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User id: member email. Password: gold

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 30th: Markets spent the past few days inching higher, but today saw the first sign that bears were going to make a run on the market. Volume climbed to register an across the board distribution day. The Dow and NASDAQ 100 reversed shy of their 200-day MAs, with the Dow closing with a bearish gravestone doji. The semiconductor index took the biggest loss on the day, but did enough to hold above 380 support.

Wednesday's action suggests the start of a retreat back to the 20-day MAs, and potentially 50-day MAs for the various indices. There was no significant technical damage, although markets are heavily overbought on short [14,3] and intermediate [39,1] term stochastics. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] likely weakened, but not to the extent they triggered a bearish cross of their 5-day EMAs. I recommend reading Richard Lehman's 'Trend Channel Magic' public Stockchart.com list over the coming days; he is suggesting a more pronounced decline than a simple test of the 50-day MAs. His charts suggest this, but the likely outcome will probably be something in between, i.e. further sideways action.

Target hit: DV was a Subscriber pick fpr April 7th and closed with a 24% gain.

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 28th: One day to go, one day to go, with markets waiting in anticipation of the Fed. There is very little to say; the NASDAQ 100 gained the most while the Russell 2000 reversed what was a relatively minor breakout from Monday. There was no great loss technically, just minor bumps on the way to Wednesday's fun and games. Volume climbed a little in the Dow and S&P to suggest distribution days in each, but volume wasn't significant when compared to January's.

As for tomorrow, there is still enough juice in the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] to suggest this rally could continue for another few months, and if it was to repeat the antics of 2006 it could last another year! However, the latter would appear unlikely given the bear market lows these indicators made in January.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: TWN hit its stop after the seventh consecutive day of losses. The April 8th pick closed for a 5% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 27th: The only index to make any kind of move was the Russell 2000, but it looks like markets are waiting on the Fed and GDP before deciding which way to go. The stage looks set for a Fed rally to the 200-day MA and then a pullback of substance to relieve overbought conditions. I doubt there will be enough from this week's figures to push a decisive break of the 200-day MAs. Time will tell. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] had yet to update at time of writing but are unlikely to have changed too much.

Target hit: GHM was a Subscriber pick for March 26th. The play closed for a 64% gain.

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 26th: Bulls kept the rally ticking over for the weekend. No spectacular gains or losses and minimal volume left markets with little to talk about. Technicals were also unchanged; all remained bullish for the indices. The Russell 2000 struggled to break to new closing highs and next week will be another opportunity for it to do so. Large caps [Dow and S&P] did enough to edge new highs, but remain vulnerable to reversal given their modest gains.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] gained the most Friday. There were breakouts for the Nasdaq Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) and the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R), supported by new reaction highs for the Summation Index ($NASI). Because of strength in NASDAQ market breadth indicators (as representative of other indices) I am bullish for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 24th: Markets attempted to break from three days of consolidation on higher volume. Large caps [Dow and S&P] were more restrained than Tech [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100], with the Russell 2000 behaving like the Large caps as it failed to close at new highs. The NASDAQ 100 looks like it will be the first to test its 200-day MA and may be used as a proxy for the other indices. In the short term, markets are overbought over the near and intermediate term. The only index under a confirmed rally (ADX > 20) is the NASDAQ 100.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] diverged with the Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) shaping a double (triple?) top, while the Summation index ($NASI) and Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) rose slowly. Which will win out?

Target hit: None

Stop hit: ME hit its stop to close the April 17th Subscriber pick for a 6% loss and the February 25th play for a 3% gain.

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 19th: Big gains generated breakouts for nearly all the indices, only the Russell 2000 failed in its attempts to break to new high ground. The Dow cracked past resistance with a significant surge in volume laying to rest the (almost three month) consolidation. The same could be said for the S&P. The resistance breaks for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 ended on doji - mixed signals, but given the new highs on volume it is perhaps prudent to give bulls the advantage here. The new breakout in the semiconductor index will help the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. The 200-day MAs are back in line as upside targets. Whatever technical damage crept into the indices last week was quickly reversed with all indices (including the Russell 2000) showing supporting technicals in the green.

Relative strength shifted sharply in favor of tech {Tech > Small caps > Large caps}. Weakness in small caps is a concern, although as long as money flows into more speculative tech compared to conservative large caps, the health of the nascent bull market is secure. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] all rose, although there was an interesting divergence on a MACD trigger 'sell' with a bullish cross of the 5-day 'EMA' for the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ). The other interesting move was the sharp drop in volatility, moving below its 200-day MA. So far, so good for bulls.

In summary, Friday was no reason to change the bullish call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 17th: A very respectable close after Wednesday's solid gains. The issues which affected the indices yesterday are still in play as of Thursday's close; chiefly April high resistance. There were some minor technical improvements with MACD and on-balance-volume 'buy' triggers for the Dow, and similar MACD 'buys' in the NASDAQ, S&P and Russell 2000. But all of these signals came from relatively flat starting points so too much should not be read into them.

No sooner had all three Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] crossed below their 5-day EMAs, than two: the Percentage of Stocks Above 50-day MA ($NAA50R) and Summation Index ($NASI), returned above the 5-day EMAs - restoring the bullish perspective. The Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) looks ready to do likewise.

Things are nicely set up for a follow through day (higher), but a niggling loss day would likely see a drip drip back to Wednesday's open.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 16th: A big day for the markets as strong earnings gave bulls something to cheer, although larger resistance from the past couple of months remains. The 50-day MAs (and 20-day MAs) which had been resistance turned into support. The semiconductor index was the biggest winner as it jumped over 5%, reversing three days of declines. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 have room to maneuver before challenging April highs, with the S&P and Russell 2000 a little closer to breaking through and the Dow right at April high resistance. Supporting technicals improved with price, undoing nearly all the damage done in recent days.

Stochastics never made it to oversold levels, so those who waited for a 'buy' signal lost out as the market zoomed higher. Shorts will be under plenty of pressure if April highs get taken out. The 200-day MAs are now a closer test than the March lows. Bulls will be looking for more days like today. Bears are struggling with a sideways market and will be hurting more if new April highs are made - the strong decline from earlier this year and late 2007 a distant memory. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] hadn't updated at time of writing, but the assumption is for a higher close which may convert the recent 'sell' triggers into 'bear traps'.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 15th: A strong finish reversed late morning losses. This is the kind of action from which bullish rallies are made. Individual indices are only a day or two away from short term oversold conditions - although doji in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, semiconductor index, and S&P could conceivably mark Tuesday as such a bottom. Buying a break of Tuesday's highs with a stop on a break of lows could work nicely for the aforementioned indices. From a moving average perspective there was little change; indices which had lost key moving average support still finished the day below these averages. The NASDAQ 100 made an intraday touch of its 50-day MA before pushing higher into the close.

The Russell 2000 took the leadership role off the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ - a bullish move. Although large caps look to jump over tech too which would not be so bullish. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] all lie below their 5-day EMAs given the Summation index was the last to crack. Weakness has started to spread into supporting technicals. The Percentage of Stocks Above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R) is only a stochastic crossover away from a complete bearish picture.

March lows anyone?

Target hit: None

Stop hit: JST gave back $31.15 support to drop sharply into its stop for a 10% loss. SNX clipped its stop as $20.30 support was lost. The April 1st pick closed for a 5% lost. WATG hit its stop at the lows. The April 2nd play closed for a 5% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 14th: The market took another slap in the face as indices closed lower. The big change came in the MACD trigger 'sells' for the NASDAQ, Dow, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, and S&P (a clean sweep!), but on a point loss basis there were only minor declines for these indices. Two indices trade above their 50-day MAs; the NASDAQ 100 and semiconductor index - although the latter index barely made the cut.

The indices may be down, but not out. The ADX of all the aforementioned indices is below 20; an indication of a sideways market. The ADX of many of these indices dropped from levels in the 30s and 40s (50s for the semiconductor index) during the height of the 2007 decline when the markets were at full bear force, so weakness in this indicator is a sign of strength. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] hadn't updated at time of writing but were likely weaker.

As things stand Monday, markets are on course to retest March lows.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: AXYS edged below $47.95 support to exit at its March 25th stop for a 4% loss. The earlier February pick closed for a 4% gain. CLS pulled a similar move to reverse the $7.22 breakout. The April 11th Subscriber pick closed for a 6% loss, the earlier March pick for a 6% gain. TRLG closed below its stop and 200-day MA to finish with a 6% loss. VRSN had a short lived existence as the April 11th play closed for a 4% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 13th: Plenty of action on Friday after a quiet early week. The 20-day and 50-day MAs were broken to the downside on light volume for the NASDAQ with the index on course to retest prior declining resistance, potentially combined with a retest of March lows. The NASDAQ 100 still has the 50-day MA to look forward too, although it said goodbye to its 20-day MA. The semiconductor index shed over 3% Friday, but has yet to test converged support of its 50-day and 20-day MAs. The Dow suffered most on the back of disappointing GE results, closing away from resistance on a huge jump in volume. A return to consolidation support around 11,825 looks the best bet here. A similar picture is in play for the S&P with a test of 1,270 the watch word for this index. The Russell 2000 left a large bull trap as it dropped below earlier resistance. A move back to consolidation support looks likely with a retest of March lows favored.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] further weakened. The Bullish Percent ($BPCOMPQ) broke below its 5-day EMA which also corresponded to the twin December peaks. There was a sharp downward trend in the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NAA50R), enough to trigger a MACD 'sell' in the process. This indicator has reversed near traditional bear market levels (60 usually) which is a concern. The Summation Index ($NASI) weakened without breaking it technically.

Based on the importance of January lows (although violated in March) I hold to a bullish outlook for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 10th: Bulls were able to undo much of the selling from Wednesday as semiconductors were upgraded by Banc of America. An unfortunate timing for an upgrade as I look to buy into November calls than the April expiring ones I sold, but great if you are currently holding semiconductor stocks! The 200-day MA is looking a very enticing upside target for the semiconductor index. Certainly any pullbacks to the 20-day and/or 50-day MA will be attractive buying propositions. Strength in the semiconductor index will benefit the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. The NASDAQ was helped by the bullish convergence of the 20-day and 50-day MAs. The Dow was able to break the cycle of lower highs and lower lows, but was contained by larger resistance connecting the double February high peaks. However, the index is very close to a confirmed breakout, even if in the short term it works its way back to converged 20-day and 50-day MAs. In contrast, the S&P was able to hold support created by the same February highs which marked resistance in the Dow. The Russell 2000 maintained support at the 50-day MA.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] continue to map a short term top, so it will take more than Thursday's gain to set these back on the up.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: IBOC just clipped its stop at the very lows of the day. The March 24th Subscriber pick closed for a 6% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 9th: The first wave of distribution swept tech markets as indices work on easing overbought conditions. Hardest hit were the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 with sharp losses on higher volume. But the semiconductor index avoided the worst of this damage and this could help the tech averages over the next couple of days. Last Monday's breakout is under threat. Only the combined 20-day and 50-day MAs stands between bulls and a run back to March lows. Large caps (Dow and S&P) enjoyed a quiet day on low volume, with the previous four days of tight trading extending into a fifth day. Small caps (Russell 2000) suffered along with Tech - bad news for speculative bull buyers.

Relative strength shifted back in favor of large caps {Large caps > Tech > Small caps; the most bearish alignment for markets}, which is another thing to consider if thinking of going long here. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are attempting to put in a short term top which will help take some of the heat off the climb from January lows. As is usually the case, the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA ($NASI) was the first to break below its 5-day EMA trigger line. Best to take a wait-and-see approach until short term overbought conditions relieve themselves

Target hit: None

Stop hit: TVIN hit its stop after its fourth day of declines. The April 4th Subscriber pick closed for a 13% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 8th: Weakness off the open threatened some indices more than others. Worst hit was the semiconductor index which looks destined to test the 20-day and/or 50-day MA of this index. This weakness impacted on the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 which gapped lower, but ended the day on narrow doji - a sign of balance between bulls and bears. Large caps (Dow and S&P) held their status quo with a fourth day of narrow trading. Swing traders can look to trade a break of the 4-day range with a stop on the reverse side; it's rare to see such lack of volatility especially given what has gone before. Technicals (across the indices) have remained bullish with short term stochastics overbought - the next few days should ease this condition, be it with flat, or downward price action.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] eased from recent gains, but remain well above January lows and some are entering what may be considered overbought levels during a bear market. Having said that, the Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) is someway from reaching bear market levels, but whatever happens in these indicators could have more serious repercussions for bulls.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: SLH fell into the clutches of its stop. The April 3rd Breakout closed for a 5% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 7th: Modest weakness as the indices held last Monday's big gains. Volume fit with a consolidation which is bullish in principle. The only negative is the short term overbought conditions across the indices. These could evolve into tests of the breakout gaps which produced the large one day gains. These gaps are most pronounced in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, with a lesser gap in the Russell 2000. There was no gap in the Dow (by nature of the index) and a small one in the S&P.

The broader picture for the market (as I see it) is bullish, but short term weakness should not just be expected, but welcomed. It is quite conceivable we could see another day like last Monday where bears get squeezed even harder. From a personal perspective, I hope that is not the case as I look to extend my SMH contracts by rolling into a later expiration month. I sold my April contracts and will look to buy November contracts at the same strike on weakness. So my near term expectations for the markets are somewhat clouded by what I am looking for (especially from the semiconductor index). Although not updated at writing, the Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] keep chugging along smoothly from a bulls perspective.

On a final note, volatility drifted below its 200-day MA which converts this level into resistance and sets the stage for a 2-3 month rally (or at least a rally long enough to last as contained by the 200-day MA). Bill over at Vix and More had noted the over emphasis by commentators on the 200-day MA as a support level for the VIX given the indicator is not directly tradable. I somewhat disagree given options are available for trade based on the VIX, but I see his point. So if you prefer Bill's point of view, the importance of the 200-day MA break in this regard would be less (or negligible).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: PTNR took a big hit south and is looking better short material than long. The March 14th play closed for a 6% loss. SATC also drifted away from its consolidation breakout. The April 4th play closed for a 7% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 4th: A quiet close to the week will have left bulls happiest after another disappointing jobs figure did not cause a sell off in the markets. Key consolidation breakouts during the week for the Dow, semiconductor index and Russell 2000 all held. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 also held more recent breakouts, having cleared longer term resistance before large and small caps. Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] all gained. Given the position of Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] and the strength of supporting indicators for the indices, it is hard to see a bearish aspect to this market. Overhead resistance derived from November lows are points of contention for the averages, but they are a scramble at that. My bullish call for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll (30-day S&P outlook) is easier under such conditions.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 3rd: Thursday's tradingwas similar to Wednesday's with a small intraday spread and low volume. For bulls, the breakouts earlier in the week continue to hold which will pressure existing shorts to cover. If January highs get taken out it will really pressure bears and encourage money to come in off the sidelines. The big winner on the day was the semiconductor index. Its solid 2.5% gain will quickly work its way through the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. January highs are only 10 points away for this former laggard and with the NASDAQ 100 pressuring January highs it could be the cue to drive this market higher. In terms of relative strength, the semiconductor index leads the NASDAQ 100. With small caps and technology stocks leading it is a good sign a new intermediate bull market is beginning. The 200-day MAs look the logical first test for this rally. Beyond that it will depend on how breadth indicators and volume behave.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: VPFG gapped down into its stop. The March 24th Subscriber pick closed for a 4% loss.

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 2nd: A quiet day all around with bears licking their wounds and bulls happy to see Tuesday's gains hold. There were some positive gains with supporting technicals of the semiconductor index all bullish. The Russell 2000 reasserted its leadership role after a 1-day break in favor of Tech stocks. This puts the markets in a more bullish alignment once more {Small caps > Tech > Large caps}. The NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Dow and S&P all enjoyed low volume stability. Tomorrow is another day.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

User id: Member email. Password: goldApril 1st: A solid gain confirmed last Monday's rally in the markets, but was this an April fool's joke? Volume was respectable, but not huge considering the percentage gains. However, a number of technical milestones were reached. Heading the list were the break of the 50-day MAs and declining resistance from January but there were bullish markers all around. The NASDAQ managed a new reaction high as it cleared its 50-day MA with confidence. Bullish trend strength gained over bearish strength [+DI > -DI] but the trend wasn't fully established (ADX < 20). The Dow edged a bullish break from its consolidation with all technicals bullish once more (on-balance-volume and trend strength switched bullish). The NASDAQ 100 was similar to the NASDAQ except its MACD trigger line lies comfortably above the bullish zero line and like the Dow, all of its supporting technicals are bullish. The Russell 2000 cleared consolidation resistance although it was interesting to see relative strength shift in favor of Tech - a more (unusual) bearish development {Tech > Small Caps > Large Caps}. The semiconductor index pushed past its 50-day MA which should be enough to complete the bottom for the index and help support rallies in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. Finally, the S&P cleared its 2-month consolidation, but the higher volume gains were enough to reverse bearish signals for on-balance-volume, trend strength and slow stochastics.

Nasdaq market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] were not left out of the party. There was a key triangle breakout for the Bullish Percents ($BPCOMPQ) with the Percentage of Nasdaq stocks ($NAA50R) rising to an impressive 50% (considering the extent of the prior selling). All three NASDAQ breadth indicators are in support of a rally, so now it is up to the NASDAQ to deliver. It shouldn't disappoint, nor should the other indices along with it.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

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