bullish action. Gold prices ended on a bearish harami cross - a strong reversal signal at overbought levels. There were few volume movers today. QCOM added another 2% on average trading, but overall volume for Friday's breakout remains light. DHB gapped up on average volume, but has only scratched the surface of the post-earnings sell off, still plenty of work to do here. ZEUS finished on a bearish inverse hammer on low volume, but closed above its breakdown gap - net neutral. OMNI break of resistance on Friday ended today on a bearish engulfing pattern on slightly heavier volume. OVTI completed a bearish shooting star on heavy volume, look for a retracement of its recent bull run.

Aug 20th: The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 closed above resistance of broadening wedges on light volume. A sharp intraday reversal in oil prices helped maintain the weeks rally, in conjunction with option triple witching, adding to the volatility. Yesterday's bearish haramis and hanging men were negated in all markets based on today's close. The lack of volume in each of the market rallies is a concern, with only one accumulation day on below average volume to show for the weeks work. Technical strength is improving, suggesting the 52-week lows made during the prior week are significant support. This is supported by bullish moving average crossovers in the secondary indicators ($BPCOMPQ, $NAA50 and $NASI). Longs should be looking to the next pullback to add to positions, but buying close to major resistance (the triple bottom in the the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) will leave one vulnerable to whipsaw. The Dow and S&P are approaching the last reaction highs, 10,150 in the Dow, and 1,108 in the S&P - so look for a dogfight at resistance, both markets sit at, or below, resistance of broadening wedges. The Philly Sox index remains vulnerable, having failed to close inside the declining channel, but the Russell 2000 is showing resilience, with new reaction highs in the MACD and slow stochastics.

Gold prices smashed through $409 resistance, although the MACD trigger line failed to confirm the breakout and gold stocks are short term toppish, closing at resistance of large triangles (eg. see HL). KGC was a real flyer in late afternoon trading. ATPG followed through on a channel trendline break, but volume was light and technicals remain weak so bulls shouldn't get too excited. CMN broke trendline resistance of its own, but did so on weak volume, although technical strength suggests there should be a test of the 52-week high at minimum (MACD trigger line over zero, slow stochastics over mid-line). QCOM burst to new 52-week highs, catching many shorts unawares, although overall volume remained light. There was no stock related news to account for today's move. Similarly, DHB lept above a bearish wedge, but the spinning top implies plenty of indecision on the part of bulls and bears - low volume and poor technicals suggests the bears will take control next week. LEXR lept over 10% as recent tight trading favored the bulls - the stock has taken some hard hits of late, but was relatively immune to the August wipeout, it closed at $6.05. GI followed through on a bullish wedge breakout on light volume, significant resistance remains at the double top around $25.50. OMNI broke $4.00 resistance, and followed through on a modest volume spike following some heavy volume trading at the start of August. OVTI is currently undergoing some decent accumulation having bounced off support of a strong bullish divergence in the MACD trigger line.

Not all stocks were winners. ANIK looks to be a decent short play - as it confirmed a bounce off prior support. Market leaders like steel producers may be approaching the end of their run, ZEUS did not benefit from the weeks rally, remaining below significant resistance from a gap down. Similarly, OS, failed to move to new 52-week highs. Watch for rotation to new market leaders.

Breakout failures: none

Breakout targets met: none

Aug 19th: Markets stumbled into resistance as the Google IPO stole the show. Markets finished on bearish reversals as marked by the haramis (todays open/close inside yesterdays), or hanging men (difference in todays high and low is greater than twice the difference of todays open/close). Volume came in lighter than yesterday - a bullish marker, so should markets close lower tomorrow it will also be important for volume to decline to keep the uptrend intact. Monday will be the real test of the rally as options expiration will no longer be a factor for another month. Bearish haramis were marked in the tech indices, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. Bearish hanging men occurred in the Dow and S&P. Secondary indicators $BPCOMPQ, and $NASI continued to rise - another tick in favor for a bottom in the market. Gold stocks were the real winners today, but look overbought in the short term.

Aug 18th: Only a brief summary today - but gold patrons should have received their newsletter. Today marked the first day of accumulation in the markets, although it should be tempered by options expiration week. The real test of this rally will be next Monday, but we can speculate that last week was the bottom and next week should see the confirmation of this bottom (and a good opportunity to go long if selling volume is light). As in previous rallies of this ilk, markets have stumbled as they approached the initial reaction high following the break of the prior trend, which for the NASDAQ is around 1,925, 10,0150 in the Dow, 1,435 in the NASDAQ 100, and 1,108 in the S&P. Tomorrow could see some further upside, but if the real body (ie the difference between the open and close) is small, then the chance of a reversal back to last week's lows increases. On a positive note, secondary indicators [$BPCOMPQ, $NASI, and $NAA50] crossed their 5-day moving averages - a bullish marker. Now it is time to watch for bullish divergences with respect to the market indices (if markets make new lows, but secondary indicators fail to confirm these lows with new lows of their own).

Aug 17th: If yesterday gave hope to the bulls, today would have taken it away. The morning gap did little to drive an enthusiasm for buying as oil prices crept up. Bearish shooting stars (strong white candlestick the previous day, gap up, todays inverse hammer) in the tech markets signal a move back to last week's support. It will take a close above today's highs to negate the bearishness of the shooting star. Volume was higher in the NASDAQ, and NASDAQ 100, but for the last 3-days it has remained well below average. The breakdown gaps held - another bearish marker. The Philly Sox completed the third day of a weak rally but remains below resistance, further pressuring the tech indices. The Dow broke out of its "box" and closed above resistance, but the inverse hammer is bearish as 10,000 failed to hold at the close. Similarly, the S&P struggled at prior support of 1,084, ending on a bearish inverse hammer. The $NAA50 continues to hold bullish divergences in MACD, RSI, and slow stochastics which still favors a major rally at some point in the (immediate) future. So, although bearishness is indicated for tomorrow, a bullish undercurrent is likely been driven by value players.

Gold prices completed a bullish 3-white-soldier sequence of candlesticks as it edged towards resistance. KGC broke resistance of a recent 3-week consolidation on rising volume, closing with its own 3-white-solider combination. A similar sequence appeared in SIL. Although in SSRI the pattern was followed by a bearish harami (open/close of today inside open/close of yesterday).

ATPG swung back to the bears as it closed at three day lows on above average volume following yesterday's higher volume reversal. ASE is creating its own bearish wedge on very weak technicals. AMW completed a bullih morning star, but watch resistance at $0.90. CBTE shed 10.93% as it moves to retest its triangle breakdown low of $3.36, it closed today at $3.91. DHB ended the day on bearish cloud cover - returning control to the bears and the big gap to $9.30 to close. The ERES relief bounce looks complete following today's failure to close over $20.00. OS eneded the day on a bearish inverse hammer. MTZ dropped below support following the resignation of 3 directors. PSYS resumed its downward trend as the MACD trigger line dropped to new 6-month lows. Penny stock, ECGI, lost $0.40 support continuing an lengthy decline.

Breakout failures: none

Aug 16th: Relief bounce or bottom? The drop in oil prices and positive outlooks in retailing were factors driving today's upswing. Oil prices ended the day on a bearish harami which should be bullish for the market, and lead to a retracement in oil prices back to $42.50 a barrel (oil closed at $45.69). On the negative front, volume was lacklustre, a reflection of vacation trading? A rally in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 is likely to stall at the breakdown gaps, which loom large overhead. The Philly Sox index wasn't quite the party maker which the main indices enjoyed, and remains the doubting Thomas in an otherwise good day for the tech indices. The Russell 2000, Dow and S&P are battling support/resistance of a 7-day consolidation, the break of which will determine the direction of the markets into September.

Gold prices broke resistance which should benefit precious metal stocks over the coming days. The metal closed at $405, just $5 shy of important $410 resistance. Silver prices remained $6.80 resistance, watch for an upside break tomorrow. SSRI added to its triangle breakout, ending a bullish 3-white soldier sequence. ATPG completed a bullish piercing pattern on higher volume, but future weakness in oil prices should restrict the bounce to the sub-$10 level. ENWV traded on heavy volume as it attempts to follow through from its July breakout. HDI broke a bullish flag on light volume, but needs to close over $60.00 to suggest it can challenge new highs, it closed today at $59.51. SIRI ended on a bearish inverse hammer, resistance at $2.30 is thwarting any attempt at a rally and a retest of $2.01 looks favored at this point. ECOL continues to map a bear flag, look for downside to continue. DHB closed at resistance on light volume, but completed a bullish piercing pattern.

Breakout failures: none

Aug 13th: Markets traded flat for most of the day on light volume as oil prices added another dollar. The widening deficit further stressed the market, weakening the dollar, but strengthening precious metal stocks, gold and silver. Unfortunately, market technical indicators, like the MACD, ticked down, suggesting today's trading was little more that a blip in the decline. Bulls will look to bullish haramis as potential reversal signals (todays open/close range inside the open/close range of yesterday), but the lack of volume does not suggest this will come to fruition (watch futures for leads - a gap up would provide some hope, but markets would have to close over Thursday's highs to confirm the reversal). The uptick in the ADX indicator (a measure of trend strength) of the Philly Sox index, suggests there is more bad news to come. This will impact negatively on the tech indices, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. Only the Dow and S&P closed above (5-day) support, having breached it intraday, but the lack of volume (and the tick down in MACD) does not suggest much demand at this level. The Russell 2000 looks similarly bleak.

Although oil prices rose, energy related ATPG confirmed yesterdays pennant break by shedding over 6% on above average volume. AAC gained 10% after releasing its earnings. INTC managed a bullish harami cross with slightly higher, but comparatively average, volume to yesterday. JDSU, NT, and SUNW ended with similar chart patterns, but todays volume was significantly less than yesterday's. SIRI held yesterday's support of a bullish tweezer bottom, but still has plenty of work to do to begin a rally. ECOL small rally died a death on today's bearish engulfing pattern. IDEV's rally looks similarly imperiled. AMW capitulated its recent declines, closing down 11.54% on heavy volume, watch for relief bounce on Monday. ERES broke a rising wedge to the downside, shedding 10% in the process, there was no stock related news to account for the decline. IVAN found some support after its sharp retracement, gaining 12%. Penny stock, LLMG, continued its bounce after yesterday's bullish piercing pattern, closing at $0.26, $0.07 shy of the week's high. OPSW eased an additional 3.6% as it inched towards yesterday's hammer support of $4.60. It closed today at $4.82. Penny stocks, MOBL, NYRR, and NMKT all performed well, while ONEV broke support to the downside.

Breakout failures: OIS featured on August 4th. TLPE featured on July 20th. UNM featured on August 6th.

Aug 12th: Strong retail earnings from Wal-Mart and Target were overshadowed by the tech wreck of HPQ's results. However, Dell brightened the picture after hours with a strong report, pushing futures up after hours. What this will do for the markets remains to be seen. Watch the NASDAQ for a test of 1,780 tomorrow. A short covering drive could bring the composite back to 1,800 as we near options expiration next week. Whether we have a bottom in place will depend on the up volume. Similarly, watch the NASDAQ 100 for a test of 1,330 tomorrow and a rally to 1,345. Technicals in both these indices continue to tick down, but a bullish divergence is apparent in the MACD histogram (but not the trigger line, which lost support). Unfortunately, the Sox took another hit and does not appear to have bottomed. The Russell 2000 closed at a new low, negating a 4-day support level. The Dow and S&P cling on to 4-day support, but both look to have completed bearish falling-3-method continuation signals.

There was little joy on my public stockchart list. ATPG closed below support of its pennant with decreasing technical strength. CMN closed its breakdown gap, ending on a bearish engulfing pattern on low volume. INTC closed lower, negating any reversal potential of yesterday's doji. NT lost support of $3.30. SUNW sits at support of its declining channel. ATEA lost 29% as it crashed through support following its earnings release. AMW accelerated its losses to the downside after weeks of tight trading. CBTE ended the day on a gravestone doji at resistance, completing a relief bounce off $3.36, it closed today at $4.44. DHB sits poised to drop into its breakout gap, closing just above $12.50 support. OS shed 5% as it inched towards $12.50 support, but todays move confirmed the breakdown from the triangle. PSYS initiated a relief bounce; a large bullish engulfing pattern on light volume. SIM closed its breakdown gap, but ended on a bearish cloud cover candle.

On the positive side, IDEV gained in the run up to earnings next week, the last three days counts as a bullish three white soldier combination, but volume was light. SIRI lost another 5% but closed above yesterdays lows, leaving a bullish tweezers bottom. Look for higher prices. OPSW capitulated on heavy volume, ending the day on a bullish hammer, place GTC buy orders between $4.60 and $5.00. Penny stock, GSPM, ended on a bullish hammer on higher volume. A second stock, NMKT, gained 40% on strong earnings.

Aug 11th: Earnings were the worry of the day, with oil prices a lurking background threat. Potential bullish hammers in the tech indices, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, were overshadowed by the collapse in the Sox index. Volume was higher which suggests todays lows should have merit as support, but the Philly Semi-conductor index will dictate if the lows will hold. The gaps in the tech indices from last week are likely measuring gaps for the decline (the July gap was the breakdown gap), if these pan out then lows of 1,580 and 1,280 can be expected in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 respectively, However, 1,768 in the NASDAQ, and 1,274 in the NASDAQ 100, are the 38% retracement level for the move off October 2002 lows which should contribute to support (1,531 and 1,087 are the 62% retracements). The Dow held the bear trap after dipping below 9,910 support in morning trading. The S&P and Russell 2000 ended on bullish hammers, closing in the upper range of yesterday's trading.

Gold prices eased below $400 which had a corresponding knock on gold stocks. Silver were similarly depressed. Obviously, CSCO was the big loser of the day, but stocks on my public list were mostly quiet. Weak (shortable) bounces are occuring in ANIK, CMN, HDI, ZEUS, OS, QCOM and ATEA. JDSU reversed yesterday's bounce but still holds the breakout gap. INTC ended on a doji close to support with a bullish divergence in the MACD trigger line. LU gapped down from support. SIRI completed a capitulation on a bullish hammer. ECOL completed a bullish engulfing pattern following yesterday's bullish hammer, but technicals continued to tick down. AMW broke its triangle to the downside on modest volume. IVAN's black candlestick is a bearish marker and favors a move to $1.22. LMMG crashed back to support of $0.18 having reached a high of $0.33 last week.

Breakout failures: FCN featured on July 28th.

Aug 10th: Markets rallied in light of Greenspan's "measured" interest rate hike, but the lack of volume (although higher than Mondays => counts as accumulation), and the traditionally disappointing CSCO earnings released after hours will see a stiff test of market resolve on tomorrow's open. Things to watch for tomorrow are a test of last weeks breakdown gaps in the tech indices (1,820 in the NASDAQ, 1,353 in the NASDAQ 100), volume in all markets - assuming it will be a down day it should come in lighter than today to suggest a bottom is in place, and a move above major resistance of 1,092 in the S&P. The Dow managed to regain 9,910 level on higher volume, marking a potential bear trap should this level hold tomorrow - a bullish buy signal. The Sox continued to hover close to support of the declining channel, and the bullish divergence in the MACD sets it up nicely for a catapult rally. The secondary market indicator, $NAA50, continues to hold its bullish divergence with respect to MACD and the RSI, and at 355 is close to lows for this indicator (250-650 is the range of prior trough lows, 141 was the all time low for this indicator). If fear spikes (volatility) tomorrow we could be looking at the final washout of the weak hands. There is certainly value out there to be found.

The majority of stocks on my public list rallied. Those doing so on volume were SNIC. The stock survived an analyst downgrade, but also, gained on news of ROXIO deal. The stock closed at $14.32, up 13.38%. ECOL ended the day on a bullish hammer, but the technicals do not indicate strength. Look for bounce to $10.00 before supply issues kick it back down. GI's afternoon conference call didn't help the stock. The large bearish cloud cover suggests downside will continue. TASR's black candlestick on higher volume suggests supply remains a concern, which likely favors a break of $25 at this point. Todays rally was inspired by new weapon orders. Penny stock, UDW, bounced off $0.95 support lows, ending the day on a bullish harami on modest volume. Watch for upside tomorrow.

Aug 9th: Markets prepared for tomorrow's Greenspan comments and 0.25 basis point rate hike. But today, oil fears kept a lid on any rally, although the NASDAQ 100, Dow, S&P, and Russell 2000 finished on bullish harami crosses (a strong reversal signal), with the NASDAQ managing a traditional bullish harami. A gap up open tomorrow would give a strong indication of a bullish turnaround - watch futures for leads. The volatility index added weight for a rally Tuesday or Wednesday by closing on a bearish black candlestick - look for a drop in fear over the coming days. Bullish haramis were evident in all three market tracker stocks, DIA, QQQ, and SPY. The only bearish note to these bullish formations was the lack of buying volume - this should be rectified tomorrow on a strong morning. Buying a break of todays highs in each of these markets would be an aggressive long signal - although a retest of any breakout gap is likely over the coming weeks (an opportunity to add, or to take a lower risk position).

Given the sideways action in the overall markets, there were plenty of stocks making moves. The mining sector looks good value here as the underlying base metals, gold and silver rallied. Best value appears to be in stocks like CDE, BGO, GSS, and KGC. Although oil prices rose, energy related stocks look to be entering relief bounces, for example, ATPG failed to build on Friday's bullish inverse hammer - closing slightly down for the day after opening higher. CMN attempted a bullish piercing pattern off support, but technicals remain very weak - suggesting the move is a relief bounce. SBAC failed to hold a bullish doji, closing decisively lower on higher volume. VLTS continued to plummet after its failed break of $10.00, it closed today at $7.23. HDI begun its relief bounce after recent declines - today's volume was light, and if it continues in this vein it will again be short candidate at $60 - technicals are horrible. KNGT attempted its own bounce, but closed below former support of its rising wedge. SNIC ended on a bullish harami cross, the stock is heavily oversold and due for a bounce back to $17.00. Similar bottoms look in place for the security issues, VISG, MAGS, and IPIX. IVAN ran into resistance at $2.00 as it reversed sharply following it's earnings release. JDSU held support of its former breakout gap. It is an aggressive buy with stops on a loss of todays lows. SIRI continued to suffer following XMSR's earnings release. ECOL shed a dollar to close at $9.38 following last weeks breakdown from a symmetrical triangle. Technicals remain very weak here. Penny stock, LLMG, rallied to an intraday high of $0.33, but ended the day at $0.28 after some very heavy trading. ZEUS held breakout support on low volume. Technicals suggest the bounce will be a relief bounce to close the breakdown gap at $23.00 before the price rolls over for good. Longs should look for higher volume in the rally if current holds, or new positions, are to be maintained.

Todays breakout failure was RI featured on July 16th - this stock actually hit its stop on Friday. There were no breakout candidates for tomorrow. The oversold rally should bring some up. Shorting failed breakouts remains the best short term strategy.

Aug 6th: Fear selling was rampant as yesterday's breakdowns followed through on heavier volume. The woeful jobs report pulled the rug from bulls already skittish from rising oil prices. Bulls were left biting their nails in the hope of an island reversal next week, looking to the secondary indicators as a marker for a bounce [$BPCOMPQ, $NASI, and $NAA50]. The sell off in the markets carried similarites to that in March. The declines in the Dow, and S&P mapped the declines from January highs and if they repeat we should see a rapid rally to close the gap, a return to new lows, and then the election rally everyone is looking for. Should the gap close and the market maintain a close above this gap, then the election rally will have begun. Too early to say - but a move to close the gap on Monday or Tuesday looks the best short term play here. The NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and Russell 2000 closed outside of their lower Bollinger bands (1,801, 1,339, and 525, for the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and Russell 2000 respectively) - a traditional aggressive buy. The Sox closed outside of its declining channel for the first time, but bullish divergences remain in its MACD and slow stochastics.

Plenty of losers, few winners. On the plus side, IVAN added to yesterday's bull strength on heavy volume. Penny stock, LLMG, made further inroads towards $0.51 resistance on rising volume, it closed today at $0.28. ATPG attempted on a bullish inverse hammer at support, but volume was light. SBAC finished lower, but ended on a bullish doji, move stops to todays lows. SIRI closed on a doji, perhaps forming a double bottom - selling into the second bottom was lighter than the first, a sign of seller exhaustion. The Dow tracker stock, DIA, sits at a meeting of two key support levels, an aggressive buy is favored here. Unfortunately, the stories of the day were the losers; AM lost support of its wedge - suggesting worse to come, KNGT crashed below its rising wedge, this could trace the entire move up. TDS followed through to the downside, sitting just above $74.50 support. QCOM broke its recent congestion to the downside, next target for this stock is $61.20, it closed today at $67.55. SUNW moved to new lows, negating recent support of a double bottom. DHB reversed its bullish break of an ascending triangle, setting up a bull trap and a favored move to $10.00. DGII moved from a breakout earlier this week to a breakdown today. MAGS lost support of its rising window, there is still one support level at $11.76 left, but todays break is likely to be significant (as resistance) on any rally from here. OS broke support from its ascending triangle - look for a move to $12.32 at minimum, and potentially down to $9.05. OVTI gapped down below support, look for move to lower trendline. PSYS broke its sideways congestion to the downside, target for the break is $18.00, it closed today at $24.01. TASR recovered from its recent sell off at support, but a larger bearish triangle remains. UDW reversed its recent bounce, $1.03 support was lost, only $0.95 support remains.

Further breakouts toppled. ACO which featured twice on Aug 2nd reversed its breakout - leaving "trapped bulls". AIT featured on June 15th crashed through its stop after reaching a 52-week high of $33.00 ($1.64 short of target). CHTT featured on July 16th hit its stop. JOYG clipped its stop on a large doji. It featured on Aug 4th. SFCC hit its stop after an earlier "bull trap", it featured on July 30th.

Aug 5th: What went down to help the markets yesterday, reversed sharply to kill them today. Oil prices went from technical bearish yesterday to technical bullish today as shorts were forced to cover. The increase in volume and the lack of a measurable pullback has the makings of an exhaustion run in the commodity. This is short term bearish for the market (other than energy related stocks) and should bring the capitulation the market craves. The spike in fear ($VXN) contributed to the panic. Tomorrow's jobs report will likely be overshadowed by oil price pressure over the coming couple of weeks. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 closed at new yearly lows as technicals turned back to the downside. The breakdown negated a bullish head-and-shoulder reversal pattern in the NASDAQ, and a triple bottom in the NASDAQ 100. The good/bad news was the lighter volume, which can either mean more downside until we see a capitulation, or a sharp reversal on higher volume to mark a potential bear trap. If the latter is to come true it will need to happen within the next couple of days with a close over 1,830 in the NASDAQ, or 1,368 in the NASDAQ 100 - the jobs report is the bulls best hope - and even then, a bullish followthrough on higher volume will be needed within the next 2 weeks. In this environment, cash is king. No index escaped the selling wrath, the Russell 2000, Dow, and S&P all threatened support, but remained above May lows - if only just. Some bulls will look to the Sox for support as it remained relatively unscathed from todays downdraft. Secondary indicators, $BPCOMPQ, $NASI, and $NAA50 continue to map bullish divergences - which suggests a larger rally is closer than we think. The likely outcome of all this is a short sharp shock driven by an exhaustion run in oil prices, followed by an equally sharp rally driven by value buyers in the run up to the election.

There was only one positive exception to the selling rout on my stock list. IVAN rallied 25% on huge volume as it announced an 82% increase in oil production. But the real market stories were the reversals, and there were many casualties; ATPG, CMN, TDS, VLTS, SNIC, VISG, IPIX, ERES, INTC, NT, QCOM, ESGR, GI, PSYS, and ECGI. Precious metal stocks as a group showed continued weakness as breakdowns from bearish patterns intensified.

Not surpisingly, there was one more breakout failure. PLLL which featured twice on June 21st and July 20th clipped the higher of its stops today.

Aug 4th: The swift reversal in oil prices, ending the day on a bearish engulfing pattern, sparked a brief rally in the markets. Unfortunately, the drop in oil prices was not the bullish catalyst needed to reverse yesterday's declines. The NASDAQ ended the day on a spinning top on higher volume - bulls and bears continue to struggle and neither has the edge. The NASDAQ 100 had a close similar to yesterday's on higher volume, a potential reversal, although a rally above 1390 is unlikely to hold without a rise in volume. The tech indices were helped by the Sox holding support and greater strength in the Russell 2000. The Dow failed to close above 10,150 resistance, although 10,000 did act as support, while the S&P ended on a bullish doji, closing near the days highs.

Weakness in gold has overshadowed strength in silver, as silver stocks PAAS and SIL broke bearish flags to the downside. Precious metal stocks continue to base and longs should wait for the underlying metals to break to new 3-month highs before commiting.

Some stocks attempted to break resistance on todays rally. Breakout candidate, TDS nipped over resistance of its consolidation pennant. SNIC formed a bullish harami, but volume was well below yesterday's, so it should be watched for changes in upside volume. LU regained support on higher volume, ending on a bullish piercing pattern, watch for a short covering rally. On the negative front, VISG broke support on light volume, further lows look faovred as previous good news has had little positive influence in the stock. SIRI lossess acclerated, todays trading suggests lower prices tomorrow morning. ECOL dipped below support of its triangle, lower prices tomorrow would complete a bearish falling-3-methods sequence. ERES losses accelerate, look for a break of $21.85, it closed today at $22.48. IPIX is forming a bearish descending triangle - look for a similar collapse as hit VISG. UDW is attempting a double bottom with a small volume spike at support.

A few more breakouts hit their stops. COGN which featured on June 25th hit its stop after losing support yesterday.

Aug 3rd: The markets were showing signs of struggle late last week, but there was a gliimer of hope yesterday that something better was in the offing, only for bears to return with avengence today. A weak consumer report was the cause of the current decline. Markets returned all of yesterday's gains, and them some, in sharp declines. Volume was light, but breakdown's do not need strong volume for confirmation. At this point we are looking at tests of July lows, so it is best to stand aside until markets feel out these lows. The Sox looks the most vulnerable to further losses as its nascent rally off support encountered trouble maintaining its run. Should this fall outside of its channel it will spell further trouble for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. The Dow left behind a bull trap, the last time it did this was near the end of June and it is clear to see what followed. The volatility index closed higher, negating yesterday's bearish black hammer.

Not surprisingly, stocks suffered. ANIK broke support of a descending triangle on higher volume. This was a prior successful breakout play, but now looks vulnerable to further selling. HDI lost near term support on light volume, but look for a pickup in the downside tomorrow. SNIC crashed on its earnings release, shedding 20% on huge volume. LU edged below $3.00 support, continuing a decline started at $3.87, further losses look likely. SIRI's pennant breakout is running into trouble - recent price action suggests the initial upside move was a bull trap, a move to $2.25 is favored. ERES confirmed a bear flag as it closed below support. OPSW closed below support of it's July congestion, there was no news to account for the move.

Not all was doom and gloom. Breakout candidate, DGII closed in the upper part of a consolidation following its break of $11.00 resistance. Another breakout candidate, GI, is on the verge of the next phase of its rally - it sits on closing resistance of $25.55, although current upside volume is a little on the shy side. OMNI completed its short sharp shock, rally 31% on above average volume - there was no news to account for the move

Todays selling caused a few more breakouts to fail. IT which featured on June 21st hit its stop after weeks of steady declines. VRNT, which featured on June 29th hit its stop after an initial gap down and rally.

Aug 2nd: Markets inched higher, holding last weeks gains in the face of a terror warning. Market volume was mixed, higher in the NASDAQ, but lower in the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ 100. The large red candlestick which marked heavier selling two weeks ago remains dominant in all markets, with the exception of the Dow. Resistance from this selling sits at 1,933 for the NASDAQ, 1,433 for the NASDAQ 100, 1,108 for the S&P and 567 in the Russell 2000. The Dow broke over 10,150 resistance, ending the bearishness of last weeks small rising white real bodies, but volume continued to decline in this week long rally. The S&P ended the day on small gains, but has a similar declining volume pattern. The NASDAQ gapped down at the open, held that gap as resistance over the course of the trading day, but closed higher in late day trading. The NASDAQ 100 ended the day on a bullish piercing pattern, but held resistance at 1,410.

Precious metal stocks look to have completed week long bearish flags. Silver stocks (PAAS, SIL, and SSRI) ended on bearish dojis or bearish hanging men after 3-4 days of gains. Watch for break of todays lows for confirmation.

Not all stocks had a quiet day. ASE crashed lower on higher volume, reversing last Friday's move to new highs. ATPG lept to new highs on higher volume, marking a new breakout. SBAC looks set to pullback after early day moves to new highs reversed to close near the lows - ending the day on a bearish inverse hammer. VLTS moved to new highs, negating last weeks bearish engulfing pattern. CSCO closed on a bullish engulfing pattern, building for a move to test $22.00. INTC completed a bullish three white soldiers combination - adding strength to a move to close its breakdown gap. NT is in the process of closing its gap - moving into the gap and above the highs of last weeks sell off. QCOM rallied on higher volume, likely fueled by short covering, a break of $73 would be very bullish for the stock. ATEA's relief bounce looks to have completed on todays bearish cloud cover. DHB broke its ascending triangle to new highs on strong volume. MAGS small rally last week met a stumbling block as it ended on bearish cloud cover.

Stockchart public list - please remember to vote!

Back to top