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Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 30th: Bears vented their frustration with a decisive break of channel support for small caps [Russell 2000], cleanly slicing the rising channel and negating whatever vestiges of a breakout it had managed in the face of other market gains. The swathe of profit taking spread to tech [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] and large caps [Dow and S&P], but bulls received some cold comfort with lower volume selling (only large caps registered a distribution day - although there was heavy distribution for the Russell 2000 iShares). The Russell 2000 had additional troubles with a MACD 'sell' trigger off the bearish divergence in the trigger line.

The other major shift came in tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] with big losses for the $NAA50R ending its rising channel, and breaks of the 5-day EMAs for the $NASI and $BPCOMPQ. There were also technical losses in the ultimate oscillator of these internals with 'sell' triggers for the $BPCOMPQ and $NASI following an earlier one for the $NAA50R. The $NAA50R suffered additional losses with a 'sell' trigger in its MACD and a bearish cross in trend strength [-DI > +DI: ADX < 20 = trendless, for now]. On a final note, volatility completed a bearish separating candlestick pair - the first steps for a move back to 25 (from 17).

Bears will be rubbing their hands with glee given the extent of Monday's technical damage. Bulls do have the comfort of nearby resistance; a couple of days of strong buying could consign Monday's trading to the history books. I do think bears have the edge and are due something after more or less a straight recovery from February's sell off.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: AKS never got off the ground, but the closed position did protect profits from the earlier January 24th and March 21st Breakout plays. The January position closed for a 67% gain. The March play closed for a 33% gain, but this mornings play closed for a 3% loss. EVC hit its stop from April 27th. An earlier Subscriber pick for February 20th closed for a 15% gain. The April 2nd and 27th Breakout plays closed for 5% gain and a 5% loss respectively. ULTI was another pick for Monday which failed miserably. The Subscriber pick closed for a 6% loss. TRY was a Subscriber pick for March 7th. The stock spent the past few weeks trading in a sideways pattern before eventually crashing through its 200-day MA for a 2% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 28th: The divergence between the NASDAQ and $NAA50R (percentage of Nasdaq stocks over their 50-day MA) grew as the latter broke below its 5-day EMA and March-April support, while the former tacked on a couple of points. Limited gains in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 were accompanied with another drop in volume, in line with a consolidation but also a good swing trade set up given the narrow intraday trading range (trade break of high/low with a stop on the flip side). The Dow registered slightly heavier volume, but its gains were also light. The Russell 2000 was the only index to struggle as it reversed its breakout, finishing on channel support for the second time in four days and the third in six - the chances of it breaking increase on each test. Monday will be an interesting day for small caps.

Of tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ], other than the break in the $NAA50R, there were losses for the $NASI (but no break of the 5-day EMA) and $BPCOMPQ. Finally, volatility continued to backtest former bullish wedge resistance (now support) suggesting another spike as happened in February's sell off will happen sooner rather than later. I have held to my bearish 4-week outlook as measured by the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll - and remain bearish for the longer term. However, when the market does make its next substantial correction (February's dip does not count given the minimal impact it had on the market internals [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ]) there is a good chance it may bottom at the point when I first turned cautious on the market given the gains it has posted since October/November!

Target hit: MBLX rushed to its target price. The April 24th Subscriber pick closed for a 29% gain.

Stop hit: ASX countered with a loss of support after a failed breakout. The April 16th breakout closed for a 5% loss. IIJI fell back into its long standing stop after failing to build off early gains. The December 7th Subscriber play closed for a 2% loss. YMI was a Subscriber pick for April 25th, but a bullish hammer on Friday resulted in a stop hit on the intraday lows for a 10% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 26th: Interesting dilemma in the markets. The $NAA50 (the internal which measures the number of Nasdaq stocks over their 50-day MA) closed lower and has congested into a tight triangle on March-April support. Given the events of the last 2 weeks (when the indices, including the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, rallied heavily) this important measure of market participation has stayed essentially flat. Adding to the troubles is what looks like a picture perfect 'evening star' at channel resistance for the NASDAQ 100; short term traders will look to short a break of Thursday's lows - likely led by a gap down from the open. The index which may surprise is the S&P. It consolidated in a tight range near the highs of Wednesday and could take another leap up on its way to a potential measured move target of 1,356. Bulls did take the volume award with Thursday's gains garnering little interest of behalf of traders, sellers in particular.

Another switch came in relative strength with tech averages nudging ahead of large caps, this is a bullish development given the prior alignment {Tech indices > Large caps > Small caps}. Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] have been dull, with none of the sharp advances often associated with gains in the parent indices. It will be interesting to see how these divergences play out because I could find no strong example where the markets have led the internals by such a large degree.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: BLDR was a Subscriber pick for April 23rd but failed to live up to its billing. The stock gapped into its stop price (and below its 200-day MA) on heavier volume for a 5% loss. KRG clipped its stop on a break of its 50-day MA. The April 12th Subscriber pick closed for a 5% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 25th: This rally just doesn't want to stop. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 followed the Dow and S&P with significant resistant breakouts and new closing highs for the year. The Russell 2000 did likewise, but gave up some of its gains by the close. The Dow and S&P were the biggest winners with another set of substantial gains. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day in all markets. It's looking all too easy for the markets. The Dow rallied so strongly it breached resistance of its (relatively) sharp rising channel. Its technicals are strong and improving so there is little going against it.

An interesting observation was the close for the NASDAQ on former channel support (December-February) now resistance. It is unlikely to provide strong resistance, but it is an resistance level. The NASDAQ 100 does not have this concern having long surpassed this potential resistance level. The other point of interest was the maintained bearish alignment for the markets {Large caps > Tech Indices > Small caps} - large cap leadership is something attributed to end-stage rallies, not fresh moves up. The Russell 2000 sits at an interesting junction. Large caps (Dow and S&P) are in need of a pullback of merit, such a pullback (when it comes) is likely to filter through to the other indices. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 have some wiggle room to maintain their breakouts, but weakness in the Russell 2000 would take it away from resistance and by doing so could compound selling for the other indices in a potential feedback loop.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: ANAD gapped against Tuesday's breakout closing the play for a 5% loss (although the order would never had filled). The two earlier Subscriber picks for February 14th and February 6th for a 4% and a 17% gain respectively.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 23rd: No change in the markets, but the big drop in volume will have kept the bulls happy. The only concern for the day was the bullish harami cross in volatility - often viewed as a strong reversal candlestick pair. With intermediate [39,1] and short term [14,3] stochastics oversold it could present itself in the markets as a sizable down day (for Tuesday). But, this is scratching the barrel for bears. Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] were little changed; modest gains in the $NASI and $BPCOMPQ and a small downtick in $NAA50.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 22nd Large caps swept to power but it came at the expense of a bearish alignment for markers {Large caps > Tech averages > Small caps}. There is still a chance for small caps to jump the order, but the significance of their step down on Friday somewhat overshadowed the big gains for the Dow and S&P. The other potential concern for bulls is the possible double top for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, aided by the backtest of weekly wedge support for volatility. If ever there was a time for calling a top, now could be it.

However, given the strength of large caps there is a strong possibility 2,534 and 1,847 resistance will be taken out with relative ease for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. In addition, tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] re-assumed their bullish alignment with the previously bearish $NAA50 climbing back above its 5-day EMA to re-align all three internals on a bullish course.

Given the potential mixed signals I have turned bearish for the 4-week projection Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll, in line with my now 7-month bearish tone for the long(er) term market picture. The March rally has surprised me with its strength and it doesn't pay to fight the market, but Friday's close placed the indices at a point where bears could fight back with confidence. If support from the rising (2-month) channels was breached it would be a cue to off-load current positions. The only index close to doing this is the Russell 2000 and this should be keenly watched over the next few days. Otherwise, stick with what you got should the Russell 2000, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 safely negotiate current resistance levels.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: GGBM was a Breakout for April 16th. The stock did consolidate around $3.50, but Friday saw additional weakness to take it into its stop for an 18% loss off the featured price.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 19th: Bulls felt a bit of a twinge as higher volume selling afflicted the NASDAQ for the third day in a row. This volume registered as accumulation for the NASDAQ 100 but the key points for both indices was continued support at April reaction highs and support from the rising channel. The index which could most be in trouble is the Russell 2000 as a third day of losses places the index at risk of a double top. However, it too was able to find support at its 2-month rising channel. Large caps (Dow and S&P) churned around Wednesday's highs after early losses failed to build into larger weakness. Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] were mixed with a loss for the $NAA50 to take it below the 5-day EMA (it is the most volatile of the tech market internals, but reacts closest to changes in the parent market) while in contrast the $BPCOMPQ closed higher. Net result, bulls hold court.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: NUAN cut below recent support to knock out its most stop. The April 18th Breakout closed for a 4% loss while the February 7th Subscriber pick closed for a 20% gain. SMSI was a Subscriber pick for March 28th but a downgrade sliced a large chunk off the share price to close the position for an 8% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 18th: Markets shuffled around Tuesday's closing levels with the semiconductor index bucking the action with strong gains of its own. The biggest change came in the relative strength between the indices with Large caps (Dow and S&P) jumping ahead of small caps (Russell 2000), which lie ahead of Tech indices (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100). This roundabout turn has given the markets are a more bearish tone, not helped by distribution level volumes for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. Only the S&P was able to close the day with higher volume accumulation. The Dow was an interesting sideshow in that it was only able to nick a break of 12,796 resistance by a few points after posting some nice gains in late afternoon trading.

Although Wednesday's tone was more bearish the overall trend remains positive with markets trading well inside the 2-month rising channels. Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] eased a little, but not enough to change their net bullish position. Although this is a market in rally mode, it is a mature rally and so a certain degree of skepticism should be assumed.

Target hit: CRWN was a Subscriber pick for January 18th, March 7th and April 11th. The target price was hit to close each position for a 52% gain, 47% gain, and a 18% gain respectively.

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 17th: Quiet trading helped digest Monday's gains. Only the Dow tacked on a decent number, part of a test of 52-week high resistance. I would look for this index to follow the others to new highs. Volume climbed across the board which may mean bearish churning for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, but was more in line with bullish accumulation for the S&P and definitely for the Dow. The tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] were a little conflicted with gains for the $NASI and $BPCOMPQ, but small losses for the $NAA50. Tuesday's price action should be considered good action for bulls.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: GBN was a breakout for April 13th but unfortunately it clipped its stop at the very intraday low in what looks to be a positive backtest of support. The play closed for a 6% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 16th: Another great day for the bulls. The lack of volume may actually work in their favor as there are still considerable bearish overtones with respect to market opinion and this may mean there is sideline money yet to join the fray. I don't think this a good stage to be putting money to work - better opportunities will avail themselves in the future even if they appear at points in the market which are higher than they are now. What of individual indices? The NASDAQ, Russell 2000, and S&P all pushed to new highs for the year - reinstating their October 2006 rallies and keeping bulls very much in control. The S&P registered a technical accumulation day, but future selling volume will say more about the strength of this rally as much as the relatively low volume buying markets have been enjoying. I have drawn in a new rising channel for the S&P, defined by the reaction low of March and the double lows of April, paralleled by the reaction high in March. Similar channels exist in the other markets and support from such channels will be key over the coming weeks.

The tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] remain in the bulls favor over the short term although the $NAA50 is getting a little rich based on prior resistance levels (see my $NAA50R chart in the newsletter).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: CHCG clipped its stop at the lows of Monday's 'hammer' candlestick. The March 9th Subscriber pick closed for a 14% loss. ALAN was a Subscriber pick for April 10th but undercut breakout support to hit its stop for a 11% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 15th: Bulls pushed their advantage with new reaction highs. The NASDAQ, Dow, Russell 2000, and S&P all performed strongly with the S&P tacking on additional gains to February's reaction highs, but the other indices fell short of closing their February breakdown gaps. The NASDAQ 100 lacked the point gain of the other indices, but was able to close on higher volume accumulation. The markets have switched to their most bullish alignment; small caps leading tech stocks which lead large caps. Look for the gaps to close in those indices which have failed to do so. Tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] all added gains but only the $NASI sits at historical overbought levels. The NYSE appears to be a lead index as it finished above February highs having returned all of February's losses - other indices should follow suit.

I remain short term bullish as per the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll but skeptical on positions to be held longer than a few days to a couple of weeks. The February correction didn't reach the deep oversold levels typical of strong bottoms. Another wave of selling to make new lows would appear necessary, but don't fight the trend.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 12th: Bulls went all out to reverse the damage done from Wednesday. Markets rallied across the board, but volume disappointed and the neutral position of short term [14,3] and intermediate term [39,1] stochastics weakened the various bullish piercing and engulfing patterns formed over the last two days. There was some good news for the Dow, Russell 2000, semiconductor index, and NASDAQ 100 as each pushed positive tests of their 50-day MAs. Institutional investors stepped in at the 50-day MA, but there was little follow through as markets moved away from this average. However, all indices were able to hold the sharp line of support connecting the three March and April reaction lows - another tick in the bull column. For the short term, markets march to close the February breakdown gaps. I am keeping my eye on the S&P to see if it can break above the highs of the February sell off.

The tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] were interesting in that the $NAA50 also made a picture perfect bounce off its sharp trendline of March-April support. The concern for this internal is the (potentially) large bearish divergence developing between its February peak and current level compared to the relative difference of the February high and current close in the NASDAQ; fewer stocks are partaking in this rally. The remaining two internals continued their advance. The $NASI, by climbing above the zero level, has entered a zone typical of tops in a market. However, it can continue to climb much higher from here with relative ease, just as it did in January of this year and October of last year.

Target hit: None

Stop hit:

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 11th: Bears stepped up to the plate to reverse recent gains on heavier volume (= distribution) to bring the NASDAQ, Russell 2000, Dow and S&P back to March reaction highs, and in the case of the Dow - the 50-day MA. Unfortunately, the NASDAQ 100 cut below March reaction highs and this is a bad omen for the aforementioned indices. Adding insult to injury was the bearish cross of the 5-day EMA for the $NAA50 (number of Nasdaq stocks above their 50-day ma), combined with a supporting 'sell' trigger of its ultimate oscillator. Weakness in this indicator pushed it back to test short term support connecting early and late March reaction lows - any downside on Thursday would break this support line.

This is a vulnerable time for the bulls. The S&P made it back to the open price of February's big sell off, only to drop away on heavier volume. Indices like the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have (so far) fallen short of closing their breakdown gaps from this day. Further weakness at this juncture would make this task even harder as another layer of resistance would be added (i.e. Tuesday's highs). My sample portfolio as hosted by Collective2 lost another two positions to bring my equity exposure down to 27% (it was 43% yesterday). I will not be adding new positions at this time until I see how this correction pans out.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: Armor Holdings (AH) edged below $67.91 support ending Tuesday's Breakout play. The stock featured as a Subscriber pick for January 10th and as Breakouts for March 22nd and April 3rd. The Subscriber pick closed for a 14% gain. The three Breakout picks closed for a 3% gain, 1% loss and a 2% loss respectively. Biolase Technology (BLTI) gapped down on disappointing earnings. The March 14th Breakout play closed for a 6% loss haven failed by $0.44 to reach its target price. Rochester Medical group (ROCM) was a pick for Tuesday. The stock reversed into its stop price to close Tuesday's pick for a 6% loss, the earlier March 20th play closed for a 9% gain.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 10th: Bulls increased the pressure with bullish engulfing patterns on higher volume (the gloss of the bullish engulfing pattern is weakened somewhat by the neutral position of intermediate and short term stochastics). More importantly, there were breaks in the MACD bearish divergence for the NASDAQ, Dow and S&P. There was also a MACD trigger 'buy' for the semiconductor index. Markets are well on their way to closing the February breakdown gaps. There were modest gains for the tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] but their technicals are still on the bearish side of neutral - an unusual situation given technicals often switch from one extreme to the other, but this hasn't been the case here.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 9th: A relatively bland day of trading considering it came off the back of a three-day weekend and a jobs report. Higher opens either traded flat (Dow and S&P) or lower (Russell 2000, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) into the close, with a modest increase in volume (not sure I would call it a distribution day - but it wasn't bullish action). Although volume did weaken, there was a resistance breakout in on-balance-volume for the S&P. The S&P also started to outperform against the Russell 2000 {Tech indices > Large caps > Small caps - neutral and weakening}. Other than that there was little to report. Even tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] finished quietly.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 8th: New closing highs on the week registered as fresh breakouts for the S&P, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. Volume was lacking but this was of no surprise given the long weekend. The Jobs report data released on Friday will likely jolt the markets out of the relatively tight trading from the previous two trading days.

There were a few technical changes. The bearish divergence of the NASDAQ 100 MACD trigger line was breached, suggesting either a new slower divergence, or an end to it altogether. There was also a resistance breakout for on-balance-volume in the same index and for the Dow. There was a bullish crossover in trend strength [+DI > -DI] for the NASDAQ, Dow and S&P.

I have maintained my bullish stance for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll based on recent technical strength, but if the markets were to break below their 50-day MAs on a closing basis it would likely signal another bull trap and a probable retest of March lows.

Target hit: RPTN nicked its target price at the high of Friday. The stock featured as a Breakout for March 7th and closed for a 58% gain.

Stop hit: OMRI featured as breakout for March 12th, but the prior three days of weakness were enough to hit the stop price for a 5% loss. RVSN featured as a Subscriber pick for March 23rd but suffered its seventh day of losses to bring the stock back to its 50-day MA, but also to its stop price for a 10% loss. LSI was a Subscriber pick for April 2nd, but tight trading on Friday was not enough to prevent it from striking its stop price for a 5% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 4th: After Tuesday's solid gains it was back to the quiet trading which started the week. The Dow drifted in terms of relative strength to the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 {Tech averages > Small caps > Large caps; indicating an improving market}. The Dow also registered a breakout in on-balance-volume. The semiconductor index saw sufficient gains to close above its 50-day MA while the tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] saw a bearish turn in the $BPCOMPQ reversed to the upside (a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA). Bulls continue strengthening the market internals, how long can they keep this up?

Target hit: None

Stop hit: ATEC was a Breakout play for February 26th but the stock failed to build on its break of $4.47 resistance, moving through its 50-day MA. The stock closed for a 13% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 3rd: Bulls were woken from their slumber with some impressive gains. Where only the Russell 2000 fluttered around its 50-day MA, now all indices pushed through this important average on higher volume (= bullish accumulation). The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 didn't do enough to close at a new reaction high, but the Russell 2000 and Dow did enough to bring the February breakdown gap and/or February highs back on the radar. The Russell 2000 also broke through its 2-month declining channel. A breakout in on-balance-volume for the Dow helped confirm its price break. There are still bearish issues, notably the 5-month bearish divergences in the MACD trigger lines of the various indices. The only index to suffer (a little) was the semiconductor index. It struggled to build off its bounce from the rising channel, ending the day below the 50-day MA.

The tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] continued to battle between the bulls and bears. Yesterday bears toyed with the $BPCOMPQ, today bulls took the honors with the new closing high and resistance breakout in the $NAA50.

Target hit: NIHK hit its target price yesterday to close the March 30th play for a 60% gain.

Stop hit: ALJ closed the day on a small bullish hammer on slightly higher volume. It looks like the consolidation hasn't played itself out given neither short term [14,3] or intermediate term [39,1] stochastics are oversold. The March 21st Subscriber pick closed for a 6% gain. The later March 30th Subscriber pick closed for a 3% loss. GEMS is a long standing Subscriber pick from August 15th, but the stock failed to make progress and in the last couple of months has suffered an extended decline to hit its stop for an 8% loss.

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.April 2nd: Blah Blah! The short Easter week is unlikely to deliver much excitement after Monday's dull action. The "W"-bottom support held on third successive tests for the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and Dow. The Russell 2000 made a minor gain off its 50-day MA, but is hemmed in by newly drawn channel resistance (see my Stockchart Public list by following the link). The S&P finished a shade below its 50-day MA, but is well above "W"-bottom support. The semiconductor index was the most interesting as it continued its picture perfect test of its modest rising channel. The tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] saw a bearish cross of the 5-day EMA in the $BPCOMPQ, but it was a relatively minor turn of weakness given the neutral territory this indicator occupies. Even volatility couldn't muster anything.

If you haven't already, take the week off!

Target hit: None

Stop hit: BDCO crashed below its March 29th stop price after pushing through but reversing under $4.44 resistance. The March 29th breakout closed for a 12% loss. The February 23rd Subscriber pick closed for a 1% loss. CRIS clipped its stop on a broad intraday swing, but the 50-day MA held as support. The March 26th Subscriber pick closed for a 10% loss.

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