Fallond homepage

User id: member email. Password: gold

August 20th: Neutral finish to the day with slightly higher volume. The NASDAQ stopped at rising support from July lows while the NASDAQ 100 clung on to its 200-day MA. The semiconductor index held on to the 50-day MA but it remained contained by the neckline of the double bottom. The Dow saw modest gains, but not enough to regain the 50-day MA or prevent the MACD trigger 'sell'. The S&P also managed modest gains but without the 'sell' trigger in the MACD which affected the Dow. The Russell 2000 was less fortunate as its upside move touched on but did not break former July trendline support. This is current resistance. A MACD trigger 'sell' will likely hit this index tomorrow.

As outlined in my blog post, Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] are up against May 2008 highs and therefore resistance. The breadth indicators have not approached bear market top levels, so breadth indicators could easily bust past May highs. However, the NASDAQ has not made it close to May highs. It remains unclear how this negative divergence will play out, but on first view it is not positive for the NASDAQ.

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

August 19th: The added downside was no surprise, neither was the higher volume as those traders still around realized they were on the wrong side of the trade. The retest of July lows is well underway for the Dow and S&P, although support remains for the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000. The NASDAQ is in the dead zone between the 50-day and 200-day MAs; watch for non-committal sideways action as participants wait for break of one or other moving average. The NASDAQ 100 was able to hold 200-day MA support and remains the strongest of the tech averages, but it's debatable if it can hold current levels. The semiconductor index failed to break through the 200-day MA and looks to be struggling at its 50-day MA. Its double bottom neckline support failed, leaving a bull trap in its place; bull and bear traps frequently result in moves to the opposite side of the pattern - in this case July lows. The Dow and S&P more or less look on course to go all the way back to July lows; moving averages are bearish and there is little support between here and there for them to lean on (other than minor reaction lows in late July). The Russell 2000 gave up sharply angled support from July lows (no real surprise here) and is fast approaching its 200-day MA.

Nasdaq breadth indicators [$NASI, $NAA50R and $BPCOMPQ] slowed their advances, but no bearish crosses of 5-day EMAs (although the indicators had not updated at time of writing; the percentage of stocks above the 50-day MA likely crossed below its 5-day EMA Tuesday).

Target hit: None

Stop hit: None

Declan Fallon

Stockchart public list - updated daily - please remember to vote! Scroll down page after clicking on the link and click "Vote for It!".

Mahalo!

April04, May04, June04, July04, August04, September04, October04, November04, December04, January05, February05, March05, April05, May05, June05, July05, August05, September05, October05, November05, December05, January06, February06, March06, April06, May06, June06, July 06, August06, September06, October06, November06, December06, January07, February07, March07, April07, May07, June07, July07, August07, September07, October07, November 07, December 07, January08, February08, March08, April08, May08, June08, July08, August08 updates.

Disclaimer

The information found on the Fallond Stock Picks Inc. website (www.fallondpicks.com) has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any information in this site without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by Fallond Stock Picks Inc. or any of its employees, Fallond Stock Picks Inc. makes no representations or warranties or takes any responsibility as to the accuracy of completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. accepts no liability to the recipient whatsoever whether in contract, in tort, for negligence, or otherwise for any direct or consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use of the information provided on this website, or of the recipient relying on any such recommendation or information (except insofar as any statutory liability cannot be excluded). Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice. Fallond Stock Picks Inc., or their respective affiliates or their officers, directors, analysts, or employees may have positions in securities referred to herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities mentioned herein. This document does not purport to be a complete description of the securities market or developments to which reference is made. There may be instances when fundamental, technical, and quantitative opinions may not be in concert. There are risks inherent in all investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain persons. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange, rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. and their affiliates make no representation that the companies which issue securities which are the subject of their research reports are subject to, or in compliance with certain informational reporting requirements imposed by the Securities Exchange act of 1934. Sales of securities or services covered in any report or on the web site may be made in only those jurisdictions where such securities or services and Fallond Stock Picks Inc. are qualified for solicitation. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. does not warrant, represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information, content, advertisements, or Third Party Sites and Content (as defined below) (collectively, the "Materials") contained on, distributed through, or linked, downloaded or accessed from Fallondpicks.com, nor the quality of any products, information, or other materials displayed, purchased, or obtained by you as a result of an advertisement or any other information or offer on or in connection with Fallond Stock Picks Inc. You acknowledge that any use of or reliance upon any Materials shall be at your sole risk. Fallond Stock Picks Inc. reserves the right, in its sole discretion and without any obligation, to make modifications to any portion of the Fallondpicks.com web site or publications at any time. You acknowledge and agree that you bear responsibility for your own investment research and investment decisions, and that Fallond Stock Picks Inc. shall not be held liable by you or any others for any decision made or action taken by you or others based upon reliance on or use of information or materials obtained or accessed through use of Fallondpicks.com. Prior to any transaction in securities, you should consult with a qualified professional securities or financial advisor.